Relegation watch

[Jimbo Ram]

44 minutes ago, richinspain said:

No one has suggested that we will win our last 5 games, only that it IS in our own hands. We are however as likely to win our last 5 games as any of the other teams down at the bottom to win all of theirs. It is in our hands because we only have to perform as well as Birmingham in their games not beat them at our place.

But on current form are we?

[Sheikh n Bake]

Can we still make the playoffs?

[richinspain]

2 minutes ago, Jimbo Ram said:

But on current form are we?

On current form is anyone?

[Olton Ram]

1 minute ago, Sheikh n Bake said:

Can we still make the playoffs?

Next year? Not necessarily; there's some tough teams in League One

[ramboy63]

34 minutes ago, richinspain said:

Birmingham are 2 points above us with the same number of games played. If we match them over all the games and beat them at home we go above them.

Form team Birmingham they will be fine 3 wins and a draw in last 5

I think we all agree Sheff Weds and Wycombe look like goners,so its one team from 4 for me,Hudds no win in five and away at Florest this week could be the team

[StantonRam]

Had another look at the table just now.

Let's assume for a moment that Rotherham will go above us once they have played the same number of games but that Coventry will still be below us having failed to capitalise on their game in hand.

Our task then is to ensure that either Brum, Hudd or Cov take Rotherham's place in the bottom 3 and not us, with Cov being the most vulnerable I think.

Here's how we do it.

WIN 2 out of the 4 games against our rival teams in the same zone - Blackburn, Preston, Brum, Sheff Wed, I think that is doable.

DRAW one of those 4 games, also reasonable I think.

That gives us 50 points, which I think will be enough, and with 2 wins and 1 draw then even if we lose the other 2 of the 5 remaining games we still stay up.

We also need to maintain the better goal difference that we currently have relative to Brum/Hudd/Cov whatever happens just in case.

A 1-0 loss to Swansea would not see us going down, but a heavy loss might if it leaves our goal difference worse than that of those 3 other teams.

If we win only 1 of the 5 remaining games then the other 4 will need to be draws to be sure of getting the magic 50 points.  Difficult but not impossible.

I think that the Rams will pull their usual trick of putting us through hell and then pulling it out of the bag right at the end by not beating Blackburn or Preston (although draws are quite possible), not beating Swansea (although again a draw is probably on the cards), but then thumping both Brum and Sheff Wed, each by a 2 or 3 goal margin, to end the season in 18th or 19th place on goal difference with 52 points.

I used to sell crystal balls for a living, but I couldn't see any future in it...

[Spanish]

god this is so difficult

In our own hands is a statistical assessment

we are ducked is subjective assessment as to whether the statistics meet realty

you can hold both views they are not mutually exclusive

 

[Dimmu]

11 hours ago, RadioactiveWaste said:

At the moment i give us about 2 in 3 chance of staying up.

 

Good guess, but the odds are significantly better.

I've seen figures between 14-25 % for our relegation. My own calculation is 21,8. 

I'm a betting man and I did include that 3,2% difference to my bets.

 

[Jimbo Ram]

10 minutes ago, ramboy63 said:

Form team Birmingham they will be fine 3 wins and a draw in last 5

I think we all agree Sheff Weds and Wycombe look like goners,so its one team from 4 for me,Hudds no win in five and away at Florest this week could be the team

Yep, Wendies and Wycombe down, Rotherham will survive, between us, Coventry and Udders for the final trap door slot...just a case of ? 

[Dean (hick) Saunders]

The games are there to get sufficient points. If we don’t get them we deserve to go down.

Next game is massive. If we get a win I expect the bookies odds would be in our favour.

Edited April 14, 2021 by Dean (hick) Saunders

[Carnero]

38 minutes ago, Spanish said:

I think some are focused on the rear view mirror when there are still teams in front of us that may make a difference

Exactly, you can even go as high as Blackburn & Preston too, beat either or both of these and they're in the mix too.

[Carnero]

10 minutes ago, Dimmu said:

My own calculation is 21,8. 

How do you come up with this? Interested to know.

[FindernRam]

I ran a makeshift monte carlo simulation for bottom 7 clubs. Over 20 runs (excel based)  using last 10 games as form guide for the odds, and lot of manual updating the commonest result was Brum Derby Roth on 50 points. Hudd Cov 49, Sheff 42 Wycombe 36.

Man that is really down to the wire. In those 20 passes we were relegated 6 times! 

The one thing I couldn't factor in is injuries and Rotherham's horrendous schedule.

My favourite prediction site has us to get 51 points and be clear by 1 point. Last Day squeaky bum time! They say 14% chance of relegation. But also a pretty flat spread between 21st and 15th.

 

[Sparkle]

We need to score goals to win points basically if we fail to do that then we have a problem 

personally I think we need 5-7 points to be safe which is totally in our hands and if one of our expensive players decide to have a good day or two we should be ok. 

[Gone]

6 minutes ago, Sparkle said:

We need to score goals to win points basically if we fail to do that then we have a problem 

[OohMartWright]

2 hours ago, Jimbo Ram said:

It wasn’t me that contradicted Spanish ?

Sorry, my bad, trying to respond to too many posts at once!

[RadioactiveWaste]

1 hour ago, Dimmu said:

Good guess, but the odds are significantly better.

I've seen figures between 14-25 % for our relegation. My own calculation is 21,8. 

I'm a betting man and I did include that 3,2% difference to my bets.

 

I'm always pessimistic in these things. I'm glad to know the bookies are more hopeful than me! If nothing else, the bookies reflect what many many people think and put their money on. 

 

Obviously, after the match v Blackburn we'll all revise our chances.

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, ramboy63 said:

Comman sense at last

But technically incorrect.

[Dimmu]

1 hour ago, Carnero said:

How do you come up with this? Interested to know.

Basically same way betting companies does, propabilities.

There's huge differencies in the odds, which is rare to see. Obviously small change in possibility makes a big difference when there's multiple games left.

[Ghost of Clough]

Rotherham need 9 points to stay up. Given their record this season, I can't see that being 2 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses. 3 wins out of the following: Coventry, Birmingham, Boro, Barnsley, Brentford, Blackburn, Luton and Cardiff.
Very touch and go.

Blackburn and Preston only need a point or 2 to guarantee safety. 

It's out of the bottom 7 teams.

Blackburn have a massive say in the relegation battle, with games against Derby, Sheff Weds, Huddersfield, Rotherham and Birmingham