Relegation watch

[Ghost of Clough]

22 minutes ago, Coconut said:

 

What about if you take out points gained from CKR & Gregory's goals?

We'd only be 5 points worse off

[Ghost of Clough]

21 minutes ago, FindernRam said:

What about the EFL points deduction looming...Can they do that this season now? After all they appealed a decision that was not supposed to be appealable!

If, in the extremely unlikely scenario of a points deduction, the deduction would only apply to next season.

[Geoff Parkstone]

I imagine they will wait and see - if we escape relegation by less than 6 points they will seek to impose the points deduction (if they win the appeal) this season and thus relegate us.  If we escape by more than 6 they will impose a points deduction in 21-22 as that way would hurt more; equally if we are in the relegation places already by the end of the season they will hold the penalty over so we start at minus 6 in the lower division.

Alternatively they may just wait to see the positions after 46 games and apply however many points are need to relegate us

Or am I being too pessimistic here

[erathirea]

Not posted much in a while, but I do love some good stats.

Systematic approach.

Our maximum possible points is 58. So currently, Norwich, Watford, Swansea, Brentford, Bournemouth, Barnsley, Reading, Cardiff are "safe". Our worst case scenario is therefore them all to lose ALL their remaining games (except when playing each other, because those results don't matter for the purpose of this).

If you do that, then that pushes some more teams about 58 points. Millwall, QPR, and Luton, to be exact. So, then we assume they lose ALL of their remaining games (apart from the ones where they beat the current top 8).

Now 3 more teams are "safe" - Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Stoke. So repeat the process...

(remember, this is *literally* the worst case scenario for Derby - teams below 58 points are picking up points against teams above 58 points only) 

Once you repeat the process, no more teams *automatically* go above Derby.

So now we look for other "worst case scenarios". 

If you put the results in as I've described, the bottom of the championship looks like this:

15 Derby County 46 58

16 Rotherham United 43 54 (max theoretically 63)

17 Preston North End 44  54 (max theoretically 60)

18 Nottingham Forest 42 52 (max theoretically 64)

19 Coventry City 43 51 (max theoretically 60)

20 Huddersfield Town 43 50 (max theoretically 59)

21 Birmingham City 43 48 (max theoretically 57)

22 Wycombe Wanderers 46 48 (max 48)

23 Blackburn Rovers 42 47 (max theoretically 59)

24 Sheffield Wednesday 44 41 (max theoretically 47)

So there's 3 teams that, in this situation, we *guarantee* finish below us   (because we beat Birmingham).

 

I wanted to take it a step further, though. It's almost impossible in this scenario for Wednesday to catch us - even if we lose *to* them, we'd need to lose at least 2 other games). 

So our worst case scenario therefore should assume they have gone. So if they lose their other 2 games, that benefits other teams in the bottom few. Wycombe have also gone, despite wins against some good teams.

 

We already know Derby are safe if they win all their remaining games. Let's put Birmingham to one side, and talk about 2 other teams- Huddersfield and Birmingham. For them to finish above us in this scenario, they BOTH need to win *all* their remaining games. They *can't*, because they have to play each other.

Coventry would need at least 7 points, but they have to play Huddersfield too. In fact, there is no combination of results that leaves many of these teams ahead of us - Preston need 4 points from 2 games, but need to take points off Coventry to do it..

 

So let's adjust our view - what if we lose the worst possible game- to Birmingham?

This scenario immediately makes things more dicey, and puts Forest safe (55 points in this playthrough). So they lose their other 3 games, putting Preston safe in the process, who subsequently lose their other remaining game. Bottom of the table now looks like this:

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Birmingham City 44 54

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Blackburn Rovers 43 50

With 6 games to decide it:

Rotherham v Coventry, Rotherham v Birmingham, Blackburn v Hudd, Hudd v Coventry, Rotherham v Blackburn, Blackburn v Birmingham.

Rotherham v Coventry v Huddersfield v Blackburn v Birmingham v Rotherham again, allows all 5 of those to win a game, with Blackburn having a spare game against Rotherham to pick up the win they need. - very contrived, but possible (any draw, by the way, guarantees at least one team to finish level on points with us.

 

SO- Don't Lose to Birmingham!

But what if we draw with BIrmingham?

In this scenario, Birmingham need 7 points to draw level with us - given their inferior GD (and that they aren't making it up by thrashing us), they realistically need 3 wins, against Rotherham, Blackburn and Forest. Blackburn then need to win their last 2 games to draw level with us, against Rotherham and Huddersfield. 

This combination of results would put Blackburn level with us, Birmingham ahead of us... but this leaves Rotherham needing 1 win from 1 and Huddersfield winning 2 from 2... meaning Coventry lose 2 of theirs and they can then NOT catch us.

 

SO- Drawing with Birmingham means we're safe.

 

Final scenario - what if we beat Birmingham, but lose to Blackburn (losing to Blackburn being *slightly* worse than losing to Preston.

This immediately makes Forest and Preston safe (as discussed previously).

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Blackburn Rovers 43 53

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Birmingham City 44 51

Birmingham need 4 points from 2 games to draw level. Let's start by going with 2 wins, against  Blackburn and Rotherham. 

All 4 remaining teams need a win, which is, unfortunately, possible, as they are playing each other in such a combination that a round robin of wins is possible, albeit convoluted.

 

So, in summary. If we win all remaining games, we're safe. If we win 4 and draw with Brum, we're safe. If we do anything else, we're not mathematically safe.

 

 

 

 

 

[Premier ram]

5 minutes ago, erathirea said:

Not posted much in a while, but I do love some good stats.

Systematic approach.

Our maximum possible points is 58. So currently, Norwich, Watford, Swansea, Brentford, Bournemouth, Barnsley, Reading, Cardiff are "safe". Our worst case scenario is therefore them all to lose ALL their remaining games (except when playing each other, because those results don't matter for the purpose of this).

If you do that, then that pushes some more teams about 58 points. Millwall, QPR, and Luton, to be exact. So, then we assume they lose ALL of their remaining games (apart from the ones where they beat the current top 8).

Now 3 more teams are "safe" - Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Stoke. So repeat the process...

(remember, this is *literally* the worst case scenario for Derby - teams below 58 points are picking up points against teams above 58 points only) 

Once you repeat the process, no more teams *automatically* go above Derby.

So now we look for other "worst case scenarios". 

If you put the results in as I've described, the bottom of the championship looks like this:

15 Derby County 46 58

16 Rotherham United 43 54 (max theoretically 63)

17 Preston North End 44  54 (max theoretically 60)

18 Nottingham Forest 42 52 (max theoretically 64)

19 Coventry City 43 51 (max theoretically 60)

20 Huddersfield Town 43 50 (max theoretically 59)

21 Birmingham City 43 48 (max theoretically 57)

22 Wycombe Wanderers 46 48 (max 48)

23 Blackburn Rovers 42 47 (max theoretically 59)

24 Sheffield Wednesday 44 41 (max theoretically 47)

So there's 3 teams that, in this situation, we *guarantee* finish below us   (because we beat Birmingham).

 

I wanted to take it a step further, though. It's almost impossible in this scenario for Wednesday to catch us - even if we lose *to* them, we'd need to lose at least 2 other games). 

So our worst case scenario therefore should assume they have gone. So if they lose their other 2 games, that benefits other teams in the bottom few. Wycombe have also gone, despite wins against some good teams.

 

We already know Derby are safe if they win all their remaining games. Let's put Birmingham to one side, and talk about 2 other teams- Huddersfield and Birmingham. For them to finish above us in this scenario, they BOTH need to win *all* their remaining games. They *can't*, because they have to play each other.

Coventry would need at least 7 points, but they have to play Huddersfield too. In fact, there is no combination of results that leaves many of these teams ahead of us - Preston need 4 points from 2 games, but need to take points off Coventry to do it..

 

So let's adjust our view - what if we lose the worst possible game- to Birmingham?

This scenario immediately makes things more dicey, and puts Forest safe (55 points in this playthrough). So they lose their other 3 games, putting Preston safe in the process, who subsequently lose their other remaining game. Bottom of the table now looks like this:

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Birmingham City 44 54

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Blackburn Rovers 43 50

With 6 games to decide it:

Rotherham v Coventry, Rotherham v Birmingham, Blackburn v Hudd, Hudd v Coventry, Rotherham v Blackburn, Blackburn v Birmingham.

Rotherham v Coventry v Huddersfield v Blackburn v Birmingham v Rotherham again, allows all 5 of those to win a game, with Blackburn having a spare game against Rotherham to pick up the win they need. - very contrived, but possible (any draw, by the way, guarantees at least one team to finish level on points with us.

 

SO- Don't Lose to Birmingham!

But what if we draw with BIrmingham?

In this scenario, Birmingham need 7 points to draw level with us - given their inferior GD (and that they aren't making it up by thrashing us), they realistically need 3 wins, against Rotherham, Blackburn and Forest. Blackburn then need to win their last 2 games to draw level with us, against Rotherham and Huddersfield. 

This combination of results would put Blackburn level with us, Birmingham ahead of us... but this leaves Rotherham needing 1 win from 1 and Huddersfield winning 2 from 2... meaning Coventry lose 2 of theirs and they can then NOT catch us.

 

SO- Drawing with Birmingham means we're safe.

 

Final scenario - what if we beat Birmingham, but lose to Blackburn (losing to Blackburn being *slightly* worse than losing to Preston.

This immediately makes Forest and Preston safe (as discussed previously).

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Blackburn Rovers 43 53

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Birmingham City 44 51

Birmingham need 4 points from 2 games to draw level. Let's start by going with 2 wins, against  Blackburn and Rotherham. 

All 4 remaining teams need a win, which is, unfortunately, possible, as they are playing each other in such a combination that a round robin of wins is possible, albeit convoluted.

 

So, in summary. If we win all remaining games, we're safe. If we win 4 and draw with Brum, we're safe. If we do anything else, we're not mathematically safe.

 

 

 

 

 

My head hurts , how about we all calm down and take it one match at a time

[Gone]

7 minutes ago, erathirea said:

Not posted much in a while, but I do love some good stats.

Systematic approach.

Our maximum possible points is 58. So currently, Norwich, Watford, Swansea, Brentford, Bournemouth, Barnsley, Reading, Cardiff are "safe". Our worst case scenario is therefore them all to lose ALL their remaining games (except when playing each other, because those results don't matter for the purpose of this).

If you do that, then that pushes some more teams about 58 points. Millwall, QPR, and Luton, to be exact. So, then we assume they lose ALL of their remaining games (apart from the ones where they beat the current top 8).

Now 3 more teams are "safe" - Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Stoke. So repeat the process...

(remember, this is *literally* the worst case scenario for Derby - teams below 58 points are picking up points against teams above 58 points only) 

Once you repeat the process, no more teams *automatically* go above Derby.

So now we look for other "worst case scenarios". 

If you put the results in as I've described, the bottom of the championship looks like this:

15 Derby County 46 58

16 Rotherham United 43 54 (max theoretically 63)

17 Preston North End 44  54 (max theoretically 60)

18 Nottingham Forest 42 52 (max theoretically 64)

19 Coventry City 43 51 (max theoretically 60)

20 Huddersfield Town 43 50 (max theoretically 59)

21 Birmingham City 43 48 (max theoretically 57)

22 Wycombe Wanderers 46 48 (max 48)

23 Blackburn Rovers 42 47 (max theoretically 59)

24 Sheffield Wednesday 44 41 (max theoretically 47)

So there's 3 teams that, in this situation, we *guarantee* finish below us   (because we beat Birmingham).

 

I wanted to take it a step further, though. It's almost impossible in this scenario for Wednesday to catch us - even if we lose *to* them, we'd need to lose at least 2 other games). 

So our worst case scenario therefore should assume they have gone. So if they lose their other 2 games, that benefits other teams in the bottom few. Wycombe have also gone, despite wins against some good teams.

 

We already know Derby are safe if they win all their remaining games. Let's put Birmingham to one side, and talk about 2 other teams- Huddersfield and Birmingham. For them to finish above us in this scenario, they BOTH need to win *all* their remaining games. They *can't*, because they have to play each other.

Coventry would need at least 7 points, but they have to play Huddersfield too. In fact, there is no combination of results that leaves many of these teams ahead of us - Preston need 4 points from 2 games, but need to take points off Coventry to do it..

 

So let's adjust our view - what if we lose the worst possible game- to Birmingham?

This scenario immediately makes things more dicey, and puts Forest safe (55 points in this playthrough). So they lose their other 3 games, putting Preston safe in the process, who subsequently lose their other remaining game. Bottom of the table now looks like this:

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Birmingham City 44 54

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Blackburn Rovers 43 50

With 6 games to decide it:

Rotherham v Coventry, Rotherham v Birmingham, Blackburn v Hudd, Hudd v Coventry, Rotherham v Blackburn, Blackburn v Birmingham.

Rotherham v Coventry v Huddersfield v Blackburn v Birmingham v Rotherham again, allows all 5 of those to win a game, with Blackburn having a spare game against Rotherham to pick up the win they need. - very contrived, but possible (any draw, by the way, guarantees at least one team to finish level on points with us.

 

SO- Don't Lose to Birmingham!

But what if we draw with BIrmingham?

In this scenario, Birmingham need 7 points to draw level with us - given their inferior GD (and that they aren't making it up by thrashing us), they realistically need 3 wins, against Rotherham, Blackburn and Forest. Blackburn then need to win their last 2 games to draw level with us, against Rotherham and Huddersfield. 

This combination of results would put Blackburn level with us, Birmingham ahead of us... but this leaves Rotherham needing 1 win from 1 and Huddersfield winning 2 from 2... meaning Coventry lose 2 of theirs and they can then NOT catch us.

 

SO- Drawing with Birmingham means we're safe.

 

Final scenario - what if we beat Birmingham, but lose to Blackburn (losing to Blackburn being *slightly* worse than losing to Preston.

This immediately makes Forest and Preston safe (as discussed previously).

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Blackburn Rovers 43 53

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Birmingham City 44 51

Birmingham need 4 points from 2 games to draw level. Let's start by going with 2 wins, against  Blackburn and Rotherham. 

All 4 remaining teams need a win, which is, unfortunately, possible, as they are playing each other in such a combination that a round robin of wins is possible, albeit convoluted.

 

So, in summary. If we win all remaining games, we're safe. If we win 4 and draw with Brum, we're safe. If we do anything else, we're not mathematically safe.

 

 

 

 

 

Get all that, but will we stay up? 

[kash_a_ram_a_ding_dong]

1 hour ago, RoyMac5 said:

Yeah we should start someone else besides CKR for a start!

Bit of a mare isn't it Roy and I don't mean to be down on Wayne,I'm hoping he comes good as much as anyone.

If we can just hang on in this division until next year,he can demonstrate his ability as a manager without one arm tied behind his back (hopefully)

If not get the man with the hair Island down from the stands ?

[IslandExile]

1 hour ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

With Bielik (including Bristol City where he was injured again) 

P12 W6 D3 L3... Ppg 1.75

Without Bielik 

P29 W5 D6 L18... Ppg 0.72

 

Thanks @Van der MoodHoover.

That is some difference, eh?

And didn't someone say that when Cocu left we had 8 points from 11 games?

8/11 = 0.73 ppg

?

[RoyMac5]

22 minutes ago, kash_a_ram_a_ding_dong said:

Bit of a mare isn't it Roy and I don't mean to be down on Wayne, I'm hoping he comes good as much as anyone.

If we can just hang on in this division until next year, he can demonstrate his ability as a manager without one arm tied behind his back (hopefully)

If not get the man with the hair Island down from the stands ?

Well either he's more of a draw than Cocu or Cocu was too choosy, but Rooney got Gregory in (no doubt thinking he'd be enough with CKR and Waghorn - ha!) and 4 others to 'bolster' the squad. And still we're paper thin. 

I'm hoping that with someone in charge of the club who doesn't insist on playing youth (who mostly aren't ready to be 1st choices) and a good preseason and Rooney's 'attraction' we'll have a real good go next season. Just losing Bielik (and Gregory even) has made such a difference. If we have a better balanced squad next season then I think Wayne can work around 'problems' and we'll be a force.

I mean we even did enough against Norwich to believe that with a couple of fit strikers we could do so much more. #COYR

Edited April 14, 2021 by RoyMac5

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, Geoff Parkstone said:

I imagine they will wait and see - if we escape relegation by less than 6 points they will seek to impose the points deduction (if they win the appeal) this season and thus relegate us.  If we escape by more than 6 they will impose a points deduction in 21-22 as that way would hurt more; equally if we are in the relegation places already by the end of the season they will hold the penalty over so we start at minus 6 in the lower division.

Alternatively they may just wait to see the positions after 46 games and apply however many points are need to relegate us

Or am I being too pessimistic here

I’m pretty sure I’ve read that any points deductions have to be applied before the third week in March so, it won’t be this season.

[Mucker1884]

1 hour ago, erathirea said:

Not posted much in a while, but I do love some good stats.

Systematic approach.

Our maximum possible points is 58. So currently, Norwich, Watford, Swansea, Brentford, Bournemouth, Barnsley, Reading, Cardiff are "safe". Our worst case scenario is therefore them all to lose ALL their remaining games (except when playing each other, because those results don't matter for the purpose of this).

If you do that, then that pushes some more teams about 58 points. Millwall, QPR, and Luton, to be exact. So, then we assume they lose ALL of their remaining games (apart from the ones where they beat the current top 8).

Now 3 more teams are "safe" - Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Stoke. So repeat the process...

(remember, this is *literally* the worst case scenario for Derby - teams below 58 points are picking up points against teams above 58 points only) 

Once you repeat the process, no more teams *automatically* go above Derby.

So now we look for other "worst case scenarios". 

If you put the results in as I've described, the bottom of the championship looks like this:

15 Derby County 46 58

16 Rotherham United 43 54 (max theoretically 63)

17 Preston North End 44  54 (max theoretically 60)

18 Nottingham Forest 42 52 (max theoretically 64)

19 Coventry City 43 51 (max theoretically 60)

20 Huddersfield Town 43 50 (max theoretically 59)

21 Birmingham City 43 48 (max theoretically 57)

22 Wycombe Wanderers 46 48 (max 48)

23 Blackburn Rovers 42 47 (max theoretically 59)

24 Sheffield Wednesday 44 41 (max theoretically 47)

So there's 3 teams that, in this situation, we *guarantee* finish below us   (because we beat Birmingham).

 

I wanted to take it a step further, though. It's almost impossible in this scenario for Wednesday to catch us - even if we lose *to* them, we'd need to lose at least 2 other games). 

So our worst case scenario therefore should assume they have gone. So if they lose their other 2 games, that benefits other teams in the bottom few. Wycombe have also gone, despite wins against some good teams.

 

We already know Derby are safe if they win all their remaining games. Let's put Birmingham to one side, and talk about 2 other teams- Huddersfield and Birmingham. For them to finish above us in this scenario, they BOTH need to win *all* their remaining games. They *can't*, because they have to play each other.

Coventry would need at least 7 points, but they have to play Huddersfield too. In fact, there is no combination of results that leaves many of these teams ahead of us - Preston need 4 points from 2 games, but need to take points off Coventry to do it..

 

So let's adjust our view - what if we lose the worst possible game- to Birmingham?

This scenario immediately makes things more dicey, and puts Forest safe (55 points in this playthrough). So they lose their other 3 games, putting Preston safe in the process, who subsequently lose their other remaining game. Bottom of the table now looks like this:

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Birmingham City 44 54

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Blackburn Rovers 43 50

With 6 games to decide it:

Rotherham v Coventry, Rotherham v Birmingham, Blackburn v Hudd, Hudd v Coventry, Rotherham v Blackburn, Blackburn v Birmingham.

Rotherham v Coventry v Huddersfield v Blackburn v Birmingham v Rotherham again, allows all 5 of those to win a game, with Blackburn having a spare game against Rotherham to pick up the win they need. - very contrived, but possible (any draw, by the way, guarantees at least one team to finish level on points with us.

 

SO- Don't Lose to Birmingham!

But what if we draw with BIrmingham?

In this scenario, Birmingham need 7 points to draw level with us - given their inferior GD (and that they aren't making it up by thrashing us), they realistically need 3 wins, against Rotherham, Blackburn and Forest. Blackburn then need to win their last 2 games to draw level with us, against Rotherham and Huddersfield. 

This combination of results would put Blackburn level with us, Birmingham ahead of us... but this leaves Rotherham needing 1 win from 1 and Huddersfield winning 2 from 2... meaning Coventry lose 2 of theirs and they can then NOT catch us.

 

SO- Drawing with Birmingham means we're safe.

 

Final scenario - what if we beat Birmingham, but lose to Blackburn (losing to Blackburn being *slightly* worse than losing to Preston.

This immediately makes Forest and Preston safe (as discussed previously).

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Blackburn Rovers 43 53

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Birmingham City 44 51

Birmingham need 4 points from 2 games to draw level. Let's start by going with 2 wins, against  Blackburn and Rotherham. 

All 4 remaining teams need a win, which is, unfortunately, possible, as they are playing each other in such a combination that a round robin of wins is possible, albeit convoluted.

 

So, in summary. If we win all remaining games, we're safe. If we win 4 and draw with Brum, we're safe. If we do anything else, we're not mathematically safe.

 

 

Don't see why you haven't posted in a while... it only takes a second or two!  ? ?

[Yani P]

1 hour ago, IslandExile said:

Thanks @Van der MoodHoover.

That is some difference, eh?

And didn't someone say that when Cocu left we had 8 points from 11 games?

8/11 = 0.73 ppg

?

6 points from 11 so 0.544

Edited April 14, 2021 by Yani P

[Jimbo Ram]

2 hours ago, erathirea said:

Not posted much in a while, but I do love some good stats.

Systematic approach.

Our maximum possible points is 58. So currently, Norwich, Watford, Swansea, Brentford, Bournemouth, Barnsley, Reading, Cardiff are "safe". Our worst case scenario is therefore them all to lose ALL their remaining games (except when playing each other, because those results don't matter for the purpose of this).

If you do that, then that pushes some more teams about 58 points. Millwall, QPR, and Luton, to be exact. So, then we assume they lose ALL of their remaining games (apart from the ones where they beat the current top 8).

Now 3 more teams are "safe" - Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Stoke. So repeat the process...

(remember, this is *literally* the worst case scenario for Derby - teams below 58 points are picking up points against teams above 58 points only) 

Once you repeat the process, no more teams *automatically* go above Derby.

So now we look for other "worst case scenarios". 

If you put the results in as I've described, the bottom of the championship looks like this:

15 Derby County 46 58

16 Rotherham United 43 54 (max theoretically 63)

17 Preston North End 44  54 (max theoretically 60)

18 Nottingham Forest 42 52 (max theoretically 64)

19 Coventry City 43 51 (max theoretically 60)

20 Huddersfield Town 43 50 (max theoretically 59)

21 Birmingham City 43 48 (max theoretically 57)

22 Wycombe Wanderers 46 48 (max 48)

23 Blackburn Rovers 42 47 (max theoretically 59)

24 Sheffield Wednesday 44 41 (max theoretically 47)

So there's 3 teams that, in this situation, we *guarantee* finish below us   (because we beat Birmingham).

 

I wanted to take it a step further, though. It's almost impossible in this scenario for Wednesday to catch us - even if we lose *to* them, we'd need to lose at least 2 other games). 

So our worst case scenario therefore should assume they have gone. So if they lose their other 2 games, that benefits other teams in the bottom few. Wycombe have also gone, despite wins against some good teams.

 

We already know Derby are safe if they win all their remaining games. Let's put Birmingham to one side, and talk about 2 other teams- Huddersfield and Birmingham. For them to finish above us in this scenario, they BOTH need to win *all* their remaining games. They *can't*, because they have to play each other.

Coventry would need at least 7 points, but they have to play Huddersfield too. In fact, there is no combination of results that leaves many of these teams ahead of us - Preston need 4 points from 2 games, but need to take points off Coventry to do it..

 

So let's adjust our view - what if we lose the worst possible game- to Birmingham?

This scenario immediately makes things more dicey, and puts Forest safe (55 points in this playthrough). So they lose their other 3 games, putting Preston safe in the process, who subsequently lose their other remaining game. Bottom of the table now looks like this:

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Birmingham City 44 54

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Blackburn Rovers 43 50

With 6 games to decide it:

Rotherham v Coventry, Rotherham v Birmingham, Blackburn v Hudd, Hudd v Coventry, Rotherham v Blackburn, Blackburn v Birmingham.

Rotherham v Coventry v Huddersfield v Blackburn v Birmingham v Rotherham again, allows all 5 of those to win a game, with Blackburn having a spare game against Rotherham to pick up the win they need. - very contrived, but possible (any draw, by the way, guarantees at least one team to finish level on points with us.

 

SO- Don't Lose to Birmingham!

But what if we draw with BIrmingham?

In this scenario, Birmingham need 7 points to draw level with us - given their inferior GD (and that they aren't making it up by thrashing us), they realistically need 3 wins, against Rotherham, Blackburn and Forest. Blackburn then need to win their last 2 games to draw level with us, against Rotherham and Huddersfield. 

This combination of results would put Blackburn level with us, Birmingham ahead of us... but this leaves Rotherham needing 1 win from 1 and Huddersfield winning 2 from 2... meaning Coventry lose 2 of theirs and they can then NOT catch us.

 

SO- Drawing with Birmingham means we're safe.

 

Final scenario - what if we beat Birmingham, but lose to Blackburn (losing to Blackburn being *slightly* worse than losing to Preston.

This immediately makes Forest and Preston safe (as discussed previously).

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Blackburn Rovers 43 53

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Birmingham City 44 51

Birmingham need 4 points from 2 games to draw level. Let's start by going with 2 wins, against  Blackburn and Rotherham. 

All 4 remaining teams need a win, which is, unfortunately, possible, as they are playing each other in such a combination that a round robin of wins is possible, albeit convoluted.

 

So, in summary. If we win all remaining games, we're safe. If we win 4 and draw with Brum, we're safe. If we do anything else, we're not mathematically safe.

 

 

 

 

 

Yep, I am confident that we will continue our good form and win all 5 remaining games ?

[Rampage]

On 13/04/2021 at 12:06, Leeds Ram said:

No, because a hole in one is a one off event that might happen once or twice in someone's life if they play golf for years, not a run in form that can be expected consistently.  Putting together a run of points of 8 in 5 after they have just got 7 from 5 is akin to if they've had a run of 4 holes and and got to -1 then in the next 5 they can maybe get to -2 or -3. 

I played a guy on a par 3 eighteen hole course who told me that he had scored 19 holes in one. He played two rounds a day pretty much every day. He was so close so often that after nine holes, I believed that he had indeed scored 19 holes in one.

[Ghost of Clough]

4 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

Well either he's more of a draw than Cocu or Cocu was too choosy, but Rooney got Gregory in (no doubt thinking he'd be enough with CKR and Waghorn - ha!) and 4 others to 'bolster' the squad. And still we're paper thin. 

I'm hoping that with someone in charge of the club who doesn't insist on playing youth (who mostly aren't ready to be 1st choices) and a good preseason and Rooney's 'attraction' we'll have a real good go next season. Just losing Bielik (and Gregory even) has made such a difference. If we have a better balanced squad next season then I think Wayne can work around 'problems' and we'll be a force.

I mean we even did enough against Norwich to believe that with a couple of fit strikers we could do so much more. #COYR

He chose to sell Evans, te Wierik Holmes and Whittaker so the sqaud was only 1 man stronger overall. As we were struggling to pay the wages, our business was clearly restricted to loans, whereas a player or two would have had to be sold to pay said wages. Not much Rooney could do about that.

[TigerTedd]

7 hours ago, Nuwtfly said:

I think steering us this close to relegation after 28+ games is a sackable offence, regardless of whether we scrape by or not.

Relying on Rotherham to not win games? What on earth has gone wrong with this great club.

If Darren Wassall had taken over instead of former England and Manchester United striker Wayne Rooney, and achieved the exact same in the same amount of time, I think the calls for his head would be a lot louder, personally.

Behave. His record since he took over is actually no worse than Hughton’s at forest. It’s not great, but it’s not Rooney that out us in this position. The man who did has already got sacked.

We effectively gave ourselves a points deduction at the start of this season, and Rooney has had to contend with that. 

[Jimbo Ram]

17 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Behave. His record since he took over is actually no worse than Hughton’s at forest. It’s not great, but it’s not Rooney that out us in this position. The man who did has already got sacked.

We effectively gave ourselves a points deduction at the start of this season, and Rooney has had to contend with that. 

He has had a lot to deal with that’s for sure.

[kevinhectoring]

1 hour ago, Rampage said:

I played a guy on a par 3 eighteen hole course who told me that he had scored 19 holes in one. He played two rounds a day pretty much every day. He was so close so often that after nine holes, I believed that he had indeed scored 19 holes in one.

There’s a Leicestershire golfer who had a hole in one on the same par three at Hunstanton on 3 consecutive days. In a county match in 1974. So it should be a breeze for Alonzo to have us in the champions league in a season or two 

[CornwallRam]

6 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

If, in the extremely unlikely scenario of a points deduction, the deduction would only apply to next season.

They won't deduct points this season. I can imagine them suddenly having a change of heart and reversing Sheffield Wednesday's points deduction if it relegated us though.

[Zag zig]

20 hours ago, MuespachRam said:

We won’t go down....but honestly I hope we do, anything for a change of scenery. It would be a right laugh in Division 3. 

I half think that was a bit of WUM bait, but you’ve been around long enough to know the last time we did were actually quite fun times, in amongst a few cow sheds we visited; doubt we’d bounce back like we did last time but they were some of my happiest years as a Rams fan; it was a laugh but I don’t think it would be as easy this time as Sunderland and Ipswich have found.