The Ukraine War

[jono]

29 minutes ago, GenBr said:

In fairness to the Russians its not like the west treated them any better after the fall of Communism. They are still surrounded by Nato and American bases even more so than they were during the cold war.

The west could have tried to bring russia back into the fold (and i know why we didnt given the events of the past 50 years), but every action weve taken for the last 20 years seems intended to further isolate and antagonise the Russian state. Now they feel they have no choice but to make desperate gambles like this.

I was thinking about this. If you are Putin and enjoy being a despot you wouldn’t want NATO knocking on your door. 
Thing is though, other than pushing Sadam out of  invaded Kuwait NATO hasn’t really invaded anyone. 

What the west does do .. is invade everywhere with iPhones, popular culture, credit cards and tree hugging. Things Despots aren’t that keen on. 

[Stive Pesley]

37 minutes ago, GenBr said:

Now they feel they have no choice but to make desperate gambles like this.

I don't get this - what has changed between the fall of the Soviet Union and now which  means that Russia suddenly has "no choice" but to begin a hostile military assault on another democratic country?

 

 

[alexxxxx]

1 hour ago, Alpha said:

Ukraine is releasing inmates and criminal suspects with a military background so they can join the fight against Russia’s “special operation”  in the country, an official in Ukraine's prosecutor general’s office confirmed on Sunday.

Sinyuk was quoted by Hromadske as saying that Sergey Torbin, a former combat veteran, was one of the inmates released. Torbin previously fought in the conflict with the DPR and LPR. He was jailed for six years and six months in 2018 for his role in the murder of a civil rights activist and anti-corruption campaigner Kateryna Handziuk. The woman was doused with acid in July 2018 on a street outside her home and died in the hospital with severe burns later that year.

Sinyuk said Torbin handpicked former inmates for his squad after his early release. He added that another ex-serviceman, Dmitry Balabukha, sentenced to nine years in jail for stabbing a man to death at a bus stop after an argument in 2018, had also been released.

First paragraph seems to be true as other news sources are carrying that.

The second bit doesn’t appear anywhere else apart from Russia Today.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

1 hour ago, Alpha said:

Ukraine is releasing inmates and criminal suspects with a military background so they can join the fight against Russia’s “special operation”  in the country, an official in Ukraine's prosecutor general’s office confirmed on Sunday.

Sinyuk was quoted by Hromadske as saying that Sergey Torbin, a former combat veteran, was one of the inmates released. Torbin previously fought in the conflict with the DPR and LPR. He was jailed for six years and six months in 2018 for his role in the murder of a civil rights activist and anti-corruption campaigner Kateryna Handziuk. The woman was doused with acid in July 2018 on a street outside her home and died in the hospital with severe burns later that year.

Sinyuk said Torbin handpicked former inmates for his squad after his early release. He added that another ex-serviceman, Dmitry Balabukha, sentenced to nine years in jail for stabbing a man to death at a bus stop after an argument in 2018, had also been released.

Unpleasant but not uncommon.

The USA did this with a chap in prison, doing life term for murdering someone in a bar fight when they needed a particularly trained person to drop the Hiroshima bomb.  Stay in prison or arm this for us in mid air and we'll let you out.  When it comes to it and its needed they all do it. All those NAZI party members who built the V2 somehow found their way onto the NASA space program as well.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

7 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I don't get this - what has changed between the fall of the Soviet Union and now which  means that Russia suddenly has "no choice" but to begin a hostile military assault on another democratic country?

 

 

Nothing, more than show over 7 or 8 days that NATO members won't do much to help them.  That's the basic purpose.  So far some bank accounts - but not all- have been frozen and I imagine some protective but not military armoury such as helmets has arrived in a lorry.

[Cisse]

17 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I don't get this - what has changed between the fall of the Soviet Union and now which  means that Russia suddenly has "no choice" but to begin a hostile military assault on another democratic country?

 

 

Russians have wanted back all the areas they have ruled at some point. That has been the case always. It is just that Putin is getting older and if he wants to get everything back he needs to start soon so he has. If he can get Ukraine and secure it he will go after another country too. Probably Latvia or Lithuania next.

Nothing has changed in their mind and it won't until they get it all back. Even if it takes centuries.

[Stive Pesley]

8 minutes ago, Cisse said:

Russians have wanted back all the areas they have ruled at some point. That has been the case always. It is just that Putin is getting older and if he wants to get everything back he needs to start soon so he has. If he can get Ukraine and secure it he will go after another country too. Probably Latvia or Lithuania next.

Nothing has changed in their mind and it won't until they get it all back. Even if it takes centuries

I get that bit, but I was more questioning the OP who seemed to be suggesting that he was somehow forced into it (beginning a full scale military invasion of a neighbouring country) by "the west".

What did we do? And why did it trigger this now?

 

 

[Norman]

6 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I get that bit, but I was more questioning the OP who seemed to be suggesting that he was somehow forced into it (beginning a full scale military invasion of a neighbouring country) by "the west".

What did we do? And why did it trigger this now?

 

 

The current government is becoming more and more Westernised. If Putin waits, he knows the current populations will be more and more against any military action or attempts to install his own puppet government. I'm guessing the NATO talks in December and how they went was another factor. 

Now or never. 

[GenBr]

57 minutes ago, Highgate said:

I understand that the US doesn't want to put troops on the ground.  It would be a huge step...and potentially catastrophic for all concerned.  But what possible advantage is there to announce this to the world beforehand?  Why not simply use the Taiwan strategy and say nothing. If your adversary can figure out your intentions then fair enough...but don't simply tell them.  I have a feeling Biden plays poker with his cards facing outwards..

The United States are assisting with arms and intelligence. They have drones all over the Ukrainian theater and they are providing this info to Ukrainian ground forces, which has led directly to the destruction of several Russian columns. The Russians cant stop any of these activities so even if Biden decided to tell them his exact plans it doesnt have any impact.

Biden saying he wont send ground troops is not new information - there is no advantage to not saying it either - its completely irrelevant to any kind of strategy. 

24 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I don't get this - what has changed between the fall of the Soviet Union and now which  means that Russia suddenly has "no choice" but to begin a hostile military assault on another democratic country?

 

 

The expansion of NATO, the weakening of the Russian state and the proliferation of American military bases are the key reasons if you were wondering and its not "suddenly" either.

Russia lost several key areas after the collapse of the soviet union that they feel are key to their security. The loss of Crimea and Ukraine in particular made the Russian heartlands extremely vulnerable to outside threats. Control of Crimea allows them to close the sea of Azov and control of Ukraine expands their buffer for the caucasus. The Russians believed that they had an informal agreement that countries such as Ukraine would never be allowed to join organisations such as Nato (which the west denies) as it would pose a significant threat to the Russian state. With a pro western president ruling Ukraine and moves being made to further integrate them into western institutions the Russians felt they had no choice but to act now to protect their long term survival.

Russia is surrounded by NATO members and American bases and whilst you could argue that they are purely defensive in nature virtually every American intervention for the past 70 years has used one of these bases as the starting point.

The United States almost had a meltdown when the Russians stationed troops and missiles in cuba and yet Russia is supposed to be fine with having multiple countries on its borders filled with American troops, weapons and missiles. If Ukraine joined NATO virtually every major western Russian city would be within spitting distance of hostile forces.

 

 

[Stive Pesley]

3 minutes ago, GenBr said:

Russia lost several key areas after the collapse of the soviet union that they feel are key to their security. The loss of Crimea and Ukraine in particular made the Russian heartlands extremely vulnerable to outside threats.

What threats though? Whe has ever threatened to attack Russia since the cold war ended?

If they didn't have a power-crazed dictator as a leader, then no western country would even need to consider defensive strategies against Russia, let alone offensive ones

[Alph]

43 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I get that bit, but I was more questioning the OP who seemed to be suggesting that he was somehow forced into it (beginning a full scale military invasion of a neighbouring country) by "the west".

What did we do? And why did it trigger this now?

 

 

Instigate/stir Euromaidan protests, threaten the EAEU with NATO expansion, refuse to acknowledge referendum in Crimea, refuse to acknowledge pro Russian republics in Donbas and Georgia etc etc

Generally just help any nation that attacks Russian republics while NATO fortifying these nations. 

That seems to be their narrative as far as I can tell. 

To Putin this isn't a surprise war. I don't think the Cold War ever ended for him and his kind and I think this is probably his life's work. 

I guess the West seems to have weak leaders, China as an ally has some influence, Russian money buys some control in the west, Russia is rebuilt, he's getting old, has removed all political opponents and probably spurred on by their special relationship with Germany and then Ukraine heading west. 

He's repeated time and time again that he won't stand by while Russia's enemies surround and isolate them. 

Whether that's happening or not I guess is the ultimate debate

Edited February 27, 2022 by Alpha

[Highgate]

1 hour ago, GenBr said:

 Now they feel they have no choice but to make desperate gambles like this.

I think you are committing the inevitability of history fallacy. Thinking that after something has happened, it could only have happened like it did. Putin had plenty of options available and he could certainly have chosen not to have invaded Ukraine. Indeed, if Russia had another leader in charge nothing like this would have occurred.....probably.

Many people will agree with you, myself included, that the relentless expansion of Nato towards Russian borders has always been an understandable concern for Russians and made them feel that the West was still on an adversarial footing even after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, this point notwithstanding, this indefensible choice by Putin was as avoidable as it was deplorable. The consequences for Russia could turn out to be as dire as those for Ukraine.

[jono]

45 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I don't get this - what has changed between the fall of the Soviet Union and now which  means that Russia suddenly has "no choice" but to begin a hostile military assault on another democratic country?

 

 

My feelings are that it goes something like this

Putin has a lot of internal strife in Russia. He needs something big to deflect from it.

He really does want a big Russia with greater global power and influence. He is vain beyond belief. The fighting sharks, finding submerged antiquities, riding a horse bare chested. All part of his make up. He also has supreme power and no need (in the short / medium term ) to pander to an electorate 

Late 20th century / early 21st Western Culture has been creeping eastward over the last 30 years. It’s a weird mix of US right leaning mass market commerce and home grown left leaning European liberalism. They get on surprisingly well with each other. There isn’t  much space for the likes of Trump /  Corbyn / Le Pen or any ideologues  to endure for any length of time before the mass of ordinary balanced people start laughing at the them, either internally or with their trading partners. And ….we are allowed to laugh. When you are laughed at enough you lose an election and it’s Buggin’s turn. 

No way would the west ever invade Russia BUT it would be gradually absorbed as it is culturally swallowed by that weird mixture that erodes the chance of despots to gain traction or even breath. In Putins terms that is a huge threat

 (Of course one could say that Apple, Instagram and Amazon are despots in disguise - Discuss ?) 

 

[Mick Brolly]

The guns we've sent look a bit shlit 

[TigerTedd]

1 hour ago, GenBr said:

If Ukraine joined NATO virtually every major western Russian city would be within spitting distance of hostile forces.

Why do they have to be hostile forces though? He could be within spitting distance of friendly forces if he just made friends with everyone and wasn’t such a shifty rick with his finger on the button. 

the only reason people take a defensive stance against him, is because he’s so blatantly aggressive. NATO would be stupid not to keep their eye on him. But they don’t give a poo about Costa Rica. He should be like Costa Rica. 

[jono]

4 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Why do they have to be hostile forces though? He could be within spitting distance of friendly forces if he just made friends with everyone and wasn’t such a shifty rick with his finger on the button. 

the only reason people take a defensive stance against him, is because he’s so blatantly aggressive. NATO would be stupid not to keep their eye on him. But they don’t give a poo about Costa Rica. He should be like Costa Rica. 

Quite ! If Russia wanted to flog the world some of their gas and make a pile of money at our expense, but subscribe to Amazon Prime, accept that being gay is normal, lay off the hacking, play football, drink Vodka and at least nod to environmental awareness whilst allowing its citizens to elect a leader of their choice there would be no opposition or threat from the west or anyone else .. Apart from the usual bitching that goes on between people across Europe who generally play by the same rules that have worked pretty successfully for the last 80 years.

[sage]

2 minutes ago, jono said:

Quite ! If Russia wanted to flog the world some of their gas and make a pile of money at our expense, but subscribe to Amazon Prime, accept that being gay is normal, lay off the hacking, play football, drink Vodka and at least nod to environmental awareness whilst allowing its citizens to elect a leader of their choice there would be no opposition or threat from the west or anyone else .. Apart from the usual bitching that goes on between people across Europe who generally play by the same rules that have worked pretty successfully for the last 80 years.

Agreed. Ultimately, they could have joined NATO 

[Alph]

I think maybe Russia would be on a different path if they had leadership from people not KGB officers during the Soviet collapse

I think young Russia feels European. 

The older generation, I think their pride blinds them. 

[Alph]

Having said that, USA and their constant meddling and military operations are no better. 

Shouting "freedom, democracy and God bless America" is as sickening, imo, as Putin claiming NATO forced him to fire missiles at Ukranian cities. 

[BaaLocks]

3 hours ago, jono said:

I was thinking about this. If you are Putin and enjoy being a despot you wouldn’t want NATO knocking on your door. 
Thing is though, other than pushing Sadam out of  invaded Kuwait NATO hasn’t really invaded anyone. 

What the west does do .. is invade everywhere with iPhones, popular culture, credit cards and tree hugging. Things Despots aren’t that keen on. 

I'm not going to get dragged into too much of this because I have family directly involved but I thought I would offer a few words that might help some understand the perspective from the other side.

- Putin is not a despot, he is not in this for personal gain or infamy. He rationally believes that Ukraine was ripped away from Russia at the break up of the Soviet Union. Kiev is the historic founding of the Russian people, Russians view Ukraine as their cousins in much the same way that Scots and Irish do - they are Slavs by 'tribe' in the same way that Scots are Celts. BTW - I do recognize that Ukraine is a divided country itself and many Catholic Ukrainians (in the West of the country) would not share this view. Ukraine has been independent since 1991 but this is not a country with thousands of years of independence, for most of it's history it has been a part of Russia, Austro-Hungary or Poland. Again, I repeat, this does not entitle invasion but Putin is merely of the belief he needs to reset things to what they were.

- Consequently, Putin is repeatedly saying that what he is doing is for Mother Russia. I don't say I agree with it, but it's not as simple as the 'evil regime' some in the West are trying to put on him. Back in Russia he is very popular and has done (without doubt) a huge amount to lift up the standard of living of nearly all Russians. Moscow, and many other cities, are great places to live and the support networks that most Russians enjoy put ours to shame (schools, local councils, healthcare etc).

- This goes back to the breakup of the Berlin Wall, at the very latest. At that time the Soviet Union was dissolved, and the Russians were largely humilated in the years after with the ways they were forced to (for example) decommission nuclear weapons unilaterally in return for aid. And, as Putin says, 'even this was not enough for the West' as they then funded seperatists in Chechnya, Georgia and other areas. The West, largely the US, has interfered in Russian domestic matters consistently while at the very same time castigating Russia for doing the same (e.g. Syria).

- Without doubt, and again not trying to excuse anyone, Russians are endemically paranoid - and have been way before the WWII (or the Great Patriotic War as they call it) and are bathed in the belief that the actions of their fathers (and let's not forget without their laying down 35 million lives it is pretty clear the Second World War would not have ended when it did - at least) should not go to waste. Churchill famously described Russia as a riddle inside a mystery inside an enigma (or something maybe not in that order) and the West has repeatedly failed to see this over the past thirty years, consitently failed to take the opportunity to calm the situation and understand it from the other side.

- The West has systemically tried to undermine Russia since the Berlin Wall dissolved. Of course, in later years, Russia has reacted to this (Salisbury poisionings, election interfering etc) with clear hostility but don't forget, it's not too long since British spies were caught laying cameras outside influential locations in Moscow.

- There is a unique moment here for Putin to act. America is weak, the world is still reeling from the pandemic, Germany is in political transition, the US and the UK have (let's keep it polite) leaders that will not be remembered as the greatest to serve their country. And alongside this, Russia has been told to step back on watch the US try to control the Middle East (Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan) among other activities. If you are interested in American foreign policy look up a concept called 'manifest destiny' - Russians reject the American belief that they have the right to go imposing their views on other people in their countries - even President Xi of China said the same thing the other day. Now when Russia says they want to 'integrate' Ukraine back under their control (again, let's not forget that Ukraine has declared intent to join NATO, to have NATO military right up against Russian borders - for a country that remembers being invaded in 1941, like it or not, this is just not acceptable so Russia sees this as the best way to prevent that) there was no reasonable way to look at that (note: in 2014 the referendum in Donbass and Lugansk clearly voted to be part of Russia. Yes, you can question the result but it was a bit more than 52%, if I may). BTW - there are already seven states reintegrating back into a sort of CIS style trading block, including some of the 'stans, Belarus and Armenia. This is not just about reinventing the Soviet Union.

So, what is happening is horrific, it's undefendable as an action but it is also possible to take a moment to understand why it was done and what the rational is behind it.

Final point - it would help a LOT if someone could get Liz Truss to read this post as her references and statements are so incorrect in their frames of history that they are insulting and completely unhelpful. That, above all, is my biggest fear - not Putin (who let's not forget has been in power since before Boris even got into politics in any form) but that the, frankly, amateurs on this side of the fence simply don't know what they are dealiing with. We desperately need a Merkel, even a Thatcher, who can handle this in the way that is needed, not some of the faux Churchillian bombast seen from too many (not just UK) leaders.

Hope that helps, as I say I'm not doing debate on it - if you disagree please feel free to do so but, with all respect, I have friends and family to be looking out for at this time so please excuse me if this doesn't answer all the points.

BTW - for anyone reading this who is Ukranian, my heart goes out to what your country is being put through. My prayers are that this can be resolved quickly and without more bloodshed.

But, and be sure, this is the single biggest threat to all our lives since at least WWII (may even including, given we didn't have nuclear bombs then). This only takes one person to misunderstand one signal, one command, one movement and we are all toast. Very, very worrying.

Edited February 27, 2022 by BaaLocks