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16 hours ago, cheron85 said:

That's next season

4 year plan

Year One - Get rid of the dead wood, start blooding the youngsters

Year Two - Start assembling the squad and get everyone used the the playing style

Year Three - Playoffs

Year Four - If Year Three unsuccessful then win the league, if Year Three successful stay in the PL

It's a nice plan. The problem is that these plans so rarely actually work out. Players don't improve linearly. Successful players and managers leave for other clubs. Tactics have a shelf life before other teams work out exactly how to combat them - even if the tactics are effective to begin with. Managers choose tactics that can never succeed in the division, thus making any success actually impossible. Young players don't necessarily fit with the tactics, are often inconsistent and their inexperience often leads to them making mistakes (one or two youngsters often add energy and can be a real positive, but too many at once is a recipe for failure). Players get injured, fall out with each other, go to the pub and get caught drunk driving etc. Owners change, existing owners run out of cash/patience. The EFL decide to sabotage the club.

To succeed you would need the right manager, the right youngsters, the right signings, the right tactics, the right coaching, the right owner/chainman, the right medical staff and luck with injuries consistently over a four year period. Even one of those things being wrong would stop the plan from working. Those things sometimes align for a while, but never over a long timescale. In the real world there are too many variables for any long-term plan to actually work out.

By far and away the most successful model is:

Old manager leaves - new manager comes in and gets more out of the existing squad, signs a couple of good players and gets promotion within the first full season.

It's a couple of years since I looked, but when I checked, from the last 30 promotion from this division, 22 were from clubs with managers in their first full season, two were promoted clubs getting promoted again and one was a relegated club sticking with their manager. Of the other five, four had been in the play-offs in the previous season and that season had been the manager's first. 

My conclusion is that success (which for us must be promotion) comes quickly or not at all for a manager in the Championship.

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6 minutes ago, dcfcreece1601 said:

A bit worrying that a striker has been out too priority since day one and we've made 7+ signings so far and not got a striker yet,  makes me think we are down to the bottom of the list of our targets and that the 1st , 2nd choice etc we couldn't get 

Makes me think we have no money, other clubs reluctant to sell and Premier Leagues clubs waiting to the end of the window before we loan anyone out.

 

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15 minutes ago, IslandExile said:

Makes me think we have no money, other clubs reluctant to sell and Premier Leagues clubs waiting to the end of the window before we loan anyone out.

Thing is on the whole the history of our current 'recruitment team' isn't the greatest, so it's also possible we're doing another 'Watkins'?! ? Nah not really.

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38 minutes ago, dcfcreece1601 said:

A bit worrying that a striker has been out too priority since day one and we've made 7+ signings so far and not got a striker yet,  makes me think we are down to the bottom of the list of our targets and that the 1st , 2nd choice etc we couldn't get 

Or that there's still a chance of getting our number one target

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32 minutes ago, CornwallRam said:

By far and away the most successful model is:

Old manager leaves - new manager comes in and gets more out of the existing squad, signs a couple of good players and gets promotion within the first full season.

That's it then, let's sack Cocu & go back to sacking managers all the time because that got us far didn't it, ended up worse off with players like Ikechi Anya robbing 30 grand p/w out the club.

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I did expect more movement this week seeing how bad we were last week. Marriott who was pulled off at half time must be shot of confidence so will he start?? Who else is there??? Not a lot.

I agree that we shouldnt buy just for the sake of it but another bad defeat will have us in real trouble as once you develop a losing mentality it takes some turning round.

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28 minutes ago, CornwallRam said:

It's a nice plan. The problem is that these plans so rarely actually work out.

No plan survives first contact with the enemy (and all that art of war stuff)

I fully agree but it's at least a good basis to start from

30 minutes ago, CornwallRam said:

My conclusion is that success (which for us must be promotion) comes quickly or not at all for a manager in the Championship.

My follow up challenge would be - How many of those sides survived more than a couple of seasons? 

I don't know for a fact but I suspect a lot have either come straight back down (a Norwich) or survived a lucky season and then come down (a Huddersfield)

I think the slow build is a better recipe for success - It may be the case that a manager could come in and do the Year 1, 2 and 3 part in a single season - But we had such a hodge-podge of multiple managers squads I really think it needed a Clough Jnr style refresh cos the squad Cocu inherited was totally disjointed 

It may well be that come the end of this season we're no further forward and a new manager comes in and does exactly what you say - Take the squad and gets 20% extra (like Mc1did with Clough Jnrs squad) - But 2 games in to Year 2 of the plan isn't the right time to bin it and start again (yet again)

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29 minutes ago, cheron85 said:

No plan survives first contact with the enemy (and all that art of war stuff)

I fully agree but it's at least a good basis to start from

My follow up challenge would be - How many of those sides survived more than a couple of seasons? 

I don't know for a fact but I suspect a lot have either come straight back down (a Norwich) or survived a lucky season and then come down (a Huddersfield)

I think the slow build is a better recipe for success - It may be the case that a manager could come in and do the Year 1, 2 and 3 part in a single season - But we had such a hodge-podge of multiple managers squads I really think it needed a Clough Jnr style refresh cos the squad Cocu inherited was totally disjointed 

It may well be that come the end of this season we're no further forward and a new manager comes in and does exactly what you say - Take the squad and gets 20% extra (like Mc1did with Clough Jnrs squad) - But 2 games in to Year 2 of the plan isn't the right time to bin it and start again (yet again)

One thing I can guarantee as a fact - far more promoted sides have maintained their position in the Premier League than ones who haven't been promoted.

Long term builds make promotion far less likely and thus, are far less sustainable. It is counter-intuitive and generally not how the real world works - but Championship football has, since the the PL became so 'rich',  developed a ridiculous reality all of its own. If a club could break even and compete, I suspect that things would be different, but each season in this division drains the resources of the owner. 

Edited by CornwallRam
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35 minutes ago, Bubbles said:

That's it then, let's sack Cocu & go back to sacking managers all the time because that got us far didn't it, ended up worse off with players like Ikechi Anya robbing 30 grand p/w out the club.

We have been in the play-offs three times with managers in their first full season. 

Mel hasn't actually, sacked many managers for 'failing'. McClaren twice and Clement. Rowett and Lampard left for 'better' offers. Pearson got himself sacked - results and performances didn't help his case, but off field stuff forced Mel's hand. According to all the information in the public domain, Pearson was here to build with a multi year plan - so it was actually the 'building' scenario which left us with 'Anya robbing' us.

That's the problem with building - it usually fails and leaves us with lots of players who the next manager doesn't want.

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Just like the Jozwiak saga this keeps dragging on and on, and its incredibly frustrating. 

Maybe he will be worth the wait, maybe not, but surely we should have been starting this process in August, not at the end of September.

My gut is it won't happen, and he'll sign a pre-contract in January ready for next season. With that breaking down I expect a loanee in toward the end of the window at best, either some ageing journeyman or at the other end of the scale an unproven teenager from the PL. 

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6 minutes ago, Rample said:

Just like the Jozwiak saga this keeps dragging on and on, and its incredibly frustrating. 

Maybe he will be worth the wait, maybe not, but surely we should have been starting this process in August, not at the end of September.

My gut is it won't happen, and he'll sign a pre-contract in January ready for next season. With that breaking down I expect a loanee in toward the end of the window at best, either some ageing journeyman or at the other end of the scale an unproven teenager from the PL. 

if it is going to happen it’ll have to be fast now only got till Monday 

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6 minutes ago, Rample said:

Maybe he will be worth the wait, maybe not, but surely we should have been starting this process in August, not at the end of September.

How do you know we weren't? Not aimed at you but so many people who use this line of complaint act like they could bring in players quicker/easily.

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1 hour ago, Ram a lamb a ding dong said:

I did expect more movement this week seeing how bad we were last week. Marriott who was pulled off at half time must be shot of confidence so will he start?? Who else is there??? Not a lot.

I agree that we shouldnt buy just for the sake of it but another bad defeat will have us in real trouble as once you develop a losing mentality it takes some turning round.

No energy left for the second half then! 

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26 minutes ago, Rample said:

Just like the Jozwiak saga this keeps dragging on and on, and its incredibly frustrating. 

Maybe he will be worth the wait, maybe not, but surely we should have been starting this process in August, not at the end of September.

My gut is it won't happen, and he'll sign a pre-contract in January ready for next season. With that breaking down I expect a loanee in toward the end of the window at best, either some ageing journeyman or at the other end of the scale an unproven teenager from the PL. 

He was only linked to us on Monday! The Jozwiak interest went as far back as December/January time and we then made an official move for him in August and he signed in September, so the two deals can't really be compared.

We'll know if the deal has been done by Monday, as that's when the international window closes.

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