Promotion Rivals Watch

[Carnero]

1 minute ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Peterborough returning to form is largely down to the return of Poku. 1 win and 4 points in the 5 games he was out injured. 3 wins and 9 points in the 4 games he's been back. They've only lost 2 league games since Spetember the 2nd with Poku in the side.Let's hope he was rushed back and picks up another injury.

Bizarrely I think it helps a little that Posh are back in the automatic promotion race, given they play Bolton on the last day of the season. We may need them to be switched on for the last game this time unlike when they rolled over for Barnsley last season.

In a scenario where it's Bolton 2nd, with us then Posh & Barnsley within a point or 2 going into the last day we might need Posh to beat or draw with Bolton on the last day whilst we beat Carlisle to nick 2nd!

 

[Foreveram]

25 minutes ago, Carnero said:

Bizarrely I think it helps a little that Posh are back in the automatic promotion race, given they play Bolton on the last day of the season. We may need them to be switched on for the last game this time unlike when they rolled over for Barnsley last season.

In a scenario where it's Bolton 2nd, with us then Posh & Barnsley within a point or 2 going into the last day we might need Posh to beat or draw with Bolton on the last day whilst we beat Carlisle to nick 2nd!

 

[Tamworthram]

2 hours ago, Carnero said:

Bizarrely I think it helps a little that Posh are back in the automatic promotion race, given they play Bolton on the last day of the season. We may need them to be switched on for the last game this time unlike when they rolled over for Barnsley last season.

In a scenario where it's Bolton 2nd, with us then Posh & Barnsley within a point or 2 going into the last day we might need Posh to beat or draw with Bolton on the last day whilst we beat Carlisle to nick 2nd!

 

Presumably you meant to say Barnsley rolled over for them last season given Posh won 2:0 away.

In any event, I wouldn't bank on it. Didn't Posh switch off against Sheffield Wednesday in the play off second leg when they definitely had something to play for.😀

[ap04]

35 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

That's nice.  Although they still seem to have less points and a worse goal difference.  Who'd have thought it possible.  Bloody computers, can't trust em.

You'll find it's points and goals you can't trust mate

 

 

 

 

 

[Wolfie20]

We need a zzzzzzzzz emoji  😴

[McArthur Park]

1 hour ago, ap04 said:

You'll find it's points and goals you can't trust mate

 

 

 

 

 

🤯

[Tamworthram]

2 hours ago, ap04 said:

You'll find it's points and goals you can't trust mate

 

 

 

 

 

Two things I’ve learned today:

1) It seems we can’t “trust” the number of goals a team score/concedes or the number of points a team accumulates. Maybe final league tables should be determined by XG

2) if you produce enough fancy looking graphs you’ll probably impress someone (probably just yourself though) 😀

[TigerTedd]

21 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

You need to stop treating xG as gospel. Their main CF is a poor finisher, hence why he's scored less goals than his xG, and Peterborough's overall record being similar.

I like xG as a stat, but ultimately you’re spot on. If your goals scored are less than your xG, it tells you that your centre forward can’t finish the chances you’re creating. That’s why xG is a good stat, but it doesn’t mean your CF is suddenly going to turn into a good finisher overnight. If he’s a crap finisher now, he’ll probably continue to be a crap finisher until the end of the season. You can have Zidane creating all the chances in the world, but if connor salmon is your number 9, your xG and your goals for are going to be completely unbalanced. 

theo Robinson. I always thought he seemed a total donkey, but then he got a really good return of goals. I’d love to hear his xG to GF ratio. 

[ap04]

22 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

You need to stop treating xG as gospel. Their main CF is a poor finisher, hence why he's scored less goals than his xG, and Peterborough's overall record being similar.

Taking what you wrote at face value would mean that for instance Morecambe last year had way better finishers than Derby because they scored more than their xG.

 

1 hour ago, TigerTedd said:

I like xG as a stat, but ultimately you’re spot on. If your goals scored are less than your xG, it tells you that your centre forward can’t finish the chances you’re creating. That’s why xG is a good stat, but it doesn’t mean your CF is suddenly going to turn into a good finisher overnight. If he’s a crap finisher now, he’ll probably continue to be a crap finisher until the end of the season. You can have Zidane creating all the chances in the world, but if connor salmon is your number 9, your xG and your goals for are going to be completely unbalanced. 

From the horse's mouth (Statsbomb)

Given large enough sample sizes, it is possible to identify certain players who stand out for their finishing ability, but the large majority of players are close to average. In general terms, what differentiates good forwards isn't so much finishing chances at an above-average rate but generating shots from valuable locations.
 

[Ghost of Clough]

11 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Taking what you wrote at face value would mean that for instance Morecambe last year had way better finishers than Derby because they scored more than their xG.

Taking what I day at face value, Ricky-Jade Jones is a very poor finisher.

 

Almost half of Morecambe's goals last season came from Stockton and Weir, so I'm guessing the main reason for their high goals vs xG was down to them. 

9 of their 21 goals were scored from outside of the box. Weir was regarded as a very shooter from range within Brighton's academy, and he carried that form into last season. Stockton also scored a few long rangers, but I can't comment on if that was the norm for him or just due to a purple patch. However, you'll be familiar with long range strikes being worth low xG probabilities. Good shooters from range will naturally outperform xG. A high proportion of goals from distance, with a small sample pool (one of the lowest scorers in the lewgue) will also swing the balance.

A further 4 goals were from Stockton's head, which highlights them engineering chances specifically for one of their main strengths - again this will likely result in above average goal vs xG.

[Jimbo Ram]

20 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Not sure where this Barnsley winning is coming from.  I wanted Barnsley to get zero points . That's been my stance for a fortnight for reasons already listed.

Why? There was the maximum of 3 points available and both teams dropped 2 points, picking up only a point each, 2 points in total rather than the 3 available. Not rocket science.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

7 minutes ago, Jimbo Ram said:

Why? There was the maximum of 3 points available and both teams dropped 2 points, picking up only a point each, 2 points in total rather than the 3 available. Not rocket science.

I refer you to previous answers

[Crewton]

10 hours ago, ap04 said:

Taking what you wrote at face value would mean that for instance Morecambe last year had way better finishers than Derby because they scored more than their xG.

 

From the horse's mouth (Statsbomb)

Given large enough sample sizes, it is possible to identify certain players who stand out for their finishing ability, but the large majority of players are close to average. In general terms, what differentiates good forwards isn't so much finishing chances at an above-average rate but generating shots from valuable locations.
 

To paraphrase a chapter in Len Shackleton's autobiography:

"What the average Statistician knows about football:"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Crewton]

I saw this "Over-performing xG XI" selection in the Guardian. Seems quite an attacking line up, but the lack of a goalkeeper might be a hindrance:

[Ewe Ram]

Is there an emoji for ‘goes right over my head’?

[Comrade 86]

Holy moly. I actually grasp that statistical analysis of sports has its uses, but f*** am I bored of the pointless to and fro between those who do and don't, especially you @ap04 Does everything you post have to be A) xG related and B) patronising AF? For pity's sake, just give it a rest, why don't you! 

[G STAR RAM]

3 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

Holy moly. I actually grasp that statistical analysis of sports has its uses, but f*** am I bored of the pointless to and fro between those who do and don't, especially you @ap04 Does everything you post have to be A) xG related and B) patronising AF? For pity's sake, just give it a rest, why don't you! 

That's a bit harsh.

He does mention his Lucky Database too.

[Crewton]

When that Barnsley fan came on here and said his team were "going through the gears" I didn't realise one of them would be reverse.

 

[Carl Sagan]

What a great Saturday:

• Blackpool 0 Portsmouth 0
• Exeter 2 Bolton 2
• Bristol Rovers 0 RAMS 3
• Barnsley 1 Lincoln 5
• Burton 1 Peterborough 3

With nine games to go, we have moved into our best league position of the season - for the very first time we are second on points per game. Objectively second.

There are going to be a fair few twists and turns between now and the end, but I'd rather be in our position than the three below us. Plus our excellent goal difference had another boost. Come on you Rams!

[TigerTedd]

 

9 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

What a great Saturday:

• Blackpool 0 Portsmouth 0
• Exeter 2 Bolton 2
• Bristol Rovers 0 RAMS 3
• Barnsley 1 Lincoln 5
• Burton 1 Peterborough 3

With nine games to go, we have moved into our best league position of the season - for the very first time we are second on points per game. Objectively second.

There are going to be a fair few twists and turns between now and the end, but I'd rather be in our position than the three below us. Plus our excellent goal difference had another boost. Come on you Rams!

Imagine being a Barnsley fan though. Wait, no, I don’t have to imagine, I’m a Derby fan, that kind of heartache is pretty normal. One day you’re top of the world, the next you’re smashed 5-1 by Lincoln. Standard.