The Ukraine War

[AndyinLiverpool]

2 minutes ago, ketteringram said:

Anybody think he's not mad enough to use it?

He definitely is. We have to hope there are people inside the regime that can stop him.

[Highgate]

3 hours ago, I am Ram said:

Where's the EU in all this, the response from them is all self interest. Germany - gas, Italy- fashion etc, EU do nothing on the world stage, it's just a vip club.   

For the first time in it's history the EU will fund the sending of arms to a country outside the EU.  Technically not allowed under EU law, so they are developing a work via various loop-holes to get the weapons to Ukraine.  Germany also for the first time since WWII will send arms to a foreign conflict. Plus there is talks of the SWIFT ban on Russian banks which could hit Russia's ability to fund the war.  I guess Russia might retaliate by turning off the gas.

I guess we all should have built more wind turbines and battery storage now!

I still can't figure out why Biden repeatedly openly admitted the US would not engage militarily with Russia in the event of an invasion of the Ukraine.  Surely that's bad strategy.  Even if they had no intention of defending Ukraine with their own soldiers....they could have at least kept Russia guessing as to their reaction (like they do with China and Taiwan).  Instead, Biden seemed to inadvertently give Putin the green light for the invasion. Surely that wasn't his intention but why on Earth give the Russians the intelligence they desired to easily...they would pay spies good money for that sort of info.

[I am Ram]

44 minutes ago, GenBr said:

Russia hasnt been a superpower since the fall of the berlin wall. They are a regional power at best.

Their economy is very weak and the war is apparently costing the russians £20 billion per day. They are on a timer and they need to end things quick before it totally ruins them.

Their military is a paper tiger as well - its modernised a lot in recent years, but its still riddled with corruption and incompetent leaders.

I class them as a superpower based on the fact they have the most nukes.

[Alph]

In the latest move against Moscow the EU, UK, Canada and the US said “selected Russian banks” would be cut off from the SWIFT international payments system — a measure Russia has warned in the past would be regarded as a declaration of war. Despite the threat of further measures, Lukashenko stressed that both Russia and Belarus will “survive” any sanctions.

We have experience. We discussed this theme with Putin more than once. We’ll survive. It is impossible to starve us to death,” he said.

Retaliatory measures being developed by Moscow and Minsk will be “very tangible,” but it is important to think them over “very carefully,” Lukashenko said, not to self-harm.

The Belarusian leader has also said if the West moved to put nuclear weapons in bordering countries, he would ask Putin to “return” its own nuclear weapons to Belarus.

[I am Ram]

Ukraine officials are to meet Russian officials, on the Ukraine/Belarus border. Go on boys, give peace a chance.

[Alph]

13 minutes ago, I am Ram said:

Ukraine officials are to meet Russian officials, on the Ukraine/Belarus border. Go on boys, give peace a chance.

With Ukraine still holding all the key objectives and Russia come as far as it has I wonder what each side will concede. 

Can you see Ukraine agreeing never to be part of NATO? They'll be more determined than ever now, I imagine

Will Putin even settle for Donbas republics being recognised if it's even on the table? Having come this far.

 

[Alph]

Ukraine is releasing inmates and criminal suspects with a military background so they can join the fight against Russia’s “special operation”  in the country, an official in Ukraine's prosecutor general’s office confirmed on Sunday.

Sinyuk was quoted by Hromadske as saying that Sergey Torbin, a former combat veteran, was one of the inmates released. Torbin previously fought in the conflict with the DPR and LPR. He was jailed for six years and six months in 2018 for his role in the murder of a civil rights activist and anti-corruption campaigner Kateryna Handziuk. The woman was doused with acid in July 2018 on a street outside her home and died in the hospital with severe burns later that year.

Sinyuk said Torbin handpicked former inmates for his squad after his early release. He added that another ex-serviceman, Dmitry Balabukha, sentenced to nine years in jail for stabbing a man to death at a bus stop after an argument in 2018, had also been released.

[Alph]

Don't know if it's just Russian propaganda 

[ketteringram]

Curious as to how much of this is down to one person. Yes, surrounded by yes men, but if he was suddenly 'gone', would the overall situation suddenly get better, or a whole lot worse. 

[Eddie]

3 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Ukraine is releasing inmates and criminal suspects with a military background so they can join the fight against Russia’s “special operation”  in the country, an official in Ukraine's prosecutor general’s office confirmed on Sunday.

Sinyuk was quoted by Hromadske as saying that Sergey Torbin, a former combat veteran, was one of the inmates released. Torbin previously fought in the conflict with the DPR and LPR. He was jailed for six years and six months in 2018 for his role in the murder of a civil rights activist and anti-corruption campaigner Kateryna Handziuk. The woman was doused with acid in July 2018 on a street outside her home and died in the hospital with severe burns later that year.

Sinyuk said Torbin handpicked former inmates for his squad after his early release. He added that another ex-serviceman, Dmitry Balabukha, sentenced to nine years in jail for stabbing a man to death at a bus stop after an argument in 2018, had also been released.

Netflix to make The Dirty Dozenski in 5...4...3...

[I am Ram]

4 minutes ago, Alpha said:

With Ukraine still holding all the key objectives and Russia come as far as it has I wonder what each side will concede. 

Can you see Ukraine agreeing never to be part of NATO? They'll be more determined than ever now, I imagine

Will Putin even settle for Donbas republics being recognised if it's even on the table? Having come this far.

 

I don't think Ukraine will concede, i'm not sure how Russia will react, it's starting to look bad for them. Reports of heavy casualties, protests in 44 cities at home, i'm leaning towards Putin being overthrown.

[Alph]

Just now, ketteringram said:

Curious as to how much of this is down to one person. Yes, surrounded by yes men, but if he was suddenly 'gone', would the overall situation suddenly get better, or a whole lot worse. 

Isn't there a number of politicians, mostly of an age old enough to witness the collapse of the Soviet Union that claim the Cold War never ended. 

Even a "rival" spoke out saying Ukraine are Russian people ruled by American puppets. Its hard to find any news on any internal objections. Except by Russian citizens of course. 

[GenBr]

41 minutes ago, Highgate said:

 

I still can't figure out why Biden repeatedly openly admitted the US would not engage militarily with Russia in the event of an invasion of the Ukraine.  Surely that's bad strategy.  Even if they had no intention of defending Ukraine with their own soldiers....they could have at least kept Russia guessing as to their reaction (like they do with China and Taiwan).  Instead, Biden seemed to inadvertently give Putin the green light for the invasion. Surely that wasn't his intention but why on Earth give the Russians the intelligence they desired to easily...they would pay spies good money for that sort of info.

Its not bad strategy. Ukraine arent in Nato. The united states isnt starting a nuclear world war 3 over ukraine. Doesnt matter what Biden says - the Russians already knew the Americans would only be involved in a support capacity at best.

Taiwan is more of an edge case, but i still dont think its very likely that the USA gets involved in any potential invasion.

41 minutes ago, I am Ram said:

I class them as a superpower based on the fact they have the most nukes.

Other than nuclear weapons their ability to project power and influence across the globe is extremely limited.

The UK has enough nukes to destroy every major Russian city, but that doesnt make us a superpower either.

[Alph]

5 minutes ago, I am Ram said:

I don't think Ukraine will concede, i'm not sure how Russia will react, it's starting to look bad for them. Reports of heavy casualties, protests in 44 cities at home, i'm leaning towards Putin being overthrown.

Keep him from that red button before anyone dreams of removing him and his immediate advisors! 

Nuclear weapons might be his insurance policy to protect him from threats closer to home

[GenBr]

4 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Isn't there a number of politicians, mostly of an age old enough to witness the collapse of the Soviet Union that claim the Cold War never ended. 

Even a "rival" spoke out saying Ukraine are Russian people ruled by American puppets. Its hard to find any news on any internal objections. Except by Russian citizens of course. 

In fairness to the Russians its not like the west treated them any better after the fall of Communism. They are still surrounded by Nato and American bases even more so than they were during the cold war.

The west could have tried to bring russia back into the fold (and i know why we didnt given the events of the past 50 years), but every action weve taken for the last 20 years seems intended to further isolate and antagonise the Russian state. Now they feel they have no choice but to make desperate gambles like this.

[I am Ram]

Just now, GenBr said:

Its not bad strategy. Ukraine arent in Nato. The united states isnt starting a nuclear world war 3 over ukraine. Doesnt matter what Biden says - the Russians already knew the Americans would only be involved in a support capacity at best.

Taiwan is more of an edge case, but i still dont think its very likely that the USA gets involved in any potential invasion.

Other than nuclear weapons their ability to project power and influence across the globe is extremely limited.

The UK has enough nukes to destroy every major Russian city, but that doesnt make us a superpower either.

I agree with your comments about the state of the Russian army in general,  i guess Biden has got to careful and show strength, with China watching. It's a big game of chess.

[I am Ram]

8 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Keep him from that red button before anyone dreams of removing him and his immediate advisors! 

Nuclear weapons might be his insurance policy to protect him from threats closer to home

I'm just thinking Alpha, all these Russian billionaires must have some life, not easy to give up and go back to being a caveman.

[Highgate]

8 minutes ago, GenBr said:

Its not bad strategy. Ukraine arent in Nato. The united states isnt starting a nuclear world war 3 over ukraine. Doesnt matter what Biden says - the Russians already knew the Americans would only be involved in a support capacity at best.

Taiwan is more of an edge case, but i still dont think its very likely that the USA gets involved in any potential invasion.

Other than nuclear weapons their ability to project power and influence across the globe is extremely limited.

The UK has enough nukes to destroy every major Russian city, but that doesnt make us a superpower either.

I understand that the US doesn't want to put troops on the ground.  It would be a huge step...and potentially catastrophic for all concerned.  But what possible advantage is there to announce this to the world beforehand?  Why not simply use the Taiwan strategy and say nothing. If your adversary can figure out your intentions then fair enough...but don't simply tell them.  I have a feeling Biden plays poker with his cards facing outwards..

[Alph]

13 minutes ago, GenBr said:

In fairness to the Russians its not like the west treated them any better after the fall of Communism. They are still surrounded by Nato and American bases even more so than they were during the cold war.

The west could have tried to bring russia back into the fold (and i know why we didnt given the events of the past 50 years), but every action weve taken for the last 20 years seems intended to further isolate and antagonise the Russian state. Now they feel they have no choice but to make desperate gambles like this.

Agree 100%. 

[PistoldPete]

1 hour ago, AndyinLiverpool said:

What bit of that isn't self-interest?

It is self interest in the  way that any humanitarian response is self interest, but otherwise not.