Matchday Thread - Fleetwood Town v Derby County (20/08 15:00)

[RodleyRam]

21 hours ago, Patrick Rams said:

When I look at the updated league table and see that we Derby County... the biggest team in this league... are the joint lowest scorers in the division.. along with Shrewsbury and Morecambe.. then yes I'm feeling very frustrated and a little worried.Not particularly just this season but the last 3 years with Liam as coach with basically the same system.We have struggled massively to score away from home.I believe last season we lost 8 or 9 games on the trot before the Blackpool match with us barely scoring...lots of those games we lost 1-0. Sadly so far in 3 away games the same pattern is developing..not a single goal scored. It shows this system away from home is simply not working and it needs to change fast or our hopes of top six will be dashed.

Watch the games, look at the stats. It's a different side, a different style and a different system. Accepted the outcomes are similar to date but we stand a much better chance of improving from this baseline. The only thing missing is a goal, which will come.

[Ramarena]

One thing that’s cropped up a couple of times from posters is that we need to go out and get a quality striker.

We’ve got a wage cap, can’t pay transfer fees and all signings must fit the EFL business plan and be given the ok by them.

I pretty sure it’s not as easy as some are making out!

[Carl Sagan]

1 hour ago, Crewton said:

He's had an hour each game v Mansfield and Barnsley, and a half-hour plus stoppage time in each of the other games, so it's not "a few minutes each match". I'd also take issue with your last statement there, because I think he's had a bigger impact in his sub appearances than when he's started (though I don't think he's played badly in those games either) BUT he hasn't scored in 4 hours of football either. So there isn't allot of evidence that your opinion is more valid than Rosenior's right now. He's contributing well off the bench in particular, but he has the same problem as the rest of the team - converting chances and half-chances that come his way.

BTW - if his 'football brain' was as refined as you seem to be suggesting, he'd be spending more time annoying the opposition and less time being annoyed by them and reacting to provocations.

Mansfield doesn't count as it was League Cup and a second string. I don't doubt Sibbs will start against WBA in the cup again. Against Barnsley, his only league start, he didn't even get an hour and was first to be subbed. I would say not only does Sibley look our most likely scorer when he's on the pitch, the whole team looks more likely to score when he's on the pitch. But you're right he hasn't scored yet, though he's had far fewer minutes than almost anyone else.

FWIW WhoScored ranks him above Barkhuizen, Collins, Smith, Dobbin and McGoldrick. The site suggests only 3 of our players are prepared to shoot: Collins, Mendez-Laing and Sibley. https://www.whoscored.com/Teams/20/Show/England-Derby

[Guest]

7 hours ago, chadlad said:

Having watched the highlights it looks like we had a lot of half chances to score but nothing really clear cut. Even the Knight header was quite a difficult opportunity.

The best chance was McGoldrick’s near the end from a few yards out which he really should have buried.

Fine margins. As you say, McGoldrick should have scored, as should Stearman with his header at Shrewsbury. Those that were at Charlton know we had a multitude of chances but we were thwarted when Collins hit the post and Knight misdirected his header from point blank range across an open goal. Even the Charlton fans agreed we were much the better team. They were delighted by their luck. We have been the dominant team in all five games so far. We have eight points from 15 and sit just below the play-off positions because as yet we have not overcome our problem in hitting the back of the net which has plagued us for two years. But I think we are very close to that now. Had we taken the chances I have alluded to, we would now be sitting top of the table.

In the away games we have faced three goalkeepers who, on the day, performed at the top of their game and at Shrewsbury and Fleetwood, we faced defences that also performed in the same vein. We have created many chances that we have failed to take so far but I have seen enough in the past 61 years to give me confidence that this new team will get better.

I am an 'Uncle Albert' who has seen all the periods of Derby County that any fan younger than me has seen. I  saw Derby County's greatest two sides, managed by Brian Clough and Dave Mackay and their worst, managed by Billy Davies and Paul Jewell. That is my opinion, based on watching all of the sides since 1961. The only flaw in my opinion is that it discounts the 1946 Cup winning team who didn't compete that season in EFL competition but were unbeaten in every game they played in two-legged ties, home and away, a semi-final. that went to a replay and the single game at Wembley. Is there anyone on here who can tell me that those opinions are wrong and count for nothing? Isn't the reason that most of us come on here to share our opinions for discussion?

Although last night I was told in this thread to cast my opinions to one side and just concentrate on what the statistics tell us from the first five games, because the analysis of points to us ending the season in a position of mid-table mediocrity.

Well I'll interpret what those raw statistics alone tell us, if you ignore all of the variables which you could use to forecast a range of positions where we might finish the season. Even then, the range identified would not not be wholly reliable because we cannot determine precisely the variables we will encounter, such as injuries, suspensions, just how well the fans perform in supporting our team what old-fashioned good luck and misfortune will bring us. 

But the raw statistics so far could be used to suggest we will become the first team in the history of the EFL to win 69 points out of 69 at home, while only winning 15 points on the road, to finish with 84 points overall.

That would normally give us at least a guaranteed play-off place at the end of the season and with an outside chance of finishing in the top two, based on the final positions in the third tier over the past 20 seasons; Forest and Birmingham finished second with 82 and 83 points respectively, while Southend were champions with 82. Burton finished second with 85.

A final total of 84 exactly is unlikely but not impossible but it would certainly leave us well above mid table mediocrity as was suggested is our final destiny last night. But it is extremely unlikely that we will end the season with a 100% home record nor with such a measly return of 15 points away if we do hit 84. The methodology used is too crude.

For in 1971-72 when we became champions for the first time, having gone undefeated in our first 12 games but then went on a worrying run of six away defeats, while fortunately maintaining our home form which ultimately saw us lose only once at the Baseball Ground. Even the best can suffer a worrying run in a season and still finish on top. Similarly, Mackay’s champions stood 10th at the New Year before going on to win the League. No team has ever stood lower in the table post-Christmas and then go on to become Champions. I explained last night that Clough’s second Division champions took just three points from the first five games and then went on to run away with the title. Even in the disastrous 11-points season we to took four points off of Newcastle and we were just a minute away from taking all six. Did that make us a better team than the Toon? Of course it didn’t.

“Lies, damned lies and statistics” is a phrase describing the persuasive power of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent’s point.

If we ran a poll on here to forecast our final tally there will be several posters who arrive at  exactly the correct number. Many will not. They would do that based on their opinions and outlook. The number of  posters partaking would be a bigger sample size of DCFC fans than does the results of the first five games of the season to work out our destiny. Using the  raw statistical method I have put forward based on what was suggested last night, we would all arrive at the same crude answer.

Footballing opinions matter, not those wholly based on statistics. That would just make life boring and surely that’s not why we love this game and this club so much. So keep on expressing your opinions, they’re far more interesting than numbers.

COYR

Edited August 21, 2022 by Brailsford Ram

[plymouthram]

6 hours ago, chadlad said:

Having watched the highlights it looks like we had a lot of half chances to score but nothing really clear cut. Even the Knight header was quite a difficult opportunity.

The best chance was McGoldrick’s near the end from a few yards out which he really should have buried.

Also watched the highlights and paused it at 3.18minutes to see their goalkeeper with both feet behind his line and also the ball. Most of the Derby players close to it raised their arms to celebrate a goal that was not given.

[RoyMac5]

36 minutes ago, LeedsCityRam said:

I suspect many will share your ultimate ambition for the season, even if I believe its a likely 2 year project. Its all too easy to remember how hollowed out the club has been...With respect to 'gradual improvement', that refers as much to the inevitable improvement in executing our style as the results. We have a new manager who in turn is a managerial novice with a mostly new squad, getting them to play in a particular way (i.e. not just results driven). Stands to reason that will take time & we will get progressively better at it as season goes on.

We've done the vast majority of the 'rebuilding' and it looks good - some was pre-planned over summer whoever the owner was.

This is of course the crux of the matter - ever was it thus.

[Ram-Alf]

16 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

Also watched the highlights and paused it at 3.18minutes to see their goalkeeper with both feet behind his line and also the ball. Most of the Derby players close to it raised their arms to celebrate a goal that was not given.

3.18...

[Tamworthram]

2 hours ago, angieram said:

Just a small point about yesterday. Their flag bearers marched their flag across the home end accompanied by flares, which they held aloft.

How does that reconcile with stadium bans on flares? 

I’ve not seen it but there is a bit of difference between flares being held (presumably they’re safe to hold) in an organised way on an open area compared to those being let off by random people in a closely packed and potentially rowdy crowd.

[Tyler Durden]

20 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

Also watched the highlights and paused it at 3.18minutes to see their goalkeeper with both feet behind his line and also the ball. Most of the Derby players close to it raised their arms to celebrate a goal that was not given.

There were Derby players claiming the ball had crossed the line whom were stood on the edge of the penalty area.

Don't think even our player's have Marvel X-ray vision to see through a crowd of players and be able to tell a 3 dimensional perspective face on.

I dunno if it went in or not btw only the Fleetwood goalie will know that.

[Ellafella]

55 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

Accumulated evidence (after 6 games, 3 won, 2 drawn and one loss). Take the cup game out of the equation and if we stay on that form over the 46 games we will finish on approx 74 points which on last season's League one table would put us in 8th place. But take the 2 draws (we were the far better side in both and they could have been wins). The defeat at Charlton also could have been a win or at least a draw. Of course it's an opinion that the team will get fitter, gel better and find the goal scoring touch. It could be another persons opinion that we could get worse (but I, along with many others doubt that).

We’re not debating where we’ll finish @plymouthram; we’re debating team set up & structure & whether we have had 270 minutes of “unlucky not to score” or if we need to tweak and re-think tactics. No hidden agenda, no “Liam out” mob, simply debating football. That’s where I come from. The hypothesis is have we really just been unlucky or do we need a tweak here and there and is our approach to away games right?

We have P’boro next week. Should be interesting. 

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

There were Derby players claiming the ball had crossed the line whom were stood on the edge of the penalty area.

Don't think even our player's have Marvel X-ray vision to see through a crowd of players and be able to tell a 3 dimensional perspective face on.

I dunno if it went in or not btw only the Fleetwood goalie will know that.

Well in that shot vicar, there is one Derby player on the edge of the box with his hands half raised. Without the benefit of the moving picture I cannot tell if he is appealing or he is in some anticipation of a pending celebration if it becomes apparent that we have just scored. You seem to completely ignore the fact the picture shows four Derby and six Fleetwood players in close proximity to the goalkeeper who might be in a good position to judge whether the ball has crossed the line or not. We don't know from the linesman if he could be sure or was not sure that the ball had not crossed the line. In both cases he would not be able to signal a goal. The referee is in no position to make judgement. If you're going to comment at least have a stab at a complete interpretation instead of just your usual negative bias against the Derby perspective.

[jimtastic56]

1 hour ago, ollycutts1982 said:

Not concerned one bit. The goals and therefore wins will come. I agree with what has been said that we seem abit laboured in our play. LR yesterday was screaming for the ball to be switched many a time and each time it never was or by the time it did the space had gone. We need to take risks at times to get us up the pitch quicker. Usual problem these past few years that we seem scared to play forward incase we lose the ball. Many of these teams will sit and happily watch us play round at the back. We could quite easily have won all 3 away games and there wouldn’t be an issue.
 

One frustrating thing yesterday was at the final whistle a few “fans” shouting abuse at LR. Utter stupidity. I thought we’d lost these morons last season. ??. Very short memories some folk. 

I think one thing that concerns a few fans is that since 2014 we have had 4 failed attempts in the play-offs. We know what a lottery they are. With a goalscorer in the team , I am sure we could make top 2. However as many have said , we should be grateful to still have a club.

[Crewton]

55 minutes ago, Unlucky Alf said:

3.18...

Oi ref! Forget that 'ball over the line" nonsense - how about a penalty for the Fleetwood defender holding the Derby player right infront of you? No? OK, maybe it was a Gentlemen's Excuse-Me!

[Tyler Durden]

41 minutes ago, Brailsford Ram said:

We don't know from the linesman if he could be sure or was not sure that the ball had not crossed the line. In both cases he would not be able to signal a goal. The referee is in no position to make judgement. If you're going to comment at least have a stab at a complete interpretation instead of just your usual negative bias against the Derby perspective.

I did actually say in my post that only the Fleetwood goalie knows whether the ball crossed the line......so how you've come to the conclusion that's it was meant as some negative bias as fundamentally we both agree with your statement in bold.

Anyhows upwards and onwards. 

[jono]

1 hour ago, Ellafella said:

We’re not debating where we’ll finish @plymouthram; we’re debating team set up & structure & whether we have had 270 minutes of “unlucky not to score” or if we need to tweak and re-think tactics. No hidden agenda, no “Liam out” mob, simply debating football. That’s where I come from. The hypothesis is have we really just been unlucky or do we need a tweak here and there and is our approach to away games right?

We have P’boro next week. Should be interesting. 

It’s interesting that it’s Peterborough. We ran the show there last season but lost to a sucker punch so in a sense it might be a “let’s see what we can do this time. ! “
 

I think we’ve been unlucky, pure and simple, but I also believe these things do switch around. The only troublesome thought is if the “bad luck” continues then it can get in players heads, much as @angieram was alluding too further back in the thread about snatching at chances. The good side is that for the most part the “bad luck” has meant a draw rather than a loss. 

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

12 minutes ago, jono said:

It’s interesting that it’s Peterborough. We ran the show there last season but lost to a sucker punch so in a sense it might be a “let’s see what we can do this time. ! “
 

I think we’ve been unlucky, pure and simple, but I also believe these things do switch around. The only troublesome thought is if the “bad luck” continues then it can get in players heads, much as @angieram was alluding too further back in the thread about snatching at chances. The good side is that for the most part the “bad luck” has meant a draw rather than a loss. 

They have 2 very decent forwards at this level.  one of whom we never got the best of at Derby with injury, confidence and a complete disregard for his natural attributes as an in the box finisher .  I fancy them to win the league as they have goals .  Most strikers in this league appear to be turd and it will make the difference. 

[Foreveram]

1 hour ago, Brailsford Ram said:

Well in that shot vicar, there is one Derby player on the edge of the box with his hands half raised. Without the benefit of the moving picture I cannot tell if he is appealing or he is in some anticipation of a pending celebration if it becomes apparent that we have just scored. You seem to completely ignore the fact the picture shows four Derby and six Fleetwood players in close proximity to the goalkeeper who might be in a good position to judge whether the ball has crossed the line or not. We don't know from the linesman if he could be sure or was not sure that the ball had not crossed the line. In both cases he would not be able to signal a goal. The referee is in no position to make judgement. If you're going to comment at least have a stab at a complete interpretation instead of just your usual negative bias against the Derby perspective.

If only we could have some sort of camera on the line sort of thingy.

[Elwood P Dowd]

34 minutes ago, Foreveram said:

If only we could have some sort of camera on the line sort of thingy.

You will be asking for a man on the moon next ?

[Ram-Alf]

36 minutes ago, Foreveram said:

If only we could have some sort of camera on the line sort of thingy.

Do they not have the bell in the ball thingy that signals a goal when crossing the line??‍♀️

[Elwood P Dowd]

15 minutes ago, Unlucky Alf said:

Do they not have the bell in the ball thingy that signals a goal when crossing the line??‍♀️

I don’t think so, too expensive