This run we're on, as good as it is....

[Day]

4 minutes ago, David said:

It is wrong though, above says they are around 8th when in the real world where actual goals count they are top of the table. 

Points, wins, promotions, relegations are not decided on some rogue "expected" stat. 

At this point we're just creating meaningless stats for stats sake. 

Oh, and that Max Bird worldy at the weekend would not have counted as an "expected goal", it was an incredible strike out of nowhere which is the beauty of football.

Had that not gone in, it's 2-2, yet you could argue we would have made different substitutions, tactical changes to grab the winner that could have worked or gone against us.

That's the beauty of football, you can't expect anything. 

[PistoldPete]

8 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

The point is after well over half the season Plymouth remain on course for 99 pts and Wednesday for 97.  A quick Google shows it's rare but 92 points is sometimes not enough for automatic promotion from League One. 

So did Google tell you which team in history has ever got 92 points or more and not got promoted? You may have asked me Google a different question what is the highest points total for team finishing second. 
 

I would be very surprised if the second placed team at end of the season finishes the season with as many as 97 points. 

[ramsbottom]

Our unbeaten run has been impressive, it's just that Ipswich, Weds, and Plymouth's have been equally so.  Until one of those 3 have a wobble and we close to within a few points I'm not overly concerned about the gap.  I'm concentrating on the gap we have to 7th.  Keep that gap and I fancy us against anyone over 2 legs in the playoffs.  Yes it would be nice to grab an automatic spot, but too many draws have left us with a mountain to climb.

[PistoldPete]

50 minutes ago, David said:

Oh, and that Max Bird worldy at the weekend would not have counted as an "expected goal", it was an incredible strike out of nowhere which is the beauty of football.

Had that not gone in, it's 2-2, yet you could argue we would have made different substitutions, tactical changes to grab the winner that could have worked or gone against us.

That's the beauty of football, you can't expect anything. 

Point is though David over a course of a full season these things tend to even out. Except if you are Derby County… still waiting for last seasons quota of ref decisions to go our way. 

[Andicis]

1 hour ago, David said:

It is wrong though, above says they are around 8th when in the real world where actual goals count they are top of the table. 

Points, wins, promotions, relegations are not decided on some rogue "expected" stat. 

At this point we're just creating meaningless stats for stats sake. 

It's wrong, and it isn't perfect. But generally when given a full season, not many teams significantly outperform xG. It's an objective way to look at a game and a fairly interesting measure.

[Jubbs]

1 hour ago, David said:

Oh, and that Max Bird worldy at the weekend would not have counted as an "expected goal", it was an incredible strike out of nowhere which is the beauty of football.

See that's where you're wrong ?

Bird's shot itself had a value of 0.02 xG, which is what you would expect from that far out. How often do shots from there go on? Not very.

However, once he'd taken the shot it was 0.51 xGOT, a lot larger value which considers the end location of the shot.

[jono]

14 hours ago, LazloW said:

Wishful thinking

But didn’t they just lose a 9 goal striker ? Small things can upset a delicate balance in a team. 
 

 

[ram59]

1 hour ago, jono said:

But didn’t they just lose a 9 goal striker ? Small things can upset a delicate balance in a team. 
 

 

Don't forget that Whittaker also had 7 assists, so he contributed to 16 goals in total.

[Day]

3 hours ago, Jubbs said:

See that's where you're wrong ?

Bird's shot itself had a value of 0.02 xG, which is what you would expect from that far out. How often do shots from there go on? Not very.

However, once he'd taken the shot it was 0.51 xGOT, a lot larger value which considers the end location of the shot.

Not gonna lie, sounds like a load of nonsense, using bloody decimal points will at least impress Rishi I guess.

[OohMartWright]

7 minutes ago, David said:

Not gonna lie, sounds like a load of nonsense, using bloody decimal points will at least impress Rishi I guess.

It’s like the Emperor’s new clothes- everyone knows it is bull***t but nobody will say so.

[Carl Sagan]

5 hours ago, PistoldPete said:

So did Google tell you which team in history has ever got 92 points or more and not got promoted? You may have asked me Google a different question what is the highest points total for team finishing second. 
 

I would be very surprised if the second placed team at end of the season finishes the season with as many as 97 points. 

In the 2011/12 season first place was Charlton (101 pts) and second went to Sheff Wed on 93. So you wouldn't have gone up automatically with 92 points. Third place that year were Sheffield Utd, missing out to their city rivals with 90.

In the 2013/14 season first place was Wolves on 103 pts while second went to Brentford on 94. Again you wouldn't have gone up with 92. Orient were third on 86.

I've said it's inconceivable for us to reach 98 points given where we are now, so we have to hope one of the top two has a slump. But for them to fall to 92 points Plymouth would need to go from averaging 2.15pts a game for the first 27 matches to averaging 1.79 pts a game for the last 19 matches. And Sheffield Wednesday would need to go from a season-long average of 2.12 ppg to 1.85 ppg for their last 20. However, Ipswich only need 2.05 ppg from their last 20 to also hit this mark, with their season-long average being 1.96.

For us to reach 92 points would need 2.29 ppg for our remaining 21 matches, when our best run of the season has seen us accrue 2.00 ppg for just 12 games. And my guess is that second place will finish on 93.

For a bit of fun, here's a predicted end of season table from somewhere, with all the coming results listed (spoiler: we finish 4th on 85 points):

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/league-one/league-table/predicted

[PistoldPete]

32 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

In the 2011/12 season first place was Charlton (101 pts) and second went to Sheff Wed on 93. So you wouldn't have gone up automatically with 92 points. Third place that year were Sheffield Utd, missing out to their city rivals with 90.

In the 2013/14 season first place was Wolves on 103 pts while second went to Brentford on 94. Again you wouldn't have gone up with 92. Orient were third on 86.

I've said it's inconceivable for us to reach 98 points given where we are now, so we have to hope one of the top two has a slump. But for them to fall to 92 points Plymouth would need to go from averaging 2.15pts a game for the first 27 matches to averaging 1.79 pts a game for the last 19 matches. And Sheffield Wednesday would need to go from a season-long average of 2.12 ppg to 1.85 ppg for their last 20. However, Ipswich only need 2.05 ppg from their last 20 to also hit this mark, with their season-long average being 1.96.

For us to reach 92 points would need 2.29 ppg for our remaining 21 matches, when our best run of the season has seen us accrue 2.00 ppg for just 12 games. And my guess is that second place will finish on 93.

For a bit of fun, here's a predicted end of season table from somewhere, with all the coming results listed (spoiler: we finish 4th on 85 points):

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/league-one/league-table/predicted

Yes my Google picked up Sheff united being the highest points total for a team not getting promoted , ie 90. If they had got 92 or more who knows whether they would have got promoted depends on whether they could have got the extra points off teams above them. 
 

we have won our last three games .. keep that up and we will get automatic promotion for sure. 

[Grimbeard]

On 18/01/2023 at 13:16, OohMartWright said:

It’s like the Emperor’s new clothes- everyone knows it is bull***t but nobody will say so.

It's also balderdash and piffle. Not to mention tommyrot, tosh, bunkum, gibberish, tripe, claptrap, guff, poppycock, twaddle, and probably even flapdoodle,

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

37 minutes ago, Grimbeard said:

It's also balderdash and piffle. Not to mention tommyrot, tosh, bunkum, gibberish, tripe, claptrap, guff, poppycock, twaddle, and probably even flapdoodle,

Put this lot on social media as potential new Forest signings .

Guarantee at least one will state they heard bunkum turned down PSG, Barcelona and Inter Milan to join Forest and Guff was worth 80 million when a move to Arsenal broke down in the summer and they've got him for 2.50 . 

The other lemmings will then follow over a giant Forest Kingdom cliff in agreement 

[Day]

Another win, checks to see if we've closed the gap on the top 2....

[Addingham Ram]

9 minutes ago, David said:

Another win, checks to see if we've closed the gap on the top 2....

One step at a time David.

We're reeling in 3rd place first.

[JfR]

Wednesday vs. Argyle is the next match for both of the top two, so if we win at Port Vale we'll gain ground on at least one of them.

[LittleEatonRam]

Irrespective of whether we catch the top 2 or not (unlikely in my opinion but stranger things have happened), isn't this just quite enjoyable?

We're on an unbeaten run, conceding few goals and having some good days out as fans. Fourth in the league, competitive, good morale, smiles on faces. What's not to like?

This is the reason I wasn't fussed about being relegated to L1. There was always the chance that we might have a good time in this division. And besides, the way I see it we have two promotions to aim for. Compare this to when we were in the Championship, desperate for promotion to the supposed promised land and filled with bitterness, bickering and dissatisfaction.

In short, these are good days. Enjoy them because that's what follwing a team is all about.

[PistoldPete]

34 minutes ago, David said:

Another win, checks to see if we've closed the gap on the top 2....

Ah but we beat a team in the playoff spot. Which can’t be bad and we can still close the gap on the top 2 if we keep winning. 

[Phoenix]

We've gained 8 points on Ipswich in the last 10 games, so I suppose anything's possible, but I can't see us catching the top 2.