Kirchner- A risk or a potential reward

[Rev]

12 minutes ago, uttoxram75 said:

No football club in history has had its books examined as closely as we have thanks to Maguire and Gibson running to the EFL with "please miss, please miss, Melvyn's been cheating" stories. 

"Miss" Parry duly ordered an investigation of Watergate proportions and managed to find the amortisation issue that they'd previously signed off as ok just to shut them up.

Personally, I've found @RipleyRich's posts to be informative so far.

I'd probably never have realised what merde we'd been left in without their input, so I've been very grateful for a new member to join up and share just what a precarious position we find ourselves in, repeatedly.

Now it comes to light he/she/they have recent experience of the merger and acquisitions business, I'm even more enthused to have them on board.

 

[RadioactiveWaste]

34 minutes ago, RipleyRich said:

Personally,  I'll worry about KC when a purchase is actually happening.

A lot of water to pass under the bridge yet ( or hurdles to cross as we keep being reminded)

I dread to think what's hidden in those books he now has access to. A few years ago I was appointed as a Director by new owners of a company as they were taking over a company I had partnered with for years. To say what came out of the woodwork was a shock is an understatement!

With a financial officer of Stephen Pearce's calibre.... they'll be finding horrors for months is my guess.

[IslandExile]

One positive is that, first time around, Rooney backed Kirchner's bid - saying that they shared the same vision for the club. Lots of emphasis on the academy, developing players, sustainable business plan and so on.

Besides Gary Cook, isn't Paul Stretford, Rooney's agent, one of Kirchner's advisors? So there's a relationship between owner-elect and manager there - a good thing.

We're all grateful for Rooney's efforts this year and feel he deserves a chance when times are less arduous than they've been this season. Kirchner will give him that opportunity.

[Crewton]

I would be staggered if Quantuma hadn't set up an Information Room at the very start of this process so that interested parties could examine relevant financial and other information from which to base any formal or provisional bids. If not, there would have been little incentive to sign NDAs and little on which to base any meaningful offer. 

So despite all the talk in the media etc about Kirchner only now gaining access to the club's accounts, I would expect further investigations to concentrate on updates to that information and the nitty-gritty of negotiations with the Preferred Creditors and the EFL. If the media are correct, however, that would for me call into question Quantuma's management of the process.

[YouRams]

He reminds me a bit of the Leeds chairman, anyone who's watched the documentary will know what i mean, seems a likeable guy with a real determination to make the club great again, will soon realise he doesn't have anywhere near enough money to compete so he'll go off and get us valuable investors for the next push.

For now i'm happy we'll have a club to support and put all the drama of the last few years behind us its been draining for everyone.

[Ram a lamb a ding dong]

I'm not even going to think beyond him signing on the dotted line.

These past 2 years have been horrendous so even though today is good news, until such times as we know for sure the accounts haven't scared the poo out of him , I won't be looking at the possibilities.

Let's just leave it that he is an unknown and an unknown is exactly that. He could be horrendous or he could be a saviour. After the final MM years we can't be picky

[Eddie]

It might be a risk, but it's an absolute no-brainer.

No takeover, no club.

[Ram1988]

Surley the fact he's previously tried to buy us and Preston will only help speed up the process of him passing the EFL fit and proper person test and getting everything finalised. It desperately needs to happen ASAP afterall.

[RadioactiveWaste]

1 hour ago, Crewton said:

I would be staggered if Quantuma hadn't set up an Information Room at the very start of this process so that interested parties could examine relevant financial and other information from which to base any formal or provisional bids. If not, there would have been little incentive to sign NDAs and little on which to base any meaningful offer. 

So despite all the talk in the media etc about Kirchner only now gaining access to the club's accounts, I would expect further investigations to concentrate on updates to that information and the nitty-gritty of negotiations with the Preferred Creditors and the EFL. If the media are correct, however, that would for me call into question Quantuma's management of the process.

I'm sure there was a data room for potential bidders.

Quite what went in there originally and what was subsequently made available are one thing, full access to all the information is another. I don't expect there's any huge game changing figures - they'd have had to be covered as part of the administrators statement of affairs (or whatever the term is).

I just expect they now find all sorts of things in "not a very good way of arranging things" or, "well this contractual relationship would appear to be one sided against the club, I don't think I'd have agreed to it"

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

24 minutes ago, Ram1988 said:

Surley the fact he's previously tried to buy us and Preston will only help speed up the process of him passing the EFL fit and proper person test and getting everything finalised. It desperately needs to happen ASAP afterall.

Do you have 50 million quid - no

Will you take a 15 point deduction  -yes

50% Thats a pass

[Oldben]

Taking over the club is just the start, by next season the team needs its rebuild to be in place because if there's a 15 point deduction, then the teams already challenged and it needs to be at least as strong as the top 4 teams currently in League one which is Wigan, mk dons, Rotherham and Plymouth.

Derby will lose a lot of players in the summer.

No recognised striker, let alone the 20 goals a season striker needed for league one.

No defensive team, midfield team or even a quality goalkeeper.

It's a huge rebuild.

Estimate at least 10 million.

Can't sign the best free agents as they will go else where.

Can't get the best loans as they will go else where.

Need to turn derby back into a team that players want to join, need to be strong enough to challenge for at least a play off position.

Need to sign the best available youth players to rebuild the academy.

Kirchner says in the Det there's a lot of work to do.

[Rich84]

We won't be able to spend £10m on players and don't need to.

We will be able to get quality free agents, there's plenty around.

As can be seen from this season, Jagielka and Morrison arriving, Allsop, Stearman, Davies, Plange even.

None costing a penny and all on wages that would fit the business plan for next year, potentially lower.

 

[Crewton]

32 minutes ago, Rich84 said:

We won't be able to spend £10m on players and don't need to.

We will be able to get quality free agents, there's plenty around.

As can be seen from this season, Jagielka and Morrison arriving, Allsop, Stearman, Davies, Plange even.

None costing a penny and all on wages that would fit the business plan for next year, potentially lower.

 

Spot on, and Rooney still being in place could be vital in attracting those free agents to choose Derby in L1 over other teams in the Championship. 

[RipleyRich]

34 minutes ago, Rich84 said:

We won't be able to spend £10m on players and don't need to.

We will be able to get quality free agents, there's plenty around.

As can be seen from this season, Jagielka and Morrison arriving, Allsop, Stearman, Davies, Plange even.

None costing a penny and all on wages that would fit the business plan for next year, potentially lower.

 

Theres less money around football outside the Premier League than there has been for several years. Contracts for free agents aren't going to be anywhere like they were 3 years ago. The challenge will be convincing players to drop to L1.

[falconram]

Hes the only one who really showed us that we were wanted, im happy with that, Ashley would have been fine but didnt show his hand, Appleby ok but SR involved so have my doubts.

We have a club we can continue to follow and hopefully the good times will return in the near future, Thankyou CK

[strawhillram]

Let’s enjoy the ride whether it’s a roller coaster or a merry go round

[Ambitious]

Kirchner is a risk in that, at least to my untrained eye, he doesn't seem to have the cash flow to bail him out of a bad decisions. Mel, at least to our knowledge at the time, used money to overcompensate for poor knowledge. The signings he made, at least invested heavily on, were proven and experienced players at this level - nearly every single one of them went backwards in their career and Derby nearly went bust because of it. 

Kirchner, I doubt, will have such luxuries of making anywhere near the same level of investments as Mel did. Not that it's a bad thing, of course, but definitely an emphasis on him being a lot smarter in different situations than Mel. Although, Mel should've been a lot smarter in just about every capacity of his ownership here - especially when it came recruitment. It's incredible that nearly every single one of the players he bought for the club left significantly worse than when they came to it. Even a broken clock is right twice a day - he couldn't even organise something as efficient as that! 

Kirchner isn't the new owner yet, of course, but I like the idea of actually having an owner with a mindset of having to work smarter than others. Football isn't a difficult business to be successful in, truly, providing you hire good staff and they're willing to put in the hours off the pitch. My preferred option was Mike Ashley due to his accumulated wealth, he's someone who can make bad decisions and not leave the club in a poor state. I'm happy with either and can see the pros and cons for both. 

Ultimately, it's not always the richest owners that enjoy the success. I would say smart over rich every day of the week, but the caveat is that we don't know how smart Kirchner is. 

[Jubbs]

9 hours ago, YouRams said:

will soon realise he doesn't have anywhere near enough money to compete so he'll go off and get us valuable investors for the next push

That's where Garry Cook comes in. He's got A LOT of contacts in the game and he's the person who introduced Man City's owners to them.

His podcast with The Athletic was intriguing and he sounds like someone who's expertise you'd want at a club.

[Asanovic70]

@Ambitious Great post, you sum up what probably quite a few of us are thinking. Kirchner is an unknown quantity, Mel Morris' tenure, 'money to overcompensate for poor knowledge'. You're very complimentary. What knowledge? The return of GSE, or its new manifestation, GSW, felt underwhelming, but during their ownership, financial restrictions meant that necessity became the mother of invention (the Academy rebooted). I like Andy Appleby, but did not want Rush back in any capacity. As others have just mentioned, if Mr Kirchner surrounds himself with the right people, and listens to them, then that is a positive. 

I was pleased when Ashley's interested was announced before the end of last year. I know business is unsentimental, that he is hard-nosed but he was in a position to declare an interest and outbid all the others if he had chosen to. I was going to post an article from BBC Newcastle following his sale of the club, apparently when he took them over, they had a £70m debt. He could have conceivably taken us over in our current position - complicated finances. I wasn't put off by his reputation at Newcastle. I'd take two relegations from the PL if they meant two promotions back. However, the fact that he stood by whilst we sold youngsters to the elite, to keep ourselves afloat until the end of this season, makes me wonder how serious he was regarding purchasing us.

Kirchner is a gamble, he has moderated his social media postings (current) after his initial over-enthusiasm. The Preston fans are not enamoured of him, but then I don't think Preston were in as desperate position to sell as we are. He was angry when he dropped out of buying us first time round but, in fairness to him, he made criticisms of the situation which perhaps have been proved correct over time (Mel's position over Pride Park, I assume), and I remember, if correct, others on this site wondering if that was the last we'd see of CK as he might return again if the sale remained protracted (I think Simon Jordan also said this on TalkSport at the time as well). For instance, I assume the £5m asked by Quantuma has now been waived, as they went on to raise this amount anyway through player sales etc.

I think all we ask, if Mr Kirchner is successful in buying the club, is that some stability is established, the club stops haemorrhaging players at all age levels, and if we do lose key players, they are sold for their market value (Knight), others probably released due to wages (Lawrence) and any monies (from sales or freed up elsewhere) reinvested in the club/team/squad. We should look to Sheff W as offering us hope for next season if a sale can go through. They have played the transfer market well, bringing in frees from the Championship as well as loans.

[BondJovi]

Mel Morris looked like the ideal owner for so many fans. Local, supporter and enough funds to do the job. He talked of great ambitions, numbers of academy players and so. But all he did was screw us over.

Once you get bitten by what you perceive to be the dream, anything else, especially one who hasn't done himself any public favours, is met with suitable caution.

All well and good sat here saying you would have preferred Ashley or Appleby, but if they wanted it enough it would be theirs.

Any new owner is a risk, but if the alternative is liquidation, we have no choice but to get on and support him. Much like we did with Rooney at the start of this season.