Crewton Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 On 07/03/2022 at 16:35, Indy said: Three points for Forest could get them in the playoff spots with a couple of other results going the right way. They’ve got everything to play for. ... which means, obviously, that they'll bottle it. They always do. jimtastic56, Reggie Greenwood and Indy 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodley Ram Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 On 02/03/2022 at 07:14, BramcoteRam84 said: It’s still possible but it’s going to require around 2 points per game to have any chance. We might need Reading to do us some favours. Personally I think we will need 42 points which means we need to win 7 out of the last 11 games and we’re going to need to start winning away. Wins: Barnsley (H), Coventry (H), Preston (H), Swansea (A), Bristol City (H), Blackpool (A), Cardiff (H) Defeats: Bournemouth (A), Blackburn (A), Fulham (H), QPR (A) If we need more than 42 points then we’re going to need something from these 4 matches. The players aren’t giving up so I still believe but it’s looking very very difficult now. lots of variables, why don't we ask steve Gibson for this thoughts, he has a way of understanding variables and coming up with the exact answer strawhillram and BramcoteRam84 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rambam Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 We need the same number of points as the third bottom team. Our goal difference would keep us up. Draws are of little use now. Go for the win. You win some you lose some. jimtastic56, strawhillram, Rammy03 and 1 other 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimtastic56 Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 On 09/03/2022 at 10:10, Rambam said: We need the same number of points as the third bottom team. Our goal difference would keep us up. Draws are of little use now. Go for the win. You win some you lose some. Six of our 9 games are against teams with a chance of the play-offs. I don’t think they will want draws either.That will make for some very exiting games to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 On 09/03/2022 at 06:10, Rambam said: We need the same number of points as the third bottom team. Our goal difference would keep us up. Draws are of little use now. Go for the win. You win some you lose some. Wouldn't that just make us 3rd bottom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mucker1884 Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Yani P said: Wouldn't that just make us 3rd bottom? No. It would make us joint 3rd bottom on points, but 4th bottom (avoid relegation) on goal difference. Yani P 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Durden Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 2 hours ago, jimtastic56 said: Six of our 9 games are against teams with a chance of the play-offs. I don’t think they will want draws either.That will make for some very exiting games to watch. Seeing as we've only scored 1 goal away from home in the last 5 something needs to change radically. I'd settle for a cricket score as long as we finished with one more goal than the opposition jimtastic56 and Crewton 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plymouthram Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 I'm looking at current form of the bottom 4 and their overall form throughout the season so far. Peterborough have won 5 league games all season and their last win was December last year and they have 6 teams to play who are still chasing promotion so I think they will finish bottom. Barnsley have also only won 5 league games, but of late had a mini revival having won 2 games in their last 5 matches. On paper they have the slightly easier fixtures over the other relegation rivals (but football is not played on paper). They only have 4 games against teams still in with a chance of promotion, with 6 pointer's to play against Peterborough and Reading. With the lowest amount of goals scored in the championship, they lack the fire power to win more than 2 games in their remaining 10. So I feel they will finish 23rd. Reading who won back to back games last month after previously not won a league game since November have now lost 3 on the bounce and have Bournemouth (a), Blackburn (h) followed by a 6 pointer against Barnsley (a) in their next 3 matches. Even though they have scored more goals than Derby, they have conceded 72 (average of 2 per game). Looking at their remaining fixtures, they have the hardest run in with 5 teams still chasing promotion at this stage. I can only see them winning 2 of their remaing games and they don't draw many matches (5, the least draws in the championship). So at best they might only get another 9pts upto the end of the season. So I think 38-39 points will secure safety for the Rams. Can we get 14/15 points to stay up. 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats would do it. Or 5 wins and 4 defeats. The key to getting the wins is obviously in our home form, so Coventry, Preston, Fulham, Bristol and Cardiff are going to be all must win games. If we lose one or two, we have to find points on the road at either Blackburn, Swansea, QPR or Blackpool. What's in our favour, Coventry, Preston, Bristol, Cardiff, Swansea and Blackpool are not in with a chance of being involved in promotion or relegation. Blackburn could be a shock result for us, based on their recent results, so Tuesday night could be a big turning point for us. Premier ram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 still currently tracking at 37 points.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimtastic56 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 On 03/03/2022 at 11:09, Ghost of Clough said: I don't predict we'll go on a run of 1 win in 14 games though Clinging to faith in your graph. But the injury to CKR shows how many variables are involved in football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BramcoteRam84 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 5 of our remaining 8 games are at home with Fulham being the only one that isn’t a mid table or bottom half team, possibly Cov if you think they can make playoffs. Our 3 games away QPR looks tough but Swansea and Blackpool are winnable - we need to win away between now and the end of the season. Our last 3 games are Bristol (H) Blackpool (A) Cardiff (H). We may need to win our last 3 but they are all winnable. While difficult - this is not done yet. Premier ram, jimtastic56, Rammy03 and 1 other 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 hour ago, jimtastic56 said: Clinging to faith in your graph. But the injury to CKR shows how many variables are involved in football. Call it what you want, but I've correctly guessed 6 of the last 7 results and we're just 1 point off the target. Wins: Preston (h), Bristol(h) , Blackpool (a) Draws: Coventry (h), Fulham (h), Cardiff (h) Losses: Swansea (a), QPR (a) Adslegend, Crewton, Caerphilly Ram and 1 other 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimtastic56 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 7 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said: Call it what you want, but I've correctly guessed 6 of the last 7 results and we're just 1 point off the target. Wins: Preston (h), Bristol(h) , Blackpool (a) Draws: Coventry (h), Fulham (h), Cardiff (h) Losses: Swansea (a), QPR (a) Your predictions seem quite realistic, however it means Barnsley only require 3 wins from 9 games to send us down. Reading 2wins and a draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 36 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said: Your predictions seem quite realistic, however it means Barnsley only require 3 wins from 9 games to send us down. Reading 2wins and a draw. It took Barnsley 30 games to win their 3rd game of the season. 7 points for Reading is 0.78 ppg. Over the past 25 games, they've averaged 0.68. I stand by 37 points being the target required to stay up. jimtastic56 and Rammy03 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaLocks Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said: It took Barnsley 30 games to win their 3rd game of the season. 7 points for Reading is 0.78 ppg. Over the past 25 games, they've averaged 0.68. I stand by 37 points being the target required to stay up. You're right in that (hey, first time we've agreed in about three years, miracles do happen) but I guess the point is that there is so much more volatility at this end of the table. Five games ago I had us tracking a PPG average that was enough to overtake Reading (based on season to date). That calculation doesn't still hold (I don't think!) but three, even two, wins on the bounce and it certainly will. Ghost of Clough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimtastic56 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 On 16/03/2022 at 08:06, Ghost of Clough said: Call it what you want, but I've correctly guessed 6 of the last 7 results and we're just 1 point off the target. Wins: Preston (h), Bristol(h) , Blackpool (a) Draws: Coventry (h), Fulham (h), Cardiff (h) Losses: Swansea (a), QPR (a) I hope your betting on these predictions - you must be making a mint ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said: I hope your betting on these predictions - you must be making a mint ! I wish I was ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimtastic56 Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 On 10/02/2022 at 23:20, jimtastic56 said: It’s looking like a straight fight between us and Reading. But there are two things we have to be careful of - some promoted teams like Wycombe get the hang of things near the end of the season (ended up with 43 pts). And with Reading there could be a new manager “bounce” near the end of the season. We must aim for 48points. Hate to say “I told you” ☹️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyinLiverpool Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said: Hate to say “I told you” ☹️ I don't think you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimtastic56 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 I have not given up hope yet . 5 wins from 7 is not impossible. But Wayne has got to come up with a Bielsa type system , that will blow teams away. Rammy03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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