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Derby v Stevenage FC - Match Day Thread


Heisenberg

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6 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Even I, the Master of Misery, the Prince of Pusillanimity, the Czar of Criticism admit that I feel a warm waft of satisfaction this evening at the outcome today.

 

 

 

Or I've soiled myself....

Both can be true.

I was wondering what the smell was...

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26 minutes ago, ap04 said:

I will try and clarify it for you. We currently are
4th luckiest in the league on this (xG vs actual)
5th luckest in the league on this (same metric)
5th or 6th luckiest in the league on xG points vs actual (-7 excluding today, same source)

By my database
Chances to goals scored (3.09, avg 3.72) is as lucky as it gets after 33 games
Chances to goals conceded (4.17) is luckier than 72% of teams
The two combined (1.08) is luckier than 86% of teams - for reference last season was quite unlucky and this was only 0.38 against
Finally on results we are 8 points better off, this is luckier than 88% of teams

And that just proves such stats are pointless😂

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29 minutes ago, ap04 said:

I will try and clarify it for you. We currently are
4th luckiest in the league on this (xG vs actual)
5th luckest in the league on this (same metric)
5th or 6th luckiest in the league on xG points vs actual (-7 excluding today, same source)

By my database
Chances to goals scored (3.09, avg 3.72) is as lucky as it gets after 33 games
Chances to goals conceded (4.17) is luckier than 72% of teams
The two combined (1.08) is luckier than 86% of teams - for reference last season was quite unlucky and this was only 0.38 against
Finally on results we are 8 points better off, this is luckier than 88% of teams

Stop It GIF by Huptech Web

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39 minutes ago, ap04 said:

I will try and clarify it for you. We currently are
4th luckiest in the league on this (xG vs actual)
5th luckest in the league on this (same metric)
5th or 6th luckiest in the league on xG points vs actual (-7 excluding today, same source)

By my database
Chances to goals scored (3.09, avg 3.72) is as lucky as it gets after 33 games
Chances to goals conceded (4.17) is luckier than 72% of teams
The two combined (1.08) is luckier than 86% of teams - for reference last season was quite unlucky and this was only 0.38 against
Finally on results we are 8 points better off, this is luckier than 88% of teams

So we are 2nd on luck after about 2/3 of the season?  Luck wins cups where you have be good on a one off.  Luck doesn’t get teams at the top end of the table.

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Todays game was one I thought beforehand would be very difficult and I thought we may get a draw. Stevenage are a typical hard tackling, aggressive side which Derby sides have struggled to play against for many a long year - N Clough, McClaren etc etc etc. we struggled at their place and were well defeated, having been bullied off the park.

News that Collins was not fit also made team selection extremely difficult, as he is the one who normally takes the brunt of aggression from the opposition defence. I can totally understand the team selection today, which I think was initially to standup to the bullying, aggressive tactics. Having 4 particularly strong defenders in Nyambe, Bradley, Nelson and Cashin set the tone, with Adams and Elder also being strong too. I think this initial part of the game, although not exciting, was necessary. Although not entertaining, I admired our courage and grit.

We did try to attack where possible in the first half, but it didn’t happen. Our passing, fluidity up front just wasn’t there. MNL wasn’t at the races in the first half and I don’t think Barkhaizen is particular effective when the opposition is aggressive. We had a couple of near squeaks 1st half but we played them very well - they were probably surprised by our performance.

The 2nd half continued in the same vein but we then became a little more adventurous and the Smith substitution improved matters, freeing Wilson to start attacking more. Not much in the game but I thought we deserved to win in the end due to our courage to stand up to them early on in the game.

Not sure Hourahane was totally fit to start but we seemed to be more mobile in midfield as a result. Everyone got stuck in today, so very pleased with the effort. Sure we will have more productive games going forward soon. We just had to get through today - it was so important that our confidence levels did not drop. Some of our opponents in the promotion race would have loved the 3 points we won today.

Warne has taken a lot of stick on here for his tactics and team selection - not sure what else he could have done under the circumstances he found himself in.

Also a shout out for the referee today, who was not intimidated by the pre-match comments, and Ibthought refereed he game vey sensibly and well on the whole.

we now have a week to work on a formation and tactics for another difficult game on Saturday.

I for one, was pleased with todays showing.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Mucker1884 said:

Happy to be corrected here, but I have it as:

We win all our remaining games, we finish on 105pts

If Bolton win all their remaining games... except the one in which they lose to us... they end up with 105pts.
If they overturn our current +4 GD advantage, they end up above us.

Therefore, Bolton can outdo us, regardless of how we do... which equates to it being not in our own hands just yet.

🤷‍♂️

 

For that scenario to happen Portsmouth would have been beaten twice ( by us and Bolton) so the most they could get is 102 points, making promotion in our own hands. 

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I enjoyed the game today, mainly because I wasn't expecting us to get anything from it, what with Evans' pre match shenanigans and Collins not in the squad.

Must admit I was disappointed Evans didn't come over to the away fans after the game for his trademark celebration, but instead he immediately skulked off down the tunnel. His bitter post match comments do bring me joy though.

Haven't seen such a buoyant post match mood at PP for some time.

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3 hours ago, Sandman said:

A determined performance is not a good performance. DCFC were once one of the finest football clubs in the country - and now we are reduced to giving a "determined performance" against a little team called Stevenage in the third division? Look on my works you mighty, and despair, said Brian Clough before he fell into ditch on his way home from the pub to his house in Quardon.  Que Sera. Sera.

I was talking to and about @Caerphilly Ram.

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5 hours ago, 8Leeds said:

When Steve Evans steps on his bathroom scales they say “to be continued”. They also have to be powered by main’s electric.

I didn’t think they did scales that went that high on the weight scale. 
 

Episode 14 Scale GIF by The Simpsons
 

 

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1 hour ago, Animal is a Ram said:

I keep watching the goal, and I don't understand how it happens. My dulled brain can't comprehend the few seconds between it leaving Mendez-Laing's boot and it nestling into the back of the net. 

Anyway...

It's the most extraordinary finish. I can't wait to see it from behind the goal to try to understand it better. Presuming it was deliberate, it looks like an incredible piece of skill by Sibley to divert it into the corner that way, given the pace the ball came to him at. But it is indeed vey hard to fathom - one moment we're on the attack and the next the ball is in the net, and it is hard to understand the process.

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2 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

It's the most extraordinary finish. I can't wait to see it from behind the goal to try to understand it better. Presuming it was deliberate, it looks like an incredible piece of skill by Sibley to divert it into the corner that way, given the pace the ball came to him at. But it is indeed vey hard to fathom - one moment we're on the attack and the next the ball is in the net, and it is hard to understand the process.

Combination of the pace of the pass and deftness of Sibley’s touch? Like when a peach of a header is scored and a lot of the credit is put on the cross with the goalscorer having “simply” redirected the pace and power, which isn’t simple at all but you know what I mean. Sibley’s technical ability meant he was able to react and redirect the cross in an instant 

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2 minutes ago, McArthur Park said:

Can you not be proud of how the players tried their best, kept plugging away, and in the end got their reward?

Apparently not. As I've already said, I'm not convinced Warne is our long term bet. BUT, I can appreciate when he got right and scrapping an important win against a top six team when we are chasing automatic promotion is always a good result. To argue otherwise is churlish.

I'm a Warne sceptic, but I can also appreciate a vital win in difficult circumstances. Well done to Warne and the squad.

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Some observations: Adams didn’t het a yellow card, while still playing his normal game - that in itself is worth celebrating. As is the rare fact that afik no Derby players were booked. The only surprise is that the fat man didn’t blather on about biased match officials!

The fans were stupendous today, and were loud from the off, and really got going in the second half. We had to be loud and get behind the team, but the Collins loss has put us into a “backs to the wall” situation, which may have had something to do with it.

I didn’t think Stevenage showed as much “thug” football as I was expecting, but their dark side is still there. It took what seemed like 30 or 40 cynical/professional fouls before a card was shown. The ref actually did fairly well, but did start giving a lot if soft decisions in Stevenage's way in the second half, almost as though he had received his half-time efl email! A couple these soft decisions close together just before Corey Smith got the fans backs up and up went the volume and Derby started to look a little more adventurous.

The goal wasn’t just Sibbo stabbing at a loose ball. Louie stepped back from his marker and signalled to Nate who duly obliged, and just one bit of skill got us 3 points instead of one. For such a “war of attrition”, it is the best I have felt at the end of match for ages.

Thank you, you Rams!

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