Match Thread: vs Bolton (A)

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

1 minute ago, Tyler Durden said:

Yes agreed. Basically Wildsmith gave the ref the opportunity to make a poor decision.

No he didn't, he took the ball on his chest in direct view of a lino. That was the officials poor decision.

There's no time to think about placement of hands if your making three saves in about 6 seconds, due to a defender who panics instead of putting his size 12's through the ball.  

[Tyler Durden]

1 minute ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

No he didn't, he took the ball on his chest in direct view of a lino. That was the officials poor decision.

There's no time to think about placement of hands if your making three saves in about 6 seconds, due to a defender who panics instead of putting his size 12's through the ball.  

We'll never know what the ref actually saw or didn't see unless he makes some miraculous death bed confession.

So ultimately it's all speculation and opinion but I guess it's a football forum so that's what it's here for. 

[ram59]

1 hour ago, Tyler Durden said:

Yes agreed. Basically Wildsmith gave the ref the opportunity to make a poor decision.

Wildsmith's natural goalie instincts kicked in and he just spread himself, to block the shot and not fully aware of his exact position in relation to the penalty area. It was only luck that the shot didn't actually hit him on the arm. Speaking from experience, when I play in goal in walking football, I spread myself as much a possible to block close range shots and I went through a spell of getting hit full in the face, not by choice, you just spread yourself.

I seem to remember our defenders last season, giving referees the opportunity to make a poor decision, which they invariably did.

[DRBee]

5 hours ago, angieram said:

 

To be fair the ref can't really see and linos often don't flag without checking first. Given we don't know what communications took place between the officials the accusation of'cheat' can't be justified no matter what we might think of the red card decision.

[DRBee]

2 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

Yes agreed. Basically Wildsmith gave the ref the opportunity to make a poor decision.

Don't get this stance   - its pompous and unfair to players. On this basis players give the ref hundreds of opportunities each game to  make a poor decision  and players can't be thinking all the time "I mustn't give the ref an opportunity to make a poor decision". That's not how players think when they are playing, they are focussing on other things. Wildsmith won't have been thinking "I mustn't come out of my area cos the ref might make a poor decision " , he was having to think quickly how to deal with a bad error by his defender. In any case he wasn't going for the ball with his hands so what exactly did he do wrong ( in the possible hand ball part of the incident).

[Tyler Durden]

12 minutes ago, DRBee said:

Don't get this stance   - its pompous and unfair to players. On this basis players give the ref hundreds of opportunities each game to  make a poor decision  and players can't be thinking all the time "I mustn't give the ref an opportunity to make a poor decision". That's not how players think when they are playing, they are focussing on other things. Wildsmith won't have been thinking "I mustn't come out of my area cos the ref might make a poor decision " , he was having to think quickly how to deal with a bad error by his defender. In any case he wasn't going for the ball with his hands so what exactly did he do wrong ( in the possible hand ball part of the incident).

Didn't get beyond the first line of your reply.

Am sure the rest was very interesting though 

[ram59]

2 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

Yes agreed. Basically Wildsmith gave the ref the opportunity to make a poor decision.

Also 2 of their players, one with a handball and one wrestling Bradley to the ground whilst not looking at the ball, gave the ref the much easier opportunity to make a good decision.

[jimtastic56]

2 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

Yes agreed. Basically Wildsmith gave the ref the opportunity to make a poor decision.

Once Wildsmith comes out of his box - he becomes an “Outfield “ player . Should he wave his arms about or like a lot of top defenders , put them behind his back? We all still agree the ref made a mistake.

[kevinhectoring]

7 hours ago, angieram said:

 

It’s a really daft piece of twittering by Richard Johnson. Wildsmith is sideways on to the ref - precisely the angle that makes it most difficult to know whether it hit his chest of his hand.   

[uttoxram75]

4 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

We'll never know what the ref actually saw or didn't see unless he makes some miraculous death bed confession.

So ultimately it's all speculation and opinion but I guess it's a football forum so that's what it's here for. 

We know for definite that the ref did not see Wildsmith handle the ball. He may have thought he'd handled it but he certainly didnt see it.

[kevinhectoring]

13 hours ago, WestKentRam said:

No, never noticed this. You'll have to give me time as I've only been supporting Derby since the glory days of the 1970s, but I'm sure we'll get a decision going our way sooner or later.

In my 20/21 spreadsheet I had recorded that we gained 2 points on 16/2/21 as the ref incorrectly ruled out a goal for Wycombe for offside when it wasn't. We still were down 8-9 points by the end of the season though with other decisions that went against us.

We've had two red cards overturned on appeal in the last year. Wildsmith this week, and Cashin in Nov 22. My memory for games is horrendous, but I can't recall other clubs having had successful red card appeals in games involving us recently. Palace had an unsuccessful appeal for a red given to Milivojevic when they lost against us in the FA Cup in Jan 20.

 

If you really want to get into this you need a mine of evidence over a long period.  Fans across the world suffer confirmation bias which leads to this sort of paranoia but we have a particularly acute case, probably because “the EFl are out to get us” (not that the EFL have much to do with it)

You say: “We've had two red cards overturned on appeal in the last year. “ Big deal. In the last 10 years? How many did we fail to get overturned? And how does it really compare to other clubs (horrendous memories aside)?
 

The best way to challenge this paranoid state of mind is to ask yourself: “why, oh why would refs have it in for us? “   What is your theory ? Hopefully it doesn’t involve a conspiracy 

[IlsonDerby]

On 05/09/2023 at 23:14, WestKentRam said:

Hmmm... interesting...

I'm not quite sad enough to analyse every game in the league in this way, but I agree it would give a more accurate picture of the overall standings if such contentious decisions could be included for all clubs.

The reason for doing it, apart from giving me something to rant about, is that the maxim that it all evens itself out by the end of the season appears to be nonsense if you support Derby and it does my head in when this is trotted out.

The last time I did it for a full season was 20/21 when we were 8-9 points worse off due to decisions such as we had against Bolton. After that, it just became a bit depressing, but after last season when the same feeling occurred, I thought I'd do it for a complete season once again now.

It's just a bit of fun as I was intrigued by Brentford having their Table of Justice, that I recall was one of the reasons Thomas Frank wasn't sacked after his initial terrible run when he started managing them, as their stats indicated they should be higher up the table than they actually were.

Was it the Bolton or the Posh game where Elder went lunging in with both feet? (Posh I’m sure). Ref gave him a yellow but when I saw the tackle and heard the refs whistle I was adamant a red was coming. Obviously not as clear as this red for Wildsmith but it can be easy to miss those ‘on the edge’ decisions when trying to look at the balance of decisions. 

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, IlsonDerby said:

Was it the Bolton or the Posh game where Elder went lunging in with both feet? (Posh I’m sure). Ref gave him a yellow but when I saw the tackle and heard the refs whistle I was adamant a red was coming. Obviously not as clear as this red for Wildsmith but it can be easy to miss those ‘on the edge’ decisions when trying to look at the balance of decisions. 

I think it was Bolton. Agreed - it looked a bad tackle (I’d forgotten about it until now) and at that point I assumed the ref wasn’t going to give a card for anything he saw.

And I was right, because then he sent one of our players off for something he didn’t see.

[Guest]

9 hours ago, DRBee said:

Don't get this stance   - its pompous and unfair to players. On this basis players give the ref hundreds of opportunities each game to  make a poor decision  and players can't be thinking all the time "I mustn't give the ref an opportunity to make a poor decision". That's not how players think when they are playing, they are focussing on other things. Wildsmith won't have been thinking "I mustn't come out of my area cos the ref might make a poor decision " , he was having to think quickly how to deal with a bad error by his defender. In any case he wasn't going for the ball with his hands so what exactly did he do wrong ( in the possible hand ball part of the incident).

You’re right of course but a better example and reframing would be Smith's mistake for the penalty.

Personally I don’t think it was a penalty - the Bolton player bought it and no checking technology was available to reverse the decision- but none of it would have been possible without Smith’s rash challenge. It’s not that Smith should think “Hmm, if I make a challenge here, I give the ref a chance to make a poor decision”, it’s that he should think (even in a high speed high intensity moment) “not a good idea to lunge in right on the edge of the penalty area given the likely behaviour of anyone being challenged while moving at pace and the low probability of them scoring from this position if I don’t make a challenge” with the context firmly implanted in his mind that we don’t have VAR or good refs at this level so he’s unlikely to get away with a mistake like that!

Edited September 7, 2023 by jameso

[duncanjwitham]

1 hour ago, jameso said:

You’re right of course but a better example and reframing would be Smith's mistake for the penalty.

Personally I don’t think it was a penalty - the Bolton player bought it and no checking technology was available to reverse the decision- but none of it would have been possible without Smith’s rash challenge. It’s not that Smith should think “Hmm, if I make a challenge here, I give the ref a chance to make a poor decision”, it’s that he should think (even in a high speed high intensity moment) “not a good idea to lunge in right on the edge of the penalty area given the likely behaviour of anyone being challenged while moving at pace and the low probability of them scoring from this position if I don’t make a challenge” with the context firmly implanted in his mind that we don’t have VAR or good refs at this level so he’s unlikely to get away with a mistake like that!

And even beyond the individual decision making by players/referees, the way we set up results in us getting counter-attacked a lot (we get it forwards quickly, lose it, they break etc).  And those are the kinds of situations that result in lots of penalties (and red cards) - players chasing back, players having to make last-ditch tackles, players dealing with players running at them etc.  And the more chances you give players and referees to screw up, the more likely they are to actually screw one up. 

It probably does result in those type of situations for us too, where we get to break back on them, although we don't always seem to be getting those decisions at the moment. 

[kevinhectoring]

12 hours ago, ram59 said:

when I play in goal in walking football, I spread myself as much a possible to block close range shots and I went through a spell of getting hit full in the face, not by choice, you just spread yourself.

You nicked this from a Monty python sketch

[WestKentRam]

13 hours ago, kevinhectoring said:

If you really want to get into this you need a mine of evidence over a long period.  Fans across the world suffer confirmation bias which leads to this sort of paranoia but we have a particularly acute case, probably because “the EFl are out to get us” (not that the EFL have much to do with it)

You say: “We've had two red cards overturned on appeal in the last year. “ Big deal. In the last 10 years? How many did we fail to get overturned? And how does it really compare to other clubs (horrendous memories aside)?
 

The best way to challenge this paranoid state of mind is to ask yourself: “why, oh why would refs have it in for us? “   What is your theory ? Hopefully it doesn’t involve a conspiracy 

The reason I keep the spreadsheet is for my own amusement.  And yes, probably foolishly, I tell people about it, such as Derby and non-Derby supporting friends and on this forum, in situations such as post the Bolton game, and can take and possibly enjoy the ridicule that sometimes ensues.

I would love to see a massive analysis of the whole season with a table after independently verified decisions (however that would be achieved) have been included, but I'm certainly in no position to do this! 

I accept that of course I am biased, and a Derby supporter keeping a list of key decisions that go for and against us each game, as they see it, carries no statistical weight. Still, at the end of the season when we have missed a vital league place by one point, I can look back and feel comfortable in my mind that maybe there were reasons for this other than those caused by the owner, manager, coaching staff, players, fans, EFL, the burden of history, or some other random factor that snatched certain glory from us.

The good thing about watching football is there is absolutely no requirement to be rational about it, or there to be only one view that must be taken on any subject.

'The EFL is out to get us'... Without opening that can of worms, it could be argued that the EFL were out to get us. Referees are employed indirectly by the EFL via the PGMOL, so it's not inconceivable that they may have unconscious bias in the decisions they make in order to keep the EFL happy, given the reviews of their performance and allocation of games that occur.

I am certainly not saying referees have made their mind up before a game to give certain decisions a certain way, but they are prone to bias as we all are, for a multitude of reasons. Home team bias has been documented in the giving of cards, calling of fouls and penalty decisions, and the addition of time at the end of a match.

Referees vary between themselves in the degree of home team bias, so perhaps not a complete surprise that we got key decisions given against us by the same referee when we played away at Plymouth last season and Bolton last weekend. Maybe he is more prone to home team bias, that is known to vary between referees, than other refs? Who knows? I've nothing against him and certainly wouldn't do his job. Doesn't stop me scratching my chin and wondering why decisions appeared to go against us on Saturday though.

Referees also analyse clubs and players in the lead up to a match. Perhaps not the best idea if they want to exclude bias.

Another form of bias that could be relevant to Derby is detailed in this article https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/mar/21/inside-world-premier-league-football-referees-pgmol-howard-webb-andre-marriner-darren-england

The ref admitted in the interview that he was so concerned about not being influenced by the home team in a CL match that he almost consciously gave decisions the other way, to the detriment of the team that he said should have had at least one penalty of the four good penalty shouts. Perhaps with Derby refs are trying too hard to seem that they aren't influenced by the bigger club, that they end up being influenced against us.

Yes, the red card stat is a small sample and time period, but all I can say is it could be given as some evidence that key game changing decisions have gone against us on the field in the recent past, as we've had two red cards overturned in the last year, but no club has done the same while playing against us for many years, as far as I am aware. Ok, Bradley Johnson stayed on the field in 2018 after the 'bite' incident in the game v Stoke, that we lost anyway. However a four game ban after this perhaps evened it out, but it does show that of course key decisions can be missed in our short term favour during a game, albeit 5 years ago! I'm sure there must be other examples like this...

 

 

 

[WestKentRam]

8 hours ago, IlsonDerby said:

Was it the Bolton or the Posh game where Elder went lunging in with both feet? (Posh I’m sure). Ref gave him a yellow but when I saw the tackle and heard the refs whistle I was adamant a red was coming. Obviously not as clear as this red for Wildsmith but it can be easy to miss those ‘on the edge’ decisions when trying to look at the balance of decisions. 

Can't recall this. Must have been wearing my rose tinted specs at the time.

Have had a look online and at the match reports for Peterborough and Bolton but can't see any reference to it so I'm leaving it off my spreadsheet!

[DavesaRam]

21 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

Bit strong calling the referee a cheat, incompetent yes, but with a preordained plan to purposely give decisions against us?

Well after Saturday and the Plymouth match last season he’s got form, because all his bad decisions are inexplicable. And have cost is 6 points, with the Plymouth result knocking us out of the play-offs.

[sage]

6 minutes ago, DavesaRam said:

Well after Saturday and the Plymouth match last season he’s got form, because all his bad decisions are inexplicable. And have cost is 6 points, with the Plymouth result knocking us out of the play-offs.

On the plus side those 3 points may help with Warne leaving.

Disclaimer: The content of that joke is not necessarily my opinion and is not intended to initate a tedious conversation about agenda or fickleness