The competition for the 23/24 season

[Kernow]

Just to make things clear very early, this isn't a post to say we're going to "piss the league" or win it easily, but looking at the sides we will be facing this coming season, it looks like the league is a lot lower in quality than usual. There's obviously still two unknown spots, but I think if we can get the recruitment right, and the kind of players that Warne wants, we really shouldn't be aiming for anything below the top 2.

The three relegated sides are very poor, I don't really see an awful lot of threat from any of them. Wigan are already on -4 and will probably have the suspended deduction applied too with the way they're going. Reading are just Reading, and Blackpool might be there or thereabouts but are hardly a frightening proposition.

I'm not exactly sure what our odds were by the first game of last season, but I think we were something like 4th or 5th favourites? We're currently the most likely with Sky Bet to win the league at 6/1 and they reckon that Posh and Bolton will be our nearest challengers, which is probably about right. Whoever loses out of Barnsley and Wednesday will also be strong next season, although I'd give us a much better chance if Wednesday did win the final.

Other than that, you look at the teams coming up and the teams who were also in the top half and I really didn't see much in Portsmouth, Charlton, Wycombe etc. to indicate that they're preparing themselves for a real challenge next year.

It may of course all change in the next couple of months, we might be overly confident of a title winning season, breaking the points record, or we might struggle to get the players we need and hope to make the top 6.

I think we're now in a position where we can put the troubles of our financial issues and administration behind us. We can recruit players with a bigger financial pull, better facilities, better fanbase and better history than pretty much every other club, and have a manager who will know what kind of characters can get out of this division. It's not guaranteed success, but I can't see there being much better an opportunity than this year. Last year showed me that there is a real divide between the better sides and the poor sides in this league. I think the division will get bigger, there's just fewer better sides than there were last season.

[CBRammette]

You say it isnt but it reads as if it is. These sort of threads can haunt the OP just ask @David 😉

[Van der MoodHoover]

Let us never forget that our team is never far from a rank performance.

Fleetwood, Lincoln, Posh all beat us comfortably.

Warne has to up his game. It's not just about the recruitment.

[Tamworthram]

5 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Let us never forget that our team is never far from a rank performance.

Fleetwood, Lincoln, Posh all beat us comfortably.

Warne has to up his game. It's not just about the recruitment.

I’m not sure I agree that Posh beat us comfortably. It was your archetypal game of two halves. As I remember it, we were dominant in the first half but failed to capitalise. 

[Kernow]

36 minutes ago, CBRammette said:

You say it isnt but it reads as if it is. These sort of threads can haunt the OP just ask @David 😉

I think saying it's a good opportunity with the quality of teams left in this division this year, coinciding with the fact that for the first time in about 4 years a manager of ours has an actual chance to focus recruitment on what we need, rather than whatever we can get, is a little different!

[Millenniumram]

Hard to tell until we’ve seen the recruitment. I still hold concerns we’re going to struggle to persuade good players to play for Warne. 

If we do recruit well though, then there’s no excuses. There werent last season either. Warne must deliver.

[maydrakin]

In fairness, our squad isn’t exactly looking wonderful right now.

We have a small group of players under contract, a number of which aren’t exactly perfect for the system the manager wishes to play.

We need a fair few players, all of which need to be hits, which is not guaranteed.

There’s a base to build on, but we need a very good transfer window.

[Sparkle]

If we continue to miss chances and let in one opponents chance and the officials continue their harshness towards us we will finish 7th otherwise we win the league 👍

[Rich3478]

I watched the play offs and really thought we’re better than all four of these sides.

even wednesday winning 5-1 weren’t impressive. Just keep smashing it in the box over and over.

Peterborough had one touch in opponents half on over an hour.

Bolton and Barnsley just look average football teams.

hopefully Wednesday go up, really think we should be top two next year. Think the bottom half of this league is awful, Ipswich and Plymouth good sides. 
 

no excuses next season, warne has a full window, time on his side, no dead wood around the club. Fingers crossed. Still find it amazing we didn’t make top six from where we were in feb. Let’s look forward to next year though.

 

 

 

[Kernow]

5 minutes ago, maydrakin said:

In fairness, our squad isn’t exactly looking wonderful right now.

We have a small group of players under contract, a number of which aren’t exactly perfect for the system the manager wishes to play.

We need a fair few players, all of which need to be hits, which is not guaranteed.

There’s a base to build on, but we need a very good transfer window.

I was surprised by the odds because of that to be fair. We're 6/1 to win the league, I guess that's based on what we're expected to add so things can easily change.

[BramcoteRam84]

It’s all caveated on who we keep and bring in, but the only 2 clubs capable of coming from the pack to challenge are Pompey and Charlton but would fancy us to finish above both. Wigan are in disarray, Blackpool may also struggle and who knows what Reading are going to be like. We’re pretty certain of top 6 and think we will have a good shot at top 2

[mozza]

Nowt like setting yourselves up for a fall..

[kevinhectoring]

4 hours ago, Kernow said:

we really shouldn't be aiming for anything below the top 2.

Well Clowes has told us it’s a 5 year plan to be promoted. 4 years left. I’d guess Warne will repeat his statement that anything but top 6 is failure - the only question is whether Owen will be permitted to ask him. Top 2 is a challenging target. That’s why missing top 6 this year was such a disappointment 

[Ambitious]

The expectation for any side is to not finish below any team with a smaller budget, because if you do then you have to ask yourself the question how a team with fewer resources were able to out perform you. 

We’re not sure, exactly, what that looks like but I’d be surprised if we aren’t top 3 in terms of budget next year - therefore that’s got to be the target. 

[ilkleyram]

2 hours ago, kevinhectoring said:

Well Clowes has told us it’s a 5 year plan to be promoted. 4 years left. I’d guess Warne will repeat his statement that anything but top 6 is failure - the only question is whether Owen will be permitted to ask him. Top 2 is a challenging target. That’s why missing top 6 this year was such a disappointment 

I don’t think Clowes has said exactly that. He said that he wanted us to be established in the Championship in 5 years, which is subtly different. To be established imo means that we have to be in at least our second championship season in (now) 4 years time.  Clowes opinion may not be the same as mine.

That does mean (if you take my definition) that we don’t have to be promoted this season but would have to be promoted by the end of 24/25 to meet that goal.

We fans may still have to be patient. Given the number of new players we’ll probably need it could take more than one window. It’ll almost certainly mean that we might not get a fast start to the season. I’m old enough to remember that there were more than a few mutterings about Brian after his first full season; I can certainly remember muttering about Jim until the team clicked 15 games in - and neither of them had to deal with transfer windows or a club coming out of considerable financial restraint. Performance isn’t always linear season on season. 

 

[jono]

At this point I am reasonably happy. A season coming along where we are likely to be competitive, new recruits will come in, our finishing simply has to improve. Warne isn’t a God, but he knows what he’s at and at least tries to answer questions and isn’t hide bound. I think players will want to come to Derby. Other than Ipswich I didn’t see any team that stood out last season. I also think everyone else will be under some degree of financial pressure. No one is buying this league. All to play for, lots of optimism. Need some experienced heads with some fuel in the tank. 

[IlsonDerby]

9 hours ago, kevinhectoring said:

Well Clowes has told us it’s a 5 year plan to be promoted. 4 years left. I’d guess Warne will repeat his statement that anything but top 6 is failure - the only question is whether Owen will be permitted to ask him. Top 2 is a challenging target. That’s why missing top 6 this year was such a disappointment 

Established in the championship I think means top half pushing for top 6. 
 

maybe Clowes means something different but I think he’d be disappointed if we don’t get closer to promotion next season. 

[kevinhectoring]

6 hours ago, ilkleyram said:

I don’t think Clowes has said exactly that. He said that he wanted us to be established in the Championship in 5 years, which is subtly different. To be established imo means that we have to be in at least our second championship season in (now) 4 years time.  Clowes opinion may not be the same as mine.

That does mean (if you take my definition) that we don’t have to be promoted this season but would have to be promoted by the end of 24/25 to meet that goal.

We fans may still have to be patient. Given the number of new players we’ll probably need it could take more than one window. It’ll almost certainly mean that we might not get a fast start to the season. I’m old enough to remember that there were more than a few mutterings about Brian after his first full season; I can certainly remember muttering about Jim until the team clicked 15 games in - and neither of them had to deal with transfer windows or a club coming out of considerable financial restraint. Performance isn’t always linear season on season. 

 

I’m impatient, sorry. I’ve now been to Fleetwood - it wasn’t on my bucket list - and the novelty has worn off. And I have no desire to go to Stevenage because tho I have no idea what style of football they play I think I’ll find it even more tiresome than driving on the A1. 
 

I can’t remember exactly what words were used, but I wonder whether Clowes’ squidgy statement was off the cuff or premeditated. I’d say it’s purely an exercise in managing the expectations of the fan base, and it enables us to fail to get promotion soon and not regard it as what it is: failure. We should not be in this division and going to quaint grounds to sit in crickety stands to watch indifferent footie on a bad pitch in a cold wind loses its appeal quite quickly. MORE TO THE POINT, if we fail to get promotion soon, we risk being seen as a div 1 club by all and sundry, and we ourselves risk falling into that state of mind, and it is a state of mind that will keep us there. We lose our best players (bye bye Jason, Eiran) and we find it harder and harder to recruit anything but clodhoppers.

(It’s particularly irritating at the same time to see our noisy neighbours cling on in the PL - there is a prospect they may be there as long as we could be in div 1)

So putting aside whether Warne was the right choice - I think he’s just about OK, no more - imo the length of his contract was bat$hit crazy. 
 

So yes, Mr Clowes’ statement can be interpreted in different ways - that was his intention. But I wish he’d settled on a manager who would take a 3 year appointment and had said, in words of one syllable: our goal is to be back up in three (3) years

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by kevinhectoring

[maydrakin]

1 hour ago, kevinhectoring said:

It’s particularly irritating at the same time to see our noisy neighbours cling on in the PL - there is a prospect they may be there as long as we could be in div 1)

So, promotion next season it is! 😉

[jimtastic56]

2 hours ago, maydrakin said:

So, promotion next season it is! 😉

It’s been a very poor quality Championship division this season , and 3 of them going up with no money and likely to come straight back down with owners helping themselves. But three decent size clubs coming down from the Prem it will be a much better Championship.It’s hard to know how we will go on until we see some recruitment. But League one looks to be a weaker league 23/24.