Derby County Administration (with the slight possibility of Liquidation still there)

[TheresOnlyWanChope]

1 hour ago, jono said:

It isn’t the buyers. The Admin works on behalf of the creditors .. their job is to get the best possible outcome for the creditors. No more no less. 

That can be : A ) find a buyer (S) offering a certain sum which the creditors either accept or decline. That sum might or might not include taking on some of the existing debt. The buyer can offer anything from a quid and no debt acceptance, to the same quid and a proportion of the debt … it’s absolutely up to the creditors to accept or not. It’s a balancing act. Too stingy or unworkable and the creditors decline and we go to option B

B ) in the event that a buyer can’t be found and daily running costs mean there is no other option than to cease trading activities, any remaining assets are liquidated (basically players, land, and buildings will be sold ) and turned in to cash that is distributed according to a list of priorities. 

As I understand it MSD have a preferential status based on conditions in the loan so in all probability in terms of liquidation there won’t be much left after MSD have talked their slice

There is a C) when everything has unravelled someone reforms DCFC and we apply for entry in the Football league and look forward to playing Matlock, Mickleover Sports, Buxton and a big day out to FC United of Manchester. Mel lets us use pride park … and you know what there would be crowds. This is a football town said someone once a long time ago. 
 

If there’s a half decent stadium and some black and white shirts I’ll be there. …names gentlemen please  (and all other genders / sexes / non binaries -  obviousy  ) 

County of Derby 

Derby City

Derby United

Derby Rams

Derby Academicals

Derby EFL Nightmare mare on Green Lane 

 

The club has been for sale ages and only just now in administration. Buyers have been put off because of the debt most likely- or Mel Morris’ asking price. 
May support a Phoenix team- AFC Derby County or something but would probably feel strange. Derby City just won’t connect with me, likewise Derby Rovers or anything similar ;  probably won’t bother supporting a club team in all likelihood if Derby folds. Hopeful something can be sorted though and we can be good again one day. 

[PistoldPete]

11 minutes ago, Hordh said:

Penfold left and Parry came in. 

Oh right. Morris has left now. Does that mean everything changes? 

[CornwallRam]

I wonder how much the golden share is worth? 

I'm slightly concerned that the administrators were involved in the formation of MK Dons. 

Not sure how it would work, but hopefully they wouldn't consider selling the EFL membership separately to the 'club'.  I can just imagine Slough Rams in League 1 and AFC Derby County in the Conference North.

[kevinhectoring]

4 hours ago, Rampage said:

What is your best guess as to how much would then be.

Your best guess is as good as mine ?. We can’t tell not least because we don’t know how much debt is MSD and how much is MM ‘soft loans’ to be written off. 
 

The ‘plug’ in the numbers is HMRC, because they will take all they can get but they will avoid pushing us into liquidation. The other numbers are hard wired 

The admins have said 95% chance of survival. which tells us they are confident someone will bid enough. I think 32 may have helped quite a bit but that’s a guess 

[kevinhectoring]

4 hours ago, PistoldPete said:

But you can still get a situation like Bury whose Company is still in admin even though the are not competing in any League at the moment due to being banished from EFL. There has been no winding up order as far as I know.

Yes you are still right about this !!  But I think our infrastructure/fixed cost base is a bit too heavy for that outcome and our fan base too strong 

[kevinhectoring]

6 hours ago, CornwallRam said:

Also when the cash runs out to keep up with the day to day running costs. I think we're 'safe' until the summer as they seem relaxed enough about cashflow to keep the academy at full strength and January will give the opportunity for a fire sale.

No takeover by June and it'll be squeaky but time though.

The admins can borrow for cashflow on a priority basis  And they will do that, so long as they think a seller will pay enough to cover the creditor hurdle  

June??!!  If we don’t have a sale before close of the Jan window things have gone badly wrong. 

[jono]

2 hours ago, TheresOnlyWanChope said:

The club has been for sale ages and only just now in administration. Buyers have been put off because of the debt most likely- or Mel Morris’ asking price. 
May support a Phoenix team- AFC Derby County or something but would probably feel strange. Derby City just won’t connect with me, likewise Derby Rovers or anything similar ;  probably won’t bother supporting a club team in all likelihood if Derby folds. Hopeful something can be sorted though and we can be good again one day. 

I am sure buyers have been put off by the debt and the losses .. but once administration occurs it’s a different set of arithmetic 

[Bladderwrack]

There is a possibility Derby could be liquidated, it will not happen though. Derby may be in a hole but they have bags of potential, they have a  massive fan base and clubs with this will always find a way to dig themselves out. They just need the right men in charge to do it.

There is however one constant truism that always accompanies situations like this. The doomsayers are always out in force. To quote the famous poem by Albert Edgar Guest

There are thousands to tell you it cannot be done,

     There are thousands to prophesy failure,

There are thousands to point out to you one by one,

      The dangers that wait to assail you.

Some people take joy in prophesying and forecasting the worst case scenario.  It may be they are expressing their own paranoia as a therapeutic measure or they may be the type who get a thrill from spreading doom and gloom. Whatever it is, it is a time for people who love their club to grow thick skins and learn to ignore such negativity until it comes from people who genuinely have their finger on the pulse and are speaking facts not fears. 

 

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

Personally, I think the main obsticle moving forward is the uncertainty of any further points deduction. 

[Bald Eagle's Barmy Army]

The fact that 32 Red is still happy to put money into the club tells you everything you need to know. 
 

They will know a lot more than we do and probably even know what the probable outcome is already and that’s why they’re happy to offer their support in a time of need. 
 

The club will be fine. 

[i-Ram]

3 minutes ago, The Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Personally, I think the main obsticle moving forward is the uncertainty of any further points deduction. 

Is that an obsticle or an obstacle?  You can’t buy an ejukayshun down in Sandbanks then?

[Yani P]

Sandbanks is a varied place..lived there myself until we moved to Canada..you have the outer circle homes on the beach and waterfront side..then the inner properties with no water frontage..then the houses with dual water frontage on the way to the peninsula..expensive but zero privacy..then the Evening Hill end..depends where you are whether you had an education ?

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

20 minutes ago, Yani P said:

Sandbanks is a varied place..lived there myself until we moved to Canada..you have the outer circle homes on the beach and waterfront side..then the inner properties with no water frontage..then the houses with dual water frontage on the way to the peninsula..expensive but zero privacy..then the Evening Hill end..depends where you are whether you had an education ?

Which ones Harry's. 

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

46 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

Is that an obsticle or an obstacle?  You can’t buy an ejukayshun down in Sandbanks then?

Nice one Shirley 

[ariotofmyown]

5 hours ago, i-Ram said:

Your wife’s a paedo, and you allow her to work in a hospital??  FFS man. What are you thinking.

I've organised an angry mob to vandalise their house. We learnt nothing from the mistaken vigilanteism in the early 2000s. Apart from that the really dangerous ones were way more likely to be rich and famous men than oddballs round the corner.

[CornwallRam]

51 minutes ago, The Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Personally, I think the main obsticle moving forward is the uncertainty of any further points deduction. 

I agree, but I think the worry is a points deduction for next season.  I think all the buyers are bidding for a big League 1 club, what they really don't want is a League 2 club.

With the Newcastle sale, people will be looking at Derby County and thinking that the club is worth £250m as a stable Premier League club  that owns its own ground. Then they'll be working out the likely cost of getting there. 

Points deductions could add an extra two years, which is going to be a few million extra on the cost calculation. 

Hopefully, someone thinks £25m upfront,  £20m of debts to service,  five years @ £20m per season to fund the rebuild. Promotion to the PL gives over a £100m in profit - well worth the investment. 

[Oldben]

Leeds in League One in 2007-08 had the best post-deduction season. Despite losing 15 points early in the season, they finished with 76 points. The on-pitch total was 91, good for promotion. Southampton, also in League One, missed the playoffs by ten points in 2009-10.  Rotherham and Bournemouth stayed in League Two despite being docked 17 points. Luton had lost 30 points, so one of them was safe. Chester were also relegated despite having a 17-point lead.  Grimsby finished below Bournemouth, while Rotherham finished 14th. In 2018-19, Birmingham survived nine points loss due to profitability and sustainability issues.  That all came from clubs that were not in administration at the start of the season is bad news for Derby.  The record for clubs going bankrupt in a season is less rosy. Crystal Palace went into administration in 2009-10 and lost ten points in January. Despite having to sell key players like future European champion José Fonte and future Premier League winner Victor Moses, Palace survived after a last-day draw at Sheffield Wednesday, who were relegated.Wednesday finished two points ahead of Palace.  They would have been 13th without the deduction.

[PistoldPete]

7 hours ago, CornwallRam said:

I agree, but I think the worry is a points deduction for next season.  I think all the buyers are bidding for a big League 1 club, what they really don't want is a League 2 club.

With the Newcastle sale, people will be looking at Derby County and thinking that the club is worth £250m as a stable Premier League club  that owns its own ground. Then they'll be working out the likely cost of getting there. 

Points deductions could add an extra two years, which is going to be a few million extra on the cost calculation. 

Hopefully, someone thinks £25m upfront,  £20m of debts to service,  five years @ £20m per season to fund the rebuild. Promotion to the PL gives over a £100m in profit - well worth the investment. 

Someone was suggesting that Sunderland, who now own their own ground and are now debt free, are still ony worth £30 million. Quite how that compares to Newcastle I don't know , two big clubs in the North East who could both very well be in the Championship next season.

I would think if Newcatle are worth £250 million, Sunderland must be worth at least half that.  Without PPS ownership we will not be in that category but on a long term  view easily worth more than the debts.  

 

 

 

[CornwallRam]

1 hour ago, PistoldPete said:

Someone was suggesting that Sunderland, who now own their own ground and are now debt free, are still ony worth £30 million. Quite how that compares to Newcastle I don't know , two big clubs in the North East who could both very well be in the Championship next season.

I would think if Newcatle are worth £250 million, Sunderland must be worth at least half that.  Without PPS ownership we will not be in that category but on a long term  view easily worth more than the debts.  

 

 

 

Newcastle sold for £300m

[Oldben]

1 hour ago, PistoldPete said:

Someone was suggesting that Sunderland, who now own their own ground and are now debt free, are still ony worth £30 million. Quite how that compares to Newcastle I don't know , two big clubs in the North East who could both very well be in the Championship next season.

I would think if Newcatle are worth £250 million, Sunderland must be worth at least half that.  Without PPS ownership we will not be in that category but on a long term  view easily worth more than the debts.  

 

 

 

No chance Sunderland are worth the half the value of Newcastle.

Sunderland is in League 1, Newcastle are premier league.

Sunderland technically shouldn't even be worth more than Derby.

When sunderland entered into negotiations with Ellis Short several years ago, they were nearly £200 million in debt, they were losing £35 million per annum, and had all but been relegated to League One.

If there's something interesting for Derby in all that it's that new owners were able to see a way out of the debt and into a profitable enterprise, which Sunderland have the opportunity of becoming.