Radio Derby all in for Warne tonight

[Anon]

12 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

I love comments like these. How many games do we give a manager until we're allowed to use stats to criticise (definition: to consider the merits and demerits of and judge accordingly)?

Statistically speaking, 100 is probably the minimum to draw accurate conclusions. Obviously that isn't reasonable in football, so I'd say at least 25 games before win percentage becomes meaningful. You can't seriously expect a percentage to mean anything when a single result accounts for 15%.

Edited October 27, 2022 by Anon

[Curtains]

1 minute ago, Anon said:

Statistically speaking, 100 is probably the minimum to draw accurate conclusions. Obviously that isn't possible in football, so I'd say at least 25 games before win percentage becomes meaningful. You can't seriously expect a percentage to mean anything when a single result accounts for 15%.

Hrs just about worn his players out already with his tactics and obsessive fitness regime 

[Crewton]

41 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

As I've mentioned before, only Ted Magner has a better win% than Rosenior in the history of our club.

Well, apart from Chris Hutchings and David Lowe and their 100% win records, I guess that's true. But as I said when people were calling for Rosenior to be replaced, if you're judging any manager on such a limited number of games, you're being unreasonable in the extreme. 

[Ram-Alf]

2 hours ago, Crewton said:

Football supporters : " Why can't managers tell it as it is? We just want honesty."

Also Football supporters : "Not that honest!"

Of course there's a chance that inferred or direct criticism of individual players can backfire. I think it depends on how precious the players concerned are and whether other players agree with the manager's criticism. In a strong unit like Pearson inherited, that was fatal, but may not be with the current squad as they've not had long to bond. 

Much as I believe that well paid players should be robust enough to handle public or private criticism, it can be a risky strategy. I suspect that the reaction will be determined on how Warne has followed up the criticism on a one to one basis. 

Spot on Crewton, There's those that might, There's those that will and there's those that wont accept criticism in public, We're all made of different stuff, Some need a cuddle to perform, Some need a kick up the behind...character is how you can define a person, Keogh and co didn't only have their feet firmly under the table Keogh was treated like a Son by the owner.

It also can backfire if you openly(sort of a dig)at the Manager with..."we were told to run around a bit" or words to that effect, As PW looked to infer some might be exaggerating their injuries, Players posting their thoughts on social media concerning a silly run around a bit comment.

Curtis Davis should be the voice of the dressing room...public or private, It's not looking good so I guess we'll see on Saturday?‍♀️

[LeedsCityRam]

Some excellent points made on this thread.

As a general rule I hate changing managers & am loathe to call for Warne's head until well into next year - results haven't been that bad at all but the mood around the club is starting to darken. What disturbs me most is the lack of pragmatism which suggests he has one way of playing & isn't prepared to adjust that for the players he has at his disposal.

In time Warne may well be successful here but I don't believe that will be this season. He needs at least 2 windows to bring in the type of players he needs (made harder by the EFL imposed business plan) & a full pre-season to implement the style he believes will win games. Not unlike Bielsa at Leeds, I'd expect us next August to hit the ground running but the question is do the fans & Board have the patience to withstand a tricky few months until then knowing that the style is always likely to be crude even if results do start to go our way eventually. Then we have the longer term consideration of the effect on the Academy (what kind of players do we now need to churn out) & whether Warneball is our preferred long-term style i.e. if Warne doesn't work out, we would need to appoint another high intensity, direct coach given the players he is likely to have at the club if he is here longer than a year.

I think the Board need to have a thorough review of their 3 year plan for DCFC - some (including the media) will have assumed Warne was brought in to get a quick promotion but I'd argue he is going to take just as long as Rosenior would but with more upheaval throughout the club & fanbase. Is that what they wanted when they made the appointment? I doubt it.

[Jimbo Ram]

13 hours ago, Ted McMinn Football Genius said:

Bad refereeing and pure gamesmanship from PV players.

Still wasn’t great was it ?

[NottmRAM]

I can't get my head around why LR didn't get more time. I thought we were playing good, entertaining football and just needed to be a bit more clinical in the box.

That said, Liam has gone and we have Paul Warne. I like him, he's engaging and charismatic and that must bring some energy into the dressing room.

I do feel we have a team of Championship players who are now being asked to play league one football. The players we have are skilful and that skill is not being utilised.

If you are going to play "lump-the-ball-up" football you have to categorically win the 50-50 and second balls. To win the 50-50 and second balls you need big, physical, intimidating players, not the quick footed, agile, skilful players.

All good teams play to their strengths - I don't think we are doing that under PW.

[ilkleyram]

So we have @duncanjwitham and some others firmly in the ‘Warne out, but happy if we’re wrong’ (just to cover our bets) camp or the damning with faint praise camp, nine and a half weeks and 7 matches into his reign. I wonder how often they have joined new organisations in their careers and what they might have felt if, after two months, their boss had said to them 'go' and what that might say about their boss rather than necessarily themselves? 

No doubt they’ll be happy to know that they will be right.  He’ll go eventually as they all do, though under what circumstances none of us yet know.

There are those of us though who despair at such short term thinking. It took Sir Brian one and a half seasons to get his team into a position to challenge, Arthur similarly; Jim well over 15 games plus, crucially, a close season and Igor; Billy was apparently always thinking of the joys of Preston, but developed a pragmatic style that got lucky until it was found out in the top division.  And don’t forget that they each took over a club in a stronger position financially and, crucially, without the handicaps of a transfer window system (except Billy) or restraints (deserved or not) from the EFL or the hugely negative impact of money on the wider game - from transfer fees to agents to wages.

We have an owner who hasn’t said very much, and will probably continue with that broad policy, but we do know he runs a successful business, we do know that he’s a fan and we do know that he’s put his money where his mouth is.  The good news is that whatever the views are of a few he probably won’t chuck that money away by sacking three people 10 weeks after he’s appointed them.  He might even have said to them “I know it’s going to be tough for a couple of years but look at me as your Sam Longson; I’m going to support you in the rebuilding of this club over the next season and a half, but then I want a team to win the league. Get there sooner if you can”

Whether Sam would have been able to do what he did if social media had been around in the late 60’s, who knows, but probably not and look what we would have missed; Arthur was, at the beginning, lucky that Maxwell had bigger fish to fry and more money to spend, until we were in the top division; Jim was both liked and supported by Lionel, probably for too long, but struggled for the first period of his tenure; Billy benefitted from new ownership and the post amigo feeling of goodwill but he gained only 5 points from his first 6 games. The main lesson of our (never mind anyone else’s) history is that our managers need time and support from their owners in order to deliver success.  I suspect that’s the minimum Warne will get from David Clowes. Praise be.

What all those owners did was ignore the noises off because every one of our successful managers had to suffer the questioning of those with no idea of what it is like to run a professional football club.  In their own ways they all understood that building teams and clubs takes time and patience and investment.  Hopefully Mr Clowes is of similar ilk.

[DerbyRevolution]

1 hour ago, NottmRAM said:

I can't get my head around why LR didn't get more time. I thought we were playing good, entertaining football and just needed to be a bit more clinical in the box.

That said, Liam has gone and we have Paul Warne. I like him, he's engaging and charismatic and that must bring some energy into the dressing room.

I do feel we have a team of Championship players who are now being asked to play league one football. The players we have are skilful and that skill is not being utilised.

If you are going to play "lump-the-ball-up" football you have to categorically win the 50-50 and second balls. To win the 50-50 and second balls you need big, physical, intimidating players, not the quick footed, agile, skilful players.

All good teams play to their strengths - I don't think we are doing that under PW.

Really? 

Oxford was ok, not great but got over the line

Charlton played well, deserved more 

Barnsley first half, good

Barnsley second half, sat back, terrible

Shrewsbury and Fleetwood away, terrible

Peterborough - saved by red card and last min goals, poor performance

Plymouth, deserved to lose. deserved to be 3-2 down at half time not 2-0 up

Lincoln, the worst of them all, goodbye Rosenior

[Yani P]

Does make me smile when we had posters banging on for 6 months to go 3 at the back..then we we do they moan that we are playing 3 at the back..

I think it will take time to get the team playing the way he wants but I would be very disappointed if we ended up not playing attractive football. Hopefully a mix of styles that might actually make us look more threatening.

On the fitness front it is a concern; LR was always saying his team were managing players minutes after a truncated pre-season in the expectation that players would be where he wanted them to be by November. Might explain these injuries..changing to what appears to be a full on fitness regime.

 

[Ram-Alf]

1 hour ago, NottmRAM said:

I can't get my head around why LR didn't get more time. I thought we were playing good, entertaining football and just needed to be a bit more clinical in the box.

 

Charlton 1 Derby 0

Shrewsbury 0 Derby 0

Fleetwood 0 Derby 0

Lincoln 2 Derby 0

Did the sands of time run out ?‍♀️  

 

[Ghost of Clough]

3 hours ago, Anon said:

Criticism of Warne is reasonable, but calling on win percentage statistics when the sample size is 12 and 7 games respectively is ridiculous.

The trend is pretty clear.

[Wistaston Ram]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

The trend is pretty clear.

I see you must have included cup games (including the 3 Pizza cup games)  as we have only played 14 league games. I probably wouldn't have included them particularly in the PPG graph.

[TomTom92]

I think the Warne interrogators are split in to two camps: Rosenior got pooed on and I don't like it club and we've appointed a 3x league 1 promotion expert #announcepromotion oh wait the style isn't great and we're not getting automatic success club.

I'm no interrogator but I'm certainly more option 2, but I'm starting realise how thin the squad is and how much the lack of 24-30 year old players is killing us. Warne needs time and backing from all but sadly the fans discontent is already stirring the pot. 

[NottmRAM]

22 minutes ago, Unlucky Alf said:

Charlton 1 Derby 0 

Shrewsbury 0 Derby 0

Fleetwood 0 Derby 0

Lincoln 2 Derby 0

Did the sands of time run out ?‍♀️  

 

 

                           Shots             Possession          Passes             Pass Accuracy

Shrewsbury -     13                           75%               768                     87%

Fleetwood -        27                          62%               545                     82%

Were the scorelines Liam's fault?

 

Derby 2 Barnsley 1

Derby 2 Peterborough 1

Derby 2 Wycombe 1

 

 

[Anon]

32 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

The trend is pretty clear.

I'm not disagreeing with the trend or the data. I'm saying there isn't enough of it to make a meaningful judgement. I understand percentages, presenting the same data in a different way won't change my mind.

[Ram-Alf]

3 minutes ago, NottmRAM said:

 

                           Shots             Possession          Passes             Pass Accuracy

Shrewsbury -     13                           75%               768                     87%

Fleetwood -        27                          62%               545                     82%

Were the scorelines Liam's fault?

 

Derby 2 Barnsley 1

Derby 2 Peterborough 1

Derby 2 Wycombe 1

 

 

For all the effort Derby put in in your stats...how many goals did we score?

Managers lose their jobs if the owner believes they're not good enough in delivering results on the pitch, These are LRs signings embargo or not, LR was let go after the Wycombe game, Some say he was told before the Wycombe game he's being let go ?‍♀️ The game where the Irish manager questioned as to why Knight is playing at RB, LR moves him to his preferred position and we win.

I can't argue with the home results as a wins a win, It doesn't matter how we achieved the wins 3 points are on the board

 

[RoyMac5]

1 hour ago, TomTom92 said:

I think the Warne interrogators are split in to two camps: Rosenior got pooed on and I don't like it club and we've appointed a 3x league 1 promotion expert #announcepromotion oh wait the style isn't great and we're not getting automatic success club.

I'm no interrogator but I'm certainly more option 2, but I'm starting realise how thin the squad is and how much the lack of 24-30 year old players is killing us. Warne needs time and backing from all but sadly the fans discontent is already stirring the pot. 

Most fans understand the difficulties Warne is facing. Perhaps if he appears to be able to compromise his preferred style of play to get the best out of the current squad then he'd be getting more sympathy? But it currently doesn't look that way, lots of players playing in positions they either don't know or don't want to play.

[NottmRAM]

37 minutes ago, Unlucky Alf said:

For all the effort Derby put in in your stats...how many goals did we score?

Managers lose their jobs if the owner believes they're not good enough in delivering results on the pitch, These are LRs signings embargo or not, LR was let go after the Wycombe game, Some say he was told before the Wycombe game he's being let go ?‍♀️ The game where the Irish manager questioned as to why Knight is playing at RB, LR moves him to his preferred position and we win.

I can't argue with the home results as a wins a win, It doesn't matter how we achieved the wins 3 points are on the board

 

Come on - everyone was jumping for joy at every single signing. Not one person said "this is a team that will have 27 shots and not score"

Most of those signings plus the ones that stayed could have gone to Championship clubs. LR got them to sign for Derby. Now you're saying they were the wrong players?

[Jubbs]

50 minutes ago, NottmRAM said:

Derby 2 Barnsley 1

Derby 2 Peterborough 1

Derby 2 Wycombe 1

What people are forgetting, Barnsley, Wycombe and Peterborough are 3 very good League 1 sides, all of which were towards of the top of the bookmakers odds for promotion at the beginning of the season. Our losses came to Charlton, Plymouth and Lincoln, with Plymouth looking like they're going to go up automatically. 

On the other hand, under Warne we've:
Beat Cambridge and Accrington, two average League One sides.
Lost to Port Vale and drawn to Exeter, two promoted sides.
Lost to Ipswich, who look on for promotion.