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Promotion Rivals Watch


sage

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I think if we pick maximum points from the next two home games we’ll be clear favourites for second spot.

We’ll have 10 games remaining, five at home and five away.

And we’ll have Bolton at home.

Reading and Blackpool at home won’t be easy. Nor will Pompey, Bristol Rovers and Wycombe away.

But of those 10 games, four are easy in Northampton, Cambridge, Carlisle and Leyton Orient. 

Win the next two plus the four easy and that is the six of eight wins we probably need for promotion.

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15 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

I think if we pick maximum points from the next two home games we’ll be clear favourites for second spot.

We’ll have 10 games remaining, five at home and five away.

And we’ll have Bolton at home.

Reading and Blackpool at home won’t be easy. Nor will Pompey, Bristol Rovers and Wycombe away.

But of those 10 games, four are easy in Northampton, Cambridge, Carlisle and Leyton Orient. 

Win the next two plus the four easy and that is the six of eight wins we probably need for promotion.

Leyton Orient are top of the form table over the last 10 games.

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8 hours ago, Grimbeard said:

EEEK!

I want you to go and find a nice, quiet room. Sit yourself down, and have a long, hard think about what you've done.

 

Yes, I don't think either Orient at home or Northampton away will be easy, but 4 other home games are against teams in the bottom six of the Away table (including the next 2) so if the players can't go into those with confidence, perhaps we need the services of a hypnotist?

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I've had a look at the fixtures for every team and it definitely seems that we have the best run-in on paper. Bolton have four of the top six to play away in their remaining seven away games. They're a good side, but that's a tough ask of any team - especially a team conceding so many goals of late. Barnsley have a fairly steady run-in too, so may actually be the ones to watch, even if their games are often uninspiring wins by the odd-goal. 

Honestly, as a betting man, I would be looking at that thinking it will be Derby who have the easiest opportunity to pick up points. The next four games are crucial - three home games and away at a poor side. If we come through unscathed then we could be sitting in a very good position. 

Portsmouth - 
Home: Oxford, Burton, Barnsley, Derby, Shrewsbury, Wigan. Away: Blackpool, Peterborough, Wycombe, Bolton, Lincoln. 

Derby - 
Home: Charlton, Port Vale, Reading, Bolton, Blackpool, Leyton Orient, Carlisle. Away: Bristol Rovers, Northampton, Portsmouth, Wycombe, Cambridge. 

Bolton - 
Home: Cambridge, Oxford, Shrewsbury, Reading, Portsmouth, Port Vale. Away: Wigan, Barnsley, Exeter, Derby, Stevenage, Bristol Rovers, Peterborough. 

Barnsley - 
Home: Bolton, Lincoln, Cheltenham, Cambridge, Reading, Northampton. Away: Wycombe, Carlisle, Portsmouth, Burton, Charlton, Stevenage, Blackpool. 

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Well, after back-to-back defeats we've fallen to fourth place in the table that properly reflects points over the season:image.thumb.png.59af565547f911b7a8768dc3aef177d4.png

It's been a big dropoff by us and Bolton with the 95 point target for automatics now looking a significant overestimate. Barnsley will fancy their chances and if poor form continues then Peterborough can come back into the mix.

All is not lost, but we need to put a run of results together quickly. If my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle, but what a missed opportunity this has been. We could have been well clear with Portsmouth...

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On 29/02/2024 at 01:05, Carl Sagan said:

Well, after back-to-back defeats we've fallen to fourth place in the table that properly reflects points over the season:image.thumb.png.59af565547f911b7a8768dc3aef177d4.png

It's been a big dropoff by us and Bolton with the 95 point target for automatics now looking a significant overestimate. Barnsley will fancy their chances and if poor form continues then Peterborough can come back into the mix.

All is not lost, but we need to put a run of results together quickly. If my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle, but what a missed opportunity this has been. We could have been well clear with Portsmouth...

After wins for all the top 5 on Saturday, we remain 4th in this "effective" table, everyone on 3 points more from a game more. However, Tuesday night sees Barnsley at home to Bolton meaning one or both of them will drop points and, regardless of the result we shall move up into effective 3rd place. My preference would be for the draw. Peterborough are also playing at home to Northampton. It would be great if they drop points so remain at arms length.

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1 hour ago, Carl Sagan said:

After wins for all the top 5 on Saturday, we remain 4th in this "effective" table, everyone on 3 points more from a game more. However, Tuesday night sees Barnsley at home to Bolton meaning one or both of them will drop points and, regardless of the result we shall move up into effective 3rd place. My preference would be for the draw. Peterborough are also playing at home to Northampton. It would be great if they drop points so remain at arms length.

We improved our goals difference more than any of the others at least. Back to having the best goal difference in the league. That could make a difference by the end. 

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2 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

After wins for all the top 5 on Saturday, we remain 4th in this "effective" table, everyone on 3 points more from a game more. However, Tuesday night sees Barnsley at home to Bolton meaning one or both of them will drop points and, regardless of the result we shall move up into effective 3rd place. My preference would be for the draw. Peterborough are also playing at home to Northampton. It would be great if they drop points so remain at arms length.

Wouldn't the best outcome be Barnsley win, with them then losing their other game in hand? Obviously that's in fantasy land. The 2nd best result would be a Bolton win, take them 3 points ahead of us but as we still need to play them then we can still overtake them, the draw would be the worst result as we would have to try and overtake both of them (if Barnsley win their game in hand).

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2 hours ago, rynny said:

Wouldn't the best outcome be Barnsley win, with them then losing their other game in hand? Obviously that's in fantasy land. The 2nd best result would be a Bolton win, take them 3 points ahead of us but as we still need to play them then we can still overtake them, the draw would be the worst result as we would have to try and overtake both of them (if Barnsley win their game in hand).

I disagree because I think the fewest points our rivals have, the better. A draw means only 2 pts going against us instead of 3. Our current ppg is 1.92, behind Barnsley on 1.94 and then Bolton on 1.97. The different scenarios are:

  • Barnsley win sees them on 1.97 while Bolton join us on 1.92, but fall behind on goal difference.
  • Bolton win sees them on 2.00 while Barnsley fall back to 1.89.
  • Draw and Bolton are on 1.94 and Barnsley 1.91.

So a draw puts us objectively 3rd, and only 0.02 ppg behind Bolton in second.

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51 minutes ago, sage said:

No sign of the mass brawl at Bolton with 3 sent off on each team 

Bolton have just lost Dacres-Cogley to injury though, he’s played 35 games as part of their defence in the league this season so depending on how severe the injury it could weaken them…. Trying desperately to find silver linings 

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