Chances of staying up....

[IlsonDerby]

8 hours ago, IslandExile said:

I think we're now going to be hit by the size and composition of the squad.

Stearman's red card means a 3 match ban. I don't think Forsyth's up to it anymore. Cashin is untested so we don't know how he'll get on.

Injuries are now hitting us - CKR, Bird, Jozwiak.

Youngsters are frequently inconsistent - too much is being asked of them.

Thompson and Bird have looked tired for a while now. Knight runs and runs but it must be taking its toll.

I think Rooney, the players and staff have been brilliant. I just feel the EFL have done us over in more ways than just the points deduction. The embargoes, the indecisiveness over the parasite claims, it all means the squad has been reduced to paper thin.

I want to believe we will stay up. I just think it's going to be just that bit too difficult - but, even so, the staff, Rooney, Rosenior and the players have more than done us proud.

We could have Mrs Doubtfire in defence with Curtis Davies and I’d still feel confident with Bird and Bielik above them such is my belief that Bielik is the best player in this division by a distance. ?

[IlsonDerby]

Get 6 points out the next 3 games and for me that distance to safety is down to at least 4 points probably more. No way reading win more than 1 they’re rubbish. 

[curb]

Barnsley Peterborough and Reading have won two games between them in their last 10 matches.

Two wins in 30 games.

Theres no reason to think that will change drastically.

[atherstoneram]

6 hours ago, IslandExile said:

I should've added "the administrators selling players without the manager's knowledge, let alone agreement".

I thought Rooney made a statement saying no player would leave without his say so.

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

8 hours ago, IslandExile said:

Rooney interview on RamsTV:

CKR out for ~ 4 weeks 

Jozwiak 6-8 weeks but still waiting for the full report 

Good news: Bird might be available for Hull

And there lies the biggest uncertainty, injuries, red card like Stearman last night and with our paper thin squad, we will be stretched too far to survive

[24Charlie]

Either we do stay up or we don’t. Strangely it’s what happens on the pitch is not as important and what happens off it. Which in itself is a sad commentary on the state of football in this country.

This team could lose every game til the end of the season and I’d still give them a standing ovation at the last game v Cardiff.

They have given us a rallying point and we’ve seen a man come to fore who absolutely gets it.

We may have come through the transfer window with most of our best players remaining but we have lost Jags and Shinnie which is telling.

It’s going to be so difficult to stay up but I just hope to god that we even have a team there to be relegated in May.

[Raich Carter]

I don’t think we’ll stay up cos of the threadbare squad - no other reason. EFL have done all they can to ensure we go down to placate the aggressors. 

[Crewton]

48 minutes ago, atherstoneram said:

I thought Rooney made a statement saying no player would leave without his say so.

It appears that's what he was told, but Quantuma lied. 

[atherstoneram]

5 minutes ago, Crewton said:

It appears that's what he was told, but Quantuma lied. 

Was that just for the transfer window?

[Tamworthram]

9 hours ago, Ram1988 said:

I genuinely feel it is 50/50. The next few home games against Hull, Peterborough and Milwall will be massive.

There’s no need to write us off just yet but, with the existing gap, diminishing squad and ever reducing number of games left, I’d say our chances are far worse than 50/50.

Sadly, whilst I think Reading and Peterborough will not escape the battle for the remaining relegation spot, it almost feels inevitable that they’ll have a mini run of 2 or 3 wins at some point which will keep them out of our range. In the meantime though, it’s still game on  and I’m very confident that the players, managers and fans will keep pushing. #we’ll fight till the end.

[Crewton]

2 hours ago, atherstoneram said:

Was that just for the transfer window?

No idea - I've never seen it stated specifically by Quantuma, just by Rooney and (I think) in the minutes of one of the SCG meetings, and neither were that precise. But if they seriously said "not in this transfer window" and didn't add "but we can't guarantee we won't be selling academy players outside the transfer window", that's very devious.

A bit of honesty is all that was required, particularly in their discussions with Rooney. Makes me wonder if they're trying to push Rooney into resigning to save money - sounds bonkers, I know, but the apparent disregard they've shown him over this and the Plange transfer is such an own goal, it would almost be worse if it was an error rather than deliberate.

I've been pretty supportive of them until now, but I think they need to clear the air on this, pronto.

[BramcoteRam84]

We can still stay up. We’ve had a dip but we’ve given ourselves a chance and I will believe we can until it’s no longer possible. We need luck with injuries, but Bird should hopefully back and a fully fit Bielik will make a huge difference. 
 

Forest wasn’t an awful performance but wasn’t quite good enough, Birmingham was the worst we’ve played for a while but we found a way to get something, last night the red card in the 3rd minute killed us, without that I think we could’ve got something last night and it was a real creditable effort.

We have 3 out the next 4 games at home, we need to win 2 of those at least to keep ourselves in the mix. We also need Reading and Peterborough to carry on being abysmal and those 2 games we have against Cardiff could be crucial.

There is a lot to play for yet and the fat lady is definitely still not signing!! 
 

??????????

[Black ('n' White) Sheep]

I've still got us as staying up if all teams carried their last 10 games form over the rest of the season... not all is lost! ?

[TheresOnlyWanChope]

We have a chance but if Reading or even Peterborough find any sort of form, Derby will probably find it too much. I think suspensions and injuries will just about kill us off. The squad is too thin anyway. Definitely have a chance still and win against Hull or Boro and it looks better but Derby need a consistent run of wins and have stalled in recent matches. 
Wont give up until mathematically down! For the first time in many years, Derby seem to score late goals and come up with something unexpected. Love the ‘fight to the end’ mantra. Way better than the ‘Derby way’

[BaaLocks]

We are better than at least three teams in this division, we are only seven points away from realising that even with the deduction we have been offered, our goal difference is always going to work in our favour - and we have seventeen games to close that gap. Points per game, season so far, suggests it is very much in our grasp especially when Reading can't buy a draw, never mind a win.

And, if we sort out the future of the club by the end of Feb, we can realistically expect to have the embargo lifted and to have enough short term contracts in to help us to the end of the season.

There are only three options to this:

OPTION ONE: No buyer found, DCFC cease to exist

OPTION TWO: Buyer pays off existing creditors, we will stay up

OPTION THREE: We do not pay off creditors exiting administration and get hit with the -15 points this season that sends us down

I see the last option as the most likely outcome. It's the saddest of all of them (extinction aside) because it means that the fate of the football club was not decided by the football the club played. On the other hand, you'd have to say most people would want us to have some form of meaningful punishment for our trangressions so I would suggest this will be imposted this year to make sure that happens. It won't be the end of the world, we'll bounce back and I honestly could live with that if it is what comes to pass.

[Ghost of Clough]

1 hour ago, BaaLocks said:

We are better than at least three teams in this division, we are only seven points away from realising that even with the deduction we have been offered, our goal difference is always going to work in our favour - and we have seventeen games to close that gap. Points per game, season so far, suggests it is very much in our grasp especially when Reading can't buy a draw, never mind a win.

And, if we sort out the future of the club by the end of Feb, we can realistically expect to have the embargo lifted and to have enough short term contracts in to help us to the end of the season.

There are only three options to this:

OPTION ONE: No buyer found, DCFC cease to exist

OPTION TWO: Buyer pays off existing creditors, we will stay up

OPTION THREE: We do not pay off creditors exiting administration and get hit with the -15 points this season that sends us down

I see the last option as the most likely outcome. It's the saddest of all of them (extinction aside) because it means that the fate of the football club was not decided by the football the club played. On the other hand, you'd have to say most people would want us to have some form of meaningful punishment for our trangressions so I would suggest this will be imposted this year to make sure that happens. It won't be the end of the world, we'll bounce back and I honestly could live with that if it is what comes to pass.

The 15 points would apply to next season

[Jortat]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

The 15 points would apply to next season

Giving us another mountain to climb next season as well.

I would still take that and have our team to support .

This really is a depressing time.

I thought all the shenanigans in the 80’s were bad but this is on another level.

I have my tickets for the Hull and Peterborough games and will cheer the Rams on and for 90 minutes you can forget all EFL stuff and enjoy the real reason we love football.

 

[Taribo]

Not wishing to be a gloom merchant but if we do manage to stay up then there are still issues:

We have 5 (ish?) players in contract after this season finishes and our best academy prospects picked off. Those players out of contract are currently free to sign a pre-contract with other clubs.

Rooney keeping us up would mean he would have a decent chance of any Premier League job he fancied and he would possibly see it as he'd earnt his managerial wings and would fancy a step-up.

All this still relies on a new owner and getting out of admin without a -15 deduction next season, but even with a new sugardaddy owner how much could really be spent under P&S? Would it be enough to fund the 10 to 15 players needed just to be competitive in the Championship and what manager could we entice/afford to take on such a big task?

(This post is not advocating a drop to League One as a solution)

 

[Chris_Martin]

7 minutes ago, Taribo said:

 

Rooney keeping us up would mean he would have a decent chance of any Premier League job he fancied

 

[angieram]

19 minutes ago, Jortat said:

 

I have my tickets for the Hull and Peterborough games and will cheer the Rams on and for 90 minutes you can forget all EFL stuff and enjoy the real reason we love football.

 

To be honest, that's the only escape at the minute, when you're actually at the games watching the football.