The Ukraine War

[Highgate]

15 minutes ago, 1of4 said:

Not heard much from the UN security council. But with Russia being one of it's permanent members, I expect there won't be a lot of action from the UN.

Russia currently holds the presidency of the Security Council.   The timing of this invasion is probably not coincidental. 

[1of4]

19 minutes ago, cstand said:

Why would anyone would bring up current domestic politics into this debate its irrelevant and a distraction. Let’s hope it’s the last.

Because it involves Russia and shows how they've stuck their grubby fingers into not just ours but other countries affairs. In the hope they would get no pushback from these countries while doing what they are doing in Ukraine at the moment.

[Comrade 86]

Chaps by essence, this is a geo-political thread. It then follows that the roles of Western governments, before during and after this invasion will be discussed and debated. We were not asked to avoid political discourse, rather we were asked to avoid name-calling.

Back on topic, Putin has apparently offered to take part in peace talks in Minsk. I somehow doubt the sincerity of this offer and think it most likely that any such talks would achieve little more than delaying further sanctions and outside intervention as well as providing another opportunity for Putin to grandstand and make demands he knows will not be accepted.

Meanwhile, Russian forces appear to be trying to encircle Kyiv but are being met with fierce local resistance which may also explain Putin's rather timely offer of peace talks. Other reports claim that Russia has also restricted access to Facebook and other social media which may in itself be an indicator that what 'progress' is being made is being done so at a higher cost than expected.

There's little doubt in my mind that Putin has been planning this action for a very long time and that this was to be his 'opus', but I do wonder whether in the same way that the West has underestimated Putin's obsession with his legacy, whether Putin himself has underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainian people to meet every act of aggression head on. I also wonder whether an ever-increasingly unsettled Russian populous (or the military for that matter) will tolerate losing many young men to what appears to be little more than a Putin 'vanity project' should the fighting turn as bloody and unrelenting as now seems likely. My hope is that he may have finally overplayed his hand, though even if he has, whether a wounded and defeated Putin is less of threat than an apparently omnipotent one, is very hard to surmise. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by 86 Hair Islands

[Carl Sagan]

2 hours ago, Leeds Ram said:

The cuban missile crisis analogy doesn't hold much water. For a start, there was an agreement to remove nuclear weapons from said space. Second, NATO is a purely defensive arrangement in Eastern Europe, the missile crisis occurred at a period of strategic offensive relations i.e., the missiles could have been a gun pointed at the US's head, Ukraine joining NATO is trying to stop a gun being pointed to their head. Third, this manoeuvre is occurring as a part of a strategically expansionist Russian president. 

A no fly position is not a bad one. I'm not sure why everyone is saying because two powers have nuclear weapons that means no conflict at all can occur, that's not the doctrine of MAD or realist politics that position it. A no fly would begin an escalation yes but escalation is by definition necessary to stop further incursions. Russia cannot be allowed to dictate terms of other sovereign nations or carve up bits of other countries, that has already been attempted in Georgia and it's a policy that failed wholesale. At this point NATO and other organisations need to put a high enough price on this to make sure Russia doesn't do this again. 

I'd also add Merkel being gone doesn't matter one bit, she and her various coalitions indulged this nonsense from day 1 in the name of 'peace'. 

It's easy to claim from the West that NATO is an entirely defensive organization and if Ukraine joined that would continue to be the case. But put yourself on the other side of the divide. From the East, NATO looks hugely powerful. It has already expanded to "capture" almost all of Eastern Europe. 

It also invaded Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan, destroying those nations. Where next? 

I remain horrified that there are people who genuinely appear to think NATO jets shooting down Russian ones wouldn't have the most terrible consequences. 

There will always be conflicts unless you can put yourself in the mind of non-Western leaders. And try to understand why they have acted as they have. 

While Putin's actions are terrible here, we need to work out a solution that deescalates rather than pouring more fuel onto the fire. But it is obviously complex and difficult. 

[GboroRam]

"Couple demand refund for Blackpool gig 'because Ukraine war makes it unsafe to travel from Hull'" 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/couple-demand-refund-blackpool-gig-23218547

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

"Couple demand refund for Blackpool gig 'because Ukraine war makes it unsafe to travel from Hull'" 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/couple-demand-refund-blackpool-gig-23218547

Can you change the title of the thread to

HULL SIEGE & Ukraine war

 

[Mucker1884]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

"Couple demand refund for Blackpool gig 'because Ukraine war makes it unsafe to travel from Hull'" 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/couple-demand-refund-blackpool-gig-23218547

Quote

In the club's email response, manager Ryan Gleeson told the customer that they wouldn't be issuing refunds over a war in another country.

The email stated: "As Rob mentioned, you are not entitled to a refund, simply because you live 'nearer to Russia than we do'."

"We genuinely didn’t think we’d need to say this, but Russia moving troops into Ukraine does not entitle you to a refund, no matter how abusive you are to our Box Office staff," they said in a tweet.

"As far as we're aware, Russia hasn't invaded Hull yet."

?

[PistoldPete]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

"Couple demand refund for Blackpool gig 'because Ukraine war makes it unsafe to travel from Hull'" 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/couple-demand-refund-blackpool-gig-23218547

Well the war is especially dangerous for them because they are retired. Of course.

Edited February 26, 2022 by PistoldPete

[TigerTedd]

11 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

I was due to go to St Petersburg in July for a maths conference

Dodged that bullet then. 

[Van der MoodHoover]

Why is our armed forces minister saying that we cannot do more to help Ukraine without declaring war on Russia? 

I thought that all of our armed actions for decades took place without formal declarations of war? 

Falklands, Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan.....?

[TigerTedd]

I hope we don’t get involved. But also hope that the Ukrainians stick it to the Russians. That this becomes their Vietnam. 

this could seriously backfire on Russia. If you were bordering Russia who have now shown themselves to be happy to invade neighbours, wouldn’t you want the power of NATO behind you, rather than having to face them alone, as Ukraine is doing? If Ukraine were a member of NATO, we’d have to go and defend them. They’re going to want that more than ever now. 

Imagine they end uk having to send more and more troops and leave the rest of Russia unprotected. Cheeky counter-invasion through Estonia anyone?

[ariotofmyown]

4 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Cheeky counter-invasion through Estonia anyone?

Let's wait until November. A winter invasion into Russia usually works well.

[TigerTedd]

I’m going to bang my eco-warrior drum here, but a lot (but certainly not all) of this, and other recent conflicts, are about access to oil and gas.

If wed have invested in green technologies years ago, we’d be solving the climate crisis, and lessening our reliance on external fossil fuel resources.

time for my smug face, but I disconnected my gad last year, got solar panels and batteries, and I’ve got my electric car arriving next week. So gas price rises and petrol price rises won’t effect me. I’m alright Jack, but it annoys me that the whole world hadn’t been encouraged to jump on this band wagon years ago. Russia, Saidia Arabia, all these oil rich countries, would be a lot less powerful now. 

[TigerTedd]

2 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Let's wait until November. A winter invasion into Russia usually works well.

I’m all for it. I’ve got my issued long johns packed. 

[Van der MoodHoover]

4 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

I’m going to bang my eco-warrior drum here, but a lot (but certainly not all) of this, and other recent conflicts, are about access to oil and gas.

If wed have invested in green technologies years ago, we’d be solving the climate crisis, and lessening our reliance on external fossil fuel resources.

time for my smug face, but I disconnected my gad last year, got solar panels and batteries, and I’ve got my electric car arriving next week. So gas price rises and petrol price rises won’t effect me. I’m alright Jack, but it annoys me that the whole world hadn’t been encouraged to jump on this band wagon years ago. Russia, Saidia Arabia, all these oil rich countries, would be a lot less powerful now. 

Dunno about you, but my leccy just went up 50% so don't think you're entirely insulated..... 

[GboroRam]

34 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Why is our armed forces minister saying that we cannot do more to help Ukraine without declaring war on Russia? 

I thought that all of our armed actions for decades took place without formal declarations of war? 

Falklands, Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan.....?

Berwick upon Tweed thinking, here we go again. 

https://www.undiscoveredscotland.co.uk/berwick/berwickupontweed/index.html#:~:text=When Queen Victoria signed the,in 1856%2C leaving the town

[TigerTedd]

12 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Dunno about you, but my leccy just went up 50% so don't think you're entirely insulated..... 

you’re not wrong, I just had a shocking electricity bill that I had to do some negotiation on yesterday and got a grand knocked off. I can’t recommend i to pjs highly enough. Now I can charge my car and my house batteries up overnight at 7.5p a unit, and then use my batteries throughout the day.

but, this isn’t about that. I’m just very annoyed that at a time when all countries should be coming together to talk about how to become less reliant on fossil fuels and invest in renewable energy sources, instead we’re going to war, again, over getting access to fossil fuels.

The planet doesn’t have time for us to be fannying about with wars, this’ll set us back 10 years that we can’t afford. Let Russia have chrimea, it’ll all be underwater in 20 years anyway.

 

[Boycie]

16 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

you’re not wrong, I just had a shocking electricity bill that I had to do some negotiation on yesterday and got a grand knocked off. I can’t recommend i to pjs highly enough. Now I can charge my car and my house batteries up overnight at 7.5p a unit, and then use my batteries throughout the day.

but, this isn’t about that. I’m just very annoyed that at a time when all countries should be coming together to talk about how to become less reliant on fossil fuels and invest in renewable energy sources, instead we’re going to war, again, over getting access to fossil fuels.

The planet doesn’t have time for us to be fannying about with wars, this’ll set us back 10 years that we can’t afford. Let Russia have chrimea, it’ll all be underwater in 20 years anyway.

 

Can’t recommend who highly enough?

[TigerTedd]

39 minutes ago, Boycie said:

Can’t recommend who highly enough?

I to pjs of course. Have you not heard of them?

otherwise known as Octopus. Although now I think about it, that does sound like the name of an evil corporation in James Bond or Marvel. 

[Grumpy Git]

3 hours ago, GboroRam said:

"Couple demand refund for Blackpool gig 'because Ukraine war makes it unsafe to travel from Hull'" 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/couple-demand-refund-blackpool-gig-23218547

I find it scary that this couple have a vote.