Relegation watch

[plymouthram]

10 hours ago, Tombo said:

Why are we all saying its in our hands? It most certainly is not.

I know what you're saying, if we get some results we will stay up. If we don't we could go down.

But by the definition of the phrase, its not in our hands. If our rivals win all their games, it is mathematically impossible to stay up, even if we win all of ours.

That's the frustrating thing about our situation, that is it not ours to lose anymore.

Our rivals can't all win all their games, its not possible because some are playing each other, example comig up is Rotherham v Coventry

[ariotofmyown]

8 hours ago, erathirea said:

Not posted much in a while, but I do love some good stats.

Systematic approach.

Our maximum possible points is 58. So currently, Norwich, Watford, Swansea, Brentford, Bournemouth, Barnsley, Reading, Cardiff are "safe". Our worst case scenario is therefore them all to lose ALL their remaining games (except when playing each other, because those results don't matter for the purpose of this).

If you do that, then that pushes some more teams about 58 points. Millwall, QPR, and Luton, to be exact. So, then we assume they lose ALL of their remaining games (apart from the ones where they beat the current top 8).

Now 3 more teams are "safe" - Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Stoke. So repeat the process...

(remember, this is *literally* the worst case scenario for Derby - teams below 58 points are picking up points against teams above 58 points only) 

Once you repeat the process, no more teams *automatically* go above Derby.

So now we look for other "worst case scenarios". 

If you put the results in as I've described, the bottom of the championship looks like this:

15 Derby County 46 58

16 Rotherham United 43 54 (max theoretically 63)

17 Preston North End 44  54 (max theoretically 60)

18 Nottingham Forest 42 52 (max theoretically 64)

19 Coventry City 43 51 (max theoretically 60)

20 Huddersfield Town 43 50 (max theoretically 59)

21 Birmingham City 43 48 (max theoretically 57)

22 Wycombe Wanderers 46 48 (max 48)

23 Blackburn Rovers 42 47 (max theoretically 59)

24 Sheffield Wednesday 44 41 (max theoretically 47)

So there's 3 teams that, in this situation, we *guarantee* finish below us   (because we beat Birmingham).

 

I wanted to take it a step further, though. It's almost impossible in this scenario for Wednesday to catch us - even if we lose *to* them, we'd need to lose at least 2 other games). 

So our worst case scenario therefore should assume they have gone. So if they lose their other 2 games, that benefits other teams in the bottom few. Wycombe have also gone, despite wins against some good teams.

 

We already know Derby are safe if they win all their remaining games. Let's put Birmingham to one side, and talk about 2 other teams- Huddersfield and Birmingham. For them to finish above us in this scenario, they BOTH need to win *all* their remaining games. They *can't*, because they have to play each other.

Coventry would need at least 7 points, but they have to play Huddersfield too. In fact, there is no combination of results that leaves many of these teams ahead of us - Preston need 4 points from 2 games, but need to take points off Coventry to do it..

 

So let's adjust our view - what if we lose the worst possible game- to Birmingham?

This scenario immediately makes things more dicey, and puts Forest safe (55 points in this playthrough). So they lose their other 3 games, putting Preston safe in the process, who subsequently lose their other remaining game. Bottom of the table now looks like this:

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Birmingham City 44 54

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Blackburn Rovers 43 50

With 6 games to decide it:

Rotherham v Coventry, Rotherham v Birmingham, Blackburn v Hudd, Hudd v Coventry, Rotherham v Blackburn, Blackburn v Birmingham.

Rotherham v Coventry v Huddersfield v Blackburn v Birmingham v Rotherham again, allows all 5 of those to win a game, with Blackburn having a spare game against Rotherham to pick up the win they need. - very contrived, but possible (any draw, by the way, guarantees at least one team to finish level on points with us.

 

SO- Don't Lose to Birmingham!

But what if we draw with BIrmingham?

In this scenario, Birmingham need 7 points to draw level with us - given their inferior GD (and that they aren't making it up by thrashing us), they realistically need 3 wins, against Rotherham, Blackburn and Forest. Blackburn then need to win their last 2 games to draw level with us, against Rotherham and Huddersfield. 

This combination of results would put Blackburn level with us, Birmingham ahead of us... but this leaves Rotherham needing 1 win from 1 and Huddersfield winning 2 from 2... meaning Coventry lose 2 of theirs and they can then NOT catch us.

 

SO- Drawing with Birmingham means we're safe.

 

Final scenario - what if we beat Birmingham, but lose to Blackburn (losing to Blackburn being *slightly* worse than losing to Preston.

This immediately makes Forest and Preston safe (as discussed previously).

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Blackburn Rovers 43 53

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Birmingham City 44 51

Birmingham need 4 points from 2 games to draw level. Let's start by going with 2 wins, against  Blackburn and Rotherham. 

All 4 remaining teams need a win, which is, unfortunately, possible, as they are playing each other in such a combination that a round robin of wins is possible, albeit convoluted.

 

So, in summary. If we win all remaining games, we're safe. If we win 4 and draw with Brum, we're safe. If we do anything else, we're not mathematically safe.

 

 

 

 

 

Could you do a similar analysis, but the other way ie assuming we get zero points! How many points do we need to 'probably' be safe?

[FlyBritishMidland]

15 hours ago, Bald Eagle's Barmy Army said:

They either have all home games or mostly local away games. This could work in their favour even if they do have a lot of games to play. 

I can see them beating Coventry tomorrow and then by the time they play on Sunday, they'll know other results that could massively go in their favour. 

If we don't get at least 2 points from our next two games, I can see them being either above us or a point behind. 

Ordinarily I’d agree about the home games but as we know, this isn’t an ordinary season.  It is still in our own hands and I’d rather be in that position than Rotherham’s or Coventry’s.  I guess we’ll know a bit more tonight - and I really don’t know which result is best.

[TigerTedd]

What’s weird is that everyone involved still has it in their own hands, I believe. Because teams are playing each other. If Rotherham, Coventry or Birmingham won all of their remaining games, then they’d be safe too. Do their probably all having similar conversations on their forums. 

but it can all change in the space of one round of games. And no one is actually going to win all their games, so it’s impossible to predict really. 

[Ambitious]

On the brightside.... I hear Milton Keynes is beautiful in November. 

[FindernRam]

32 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

I hear Milton Keynes is beautiful in November. 

Only the roundabouts!

[Gaspode]

1 hour ago, Ambitious said:

On the brightside.... I hear Milton Keynes is beautiful in November. 

I've been there in Novemeber - it's not! (nor is it beautiful (or anything less than deeply unpleasant) at any other time of the year....)

[Olton Ram]

17 minutes ago, Gaspode said:

I've been there in Novemeber - it's not! (nor is it beautiful (or anything less than deeply unpleasant) at any other time of the year....)

You obviously haven't appreciated the town's famous concrete cows. Truly a modern wonder

[StantonRam]

So, to summarise:

Every game between the bottom 8 teams is now a massive 'cup final' & a '6 pointer'.

Ours especially.

So, poo or bust, death or glory, we shall fight them on the beaches etc etc etc.

Almost all of this squad have things to play for - loan extension, academy player catching the eye, possible purchase, a contract here, a contract elsewhere.

No one wants a relegation on their CV!

I stick by my previous prediction that we will be kept sweating until the last day because our lot will probably find a way to draw 3 of the remaining games, possibly from winning positions, but then pull it out of the bag with 2 wins, one of which will be Sheff Wed.  However, we still won't be mathematically safe on goal difference until the 95th minute on the 8th May.

Time to buy an extra set of underwear.

COYR!

[AGR]

10 hours ago, plymouthram said:

Our rivals can't all win all their games, its not possible because some are playing each other, example comig up is Rotherham v Coventry

But if Coventry win tonight and Rotherham win their two remaining games in hand against Luton and Boro that will put us in the bottom 3. So it's not in our hands.

[richinspain]

2 minutes ago, AGR said:

But if Coventry win tonight and Rotherham win their two remaining games in hand against Luton and Boro that will put us in the bottom 3. So it's not in our hands.

BUT BIRMINGHAM............

[rynny]

6 minutes ago, richinspain said:

BUT BIRMINGHAM............

[Gone]

It’s a crappy position to be in granted, but it’s exciting isn’t it. I’d never of dreamt of watching Rotherham V Coventry on a Thursday night and actually be nervous about the result. If only my Dad had told me 40 odd years ago, about what really being a Rams fan would be like!!!! 

[Spanish]

22 minutes ago, AGR said:

But if Coventry win tonight and Rotherham win their two remaining games in hand against Luton and Boro that will put us in the bottom 3. So it's not in our hands.

 

13 minutes ago, rynny said:

just give up it is not worth it

[Spanish]

1 minute ago, TexasRam said:

It’s a crappy position to be in granted, but it’s exciting isn’t it. I’d never of dreamt of watching Rotherham V Coventry on a Thursday night and actually be nervous about the result. If only my Dad had told me 40 odd years ago, about what really being a Rams fan would be like!!!! 

not quite Wolves v Leeds, Monday May 8, 1972

[maxjam]

2 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

It’s a crappy position to be in granted, but it’s exciting isn’t it. I’d never of dreamt of watching Rotherham V Coventry on a Thursday night and actually be nervous about the result. If only my Dad had told me 40 odd years ago, about what really being a Rams fan would be like!!!! 

My brother-in-law is an Everton fan, I often take the p1$$ as all they ever do is exist in the PL - occasional flirt with the top 6 or relegation but generally its one drab forgetful season after another.

Yeah we might go down this season, in recent seasons we might have gone up - one thing its not, is boring!

[Gone]

15 minutes ago, Spanish said:

not quite Wolves v Leeds, Monday May 8, 1972

? not exactly no, but one day we might get back to that kind of excitement (well according to our potential new owner) 

[Rammy03]

23 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Yeah we might go down this season, in recent seasons we might have gone up - one thing its not, is boring!

Never boring being a Derby fan

[Robert Earnshaws Workrate]

So, just to confirm, we're saying that whether we get relegated or not is still in our hands?

[Rammy03]

1 minute ago, Robert Earnshaws Workrate said:

So, just to confirm, we're saying that whether we get relegated or not is still in our hands?

This is the last time I'm going to say this but by definition, it is in our hands. 

If we win every game from now until the end of the season, we cannot be relegated.