Radio Derby all in for Warne tonight

[Ram-Alf]

11 minutes ago, NottmRAM said:

Come on - everyone was jumping for joy at every single signing. Not one person said "this is a team that will have 27 shots and not score"

Most of those signings plus the ones that stayed could have gone to Championship clubs. LR got them to sign for Derby. Now you're saying they were the wrong players?

Where on this god damn earth have I said they were the wrong players, You've highlighted this..."These are LRs signings embargo or not"

 

[Ghost of Clough]

24 minutes ago, Anon said:

I'm not disagreeing with the trend or the data. I'm saying there isn't enough of it to make a meaningful judgement. I understand percentages, presenting the same data in a different way won't change my mind.

In your opinion. Looking at recent managers win % doesn't change by much after their 12th game in all competitions.
By 7 games played, Clement was performing worse than he did overall, whilst Lampard and McClaren were performing better.
By 12 games played, all except Lampard and McClaren had reached their final level.

Most people can make the judgement that Rosenior was doing better with this group of players than Warne is.
This initial assessment can be backed up with what you actually see on the pitch. We've gone from having a clear identity and way of playing, and a squad which only needed a couple of additions to make the system work even better, to everyone (fans and players) not having a clue what they should be doing on the pitch, and needing 7 or more players to shape the squad to how Warne wants for the 2nd half of the season.

[angieram]

3 hours ago, LeedsCityRam said:

Some excellent points made on this thread.

As a general rule I hate changing managers & am loathe to call for Warne's head until well into next year - results haven't been that bad at all but the mood around the club is starting to darken. What disturbs me most is the lack of pragmatism which suggests he has one way of playing & isn't prepared to adjust that for the players he has at his disposal.

In time Warne may well be successful here but I don't believe that will be this season. He needs at least 2 windows to bring in the type of players he needs (made harder by the EFL imposed business plan) & a full pre-season to implement the style he believes will win games. Not unlike Bielsa at Leeds, I'd expect us next August to hit the ground running but the question is do the fans & Board have the patience to withstand a tricky few months until then knowing that the style is always likely to be crude even if results do start to go our way eventually. Then we have the longer term consideration of the effect on the Academy (what kind of players do we now need to churn out) & whether Warneball is our preferred long-term style i.e. if Warne doesn't work out, we would need to appoint another high intensity, direct coach given the players he is likely to have at the club if he is here longer than a year.

I think the Board need to have a thorough review of their 3 year plan for DCFC - some (including the media) will have assumed Warne was brought in to get a quick promotion but I'd argue he is going to take just as long as Rosenior would but with more upheaval throughout the club & fanbase. Is that what they wanted when they made the appointment? I doubt it.

This is a great summary. 

Of course, we will know whether Warne will prove to be flexible in the short term on Saturday.

I am accepting that it's going to take two transfer windows at least for Warne to transform the squad into one he wants to work with. And to get the academy to work differently too. It's not going to be easy as there's always that niggle in some minds (mine included)

"Were we that bad that we needed a total reset?" Or "Could Rosenior have done it quicker?" We'll never know.

I think another factor in our current situation is that  we have also lost the goodwill that Rosenior and his mismatched squad generated as the link with that season when we were all in it together. That goodwill has gone. I'm seeing it at matches now. Warne said 95% of fans clapped the players off at Ipswich, sorry, it was more like 50% - and I'm being generous at that.  Way down on similar situations at Charlton, Fleetwood etc. And the grumbling is back big time.

So Warne has got to work really hard to make us a new "something" that we match-going fans can buy into while he builds a new squad in his image. Will that be a never stop running, never say die mentality? Will we have a style? Will it be enough? 

I take your point about a Board review but at the moment that Board is still David Clowes and two accountants, none of whom have run a football club before. I know the process to recruit a Chair has begun, as has head of recruitment.  

There's such a long way to go to build us back up again. The new owner deserves the utmost credit for rescuing our club, but it is probably only now that the enormity of the task he has undertaken is dawning on him. 

[Ram Bam]

Just wanted to add my rambling thoughts on this to the mix.

 

Any talk of sacking Warne is ridiculous, he needs more time although I’m also of the belief that Rosenior should have been given longer if not the job full time. Comparing the playing styles of the two and expressing any concerns should be fair game though.

 

As I’ve said above Warne needs more time to implement his style but in my opinion performances have certainly got gradually worse over his tenure so far. Under Rosenior there was a slow build up (painfully so at times) but at least we’d generally dominate possession and create a number of decent to half decent chances in each game. We’re now trying to either get crosses in from wide or knock the ball in behind the opposition defence which generally just results in possession returning the opposition team and from memory have had one shot on target which was from a free kick in the last 2 games. Both styles needed longer to settle and who knows where they will eventually take us but to my eye it seems that the previous style was more successful and getting better performances.

 

When Warne came in in one interview he said there was not a lot wrong and he wouldn’t be changing a lot however we have generally been playing a different formation than we had played in for the majority of the season before he arrived and are seemingly playing a completely different style. The formation we’re playing doesn’t seem to suit anybody in the squads strengths and shoe horns some into positions they have said in interviews before joining that they didn’t enjoy playing. IMO the biggest strength of our squad is our midfield, we’ve got two good ball players in Bird and Hourihane, two good players who can run with the ball in Sibley and Knight and a couple of Jack of all trades in Smith and Thompson. They are seemingly being negated as all they are now asked to do is knock the ball wide or in behind the opposition defence and then play for second balls when cleared. Winning second balls is important at any level but it is not really any of our midfielders main strengths yet now seems to be a major part of the way we play.

 

Warne also seems to be a bit ‘old school’ in his approach. I appreciate he wants the players to put maximum effort in but at no point during the game on Tuesday did I think the problem was that we didn’t run enough as he alluded to in his post-match interview. His comments on injuries seems to indicate he thinks players should play through the pain and certain niggles, I’m sure some will but there has been a fair few of these comments already in his short time at the club. He’s also made comments about needing ‘Men’ and in the moment of truth podcast made lots of mentions to senior pros, we’ll have to see how it pans out but it makes you think there may not be as much of a pathway from the academy to the first team as there has been previously and there is a worry we’ll revert to Rowett’s style of signing OAP’s.

 

It might not seem like it from what I’ve written but I like Warne, he comes across as a funny, intriguing, genuine guy and I hope he can turn it round. However the football and results served up so far has been pretty poor and there are a couple of red flags popping up.

[Carnero]

54 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

In your opinion. Looking at recent managers win % doesn't change by much after their 12th game in all competitions.
By 7 games played, Clement was performing worse than he did overall, whilst Lampard and McClaren were performing better.
By 12 games played, all except Lampard and McClaren had reached their final level.

Most people can make the judgement that Rosenior was doing better with this group of players than Warne is.
This initial assessment can be backed up with what you actually see on the pitch. We've gone from having a clear identity and way of playing, and a squad which only needed a couple of additions to make the system work even better, to everyone (fans and players) not having a clue what they should be doing on the pitch, and needing 7 or more players to shape the squad to how Warne wants for the 2nd half of the season.

Interesting that you choose to manipulate the data by including the meaningless pizza cup games with 7-11 changes in each of the line ups.

For league games, you know the ones that actually matter, Rosenior had a win % of 44% and Warne has 40%, though the sample size is far too small to read anything into anyway!

But you know all this don't you ?

[Blondest Goat]

6 hours ago, Curtains said:

Hrs just about worn his players out already with his tactics and obsessive fitness regime 

This is a comedy persona and you're on a wind up right?

[Guest]

Generally I think there is a big over expectation from supporters  -  getting promoted from league one is a two year plan. Ipswich for example were relegated from the championship at the end of the 2018-19 season 

Edited October 27, 2022 by Monty

[Ghost of Clough]

42 minutes ago, Carnero said:

Interesting that you choose to manipulate the data by including the meaningless pizza cup games with 7-11 changes in each of the line ups.

For league games, you know the ones that actually matter, Rosenior had a win % of 44% and Warne has 40%, though the sample size is far too small to read anything into anyway!

But you know all this don't you ?

I also included cup games or other managers where we played teams two divisions below us too. 

The evidence is clear. After 7 games you can get a reasonable view on how a manager will do at a club, after 12 games it's very obvious.

[Carnero]

6 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I also included cup games or other managers where we played teams two divisions below us too. 

The evidence is clear. After 7 games you can get a reasonable view on how a manager will do at a club, after 12 games it's very obvious.

Why didn't you post a list of win % in league games? Why not do it now?

[DavesaRam]

So we sack Warne and ............................. who the heck do we bring in? Who th heck would want to come here? But what gets me most is the love affair with Liam Rosenior. I am almost expecting someone to make a marriage proposal. We seem to be thinking of him as having appeared holding hands with Wayne Rooney, but in fact was appointed first team coach by Philip Cocu. So he has been here for the entirety of the "tippy-tappy" prat about at the back a bit more style of football. At times the passing and interplay was beautiful on the eye, and although the limited stats suggest he produced the results, the reality is somewhat different. 

We started ok, but teams quickly worked out how to nullify us - a high press so we didn't have time to play out from the back, sit back and let us have the ball (the dominating of possession stats was often because the other teams simply lt us have the ball, knowing that all we would do with was wear out the grass in our own half. So although Paul Warne has produced matches with only 1, or even zero shots on target, so  did Rosenior throughout his tenure here - not just this season. And then there was his high risk strategy of almost totally depending on playing it out from the back which only needed one mistake and we were done for. We got away with loads of times, but hadn't played any teams with the quality to punish us, but the tactic effectively made us sitting ducks.

My biggest concern is whether or not Paul Warne simply talked the talk to (a) get the job and (b) buy some credence with the fans. So far there would appear to be no turning from the man, with Tuesday night seeing him prepared to throw 2 points away in order to keep his 3 at the back approach, only changing because he had to for the second half.

As some have said, Saturday will be the big reveal - with the players he has available, are we going to see him start a 4 at the back, on the basis that it worked well, and would bring the best out of Mendez-Lang and Barkhuisen, or will he get the crowbar out to maintain 3 at the back?

All we can do as fans is stick with it and get behind the team and yell and shout our heads off, come what may, and hope for the future.

[Ghost of Clough]

2 minutes ago, Carnero said:

Why didn't you post a list of win % in league games? Why not do it now?

1. Because I couldn't be bothered.

2. Because I can't be bothered.

[Carnero]

1 minute ago, Ghost of Clough said:

1. Because I couldn't be bothered.

2. Because I can't be bothered.

Sure Jan ?

[Mrso]

14 minutes ago, DavesaRam said:

So we sack Warne and ............................. who the heck do we bring in? Who th heck would want to come here? But what gets me most is the love affair with Liam Rosenior. I am almost expecting someone to make a marriage proposal. We seem to be thinking of him as having appeared holding hands with Wayne Rooney, but in fact was appointed first team coach by Philip Cocu. So he has been here for the entirety of the "tippy-tappy" prat about at the back a bit more style of football. At times the passing and interplay was beautiful on the eye, and although the limited stats suggest he produced the results, the reality is somewhat different. 

We started ok, but teams quickly worked out how to nullify us - a high press so we didn't have time to play out from the back, sit back and let us have the ball (the dominating of possession stats was often because the other teams simply lt us have the ball, knowing that all we would do with was wear out the grass in our own half. So although Paul Warne has produced matches with only 1, or even zero shots on target, so  did Rosenior throughout his tenure here - not just this season. And then there was his high risk strategy of almost totally depending on playing it out from the back which only needed one mistake and we were done for. We got away with loads of times, but hadn't played any teams with the quality to punish us, but the tactic effectively made us sitting ducks.

My biggest concern is whether or not Paul Warne simply talked the talk to (a) get the job and (b) buy some credence with the fans. So far there would appear to be no turning from the man, with Tuesday night seeing him prepared to throw 2 points away in order to keep his 3 at the back approach, only changing because he had to for the second half.

As some have said, Saturday will be the big reveal - with the players he has available, are we going to see him start a 4 at the back, on the basis that it worked well, and would bring the best out of Mendez-Lang and Barkhuisen, or will he get the crowbar out to maintain 3 at the back?

All we can do as fans is stick with it and get behind the team and yell and shout our heads off, come what may, and hope for the future.

You seem to have problems with both LR and PW, so not surprising you are struggling to think of who we might bring in.  Both systems need time to coach - and suitable players.  Passing out from the back is fine if you do it well and learn to compensate for the odd inevitable mistake - the top three in this League all do it.  Did LR have time to develop it well enough?

Warneball is different and requires high energy and physicality to win most second balls.  It too can work, especially at this level.  What makes no sense is trying to do both with the same group of players in one half season.  In a nutshell, they hadn't learned LR's way and now they have to learn PW's way.  That's half a season gone - and after we were bemoaning a poor pre-season due to circumstances beyond our control.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

Chester out for 2 months to go with the rest.  I see the 'they don't know they're athletes but they are' routine is working out as well as I imagined with these blokes 18 months from retirement.

[Van der MoodHoover]

7 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

I love comments like these. How many games do we give a manager until we're allowed to use stats to criticise (definition: to consider the merits and demerits of and judge accordingly)?

Central Limit Theorem. 

If each game result is an observation from an unknown distribution, then if you take a minimum of 20 observations, then their distribution will converge to a normal with average equal to the unknown. 

Sorry, I'm a stats nerd (and a more general turd) ?

[May Contain Nuts]

1 hour ago, DavesaRam said:

We seem to be thinking of him as having appeared holding hands with Wayne Rooney, but in fact was appointed first team coach by Philip Cocu. So he has been here for the entirety of the "tippy-tappy" prat about at the back a bit more style of football.

Paul Warne has produced matches with only 1, or even zero shots on target, so  did Rosenior throughout his tenure here - not just this season

Yes Dave, it's called guilt by association! ?

The buck stops with the manager, for both the rough and the smooth. It simply has to.

Rosenior's tenure can only be considered what went on under his games as the manager, and that's strictly this season. Everything before that was Cocu or Rooney's tenure, whether Rosenio was a common denominator or not.

Although...  if you want to give Rosenior an equal or even greater footing than Rooney when talking about the positives of last season and not just the negatives, then sure. Get onto the Council about awarding Liam the Freedom of the City. ?

Our best player under Rosenior (most would agree) was Mendez-Laing, which doesn't really reconcile with the idea of a team told purely to be tippy-tappy, never creating space and never getting the ball forward to a Derby player. Unless the players were ignoring instructions?

I thought it pretty was clear that our intent this season was already to mix up the tempo up a bit more tbh - maybe not as much as some would like - but if you don't have the players how are you going to do that?

Since Warne has come in we've tried to make this change of tempo to the level that most seem to desire, but it's had some adverse effects, the players don't just look knackered after a few games. Some of them are actually knackered, sent off to the appropriate yard for a month or two to recover!

Edited October 27, 2022 by Kokosnuss

[brady1993]

Personally I think the next 5 games are critical for Warne.

We've got 5 games in 14 days, which taking into account the last 4 will be a total 9 in 28 days. That's a tough spell for any team physically. And it's already taking its toll with 4 players out injured. 

If, like i suspect, a big part in the dip in performances and injuries is from fatigue caused by mismanagement. Then if it continues things will quite likely go wrong fast over this next 5 games with a possibility of being cut adrift from the top 6 and an injury list that will be preventative to mounting a challenge. In that scenario Warne's job will be under a lot of scrutiny.

On the flip side though if he finds a way to navigate through the next 5 ok then he will likely be fine. He will have a week gap before the next game and then it's the international break, so that should provide a bit of a rest and a chance to get players back fit. Then he won't be far from January and at a point he get the players he wants to make his style of play work.

At the current moment his comments about no one being able to predict when it's too much work for a player or around needing to work harder make me feel that he doesn't see his own hand in the situation. It doesn't give me confidence that he can knowingly correct it.

[Rich84]

Disappointment for me is that all the negative vibes in forums, twatter and Facebook is seeping into the grd which in turn will affect the performances.

Already the atmosphere is noticeably poor, South stand struggle to get going for more than a couple of minutes at a time then it's replaced with an uneasy murmuring.

I honestly can't believe how anyone,  irrespective of manager, thought we would be playing well with cast offs and a few youngsters that to their credit are still here. I wrote this season off the second David Clowes had the good grace to save us, for goodness sake, we nearly went out of business and have a level of restriction imposed on us that means we have an imbalanced squad with little wiggle room to change, just count your blessings you still have a club to support, and that's key, instead of bitching and crying at the injustice, get to the grd and support them

Edited October 27, 2022 by Rich84
Spelling

[rammieib]

We’ve gone from a style which suited our players to a style which, well I don’t really know what it is and I’m not sure the players do either.

He talks a good game and he’s a relatable character which is what I think the fans like but so far, I’m been incredibly disappointed.

I would not have let Rosenoir go but it’s DC’s club and he’s free to make the decisions he sees fit. Warne needs a season and a half for sure and I’m saying that whilst not being a fan of his.

I am genuinely scared and concerned though we will lose our better (younger) players though because of PW’s insistence on playing this style. 

[duncanjwitham]

27 minutes ago, Rich84 said:

I honestly can't believe how anyone,  irrespective of manager, thought we would be playing well with cast offs and a few youngsters that to their credit are still here. I wrote this season off the second David Clowes had the good grace to save us

The way I see it, there are 2 competing factors. Obviously this season was always going to be a struggle, given the restrictions, having no squad, delayed preseason etc, so clearly nobody was expecting us to romp the league. But counter to that, the longer we stay at this level, the harder it is to get out of it - existing good players will want to move on, it being harder to convince new signings of our ambition if we’re stuck here, declining attendances potentially affecting the wages we can offer etc.  Clubs quite often bounce back out of this league almost immediately, or get stuck here.

In my mind, the best case for this season was we muddle along until January, making sure we’re not out of it completely. And then we try and get a few decent players in and kick on over the second half of the season. And we looked on pace for that.  We weren’t playing fantastically, but there were signs of a pattern of play and the new players were bedding in fairly well. And we were sat just below the playoffs, comfortably capable of mounting a charge, with a bit of luck.

I now think the season probably is a write-off - we’re drifting away from the playoffs and we need major surgery in January, not just a few tweaks and improvements, and that’s unlikely to happen.  The thing that’s really annoying me is that it’s a situation entirely of our own making.  We’ve effectively taken what looked to be a potentially promising season and decided to bin it for some future hope of something or other.