This run we're on, as good as it is....

[Srg]

5 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Interesting that Nate Silver's 5.38 website now gives us a better chance of promotion than Ipswich:

As well as a non-negligible albeit small chance of finishing top 2 (7% first and 16% second). Personally I think they rate our chances a little too highly.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/

Never trust a site which is trading on statistics, and therefore, accuracy, that can’t even use our correct badge. 

[DarkFruitsRam7]

1 hour ago, David said:

So good, you can’t even find the stats yourself!

Can’t wait to see these anyway, not only can they tell you how many goals you should have expected to score in the game, they can now predict the future!

Bookies must be crapping themselves now that football has become so predictable. 

Bookies will factor xG into their odds you fool!

[Day]

33 minutes ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

Bookies will factor xG into their odds you fool!

Bookies are laughing at you 

[DarkFruitsRam7]

13 minutes ago, David said:

Bookies are laughing at the people who bet based solely on actual results

FTFY.

https://analyticsfc.co.uk/blog/2022/09/20/data-in-context-how-did-graham-potters-brighton-achieve-a-big-six-style-of-play-with-a-bottom-six-budget/

This clever approach is to be expected under owner Tony Bloom who, together with Brentford owner Matthew Benham, made his fortune going against the conventional wisdom in the betting markets. Their syndicate were among the earliest to realise chance creation, rather than goals scored, was a better measure of a side’s performance and therefore ability to win matches. They used that insight, alongside other statistics, to beat the bookmakers and make a fortune.

These days their chance creation measurement has been replaced by expected goals (xG), while the other stats their group measured by eye have become publicly available, bringing that knowledge to the wider football world.
 

Edited January 22, 2023 by DarkFruitsRam7

[PistoldPete]

1 hour ago, Carl Sagan said:

Interesting that Nate Silver's 5.38 website now gives us a better chance of promotion than Ipswich:

As well as a non-negligible albeit small chance of finishing top 2 (7% first and 16% second). Personally I think they rate our chances a little too highly.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/

I agree that we should be ranked (on form) ahead of Ipswich. I don't understand what it says about the rest. What does "make from playoffs " mean? And does that mean 40% chance of promotion whether by  autos or via the playoffs? We will not finish top, I am pretty sure about that and more than 93% sure I agree Mr Sagan.  

[PistoldPete]

9 minutes ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

FTFY.

https://analyticsfc.co.uk/blog/2022/09/20/data-in-context-how-did-graham-potters-brighton-achieve-a-big-six-style-of-play-with-a-bottom-six-budget/

This clever approach is to be expected under owner Tony Bloom who, together with Brentford owner Matthew Benham, made his fortune going against the conventional wisdom in the betting markets. Their syndicate were among the earliest to realise chance creation, rather than goals scored, was a better measure of a side’s performance and therefore ability to win matches. They used that insight, alongside other statistics, to beat the bookmakers and make a fortune.

These days their chance creation measurement has been replaced by expected goals (xG), while the other stats their group measured by eye have become publicly available, bringing that knowledge to the wider football world.
 

And Rams fans shouldn't be laughing at Brentford who used analytics to help them when buying decent players not the duds we bought under Uncle Mel. 

[IlsonDerby]

3 hours ago, David said:

Because shots and shots on target are actual attempts on goal, actual.

Not oh we expect because you're there, doesn't actually take into account the defence or the keeper who could be having a good or bad game.

Nor does it factor in if you have Mbappe or Dobbin in that position.

It's an absolute nonsense stat that the hipsters will try and use to show how they should have won. Behave.

The team that is more clinical with their chances and put the ball in the net wins. It's really that simple.

Think you’re wrong with your attitude towards xG stats Dave. It is important to attach some form of quality rating to chances so you can get a meaningful insight into how creative/dangerous a team are. A team could go on a run of 4 wins due to the opposition missing easy chances and them scoring Max Bird rippers. Despite the good form it’s a false position and you’d expect a regression to the mean. 
 

it’s why Rotherham’s slide after Warne left was predictable and probably would have happened (maybe less as drastically) had Warne stayed as they were way over performing their XG.
 

There’s only so long you can keep scoring goals based on low quality chances in the same way that I’d have expected us to shoot up the league under Rosenior as our xG was higher than our oppositions in each game we played which meant sooner or later we’d have started finishing the chances we were creating and missing. 

[Day]

15 minutes ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

FTFY.

https://analyticsfc.co.uk/blog/2022/09/20/data-in-context-how-did-graham-potters-brighton-achieve-a-big-six-style-of-play-with-a-bottom-six-budget/

This clever approach is to be expected under owner Tony Bloom who, together with Brentford owner Matthew Benham, made his fortune going against the conventional wisdom in the betting markets. Their syndicate were among the earliest to realise chance creation, rather than goals scored, was a better measure of a side’s performance and therefore ability to win matches. They used that insight, alongside other statistics, to beat the bookmakers and make a fortune.

These days their chance creation measurement has been replaced by expected goals (xG), while the other stats their group measured by eye have become publicly available, bringing that knowledge to the wider football world.
 

Why are you not a millionaire yet?

[Day]

1 minute ago, IlsonDerby said:

Think you’re wrong with your attitude towards xG stats Dave. It is important to attach some form of quality rating to chances so you can get a meaningful insight into how creative/dangerous a team are. A team could go on a run of 4 wins due to the opposition missing easy chances and them scoring Max Bird rippers. Despite the good form it’s a false position and you’d expect a regression to the mean. 
 

it’s why Rotherham’s slide after Warne left was predictable and probably would have happened (maybe less as drastically) had Warne stayed as they were way over performing their XG.
 

There’s only so long you can keep scoring goals based on low quality chances in the same way that I’d have expected us to shoot up the league under Rosenior as our xG was higher than our oppositions in each game we played which meant sooner or later we’d have started finishing the chances we were creating and missing. 

The bold highlights what football is though, teams waste chances, you go on runs, come up against in form out of form.

How many games have you watched where the team with less possession, shots go on an win, Gary Rowett has made a career out of it.

 xG would have him overperforming, yet it's just his style working.

It's a deeply flawed statistic that is being given too much weight imo. 

What I love about football is the opinions, talking with mates after a game without bringing up stats.

I can understand clubs using all kinds of data to monitor performances, yet fans? 

[Grumpy Git]

6 minutes ago, David said:

I can understand clubs using all kinds of data to monitor performances, yet fans? 

The earlier I’m in the Brunny before a game, the better we play.

[Day]

I have created a separate xG topic in the football forum as it's discussion worthy in itself. Also included a poll.

 

[BondJovi]

10 minutes ago, David said:

The bold highlights what football is though, teams waste chances, you go on runs, come up against in form out of form.

How many games have you watched where the team with less possession, shots go on an win, Gary Rowett has made a career out of it.

 xG would have him overperforming, yet it's just his style working.

It's a deeply flawed statistic that is being given too much weight imo. 

What I love about football is the opinions, talking with mates after a game without bringing up stats.

I can understand clubs using all kinds of data to monitor performances, yet fans? 

Forest got promoted that way! Looked the worse team in most games I saw last season...

 

[DarkFruitsRam7]

18 minutes ago, David said:

How many games have you watched where the team with less possession, shots go on an win, Gary Rowett has made a career out of it.

 xG would have him overperforming, yet it's just his style working.

Because possession isn't an indication of chances created. A shot isn't an indication of the quality of the opportunity. I bet Gary Rowett's results relative to xG are similar to pretty much every manager in the history of football.

The problem with xG is its name. It makes it sound like a nothing stat, and the people that poo all over it completely (sometimes deliberately) misunderstand the purpose it serves.

Edited January 22, 2023 by DarkFruitsRam7

[Day]

6 minutes ago, BondJovi said:

Forest got promoted that way! Looked the worse team in most games I saw last season...

Prime example they are!

[BatRam]

Im happy whatever happens this season. As a whole iv enjoyed all of it. New owners great and i think Paul warne maybe my favourite manager we've had since god knows when. Hoping we can grab a couple of quality signings on the free during this window so we have abit more depth in the squad.

TBH i thought this season was just gonna be building a squad ready for a promotion push next season but gladly surprised about the form we're in.

Its nice to finally have decent wingers Cant remember the last time we actually had wingers that could cross and score , might be Russell and Weimann ?

[Ram@Lincoln]

45 minutes ago, CodnorRam said:

Im happy whatever happens this season. As a whole iv enjoyed all of it. New owners great and i think Paul warne maybe my favourite manager we've had since god knows when. Hoping we can grab a couple of quality signings on the free during this window so we have abit more depth in the squad.

TBH i thought this season was just gonna be building a squad ready for a promotion push next season but gladly surprised about the form we're in.

Its nice to finally have decent wingers Cant remember the last time we actually had wingers that could cross and score , might be Russell and Weimann ?

It really helps playing wingers that are actually wingers, not strikers pushed out wide. Mendez Laing and Barkhuizen's thought process is to beat their man and cross the ball, not cut in and get their own shot off. Russell and Weimann were both strikers pushed out wide for us. Bristol City played Weimann predominately down the middle last year and he scored 20 odd league goals. 

[MadAmster]

21 hours ago, Grumpy Git said:

Keep playing like we have been of late and the only question is if we finish top or second.

UTR.

Next time I'm over for a home game you can buy me a pint of the usual in the Brunny. I'm in there early myself. Likely to be in March... February game is Barnsley away, April is FGR away.

With regard to the post I've quoted, somebody took the time to take every team's last 10 games form and extrapolate that to the end of the season. We end up 3rd, 3 or 4 points behind Gargoyle in 2nd. Barnsley, Bolton and then Ipswich in 6th. Be interesting to see how inaccurate extrapolation is.

[PistoldPete]

17 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

Next time I'm over for a home game you can buy me a pint of the usual in the Brunny. I'm in there early myself. Likely to be in March... February game is Barnsley away, April is FGR away.

With regard to the post I've quoted, somebody took the time to take every team's last 10 games form and extrapolate that to the end of the season. We end up 3rd, 3 or 4 points behind Gargoyle in 2nd. Barnsley, Bolton and then Ipswich in 6th. Be interesting to see how inaccurate extrapolation is.

Would be frustrating if we finish 3 points behind Plymouth as they beat us a PPS with two offside goals. They were the better team on the day tbf but even so. 

[IlsonDerby]

19 hours ago, David said:

The bold highlights what football is though, teams waste chances, you go on runs, come up against in form out of form.

How many games have you watched where the team with less possession, shots go on an win, Gary Rowett has made a career out of it.

 xG would have him overperforming, yet it's just his style working.

It's a deeply flawed statistic that is being given too much weight imo. 

What I love about football is the opinions, talking with mates after a game without bringing up stats.

I can understand clubs using all kinds of data to monitor performances, yet fans? 

See I think you’re misconstruing it there. 
 

Rowett makes a career of being robust defensively and trying to take chances through being direct. I’d imagine most of his wins are backed up by XG because the expected goals against will always be so so low for his sides. 
 

im not disputing the beauty of overachieving or winning against the run of play but teams don’t often finish too far away from xG so useful as a metric with no emotion. much better than possession and shots on target etc 

[BatRam]

44 minutes ago, Ram@Lincoln said:

It really helps playing wingers that are actually wingers, not strikers pushed out wide. Mendez Laing and Barkhuizen's thought process is to beat their man and cross the ball, not cut in and get their own shot off. Russell and Weimann were both strikers pushed out wide for us. Bristol City played Weimann predominately down the middle last year and he scored 20 odd league goals. 

Isnt that the derby way? i remember when we got Vydra and i thought he was garbage. then we played him in his actual position next to Nuge and he was brill