The Bookies aren't always right

[cosmic]

27 minutes ago, thelovebelow said:

442 have us relegated. 

Just to put this into perspective, they had us finishing 4th last season…

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.fourfourtwo.com/amp/features/championship-table-prediction-2020-2021-season-preview-efl-promotion-play-offs
 

 

[Coneheadjohn]

We were 3/1 to be bottom for a while but we’re only 2/1 now.

[DCFC1388]

24 minutes ago, cosmic said:

Just to put this into perspective, they had us finishing 4th last season…

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.fourfourtwo.com/amp/features/championship-table-prediction-2020-2021-season-preview-efl-promotion-play-offs
 

 

So predicted we would come 4th & we finished 4th bottom....now they say we will finish bottom, clearly means we will finish top ?

[Yani P]

No way we are getting relegated..lay that price all day long pre season..

[Yani P]

Also interesting that Huddersfield are 2nd favourites to go down so opening game is obviously a relegation 6 pointer ?

[Ken Tram]

5 hours ago, Charlotte Ram said:

I see a great double.  Derby for promotion 16/1 doubled with Forest for relegation 12/1 that is worth putting a monkey on, close to a hundred grand back, or even a treble Derby for promotion with Forest and Boro relegated. would be over a million back

Or, better still. Bet on Forest and Boro to be promoted, and Derby to be relegated - and if that were to happen - be able to drown your sorrows with a massive accumulated payout!

[Ken Tram]

I'm any case ... bookmakers odds do not necessarily reflect what they predict will happen!

The odds reflect what they think will result in them making the most money!

....................

No-one supports Forest (!), so they have to increase the odds disproportionately to get anyone to place any money on Forest doing anything.

Derby has 300,006 supporters, according to the other thread. So, they have to cut odds to avoid bankruptcy*.

This must be correct, because we all know that Forest are more likely to be relegated than Derby!

* Of the bookmakers.

Edited August 3, 2021 by Ken Tram

[Lander]

With our fans fully behind the team, I’m absolutely confident we can get on a good run that will see us through this season to safety.

[YouRams]

22/1 for promotion anyhow, lump on lads and ladies Rams are going up. 

[RadioactiveWaste]

Bookies are seldom hugely wrong, but, bookies odds only really reflect what a large amount of people overall think will happen and put their money on happening. The thing bookies really are never wrong on is weighing up the bets for one outcome or the other so there's usually more money in the pot than they stand to have to pay out whatever the result is (I'm sure there is a term for it but I don't know it)

 

[LeedsCityRam]

1 hour ago, cosmic said:

Just to put this into perspective, they had us finishing 4th last season…

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.fourfourtwo.com/amp/features/championship-table-prediction-2020-2021-season-preview-efl-promotion-play-offs
 

 

In fairness, if you swap us & Barnsley thats  actually a really good prediction. They got the bottom 3 & the top 3 spot on (although not right order). Over-rating Forest was the only other rick.

As to the topic, pretty depressing to see but like others have said, those odds will change if we land a few of the trialists. A siege mentality, a good mix of youth/experience & a settled style of play might see us surprise a few ?

[24Charlie]

We are favourites for relegation because the bookies are laying off on the possible points deduction. We get a 12 point deduction and those odds look right but without a points deduction they just don't make sense.

If we were say 10-1 everyone would be on it and hoping for a points deduction to take effect at the end of August. It's too big a risk for the bookies as all we hear from the club is that they are working with the EFL on the submission of the accounts. Which just sounds like there's an issue.

 

 

[Rampage]

1 hour ago, Coneheadjohn said:

We were 3/1 to be bottom for a while but we’re only 2/1 now.

Woohoo.

[jimbo jones]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/championship-supercomputer-predicts-title-winners-24616164.amp
 

The “super computer” has us finishing a lofty 17th. Never doubt the super computer.

[RadioactiveWaste]

2 minutes ago, jimbo jones said:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/championship-supercomputer-predicts-title-winners-24616164.amp
 

The “super computer” has us finishing a lofty 17th. Never doubt the super computer.

"If football was meant to be played in computational simulations god would've invented footie manager" - Brian Clough (speaking from the other side)

[Ambitious]

2 hours ago, cosmic said:

Just to put this into perspective, they had us finishing 4th last season…

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.fourfourtwo.com/amp/features/championship-table-prediction-2020-2021-season-preview-efl-promotion-play-offs
 

 

They got the bottom three correct and the three promoted teams in the top 3 positions. Not a bad prediction considering. 

[DesertRam]

I've got us down for 15th -18th, we need 3 players to reach double figures, Beilik back soon, and Mengi

for at least 6 months. January could be massive  

 

[Sparkle]

Well I have just lumped on the handicapped league for the championship all bets are 18/1 and Derby county have a 26 point head start and only a 3 teams have slightly more points paying 4 places. In the George Burley second season I did the same and we blitzed the league - worth a try 

meanwhile 4/1 for Derby county to beat Huddersfield at home on Saturday - come on it won’t get much better than that!

[Ghost of Clough]

Infogol have us finishing 18th and Huddersfield bottom.

1. Fulham
2. Bournemouth
3. Sheff Utd
4. West Brom
5. Stoke
6. Boro
7. Blackburn
8. Swansea
9. Barnsley
10. Reading
11. Cardiff
12. Millwall
13. QPR
14. Forest
15. Luton
16. Hull
17. Preston
18. Derby
19. Bristol
20. Birmingham
21. Blackpool
22. Coventry
23. Peterborough
24. Huddersfield

That doesn't look too far off what I'd expect. Stoke and Blackburn much lower, QPR much higher. The rest will only be a couple places off where they've predicted.

IMO, bottom 3 will be between Huddersfield, Peterborough, Blackpool, Bristol and Hull

Huddersfield and Bristol in particular have a lot to turn around from the second half of last season. Bristol picked up 15 and Huddersfield 18 from their last 23 games. We picked up 25 for comparison. 

[Foreveram]

8 hours ago, Sparkle said:

Well I have just lumped on the handicapped league for the championship all bets are 18/1 and Derby county have a 26 point head start and only a 3 teams have slightly more points paying 4 places. In the George Burley second season I did the same and we blitzed the league - worth a try 

meanwhile 4/1 for Derby county to beat Huddersfield at home on Saturday - come on it won’t get much better than that!

I have had £10 on Derby to win on Saturday, hope that pays for Peterborough ticket