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Relegation watch


Spanish

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3 hours ago, Jourdan said:

It’ll be interesting to see how we approach the 4 games before Birmingham at home.

With us winning yesterday, with almost every other result going our way, and with an eight point gap to Rotherham being opened up, I wonder if the players will start to think it’s job done.

I really hope not because our biggest danger at the moment is complacency.

It would be foolish of any player to think it's job done with us only on 43 points

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4 hours ago, Spanish said:

If we match them and they win their games in hand aren’t we relegated?

Fair one, I forgot that games in hand = points on the board. 

there are so many ifs on this thread. If we loose our next game, and Rotherham win their next. If Rotherham win their games in hand. If Rotherham do better than their average, and we don’t pick up any more points. If Birmingham continue their winning streak. If, if, if. 

so much still has to happen and go against us for us to end this season relegated. We are certainly not the favourites to go down at this point. 

it just appears to be the default setting of most Derby fans that the worst case scenario will definitely, absolutely, positively happen. 

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1 hour ago, Norman said:

I don't think anyone is claiming they are going to go on a fantastic run. 

We won 6 in 8. Birmingham have won their last 2. Is is that improbable that Rotherham could potentially pick up more points than they currently average, considering their fixtures. 

I think they could well get 14 from 11. That puts them on 49 with a currently better GD. 

I don't fancy us getting many more than 7 more points. 

I think it will be tight, others don't. But you can't just dismiss the opinion. 

I mean, they could average 1 point a game for their first 10 games, and win the last one. Doesn't really matter about averages at that point. I think it will come down to last day myself. 

You are forgetting an important point, Rotherham have to complete their fixtures on the 8th of May like the rest of the Championship teams. They have 8 games to play in April, where other teams have 5. They pulled the Covid card twice when they had some of their key players not available. The EFL should have done the same as the FA and made teams play their fixtures with utilising the youth teams if neccesary to make their team up. (Derby v Chorley springs to mind). They will not be abe to win more points than they currently have done in their previous 35 games (which works out a point per game). I remember Derby back in 1985/86 season having lots of games in hand and having to play them in all in such a short time. Had we won them all, we would have gone up as champions in the 3rd tier that season. I recall we drew most of them and finished 3rd behind Reading and Plymouth. Back then, the top 3 went up automaticaly. We were one of the teams at the top, where Rotherham are one of the teams at the bottom. Even if Rotherham draw all 4 games in hand, they will still be averaging 1 point per game. They will be lucky to get more than 46 points.

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I've been so focused on the teams below us, that I'd not noticed the teams above us. Preston and Blackburn are both within 3 points of us as things stand (albeit, in Blackburn's case, with a vastly superior goal difference), and neither have been in particularly hot form as of late. Depending on how the next couple of games go for us and them (all against teams in the top eight), the two games at their grounds could prove to be six-pointers.

Edited by JfR
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16 hours ago, Jimbo Ram said:

I don’t think we are quite in the position yet not to worry about relegation rivals winning and getting within a couple of points of us. Take another butchers at the table and games played column, certainly nowhere near out of the woods yet, especially with Reading and Norwich to come next....

Bring 'em on!

COYR!

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14 hours ago, Jourdan said:

It’ll be interesting to see how we approach the 4 games before Birmingham at home.

With us winning yesterday, with almost every other result going our way, and with an eight point gap to Rotherham being opened up, I wonder if the players will start to think it’s job done.

I really hope not because our biggest danger at the moment is complacency.

I'd be pretty appalled if complacency crept in with us on a mere 43 points. The bigger danger for me is over-caution.

Not suggesting for a second Reading & Norwich are free hits but think we need to be targeting points against both. Reading are wobbling at the minute & Norwich are coasting to a title (as a insipid draw at Preston on Friday showed). 

People talk about how poor our squad is and losing Gregory & Waghorn won't help but we have Lawrence, Sibley, Jozwiak & Roberts as options in behind one of the best CFs in the division (statistically CKR has second highest goal to shot ratio). All 4 of those attacking players would interest better placed clubs than us. There are goals in this team & we need to find the balance between being solid but also having real menace going forward. In short, hanging on with no attacking threat will see us beaten easily.

Our record against the top 6 has been very good. A repeat over the next 2 games (say 4 points from the next 2 games) would take the drama out of later games & inject a bit of confidence to finish strongly.

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Rotherham's games being largely against teams in and around them does make me worry they can pick up a few more points. They've got 6 points from the last 5- if they repeat this and get 5 points from the 4 games in hand they'll be within 3 points of us. I think they'll pick up 2 wins from the 4 if I'm being honest.

Those who are think we're out of this are calling it way too early- We might get a point against reading and Norwich  and I do think we'll need 4 points from Blackburn and Preston tbh to ensure safety. 

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1 hour ago, Leeds Ram said:

Rotherham's games being largely against teams in and around them does make me worry they can pick up a few more points. They've got 6 points from the last 5- if they repeat this and get 5 points from the 4 games in hand they'll be within 3 points of us. I think they'll pick up 2 wins from the 4 if I'm being honest.

Those who are think we're out of this are calling it way too early- We might get a point against reading and Norwich  and I do think we'll need 4 points from Blackburn and Preston tbh to ensure safety. 

Rotherham play alot of teams around them but that is good in terms of both of the teams around us can win so 1 or both teams will drop points

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well here's hoping for some favourable results but they really look a bit worrying

Coventry15:00Bristol City  Bristol manager bounce has faded and I sense they are not that interested

Rotherham15:00Wycombe another surprise result for Wycombe but I don't expect it.  Just give them a tough game please  TBF they have picked up 7 points from their last 3 games.  Rovrum have some defensive problems after their skipper was sent off given they have injuries to 2 other defenders.  Dare he risk them both in this game?

Sheff Wed17:30Cardiff it is quite likely that a loss will see wendy 9 points from safety.  Cardiff's season is starting to disintegrate

Birmingham play tomorrow as do udders

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15 minutes ago, Spanish said:

well here's hoping for some favourable results but they really look a bit worrying

Coventry15:00Bristol City  Bristol manager bounce has faded and I sense they are not that interested

Rotherham15:00Wycombe another surprise result for Wycombe but I don't expect it.  Just give them a tough game please  TBF they have picked up 7 points from their last 3 games.  Rovrum have some defensive problems after their skipper was sent off given they have injuries to 2 other defenders.  Dare he risk them both in this game?

Sheff Wed17:30Cardiff it is quite likely that a loss will see wendy 9 points from safety.  Cardiff's season is starting to disintegrate

Birmingham play tomorrow as do udders

I think we have got to stop worrying about Wycombe and the Wendies.....if either of those come above us I think we will be doomed, I say doomed!!!!

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Just now, Jimbo Ram said:

I think we have got to stop worrying about Wycombe and the Wendies.....if either of those come above us I think we will be doomed, I say doomed!!!!

Wycombe haven't been highlighted for weeks.  I agree I expect this will be the last mention of wendy.  6 ft from the edge and falling

 

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3 hours ago, Spanish said:

well here's hoping for some favourable results but they really look a bit worrying

Coventry15:00Bristol City  Bristol manager bounce has faded and I sense they are not that interested

Rotherham15:00Wycombe another surprise result for Wycombe but I don't expect it.  Just give them a tough game please  TBF they have picked up 7 points from their last 3 games.  Rovrum have some defensive problems after their skipper was sent off given they have injuries to 2 other defenders.  Dare he risk them both in this game?

Sheff Wed17:30Cardiff it is quite likely that a loss will see wendy 9 points from safety.  Cardiff's season is starting to disintegrate

Birmingham play tomorrow as do udders

Brum playing Brentford , Hudds  v Norwich

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