The run-in: some analysis

[Sussex Ram]

As Dom Dietrich might say, these are “take it or leave it” stats. Below is my attempt at showing the league position of the opponents our direct competitors face on the run in:

Portsmouth- 12 2 17 3 5 11 7- average 8.14

Derby- 14 9 1 12 10 20 24- average 12.9

Bolton- 8 18 13 1 17 23 4- average 12

P’Boro- 24 10 23 6 22 13 21 3- average 15.3

Barnsley- 20 19 16 8 18 1 9 14- average 13.1

I haven’t considered home or away ties, but on the face it Portsmouth have by far the hardest run in, playing us, Bolton and Barnsley. My personal preference would be for them to beat Barnsley and Bolton, let them take the title, and it gives us more breathing space on the final day. But looking at it another way, if we can beat them on 2 April and other results go against them, might we be looking at a title push?? I would love that, for B4 if nothing else.

Peterborough have the easiest run in and face all three bottom teams, although I noticed they are one of only four teams to play midweek before the final game of the season- which for them is a massive 6-pointer against Bolton.

Our games seem to get “easier” as time goes on, whereas others are more mixed. Portsmouth finish against one the form teams of Europe (I’d guess?) in Lincoln. Let’s see if the Imps are still averaging three goals a game by then- if they are, they might well finish 4th or 5th!

Final point- our GD is 4 better than Portsmouth, 7 better than Bolton and P’Boro and 13 better than Barnsley. That could well be the half point advantage that makes a difference come 27th April…

[tinman]

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england3&tid=10

[Chesterfield_Ram]

11 minutes ago, Sussex Ram said:

As Dom Dietrich might say, these are “take it or leave it” stats. Below is my attempt at showing the league position of the opponents our direct competitors face on the run in:

Portsmouth- 12 2 17 3 5 11 7- average 8.14

Derby- 14 9 1 12 10 20 24- average 12.9

Bolton- 8 18 13 1 17 23 4- average 12

P’Boro- 24 10 23 6 22 13 21 3- average 15.3

Barnsley- 20 19 16 8 18 1 9 14- average 13.1

I haven’t considered home or away ties, but on the face it Portsmouth have by far the hardest run in, playing us, Bolton and Barnsley. My personal preference would be for them to beat Barnsley and Bolton, let them take the title, and it gives us more breathing space on the final day. But looking at it another way, if we can beat them on 2 April and other results go against them, might we be looking at a title push?? I would love that, for B4 if nothing else.

Peterborough have the easiest run in and face all three bottom teams, although I noticed they are one of only four teams to play midweek before the final game of the season- which for them is a massive 6-pointer against Bolton.

Our games seem to get “easier” as time goes on, whereas others are more mixed. Portsmouth finish against one the form teams of Europe (I’d guess?) in Lincoln. Let’s see if the Imps are still averaging three goals a game by then- if they are, they might well finish 4th or 5th!

Final point- our GD is 4 better than Portsmouth, 7 better than Bolton and P’Boro and 13 better than Barnsley. That could well be the half point advantage that makes a difference come 27th April…

The Northampton game is an important one psychologically for us. Win and we’re 2 points behind Portsmouth and 7 in front of Bolton. This could pressurise both teams as 1 slip up from Portsmouth could leave them in second place, and a slip up from Bolton could finish off their promotion push.

Yes they’ll have a game in hand, but there are very few easy games left for Portsmouth and Bolton already have to rely on us dropping points and them gaining them.

[Matchday Fred]

4 wins should be enough. Really helpful if two of those are in the next two games, but not sure where the goals are coming from without Collins and Gayle. Hopefully most games are against teams with nothing to play for by the time we play them. Games against the bottom sides look easy on paper but they are usually fighting tooth and nail.

[eddielewis]

19 minutes ago, Sussex Ram said:

As Dom Dietrich might say, these are “take it or leave it” stats. Below is my attempt at showing the league position of the opponents our direct competitors face on the run in:

Portsmouth- 12 2 17 3 5 11 7- average 8.14

Derby- 14 9 1 12 10 20 24- average 12.9

Bolton- 8 18 13 1 17 23 4- average 12

P’Boro- 24 10 23 6 22 13 21 3- average 15.3

Barnsley- 20 19 16 8 18 1 9 14- average 13.1

I haven’t considered home or away ties, but on the face it Portsmouth have by far the hardest run in, playing us, Bolton and Barnsley. My personal preference would be for them to beat Barnsley and Bolton, let them take the title, and it gives us more breathing space on the final day. But looking at it another way, if we can beat them on 2 April and other results go against them, might we be looking at a title push?? I would love that, for B4 if nothing else.

Peterborough have the easiest run in and face all three bottom teams, although I noticed they are one of only four teams to play midweek before the final game of the season- which for them is a massive 6-pointer against Bolton.

Our games seem to get “easier” as time goes on, whereas others are more mixed. Portsmouth finish against one the form teams of Europe (I’d guess?) in Lincoln. Let’s see if the Imps are still averaging three goals a game by then- if they are, they might well finish 4th or 5th!

Final point- our GD is 4 better than Portsmouth, 7 better than Bolton and P’Boro and 13 better than Barnsley. That could well be the half point advantage that makes a difference come 27th April…

Whilst Peterborough on the face of it have the 'easiest' run in I would consider that their game against Port Vale 3 days after Wembley cup final a massive banana skin alongside that away fixture vs Cheltenham (who were unlucky not to beat Barnsley at the weekend) on the tuesday of the final week. You want to avoid teams who still have something to play for. Their constant 2 games a week schedule you would think will make them vulnerable to fatigue in games. Even their away game vs Orient before the pizza cup final you would think for those players to try and not get injured and miss playing at Wembley.

[eddielewis]

18 minutes ago, eddielewis said:

Whilst Peterborough on the face of it have the 'easiest' run in I would consider that their game against Port Vale 3 days after Wembley cup final a massive banana skin alongside that away fixture vs Cheltenham (who were unlucky not to beat Barnsley at the weekend) on the tuesday of the final week. You want to avoid teams who still have something to play for. Their constant 2 games a week schedule you would think will make them vulnerable to fatigue in games. Even their away game vs Orient before the pizza cup final you would think for those players to try and not get injured and miss playing at Wembley.

For further context on the teams near the bottom last season during the last 7 games

Cambridge Won 4 drew 1 lost 2

Morecambe Won 4 drew 1 lost 2

MK Dons Drew 5 times and Lost 2

Some teams in the relegation scrap are going to wake up and snatch points off people and I'm glad we don't play Cambridge till near the end where it might not mean much hopefully for either side.

[Matchday Fred]

90 pts should do it, 92 certainly will. Focus on that rather than what other teams are doing. Win the next game, that is all for now.

[Ghost of Clough]

We play Wycombe on the back of games against Portsmouth, Blackpool, and Peterboroguh (Pizza Cup Final). You'd expect them to be a bit tired after than run, especially if the Peterborough game goes to extra time.
We will then have Leyton Orient, Cambridge and Carlisle, you'd expect all of them to have nothing to play for by then.

I think if we're top 2 after the Portsmouth game, we'll win automatic promotion.

[sage]

1 hour ago, Chesterfield_Ram said:

The Northampton game is an important one psychologically for us. Win and we’re 2 points behind Portsmouth and 7 in front of Bolton. This could pressurise both teams as 1 slip up from Portsmouth could leave them in second place, and a slip up from Bolton could finish off their promotion push.

Yes they’ll have a game in hand, but there are very few easy games left for Portsmouth and Bolton already have to rely on us dropping points and them gaining them.

I would agree about the Northampton game. It will probably, and hopefully, be the game when we have the fewest players available.

Win this and I'd say we are odds on for top 2

[FlyBritishMidland]

3 hours ago, eddielewis said:

Whilst Peterborough on the face of it have the 'easiest' run in I would consider that their game against Port Vale 3 days after Wembley cup final a massive banana skin alongside that away fixture vs Cheltenham (who were unlucky not to beat Barnsley at the weekend) on the tuesday of the final week. You want to avoid teams who still have something to play for. Their constant 2 games a week schedule you would think will make them vulnerable to fatigue in games. Even their away game vs Orient before the pizza cup final you would think for those players to try and not get injured and miss playing at Wembley.

That’s what I’ve been think about too. Peterborough have probably got the easiest run-in, but have 9 games including the BSM Trophy Final.  And it’s compounded by the fact that they don’t play this weekend. That means they have all 9 of these games in a 30 day period, so roughly a game every 3 days.  It’s a big ask to keep momentum going over this period.

[StarterForTen]

I said to a friend before the Bolton game last Saturday that if we won four and drew four of the last eight we’d go up automatically. And if two of those wins came against Bolton and Portsmouth then we’d go up a champions.

First box was ticked at the weekend. 

[TomTom92]

4 wins sees us on 90 points. The chasing pack would need to win 6/7 to jump above us, so statistically we should really be seeing the job through. 
 
Bolton are gonners in my opinion. No way they win 6/7 with their fixtures. 
 
Posh concern me the most as their fixtures are very favourable. But as some of you have pointed out they’ll need to dig deep to keep winning playing every 3 days. Here’s hoping they get a couple of injuries like the rest of us. 
 
Barnsley’s run in is similar to ours but can’t see them overturning the deficit.

Think the season can be split in to 3 groups now: 

Northampton - we’re the only top 5 team playing. Win and we’ve cranked the pressure up big time. Draw/lose and the others will get a big boost without kicking a ball. 
  
Easter and Wycombe - 3 teams that can hurt us. Hoping Wycombe will be gassed out from the their final, so hopefully we can steal a win there.

The remaining 3 - Should really be getting 9 points. Leyton Orients season should be over by then. Cambridge have appointed a wally in Monk and Carlisle have been useless. 
 
All in all plenty to be positive about. Just hope Barkz and Gayle aren’t out for too long.

[Sussex Ram]

As you can all tell, I had totally forgotten about the BSM cup. I also hadn’t fully appreciated the weird timings of the games, meaning we’ll have played 2 more than Barnsley and P’Boro this time next week. This all plays in our favour (assuming we get a positive result against Northampton) as you’d always rather have points on the board than games in hand- even if against lower placed sides. 

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

93 is the magic number

[Jubbs]

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/who-will-win-promotion-from-league-one/

Opta has us at 73.3% (22.6% chance of first) chance of automatic promotion, rising 21.3% after the Bolton win. 

[Chopper]

5 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

We play Wycombe on the back of games against Portsmouth, Blackpool, and Peterboroguh (Pizza Cup Final). You'd expect them to be a bit tired after than run, especially if the Peterborough game goes to extra time.

Dunno, Wycombe could be up for it. If they sell out their carpark again, threaten the EFL with some litigation and spend the week training hard at their natural strengths like kicking puppies and stealing toys from orphans they may be a tough challenge. 

[Turk Thrust]

All these stats leave me cold. If they win and we draw and the third team lose and the second win etc etc. If my aunt had b******* she’d be my uncle etc.   If we could predict accurately we would all be millionaires. Just take it a game at a time

[MaltRam]

13 minutes ago, Turk Thrust said:

All these stats leave me cold. If they win and we draw and the third team lose and the second win etc etc. If my aunt had b******* she’d be my uncle etc.   If we could predict accurately we would all be millionaires. Just take it a game at a time

Came here to say similar. I love the stats, the what ifs and all of it...but by Monday night it is time to park it again for a bit.

Lose at Northampton and it's all to c***. 

[europia]

26 minutes ago, Turk Thrust said:

All these stats leave me cold. If they win and we draw and the third team lose and the second win etc etc. If my aunt had b******* she’d be my uncle etc.   If we could predict accurately we would all be millionaires. Just take it a game at a time

Yes, it really is a case of a game at a time. Plenty of twists and turns and it will probably go down to the last couple of games. With Gayle out, our strike force is significantly depleted again. So Warney's immediate challenge is to find a solution for that problem. 

[FindernRam]

My Catfish ate the second Pea I dropped in and he/she is never wrong. Then it ate the fish that ate the first  Pea. 

So: We'll finish second then whoever finishes first will go into administration and get docked 10 points!