Relegation watch

[FlyBritishMidland]

I think we’ll stay up - just!!  Let’s not get too carried away with Rotherham’s win last night.  They’ve still got a game roughly every 3 days and their last 3 games are all tough.  I think they’ll run out of steam.

In my view, we’ll stay up because of Sheffield Wednesdays points deduction.  I can see them getting to within 6 points of us.

[StantonRam]

1 hour ago, FindernRam said:

I ran a makeshift monte carlo simulation for bottom 7 clubs. Over 20 runs (excel based)  using last 10 games as form guide for the odds, and lot of manual updating the commonest result was Brum Derby Roth on 50 points. Hudd Cov 49, Sheff 42 Wycombe 36.

Man that is really down to the wire. In those 20 passes we were relegated 6 times! 

The one thing I couldn't factor in is injuries and Rotherham's horrendous schedule.

My favourite prediction site has us to get 51 points and be clear by 1 point. Last Day squeaky bum time! They say 14% chance of relegation. But also a pretty flat spread between 21st and 15th.

 

If it really is that tight then goal difference will be a huge factor, and in that scenario would presumably decide which of those 2 teams went down.

[Tombo]

Why are we all saying its in our hands? It most certainly is not.

I know what you're saying, if we get some results we will stay up. If we don't we could go down.

But by the definition of the phrase, its not in our hands. If our rivals win all their games, it is mathematically impossible to stay up, even if we win all of ours.

That's the frustrating thing about our situation, that is it not ours to lose anymore.

[Van der MoodHoover]

7 minutes ago, Tombo said:

Why are we all saying its in our hands? It most certainly is not.

I know what you're saying, if we get some results we will stay up. If we don't we could go down.

But by the definition of the phrase, its not in our hands. If our rivals win all their games, it is mathematically impossible to stay up, even if we win all of ours.

That's the frustrating thing about our situation, that is it not ours to lose anymore.

I thought ir was demonstrated that if we win every game then we will definitely finish ahead of Wycombe, Wednesday and Birmingham. 

You can see that from the current table. 

 

[richinspain]

14 minutes ago, Tombo said:

Why are we all saying its in our hands? It most certainly is not.

I know what you're saying, if we get some results we will stay up. If we don't we could go down.

But by the definition of the phrase, its not in our hands. If our rivals win all their games, it is mathematically impossible to stay up, even if we win all of ours.

That's the frustrating thing about our situation, that is it not ours to lose anymore.

I was tempted to give you the angry emoji, something I have never done. As @Van der MoodHoover states Birmingham or Derby can not win every game they have to play because they play each other. If we win ALL of our games, something that IS in our hands (however unlikely) we will finish above three teams.

[Nuwtfly]

I think steering us this close to relegation after 28+ games is a sackable offence, regardless of whether we scrape by or not.

Relying on Rotherham to not win games? What on earth has gone wrong with this great club.

If Darren Wassall had taken over instead of former England and Manchester United striker Wayne Rooney, and achieved the exact same in the same amount of time, I think the calls for his head would be a lot louder, personally.

[CBRammette]

3 minutes ago, Nuwtfly said:

I think steering us this close to relegation after 28+ games is a sackable offence, regardless of whether we scrape by or not.

Relying on Rotherham to not win games? What on earth has gone wrong with this great club.

If Darren Wassall had taken over instead of former England and Manchester United striker Wayne Rooney, and achieved the exact same in the same amount of time, I think the calls for his head would be a lot louder, personally.

You are correct!

[Wolfie20]

3 hours ago, Dean (hick) Saunders said:

The games are there to get sufficient points. If we don’t get them we deserve to go down.

Next game is massive. If we get a win I expect the bookies odds would be in our favour.

The bookies odds are already in our favour, with 5 teams at shorter odds than Derby. Problem is, if you're a fan, it's all too easy to look on the negative side - no doubt Wednesday, Huddersfield, Rotherham and Coventry supporters are doing similar.

[OohMartWright]

24 minutes ago, Nuwtfly said:

I think steering us this close to relegation after 28+ games is a sackable offence, regardless of whether we scrape by or not.

Relying on Rotherham to not win games? What on earth has gone wrong with this great club.

If Darren Wassall had taken over instead of former England and Manchester United striker Wayne Rooney, and achieved the exact same in the same amount of time, I think the calls for his head would be a lot louder, personally.

I think you have conveniently overlooked the fact that we were rock bottom when Rooney took over and are now several places higher in the table. I'm not saying he's done brilliantly, but some balance is required.

[IslandExile]

19 minutes ago, OohMartWright said:

I think you have conveniently overlooked the fact that we were rock bottom when Rooney took over and are now several places higher in the table. I'm not saying he's done brilliantly, but some balance is required.

How many points did we accrue during Bielik's short stint?

[kash_a_ram_a_ding_dong]

56 minutes ago, Nuwtfly said:

I think steering us this close to relegation after 28+ games is a sackable offence, regardless of whether we scrape by or not.

Relying on Rotherham to not win games? What on earth has gone wrong with this great club.

If Darren Wassall had taken over instead of former England and Manchester United striker Wayne Rooney, and achieved the exact same in the same amount of time, I think the calls for his head would be a lot louder, personally.

I personally doubt we would be in this position if he or Mac had taken over but that wasn't to be and it's purely my personal opinion.

However,here we are and it's pretty precarious but ultimately surviveable if we can just pull out fingers out and start scoring goals.

Tora,Tora,Tora.

 

[RoyMac5]

1 minute ago, kash_a_ram_a_ding_dong said:

However,here we are and it's pretty precarious but ultimately surviveable if we can just pull out fingers out and start scoring goals.

Yeah we should start someone else besides CKR for a start!

[IslandExile]

1 minute ago, RoyMac5 said:

Yeah we should start someone else besides CKR for a start!

Llorente?

[Van der MoodHoover]

13 minutes ago, IslandExile said:

How many points did we accrue during Bielik's short stint?

With Bielik (including Bristol City where he was injured again) 

P12 W6 D3 L3... Ppg 1.75

Without Bielik 

P29 W5 D6 L18... Ppg 0.72

 

[Dean (hick) Saunders]

11 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Yeah we should start someone else besides CKR for a start!

Rooney out of retirement.?

[Van der MoodHoover]

Oops.. Missed 1 further draw from the without Bielik stats.... 

?

[Bald Eagle's Barmy Army]

2 hours ago, FlyBritishMidland said:

I think we’ll stay up - just!!  Let’s not get too carried away with Rotherham’s win last night.  They’ve still got a game roughly every 3 days and their last 3 games are all tough.  I think they’ll run out of steam.

In my view, we’ll stay up because of Sheffield Wednesdays points deduction.  I can see them getting to within 6 points of us.

They either have all home games or mostly local away games. This could work in their favour even if they do have a lot of games to play. 

I can see them beating Coventry tomorrow and then by the time they play on Sunday, they'll know other results that could massively go in their favour. 

If we don't get at least 2 points from our next two games, I can see them being either above us or a point behind. 

[Ghost of Clough]

5 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

With Bielik (including Bristol City where he was injured again) 

P12 W6 D3 L3... Ppg 1.75

Without Bielik 

P29 W5 D6 L18... Ppg 0.72

 

After Bielik's injury

 

[May Contain Nuts]

7 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

After Bielik's injury

 

 

What about if you take out points gained from CKR & Gregory's goals?

[FindernRam]

What about the EFL points deduction looming...Can they do that this season now? After all they appealed a decision that was not supposed to be appealable!