Derby vs Port Vale

[FKANorwichExile]

A few musings now I've had chance to reflect;

TJJ has got a bit of a swagger about him, and I feel like we're desperate for some of that borderline-arrogant confidence. At the same time, he seemed quite humbled by the fan reaction to the goal. After his little dance and celebration, you could see him mouth "thank you" to the crowd. Or it could have been "f*** you" and I suck at lip reading, so make of that what you will.

Port Vale aren't a bad team, despite not creating much they looked more than capable of doing so. Plus their kit is gorgeous.

I actually think we look better as a back 3, as long as Foz isn't on the right because you could see him panic every time the ball came to him. Nelson and Cashin have been sensational recently.

Nyambe had one of his poorest games for us and didn't look comfortable going forwards at all. I think a back three of Nyambe, Nelson and Cashin could be sensational with fit wingbacks though.

Wilson is a joy. It a shame he isn't left footed so we can't get him and Ward in the same side. He's not a winger, though.

The away support was sensational and incredibly loud on the Rams TV coverage! Well done all, hope the hangover on a school night isn't too painful.

Anyway, back in my box.

 

[Crewton]

53 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Scoff at data all you want, that's what all the top clubs operate with. You were the one to mention shots on target as an accurate barometer of chance creation, xG is a far superior metric, you just don't like the answer it gives. 

No, I associated shots on target with the only way the ball usually ends up in the net. I know that creating chances is important, but an xG of 5 is useless if it doesn't result in any shots on target. QED.

[Ambitious]

A good win against a team who really left everything out on the pitch. Credit to Vale, who I thought would fold under the slightest bit of pressure, but they were a lot better than I expected and a lot of teams we have played this season. No wins in 11 looks bad, but they’re losing games to the finest of margins which must be a nightmare for their fans, staff and players. 

Despite the win, I felt it was very on trend with our season and performances so far. We are so inefficient with our final third entries, which has been a cornerstone of this Derby side under Warne since he got into the job. McGoldrick was able to pull some rabbits out of the hat last season, but we don’t have that this season and often I come away baffled by our lack of cutting edge and innovation in the final third: too many crosses just being hit in blindly or fizzed across straight into the first man. Warne and Co can surely draw up some designs for final third entires so the players have a vague idea of how to approach it - it looks very disjointed in the final play of our build up, whereas the build up before hand often looks good. Lack of composure or whatever it is, definitely is a flaw in our game that needs to improve.

We have five league games of this calendar year - Leyton Orient, Wycombe, Lincoln, Wigan and Oxford. Three away from home. Ideally we get ourselves into position that the Oxford game could see us go above them, that’s got to be the aim, get within striking distance. Four league wins on the bounce should breed confidence going into December. 

[Yoxoram]

We have won four games in a row in the league and yet there is still negative comments. I despair sometimes.

[cannable]

1 hour ago, McArthur Park said:

Back from the match and what's not to like! 3 points, 4 league wins on the spin, a goal in front of the away end, and Waggy starting the  bounce! Going to bed happy! 

What’s not to like? 
 

The traffic? The s******* ground? 😂

[cannable]

34 minutes ago, Yoxoram said:

We have won four games in a row in the league and yet there is still negative comments. I despair sometimes.

Not that I’ve made any negative comments 

But the McClaren team ruined football for me, I compare all subsequent Derby teams to it and I likely will until it’s bettered/I die 😂

[Bris Vegas]

1 hour ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

We're in the 3rd division as the previous owner put us into administration. The EFL then took a chance to stick the boot in by stopping us keeping a 40 year old player, whilst allowing others under embargo to bring in large scale loan reinforcement and also stopped us giving proper contracts to kids on minimal wage that would have  expedited a swifter return on relegation, whilst dumping 9 more points of deduction based on accounting rules that didn't exist.  They followed this up by allowing a couple of chancers to go the faux 'revenge' mission, holding up any sale that may have given us a chance and forcing a sale of the best youngsters and Shinnie for some magic beans.

Derby are in this position because of recruitment. Recruitment is what makes teams either successful or not.

Clubs that actually use intricate statistical data such as Brighton and Brentford have exceeded expectations because their recruitment has seen them purchase players with huge potential while selling players for big fees to fund their progress.

Clubs like Derby meanwhile just saw somebody like Nick Blackman was scoring goals elsewhere and signed him without any thought of why he is scoring goals, what his best position is and how he can fit in to Derby’s current playing style. 

We broke a club record fee on a player just because he became available hours previously. He wasn’t even a target. We had no idea where he would fit in. Literally an agent just called Derby and said this player is available, and Derby said yes we will buy him.

That is why we are in the third division. No plan on recruitment. Just throwing cash around like it’s confetti. We had 5 years of careful recruitment under Nigel Clough ruined in just one summer by Mel.

XG in isolation doesn’t mean much. We beat Port Vale. We had an XG of 0.7. All that matters is we scored, they didn’t, 3 points. However, in terms of the bigger picture, statistical data plays a huge role in modern football.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

2 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

Derby are in this position because of recruitment. Recruitment is what makes teams either successful or not.

Clubs that actually use intricate statistical data such as Brighton and Brentford have exceeded expectations because their recruitment has seen them purchase players with huge potential while selling players for big fees to fund their progress.

Clubs like Derby meanwhile just saw somebody like Nick Blackman was scoring goals elsewhere and signed him without any thought of why he is scoring goals, what his best position is and how he can fit in to Derby’s current playing style. 

We broke a club record fee on a player just because he became available hours previously. He wasn’t even a target. We had no idea where he would fit in. Literally an agent just called Derby and said this player is available, and Derby said yes we will buy him.

That is why we are in the third division. No plan on recruitment. Just throwing cash around like it’s confetti. We had 5 years of careful recruitment under Nigel Clough ruined in just one summer by Mel.

XG in isolation doesn’t mean much. We beat Port Vale. We had an XG of 0.7. All that matters is we scored, they didn’t, 3 points. However, in terms of the bigger picture, statistical data plays a huge role in modern football.

Far as I can see XG has no relation to a bloke with a few hundred million who decided to head off rather than covering debt he'd ran up or a tiresome twosome chasing the ambulance, or indeed a pissed off EFL having a wet dream over how they could retrospectively f*** up a club for years by enforcing accounting rules which didn't exist.

Clubs buy crap players all the time and spend crazy wages.  For a few years they are well up like Southampton and then they're not. Leicester won the league with Huth, Mahrez, Kante and Vardy who cost a bag of sherbet.  Then they were millions in the crap.   Statistics make no difference and I certainly wouldn't need them too let me know Blackman, Butterfield and Anya were crap buys, just the eyes I'd seen them with. 

[sage]

3 hours ago, Crewton said:

No, I associated shots on target with the only way the ball usually ends up in the net. I know that creating chances is important, but an xG of 5 is useless if it doesn't result in any shots on target. QED.

The shots on target isn't always a good reflection if the stats don't include shots blocked.

Xg is a better reflection 

[Dcfcsr92]

Good win, yet very boring football again. Don't enjoy watching the style we play but a wins a win get us out this league and then concentrate on building from there. 

[Mucker1884]

7 hours ago, B4’s Sister said:

Kept a clean sheet tonight @Mucker1884 😃

Damn it girl, I think you might just be on to something! 😁

… and long may it continue! 
🤞🐏👍❤️

[Anag Ram]

13 minutes ago, Dcfcsr92 said:

Good win, yet very boring football again. Don't enjoy watching the style we play but a wins a win get us out this league and then concentrate on building from there. 

It’s boring football because it’s a ‘boring’ league. The lack of real quality means the ball spends a lot of time in the air. 

However, we wouldn’t be calling it boring if we had someone up front or running from midfield who could put away some of the crosses put in by Wilson, NML and Co.

The fact they are headed or hoofed away leaves the spectator disgruntled.
 

[Dcfcsr92]

2 minutes ago, Anag Ram said:

It’s boring football because it’s a ‘boring’ league. The lack of real quality means the ball spends a lot of time in the air. 

However, we wouldn’t be calling it boring if we had someone up front or running from midfield who could put away some of the crosses put in by Wilson, NML and Co.

The fact they are headed or hoofed away leaves the spectator disgruntled.
 

I know I'm not having a dig thats why I said about getting out the league and building from there, I don't feel it's up front I feel its hourihane letting the midfield down recently 

[Chester40]

8 hours ago, IslandExile said:

Never let it be said that he doesn't get the opportunity.

Oh ..come on. All this pathetic nit-picking when we have won is beyond ridicule. 

However....Shaun Barker constantly referring to James Collins as 'Collo' on Ramstv,  should result in him being whipped through the streets, absolutely drives me mad.

[Anag Ram]

24 minutes ago, Dcfcsr92 said:

I know I'm not having a dig thats why I said about getting out the league and building from there, I don't feel it's up front I feel its hourihane letting the midfield down recently 

Yeah, I wasn’t suggesting you were having a dig and I’m often frustrated as many others are. We see a player get to the byline and we’re all preparing for something exciting and then all too often it falls flat.

If we can find a finisher we will fly into the autos.

[G STAR RAM]

7 hours ago, Malty said:

If your statement is right then 0.7 is too low. 9/10 = 0.9 goals. Then you need to add however-many for the goal we actually scored. So, following your statement the expected goals is >0.9 and not 0.7.
 

In conclusion either your statement is wrong and 9 out of 10 times Fornah’s deflected shot doesn’t actually go in or xG is incorrect.

Take your pick.

You're just reiterating what I was saying?

xG is just a nothingness stat that doesn't mean anything. 

[IlsonDerby]

8 hours ago, Andicis said:

I think the concern is really that we haven't clicked. We're doing just enough, but I worry that it isn't sustainable in the long run. 

This is my one concern but I’m pinning everything on us getting even more successful when we ‘finally click’ 

7 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

That sort of thinking is why clubs like Derby are in the 3rd division while clubs like Brighton are playing in Europe.

 

I’m a fan of xG but this is b*******. Brighton are in Europe because their owner has an intricate understanding of statistics within football. There’s still plenty of Brighton fans that think the only important stat is goals scored etc. 

[G STAR RAM]

7 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

That sort of thinking is why clubs like Derby are in the 3rd division while clubs like Brighton are playing in Europe.

Derby are in the 3rd division because of going into administration and supposedly breaching P&S rules, not sure what that has got to do with xG?

 

[G STAR RAM]

7 hours ago, uttoxram75 said:

I managed to play, watch and understand football for over 50 years without xG. Just wondered if i've missed out on some wisdom that would have made me a better player or fan?

Yep, if you'd have known about xG you'd have been playing in Europe apparently. 

[G STAR RAM]

5 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

Derby are in this position because of recruitment.

I stopped reading here.

We are not in League One because of recruitment.