Relegation watch

[Jimbo Ram]

17 minutes ago, Barney1991 said:

All I see is us Birmingham Rotherham and Sheffield Wednesday. Why does no one mention Coventry they could well go 

Easier run in than us and Brum...

[StantonRam]

Mathematically no one below 15th is safe, but the 3 for the drop will probably come from the current bottom 6 including us.  I'd suggest that the odds of going down are pretty much the same as the current positions, with us being the least likely and Wycombe the most likely.  Haven't checked the odds at the bookies but wouldn't be surprised if that's the case.  Rotherham probably have better odds of survival than their position suggests due to the games in hand.

My figure of 50 points was aimed at absolute mathematical safety at the final whistle on the last day.  Like all of us I really hope that 47/48/49 will be enough, but then again it might not be.

The extent to which we now depend on others below losing is a bit scary TBH, it's got to the stage where I cheer louder when one of the other bottom 6 teams loses or concedes a goal than when we score, not that this happens often at the moment LOL.

Yesterday was a very significant result for the maths.  Now Rotherham, with 4 games in hand, know that they can overtake us with 2 wins for them and 2 defeats for us in the next 2 games.  And their goal difference is better than ours, much better in fact.  Therefore their players will really be up for a scrap in the next few weeks, let's hope that our lot are as well!

3 other teams around us have one game in hand - Hudd, Cov, Sheff W.

I do hope that Wazza and the staff have a plan to get us to the 50 points somehow, even if it involves some dubious "game management" tactics......

[plymouthram]

9 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

Am particularly heartened to read that you relegation predictions change like the wind on a weekly basis. 

Am guessing on the final game of the season they'll change again to reflect actually who does go down. 

Its a bit like watching a live game on Sky sports, a team gets an early goal and dominate the first 20 mins, the pundit/commentator will state something like "it looks like the away side have got control of this match and will be taking the points tonight". The 2nd half starts, the home team make a couple of substitutions midway through the half. Suddenly the game changes, the away side run out of idea's, the home side dominante and score three. The game ends 3-1 to the home team and all of a sudden the same pundit/commentator is dishing out the praise to certain players of the home team and never mentions about his prediction earlier in the game.

Just like a match, things change and within 2 or 3 games the league table changes. So my opinion can change and this is what this forum site is all about (opinions). I mentioned Preston because of their recent 3 match losing run. To back what I stated last night, there was a write up in todays Sunday Mirror on Preston's home game that they lost to Luton. The comments taken from their manager, Alex Neil were "I'm looking over my Shoulder" which was reference to only 2 wins in 11 and 20 defeats so far this season.

I could never predict all the results (if I could I'd be raking the money in at the bookies). But its my take on the relegation watch and I expect it to change (thats football for you, especially the Championship). If it does go down to the final game of the season, I hope the Rams are not involved. I will stick my neck out and state Derby will not go down this season. The bookies latest odds have Wycombe, Wednesday and Birmingham with Rotherham a close 4th. Even they could change their betting odds on relegation after the Easter weekend. Latest odds from website called  "Championship betting odds/english football/oddschecker"

[plymouthram]

14 hours ago, Jourdan said:

After you made a point of calling me out for being chief worrier, I have followed your predictions and observations with interest.

In the space of less than four weeks, it has gone from:

’We are safe and we have absolutely nothing to worry about. Nothing can go wrong. This thread will be closed soon.’

to

’Forest could get sucked in. Look at their March fixtures.’

to

‘Rotherham play thug football and are the devil’s head lice. They will surely go down.’

to

‘Birmingham will go down. No, Rotherham. No, Birmingham. No, Rotherham.’

to

‘OK, it could be any two from eight, even Preston. We need 8 points.’

We are currently on a run of one win in nine, we have chalked up zero wins and just two points and two goals scored in March with an equally tough April to follow.

We have both Huddersfield and Forest above us despite taking four points off them, and now have Coventry, Birmingham and Rotherham all closing in on us.

I wouldn’t usually go out of my way to make such a point, but perhaps now you can see why I was worried and that the concerns of myself and many others were actually valid?

A bit over the top, never stated you were "the chief worrier" and never called Rotherham the "Devil's head lice". Yes I admit to stating we were safe nothing to worry about quite a few weeks ago. Opinions can change, just like the forms of teams can change. This is a forum which fans will express their opinions and we will all see blogs that we agree with or totally disagree with. As fans we all have different views, some are much more optimistic than others. Some just get angry with the choice of manager, his tactics, style of play or they will dig out a player they do not rate.

Please do not make things up about what I have stated, it seems you are digging me out for having an opinion and being optimistic about Derby County. I personally think our form will pick up and the International break could be what we needed. Don't act like Piers Morgan and shout everyone down having your opinion and others that are optimistic about their team. And at the end of the season if we stay up, I won't be gloating and shouting "I told you so", I will pleased like every Rams would be.

[TheresOnlyWanChope]

I will keep the faith that we will stay up but this is partly down to blind faith/not wanting to change my prediction and optimism that we can show a bit of fight and quality. In reality, I think this is the worst Derby team I have ever seen,  27 goals in total, not had more than 3 shots on target in 7 matches. I think there will be one eye on league 1, not confident there are three worst teams than us. I do wonder how we would do in league 1. I think COVID has killed us. I really don't think we would be this bad with fans in the stadium but I actually think we could go without winning another match this season. No positives at the moment. 

[hintonsboots]

6/1 odds on us going down. What’s the difference in funding per club in the Championship/ League 1 ? Worth laying a bet to fund a promotion push, 500k should do it ??

[Jourdan]

3 hours ago, plymouthram said:

A bit over the top, never stated you were "the chief worrier" and never called Rotherham the "Devil's head lice". Yes I admit to stating we were safe nothing to worry about quite a few weeks ago. Opinions can change, just like the forms of teams can change. This is a forum which fans will express their opinions and we will all see blogs that we agree with or totally disagree with. As fans we all have different views, some are much more optimistic than others. Some just get angry with the choice of manager, his tactics, style of play or they will dig out a player they do not rate.

Please do not make things up about what I have stated, it seems you are digging me out for having an opinion and being optimistic about Derby County. I personally think our form will pick up and the International break could be what we needed. Don't act like Piers Morgan and shout everyone down having your opinion and others that are optimistic about their team. And at the end of the season if we stay up, I won't be gloating and shouting "I told you so", I will pleased like every Rams would be.

You are entitled to your opinion. You can be as positive as you want. Believe me, I wish I could be as optimistic as you are about the club.

I am not shouting you down or digging you out, or even giving you the Piers Morgan treatment. Taking creative license and paraphrasing your views to make a point? OK, guilty.

Just please don’t pretend you are above giving others stick. Perhaps pay more attention to what you post and who you mention in your posts in future.

If you care to look back at your posts in this thread, you go out of your way to mention me multiple times when there was no need. You even went as far to say ‘Jourdan has gone quiet’ or words to those effect after a result went in our favour, basically implying I am some kind of instigator and take pleasure from being right more than seeing the club have success.

I hold nothing against you as a poster, but if you are going to single people out and give them stick for their views even when they prove to be completely valid, don’t be surprised when they come back at you.

[Parsnip]

If we lose to Luton, I can't even begin to see how we won't go down. And lose we will if Rooney is still in charge.

Sacking Rooney after the loss to Luton will be too late. 

Schteve will love that phone call too. Just imagine his little face when Mel asks him to step in and save the club. 

Do your job Mel, make the call.

[RadioactiveWaste]

44 minutes ago, Beetroot said:

Do your job Mel, make the call.

We'd all know that really it's because Mel enjoys sacking McClaren so much.

 

[Asanovic70]

I study the form & Luton will be challenging. They have only 1L against sides in the bottom half & 11/14W have come against sides in the lower half. I went against the stats for the Stoke game, hoping we'd take the Brentford 2nd half performance into this game, (Stoke had a record of 6W 2D 1L v lower half).

Preston have just sacked Alex Neil. I think he had taken the side as far as he could & then totally revamped it which has led to more instability. They are on 44pts & may have acted because they fear getting dragged into the dogfight. They have lost 10 in 16 since the New Year (3W), a run akin to Hull's last season. Virtually all their remaining fixtures, bar Stoke, are against sides needing points at either end of the table. (Our last 16, 6W 2D 8L)

I've always felt Rotherham might survive, Coventry as well especially now they have the incentive of returning to the Ricoh.

I'm afraid we are really in the scrap on current form & our inability to score & create chances from open-play. Defensively, we've held up until recently.

 

[Derbados]

I’ve taken some time to look at ours and our fellow relegation candidates remaining fixtures, current form and any factors that may positively affect the latter (new manager bounce etc) 

I hate to say it, and I sincerely hope I’m wrong and get torn to shreds for it and made to eat my words at the end of the season, but, we’re going down in the final relegation place and I’m absolutely convinced of it. 

I have no faith left in this squad, I hate to use this next word to describe them because it’s so damning and personal but honestly, we are a team full of fragile, placid, cowards. 

we can’t defend and we don’t score goals, it’s a recipe for disaster 

Worst part about it all is, I can’t see us pulling up any trees in league one either, mid table if we’re lucky. 

 

 

 

 

[Sean]

Funny, the exact same conversations and negative mindset is being played out on Sheffield Wednesday, Rotherham, Birmingham and Coventry's fan forums...

I think it'll come down to the last few games but I think we should just about be able to scrape the points needed, hopefully before Birmingham come to town. Going to be a crucial two weeks at Moor Farm from Rooney et al to get a result at Luton, win that and we should hopefully be able to take some confidence going forward.

[plymouthram]

1 hour ago, Jourdan said:

You are entitled to your opinion. You can be as positive as you want. Believe me, I wish I could be as optimistic as you are about the club.

I am not shouting you down or digging you out, or even giving you the Piers Morgan treatment. Taking creative license and paraphrasing your views to make a point? OK, guilty.

Just please don’t pretend you are above giving others stick. Perhaps pay more attention to what you post and who you mention in your posts in future.

If you care to look back at your posts in this thread, you go out of your way to mention me multiple times when there was no need. You even went as far to say ‘Jourdan has gone quiet’ or words to those effect after a result went in our favour, basically implying I am some kind of instigator and take pleasure from being right more than seeing the club have success.

I hold nothing against you as a poster, but if you are going to single people out and give them stick for their views even when they prove to be completely valid, don’t be surprised when they come back at you.

Please don't exaggerate when you state I mentioned you multiple times. I mentioned you twice on the posts(Relegation watch). The first time after reading your reply to "Rammy03" on the 17th Feb, your last sentence you wrote "I will come back and hold my hands up and say I was worrying over nothing" I then wrote an article on "relegation watch" the next day stating "Jourdan and others are worried" and then went on to explain my take on Derby's and other teams chances in the relegation battle. The 2nd mention was correct , I stated "Jourdan's gone quiet" this was after we had beaten Huddersfield 2-0 on the 23rd Feb and a couple of other results that evening had gone our way.

I agree in what you have stated in other posts about we are in a relegation battle because we have spent all the season in the bottom 8 places. I'm just a little bit more optimistic than some others, I try to look at the bigger picture by looking at the other teams around us and not just our results and performances. To get relegated from our current position, 3 teams below us would have to out score us on points. We can all quote that some teams below us have games in hand, but its a big ask to expect them to win them in their current form. You also mentioned the 50 points would put us safe, in the last 6 seasons barring 2016/17 teams have stayed up with less. By the way, that 2016/17 season saw Blackburn relegated on 51 points and Forest stayed up on 51 points with only a 2 goal margin on their goal diff. 

Well lets hope this International break goes in our favour and the Rams find a little form in the run in. I'm optimistic that we can find a couple of wins (or more) and a few draws to see us safe come the 8th May (or even before that day).

[Ghost of Clough]

3 hours ago, hintonsboots said:

6/1 odds on us going down. What’s the difference in funding per club in the Championship/ League 1 ? Worth laying a bet to fund a promotion push, 500k should do it ??

Hard to account for how much sponsorship we'd lose but the difference for most clubs changing divisoons is about £6m.

[PendineRam]

39 minutes ago, Derbados said:

I’ve taken some time to look at ours and our fellow relegation candidates remaining fixtures, current form and any factors that may positively affect the latter (new manager bounce etc) 

I hate to say it, and I sincerely hope I’m wrong and get torn to shreds for it and made to eat my words at the end of the season, but, we’re going down in the final relegation place and I’m absolutely convinced of it. 

I have no faith left in this squad, I hate to use this next word to describe them because it’s so damning and personal but honestly, we are a team full of fragile, placid, cowards. 

we can’t defend and we don’t score goals, it’s a recipe for disaster 

Worst part about it all is, I can’t see us pulling up any trees in league one either, mid table if we’re lucky. 

 

 

 

 

I have to say that I'm beginning to get the same awful feelings.

My dear old Dad always said 'you help yourself in this world, don't rely on others they'll let you down when you most need them!' We now need the players to step up but I fear they have shown all too clearly they ain't got the stomach for the fight! Unfortunately, Wayne hasn't got the managerial nous to find a way to get them to perform now the pressure is really building. In simple terms we need men but all we've got is mice! 

[Jourdan]

16 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

...

I apologise for my comments. Maybe I am being overly sensitive. Let’s let bygones be bygones.

I get a lot of stick for my posts, so I guess sometimes it wears me down. Seeing my name mentioned by you blindsided me a little. It’s tough being constantly painted as a misery guts, a doom monger, an instigator, the forum rain cloud.

I am just giving my views. I would love to be positive about the club.

But look at the last 24 months or even further back - it’s not made easy for us.

[Tamworthram]

9 hours ago, Beetroot said:

If we lose to Luton, I can't even begin to see how we won't go down. And lose we will if Rooney is still in charge.

Sacking Rooney after the loss to Luton will be too late. 

Schteve will love that phone call too. Just imagine his little face when Mel asks him to step in and save the club. 

Do your job Mel, make the call.

I avoid the phrase “must win games” when technically they’re not but Luton really is looking like a critical game. Fail to win and it really does feel like we’re reliant on others having an equally dismal run as us. Having said that, I’d be stunned if Rooney was sacked during this international break.

[BramcoteRam84]

Some posters saying we’re relying on other teams?! When I last checked we were out the bottom 3 with 8 games to go. We are a long way from relying on other teams results. We’ve had poor runs under Rooney already yet turned it around and had a good run, what’s to say it won’t happen again?

People are dismissing Coventry. They’ve not exactly been great since they beat us. All the other teams down there are stuttering.

48 points IMO should be enough. We’ve got 8 games with some home games where our form has been good. We are 1 of 6 (possibly 7 teams) with a chance of going down competing for 1 place. I quite fancy those odds. 
 

Still in our own hands, we’re more than capable. But we also must improve recent performances. 
 

 

[BrudeRAM]

Always thought we'd stay up but now I'm not so sure, we've fallen further than I thought possible recently with performances and- hate to say it- team selection and tactics. Calling out individual players in the interviews I don't think helps either in these sort of situations when confidence is already on the floor. Hope I'm wrong but if we don't pick a point up against Luton we're down in that 3rd relegation spot.

[TigerTedd]

10 hours ago, Beetroot said:

If we lose to Luton, I can't even begin to see how we won't go down. And lose we will if Rooney is still in charge.

Sacking Rooney after the loss to Luton will be too late. 

Schteve will love that phone call too. Just imagine his little face when Mel asks him to step in and save the club. 

Do your job Mel, make the call.

Wow. I’m almost looking forward to this ‘inevitable’ loss to Luton just to see the absolute melt down on here. 

Luton is not a must win game. The simple fact is, if we beat Birmingham and Wednesday, we stay up with no problems. They’re must win games, and they’re a few games away yet. We could loose every game in the mean time and it would make no difference (apart from in terms of intangible confidence stuff). 

If we loose to Luton, the season is not over, I just want to remind everyone of that before anyone does anything silly. This thread is starting to sound like a mass cry for help.