Is Warne living on borrowed time?

[May Contain Nuts]

21 minutes ago, Mick Brolly said:

Why does our budget keep getting mentioned when no one on here has a clue what it is 

They don't know, but they can make an educated guess based on quite a number of observable factors.

[Malagaram]

2 hours ago, Foreveram said:

Bloody well hope it is.

Warne is quoted as saying one or two of our players have "had their heads turned".

[RadioactiveWaste]

2 hours ago, Foreveram said:

So how can you put money on if you don’t know the odds.🤷🏻‍♂️

How can you set the odds if no one has put any money on.🤷🏻‍♂️

The starting point is based on what the bookie thinks will happen (usually adjusted by a degree to suit the bookie, the bookie wants to make money not pretend to be clairvoyant) - the initial odds are to tempt people into putting on.

But the bookies odds are then changed by the amount being bet, not to reflect what the probabilities are but to cover off the risk to the bookie.

So they're related but also subtlety different things which is what Wolf was getting at.

 

 

 

[CBX1985]

31 minutes ago, hintonsboots said:

Clowes is one of our own and his probably having many of the same thoughts as the rest of us when in fan mode. He hasn’t got Mel’s trigger finger and can’t afford to have it.

I don't think he is that short term in his thinking.  I think if Warne does not rectify, and put plans in to rectify, issues then there might be a conversation to be had next year (certainly after Christmas); at the moment we have lost one game (and a cup game).  We get a win against Burton the cycle revolves and "we have this in the bag" comments will start appearing.

It isn't going to be as good as we hope or as bad as we fear.  

[jimtastic56]

36 minutes ago, Malagaram said:

Warne is quoted as saying one or two of our players have "had their heads turned".

What does it say about us when players are getting their heads turned by Hull city and Bristol ?  Players certainly aren’t bothered about playing in front of 29,000 every home game .

[Reverend]

7 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

What does it say about us when players are getting their heads turned by Hull city and Bristol ?  Players certainly aren’t bothered about playing in front of 29,000 every home game .

McGoldrick had his head turned by Notts County. What does that say?

[angieram]

16 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

What does it say about us when players are getting their heads turned by Hull city and Bristol ?  Players certainly aren’t bothered about playing in front of 29,000 every home game .

Says they are in the Championship and we are in League One.

[Stockyram92]

17 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

What does it say about us when players are getting their heads turned by Hull city and Bristol ?  Players certainly aren’t bothered about playing in front of 29,000 every home game 

Or they just can't handle it

[jono]

All managers are on borrowed time. A couple of wins and last nights abject first 45 mins will be forgotten. 
 

My musings are .. if it’s 3 at the back then Fozzy has to play. If we do another adaptation that involves 4 in the back line then Bradly will do a great job. Will Warne try and push a single agenda or will he be brave enough to have more than one chosen set up ?

[jimtastic56]

5 minutes ago, angieram said:

Says they are in the Championship and we are in League One.

Very little confidence about us getting up this season then? Or is 12 month too long to wait?

[WestStandStartTheBounce]

6 minutes ago, jono said:

All managers are on borrowed time. A couple of wins and last nights abject first 45 mins will be forgotten. 
 

My musings are .. if it’s 3 at the back then Fozzy has to play. If we do another adaptation that involves 4 in the back line then Bradly will do a great job. Will Warne try and push a single agenda or will he be brave enough to have more than one chosen set up ?

I agree about Fozzy. he did a superb job back there last year. I don't think he plays well on the left, wonder strike aside.

[Pottig]

To me, the idea that PW is or would feel like he is under any pressure after only 2 games of a season is laughable.

So many on here need to give their heads a wobble and look at the situation we are in, and more realistically set their standards. PW won't be (and doesn't deserve to be) sacked anytime soon. I do think he should move away from a back 3, but calling for his head in early August is farcical.

[angieram]

9 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

Very little confidence about us getting up this season then? Or is 12 month too long to wait?

I think if I am 22, being played in  a system I don't think suits my skills (or reflects 12 years of my academy training) then yes, I'd rather have cake today than the promise of maybe cake tomorrow if I'm a good boy. Especially if I'm being offered my favourite, instead of having to make do with brandy snaps all season! 

I don't think anyone can criticise the commitment of any of our academy graduates after what they've been through in the last few years.

If any go, they do so with my very best wishes.

[LittleEatonRam]

17 hours ago, Andicis said:

This is an absolutely brilliant post. Everyone is willing to be patient and trust the process until it's actually tested. 

Exactly. And what would they have us do anyway? Sack the manager? With what money? This is another thing people don't seem to have fully grasped - we don't have the funds we used to. I think many people deep down assume that being in administration is like a prison sentence or a time out for a naughty child, i.e. once your punishment is up you're back to normal. We still owe millions to various bodies, so we're still broke.

[jimtastic56]

50 minutes ago, angieram said:

I think if I am 22, being played in  a system I don't think suits my skills (or reflects 12 years of my academy training) then yes, I'd rather have cake today than the promise of maybe cake tomorrow if I'm a good boy. Especially if I'm being offered my favourite, instead of having to make do with brandy snaps all season! 

I don't think anyone can criticise the commitment of any of our academy graduates after what they've been through in the last few years.

If any go, they do so with my very best wishes.

I have no problems with Paul Warne or brandy snaps , but players have got to be able to adapt to different systems. Knight would never go away with Ireland and say I can’t play that system. Who would buy a player that can only fit into one system? My point was- players won’t hang around just to play in front of bigger crowds.

[Jourdan]

Let’s see where we are by the end of December.

Writing a manager and a reshaped squad off after two games is bonkers.

We have had the worst start imaginable, but we have time to grow and improve.

This is the biggest test of Warne’s career and his reputation will live or die with what he does in the coming weeks and months to remedy the situation.

I remember leaving Plainmoor after Torquay away last season wondering where the season was headed. Weeks later, we were in the midst of a long unbeaten run and looking inspired. So there’s no reason to think there can’t be a turnaround.

This is a time for calm and for Warne to show his ability to pinpoint problems and make fixes to get the blend right.

If that means dropping one of Smith, Bird or Hourihane to insert an attacking player into the mix, OK. If that means dropping star signing Bradley to reunite Cashin and Forsyth at the back, so be it.

The concern for me is if we see the same XI and the same approach as we did v Wigan. I understand set ups have teething problems but we can’t really afford to write off games while the players settle into a system. It’s not even looked 70-80% of the way to being right, after all.

We have to show some bravery and adaptability.

[Caerphilly Ram]

59 minutes ago, angieram said:

I think if I am 22, being played in  a system I don't think suits my skills (or reflects 12 years of my academy training) then yes, I'd rather have cake today than the promise of maybe cake tomorrow if I'm a good boy. Especially if I'm being offered my favourite, instead of having to make do with brandy snaps all season! 

I don't think anyone can criticise the commitment of any of our academy graduates after what they've been through in the last few years.

If any go, they do so with my very best wishes.

Having grown up in Hull I can confirm via my experience of eating Brandy Snaps at Hull Fair that the experience could be tempting to Bird, there’s something special about buying a bag of those sticky sweet bad boys whilst neon lights and the risk of death swirl around you. 

 

(this isn’t a serious suggestion, but it is a genuine life experience)

[MickD]

19 hours ago, MackworthRamIsGod said:

Are we just going to forget we were God knows how many points clear within playoffs last season, with many rival fans tipping us for top 2, for us then to throw it away?

Would you prefer to wait until we are starring down a barrel (like many did)  before admitting something may be wrong?

starring? down a barrel

[Foreveram]

2 hours ago, RadioactiveWaste said:

The starting point is based on what the bookie thinks will happen (usually adjusted by a degree to suit the bookie, the bookie wants to make money not pretend to be clairvoyant) - the initial odds are to tempt people into putting on.

But the bookies odds are then changed by the amount being bet, not to reflect what the probabilities are but to cover off the risk to the bookie.

So they're related but also subtlety different things which is what Wolf was getting at.

 

 

 

But he said that the odds are SET by how much money is placed on them, which simply isn’t true, which was my point.

[jono]

5 minutes ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

Having grown up in Hull I can confirm via my experience of eating Brandy Snaps at Hull Fair that the experience could be tempting to Bird, there’s something special about buying a bag of those sticky sweet bad boys whilst neon lights and the risk of death swirl around you. 

 

(this isn’t a serious suggestion, but it is a genuine life experience)

My mum used to make brandy snaps and put brandy in the whipped cream too .. can’t help thinking social services would have wanted to say something now 🤪