How many points to stay up

[Yani P]

44 minutes ago, Jimbo Ram said:

Can’t see any other team being dragged down in to the trap door challenge ?

I agree but who would have thought we would last year..its also why the points needed will probably creep up from the current 35  still hoping it remains lower than 44 based on where Reading are right now.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Yani P

[jimtastic56]

Barnsley beating Q P R was a real shock result. The lad they have on loan from Watford looks a bit of a player. Formerly of Chelsea , has only played 3 games this season. If he stays fit he will give them a boost so don’t write them off yet.

[Sparkle]

10 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

Barnsley beating Q P R was a real shock result. The lad they have on loan from Watford looks a bit of a player. Formerly of Chelsea , has only played 3 games this season. If he stays fit he will give them a boost so don’t write them off yet.

Apparently they should have won by a lot more as well 

[Addingham Ram]

19 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

Barnsley beating Q P R was a real shock result. The lad they have on loan from Watford looks a bit of a player. Formerly of Chelsea , has only played 3 games this season. If he stays fit he will give them a boost so don’t write them off yet.

Out of interest, how did Watford acquire the lad from Chelsea? Did he by any chance come via their Italian reserve side ? at a very good price?

[Ghost of Clough]

36 minutes ago, Addingham Ram said:

Out of interest, how did Watford acquire the lad from Chelsea? Did he by any chance come via their Italian reserve side ? at a very good price?

Joined West Ham at 16, then Watford at 18

[Eatonram]

42

[Ghost of Clough]

Usually, it 46 points is the standard target. Given, Reading's 6 point deduction, we'll take 40 as our starting point.

That means the ppg required from the 4 teams at the bottom are:
Reading - 0.94
Peterborough - 1.00
Derby - 1.27
Barnsley - 1.25

However, let's compare these ppg figures with how the 4 clubs have trended over the season (comparison with 6 game averages). Percentage each club has trended above the required figure:
Reading - 40%
Peterborough - 7%
Derby - 29%
Barnsley - 3%

40 points therefore is a bit too high. It's only when a 37 point target is set, that any club is above 50% (Reading 57%, Derby 48%). Answer = 37

FYI, here's a little graph showing the movement in 6 game averages over the season so far. The dotted lines representing the ppg required to reach 37 points.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Ghost of Clough

[StarterForTen]

I’d say we’ve just about ‘earned’ enough points to stay up already - 39.

So now the lads have to win back the points that the actions of others have robbed off them.

15 games to ‘re-win’ 21 points. Pin that on the dressing room door Wazza!

[Yani P]

Matching the 44 we got last season is still doable..if we get anywhere near that we will be safe well before the season ends.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Yani P

[Brammie Steve]

soooooomuch will depend on the results of 21 pointers like Saturdays home game vs Posh.

Win those and we'll make it, otherwise it's League one next season.

Either way I reckon we've won a lot of admirers among genuine football fans this season.

[kevinhectoring]

On 10/02/2022 at 21:06, europia said:

Probably circa 40 pts. We will most likely fall just short of that, as our reduced squad size catches up toward the end of the season. We won't fail due to lack of effort & commitment, that's for sure. 

 we may have had some in on frees before the end of the season. Looks quite likely 

[kevinhectoring]

12 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Usually, it 46 points is the standard target. Given, Reading's 6 point deduction, we'll take 40 as our starting point.

That means the ppg required from the 4 teams at the bottom are:
Reading - 0.94
Peterborough - 1.00
Derby - 1.27
Barnsley - 1.25

However, let's compare these ppg figures with how the 4 clubs have trended over the season (comparison with 6 game averages). Percentage each club has trended above the required figure:
Reading - 40%
Peterborough - 7%
Derby - 29%
Barnsley - 3%

40 points therefore is a bit too high. It's only when a 37 point target is set, that any club is above 50% (Reading 57%, Derby 48%). Answer = 37

FYI, here's a little graph showing the movement in 6 game averages over the season so far. The dotted lines representing the ppg required to reach 37 points.

‘Past performance is no indication of future events’. Key factors will be Beilik’s continuing recovery, injuries and whether Reading change manager. If those all go our way I think we have at least an even chance of a thrilling escape 

[angieram]

9 hours ago, Brammie Steve said:

soooooomuch will depend on the results of 21 pointers like Saturdays home game vs Posh.

Win those and we'll make it, otherwise it's League one next season.

Either way I reckon we've won a lot of admirers among genuine football fans this season.

So we get 21 points if we win? 

[TigerTedd]

On 10/02/2022 at 00:18, David said:

Replied to a tweet earlier asking where the points will be picked from so I had a go at it.

Couple of things first, this assumes we keep all key players fit and I should mention I have personally funded the Paddy Power Christmas party with my failed accas.

Don't worry, this isn't one of those daft predict a win in every game. I believe it's fairly realistic.

Will it be enough to stay up? No idea, that depends on the other teams around us. If they continue on the form they are, we should do it with ease, but you have to expect that at least one will go on a mini run at some point.

I can’t wait til the meltdown on here when we lose to QPR leaving us 8pts adrift with 3 games remaining. 

onky to come storming home with 3 back to back wins to secure safety on the last day. 

I already can’t take the stress just thinking about it. 

[Brammie Steve]

5 hours ago, angieram said:

So we get 21 points if we win? 

Well we lost them through no fault of the team. 
Or the manager…

or the fans.

So just keep winning ? 

[Ghost of Clough]

On 12/01/2022 at 09:20, Ghost of Clough said:

I posted this prior to the additional points deduction so figured I'd update it.

9 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses would take us to 45 points. This is the equivalent to us maintaining our form over the past 9 games (4W, 3D, 2L) for the rest of the season.
During that good run, we've had  to deal with matches being postponed, players missing due to Covid and experienced players being injured. With players still to return to fitness and others from injury, the youngsters continuing to improve and us looking likely to sign players, I see no reason why we cannot do it! ?

I plotted this ^ a month ago, which basically meant maintaining 1.62 ppg over the final 21 games to finish on 45 points. 6 games on, and we're only 1 point my hopeful prediction, which I find to be a very positive situation to be in.

Yesterday, I revised that target to just 37 points. The graph below shows this target is more than doable, roughly mirroring how we were performing prior to the Christmas purple period.

This is 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses (9, 12 and 10 so far this season)
Wins - Peterborough, Barnsley, Preston, Bristol, Blackpool
Draws - Millwall, Coventry, Fulham, Cardiff
Losses - Luton, Cardiff, Bournemouth, Blackburn, Swansea, QPR

I'll be surprised if we don't get to 37 points.

Black = Season to date
Grey = Previously predicted results (12/01/22)
Orange = New target (16/02/22)
Dotted line = PPG required 37 points
1st red line = 12/01/22
2nd red line = 16/02/22

Edited February 16, 2022 by Ghost of Clough

[jimtastic56]

I think most fans are being optimistic that a team will stay up with a total in the thirties.That would buck a trend that has gone on for years. Even Burton went down with a 40’s total and a tiny budget. The sooner we get into the forties the better. A late Marlon Pack goal may not come along this year.

[Ghost of Clough]

3 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

I think most fans are being optimistic that a team will stay up with a total in the thirties.That would buck a trend that has gone on for years. Even Burton went down with a 40’s total and a tiny budget. The sooner we get into the forties the better. A late Marlon Pack goal may not come along this year.

Don't forget the impact of points deductions. 37 for Reading this season would be 43 in a normal season. With Hull 4th bottom on around 46 points.

[Crewton]

16 hours ago, jimtastic56 said:

A late Marlon Pack goal may not come along this year.

Hopefully it will - in his own net on May 7th! 

[Ghost of Clough]

On 16/02/2022 at 16:06, Ghost of Clough said:

I plotted this ^ a month ago, which basically meant maintaining 1.62 ppg over the final 21 games to finish on 45 points. 6 games on, and we're only 1 point my hopeful prediction, which I find to be a very positive situation to be in.

Yesterday, I revised that target to just 37 points. The graph below shows this target is more than doable, roughly mirroring how we were performing prior to the Christmas purple period.

This is 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses (9, 12 and 10 so far this season)
Wins - Peterborough, Barnsley, Preston, Bristol, Blackpool
Draws - Millwall, Coventry, Fulham, Cardiff
Losses - Luton, Cardiff, Bournemouth, Blackburn, Swansea, QPR

I'll be surprised if we don't get to 37 points.

Black = Season to date
Grey = Previously predicted results (12/01/22)
Orange = New target (16/02/22)
Dotted line = PPG required 37 points
1st red line = 12/01/22
2nd red line = 16/02/22

Despite only picking up 1 win in the 3 games since this post, we're only 1 point behind my plotted target. In fact, my prediction factored in losing tonight and 2 of the 3 games after that.

We're also only 5 points behind my previously plotted path  after matchday 24 (when the end of season target was 45 points)