Playoffs

[Bris Vegas]

They’re looking pretty certain now right?

10 games remaining. Even if we pick up a mediocre 15 points from that lot, Wycombe would have to win 7 of their last 11 to overhaul us. That’s not going to happen.

They say the playoffs are a lottery.

But for me it has that feel of when we reached the playoffs under Gary Rowett. Feels like we are in there with better sides than ourselves. 

[PistoldPete]

3 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

They’re looking pretty certain now right?

10 games remaining. Even if we pick up a mediocre 15 points from that lot, Wycombe would have to win 7 of their last 11 to overhaul us. That’s not going to happen.

They say the playoffs are a lottery.

But for me it has that feel of when we reached the playoffs under Gary Rowett. Feels like we are in there with better sides than ourselves. 

I had thought a few games back that playoffs were certain, then we had a wobble. Thankfully Wycombe seemed to have wobbled too , them losing their manager helped us. Us not losing to Shrewsbury (which was a bit of a relief after we blew a 2-0 lead) helped too but it's still not certain by any means.

[OssieEnd]

This is where we are. 

 

There's nobody to fear . Nobody. 

[Tamworthram]

19 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

They’re looking pretty certain now right?

10 games remaining. Even if we pick up a mediocre 15 points from that lot, Wycombe would have to win 7 of their last 11 to overhaul us. That’s not going to happen.

They say the playoffs are a lottery.

But for me it has that feel of when we reached the playoffs under Gary Rowett. Feels like we are in there with better sides than ourselves. 

Although it's looking a lot better after yesterday's results, it's still too early in my book to be starting this thread.

[JPRamFan]

If Wycombe win their game in hand on Tuesday, they will only be 4 points behind us. Still a long way to go.

[Tyler Durden]

And we've also lost playoffs when we were arguably the better team out of the 4. 

You can slag the playoffs but this season if it was the old format then we wouldn't have realistically finished in 3rd place so this season is an opportunity for us to exploit.

Whether we do or not is a totally different matter. 

[Gritstone Ram]

I think Wednesday and Ipswich will get automatic. I think we’re in with a good chance. I think with better game management we could have beat Plymouth twice and Barnsley was a wobble. Bolton were outclassed at Pride Park.

[Alty_Ram]

7 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Although it's looking a lot better after yesterday's results, it's still too early in my book to be starting this thread.

Well quite. One bad set of results and suddenly we're only 4 points ahead but will have played a game more. We're in very patchy form. There's a lot to do still.

[Carl Sagan]

Feels like it. According to Nate Silver there is a 10% chance we finish 7th and a 3% chance we finish 8th  (I'm surprised those numbers are so high), but otherwise we're on for the playoff campaign. And according to him we are the most likely team in the division to finish in the playoffs.

As I've said in the 14 games thread, this is what we need to plan for from now on. Currently there are several better teams than us. We need to find a way to make ourselves a better team, and to time our form so we're peaking at the end of the season.

We're most likely to finish 5th. I would rather finish 4th (second leg at home) or 6th (against the team crushed not to have made the automatics after such a great season), but that's for closer to the end when we see how it's shaping up. Whether we rest some players for the last couple of games of the regular season (or the two before Wednesday away on the final day which will be a lap of honour for them anyway), or have to keep pushing all the way to the end. Warne knows better than anyone how to win promotion from this league so I'm sure it's something he's thinking about.

[Ellafella]

Still plenty to play for & far too soon to start concluding the season; Bird’s injury has shown how things can change; injuries to others would also screw us. Enjoy the present; we had a great run. We can have another. Plymouth I think will slide. Ipswich will re-take their place. Wendies are probably safely champions. But it’s football and it can flip. 

[OssieEnd]

I repeat. 

 

This IS where we are. 

There is NOBODY to fear. 

 

 

COYR 

[Carl Sagan]

22 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

Still plenty to play for & far too soon to start concluding the season; Bird’s injury has shown how things can change; injuries to others would also screw us. Enjoy the present; we had a great run. We can have another. Plymouth I think will slide. Ipswich will re-take their place. Wendies are probably safely champions. But it’s football and it can flip. 

If we were third, ten points behind, there would still be a chance of autos. Perhaps there'd be a tiny possibility if we were fourth, and ten points behind. But we're fifth, well behind the top four. That means not only do Plymouth need to collapse for us to get autos, but so do Ipswich and Barnsley. All in the space of ten games, all three sides suddenly having a catastrophic run of form. That's why the autos are gone and the season is, to an extent, now concluded. We will finish in the playoffs. How we give ourselves the best chance of winning them has become the most important question.

Edit: Hopefully this link is the form table for the last 10 games https://thefishy.co.uk/formtable.php?table=3#last10

Remarkably, the top 9 in the table are the top 9 in the form table. That shows the remarkable consistency at the top of League One. The lowest points anyone in the top 9 has got over the last 10 games is 16. We're not capable of getting 27 points from our last 10 games, to have an outside chance of overhauling anyone.

Edited March 12, 2023 by Carl Sagan

[Elwood P Dowd]

4 minutes ago, OssieEnd said:

I repeat. 

 

This IS where we are. 

There is NOBODY to fear. 

 

 

COYR 

As long as we are in the playoffs in doesn’t really matter where we finish. It would be nice to have the second leg of the playoffs at home but sometimes that doesn’t produce the desired result just ask a Leeds fan ?????????

[Wolfie20]

1 hour ago, Gritstone Ram said:

I think Wednesday and Ipswich will get automatic. I think we’re in with a good chance. I think with better game management we could have beat Plymouth twice and Barnsley was a wobble. Bolton were outclassed at Pride Park.

I wouldn’t rule Barnsley out of one of the automatic slots - they have some difficult games coming up but they're on a great run with 8 wins and 2 draws  in their last 10 matches. Get through the next 3 fixtures unscathed and on paper they have quite an easy run-in. Assuming we get to the play-offs I'd rather face Ipswich or Plymouth than Barnsley but let's make sure we're there firstl

[MackworthRamIsGod]

Wouldn't it be great if Sibley finds the kind of goal scoring form he showed when he first burst onto the scene.

Would be amazing to see us promoted with a local lad taking us up.

[Jourdan]

80 points is our target, so in that sense, we still have work to do. It’s in our hands, which is what is most important.

16 points from 10 games sounds simple enough but a few unfavourable results would put us under pressure once again.

I don’t think we can get too comfortable. Who would have seen Burton beating Wycombe yesterday? Or Cheltenham beating Peterborough? There are bound to be more twists and turns to come.

I am also not worried about who we get should we finish up in the play-offs. There is very little to separate the teams in the mix. We can beat anyone on our day and we can also be beaten if we have an off day or make mistakes at key times.

The question is whether we can dig down deep and find something from within to give the play-offs a really good go. I think players, fans and coaches are starting to feel the effects of a long, gruelling season.

[TheresOnlyWanChope]

2 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

They’re looking pretty certain now right?

10 games remaining. Even if we pick up a mediocre 15 points from that lot, Wycombe would have to win 7 of their last 11 to overhaul us. That’s not going to happen.

They say the playoffs are a lottery.

But for me it has that feel of when we reached the playoffs under Gary Rowett. Feels like we are in there with better sides than ourselves. 

No way are they certain. Patchy form, not in them yet. Wycombe could easily win enough to overhaul Derby. Would be disappointing to drop out now but uncertain away form in particular. I think playoffs would be a solid achievement this season.

[OssieEnd]

Ugly. Dirty.Wins

 

 

And we are Play Off bound

 

 

 

I fear NOBODY in the Play Offs. 

Edited March 12, 2023 by OssieEnd
Tryin to reduce the space between my paragraphs

[Tamworthram]

3 minutes ago, OssieEnd said:

Ugly. Dirty.Wins

 

 

And we are Play Off bound

 

 

 

I fear NOBODY in the Play Offs. 

OK. I think we've got your message. ?

[InstaRam]

Would be nice to get another swing at Plymouth, it hurts to have been beaten by that lot twice this season and hopefully the squad could use that at motivation. Long way still tough, think L1 have some rocky roads yet to pass.