Chances of staying up....

[Rich84]

14 minutes ago, Taribo said:

Not wishing to be a gloom merchant but if we do manage to stay up then there are still issues:

We have 5 (ish?) players in contract after this season finishes and our best academy prospects picked off. Those players out of contract are currently free to sign a pre-contract with other clubs.

 

Keep seeing this comment and as has been said elsewhere,  I believe you can only sign pre contract agreements for a club in another association,  Kris Commons for instance,  so yes this is true, but limits the opportunity as you have to be happy to go abroad, so I don't expect everyone out of contract to start losing focus because they have signed for someone else....

[Wignall12]

37 minutes ago, Rich84 said:

Keep seeing this comment and as has been said elsewhere,  I believe you can only sign pre contract agreements for a club in another association,  Kris Commons for instance,  so yes this is true, but limits the opportunity as you have to be happy to go abroad, so I don't expect everyone out of contract to start losing focus because they have signed for someone else....

I think its time to recognise the fact that no matter what we do , the EFL will still find even more means to dock points , keep us under stringent embargo or throw multiple obstacles in our way to ensure we go down . Utter Gibbons the lot of them . WE FIGHT 'TILL THE END !

[BaaLocks]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

The 15 points would apply to next season

Is that for sure? Like written in stone?

[Jourdan]

I am not too despondent about recent losses. Huddersfield and Forest are not particularly good but both are pushing for the play-offs and both are playing with confidence and riding momentum, which can make a world of difference in this division.

Away from home, there is a sense that we will always require someone to step up and seize their moment and win us the game. Unfortunately we didn’t do that in recent games, but having retained the likes of Lawrence and Plange, it could happen in the future.

The margins seem very fine to me: I see no reason to believe we can’t stay up. Of course we can. But the key to it all is making the winnable games count.

Hull, Peterborough, Barnsley, Millwall, Coventry, Cardiff, Preston and Bristol City all have to come to PP. What greater incentive could we have?

We are capable of winning every single one of those games and giving ourselves a genuine shot. The question is whether we can keep our heads and get the results we need.

The Forest and Birmingham games suggest nerves have begun to creep in and expectation is weighing heavily on the players.

[RoyMac5]

Just now, Jourdan said:

I am not too despondent about recent losses. Huddersfield and Forest are not particularly good but both are pushing for the play-offs and both are playing with confidence and riding momentum, which can make a world of difference in this division.

Away from home, there is a sense that we will always require someone to step up and seize their moment and win us the game. Unfortunately we didn’t do that in recent games, but having retained the likes of Lawrence and Plange, it could happen in the future.

The margins seem very fine to me: I see no reason to believe we can’t stay up. Of course we can. But the key to it all is making the winnable games count.

Hull, Peterborough, Barnsley, Millwall, Coventry, Cardiff, Preston and Bristol City all have to come to PP. What greater incentive could we have?

We are capable of winning every single one of those games and giving ourselves a genuine shot. The question is whether we can keep our heads and get the results we need.

The Forest and Birmingham games suggest nerves have begun to creep in and expectation is weighing heavily on the players.

Mate! Someone's hacked your account - change your password asap!!! ? #COYR

[IslandExile]

2 minutes ago, Jourdan said:

I am not too despondent about recent losses. Huddersfield and Forest are not particularly good but both are pushing for the play-offs and both are playing with confidence and riding momentum, which can make a world of difference in this division.

Away from home, there is a sense that we will always require someone to step up and seize their moment and win us the game. Unfortunately we didn’t do that in recent games, but having retained the likes of Lawrence and Plange, it could happen in the future.

The margins seem very fine to me: I see no reason to believe we can’t stay up. Of course we can. But the key to it all is making the winnable games count.

Hull, Peterborough, Barnsley, Millwall, Coventry, Cardiff, Preston and Bristol City all have to come to PP. What greater incentive could we have?

We are capable of winning every single one of those games and giving ourselves a genuine shot. The question is whether we can keep our heads and get the results we need.

The Forest and Birmingham games suggest nerves have begun to creep in and expectation is weighing heavily on the players.

The world has gone upside down.

@Jourdan is now the most positive poster on this thread.

Is this a dream?

[plymouthram]

22 hours ago, Rammy03 said:

We are still only 7 points from safety, we've just got to keep battling through and picking up points. The last few games have been fine margins. The teams down there are poor, we can get in front of Barnsley and Peterborough. Reading are the target, if they continue their poor run there is no reason why we cannot catch them even with a depleted squad. It's very much possible. 

And don't forget Reading have shipped out players during January, also they don't have us to play, so can't gain ground on us by beating us. What ever way you look at it now, it's 4 teams in the fight and only one will survive (unless some other team in the bottom half goes on freefall).

[plymouthram]

When we reach April (the business end of the season) we have got to be still in the mix, so we must match or better Peterboro, Barnsley and Reading points total going into April.

In April we have Preston (h), Swansea (a), Fulham (h), QPR (a), Bristol (h), Blackpool (a) and then in May Cardiff (h). Looking at those teams only QPR and Fulham could be still chasing promotion, the rest could be middle table teams.                                                       Barnsley have Reading (h), Millwall (a), Swasea (a), Peterboro (h), Huddersfield (a), Preston (h) and in May WBA (a). Thats 6 pointer's against Reading and Peterboro both home games, but still have 2 games against teams chasing promotion.                                     Peterborough have M'boro (h), Luton (h), Bristol (a), Blackburn (h), Barnsley (a), Forest (h), Millwall (a) and then in May Blackpool (h). That's 6 pointer with Barnsley and 3 teams still chasing promotion.                                                                                                           Reading have Barnsley (a), Stoke (h), Cardiff (h), Sheff Utd (a), Swansea (h), Hull (a), WBA (h) and in May Luton (a). That's A 6 pointer against Barnsley and one match against a team still pushing for promotion.                                                                                                   Take note that both teams currently above us have 8 games to play compared with Barnsley and Derby who currently have just 7.

Reading on paper have the easier run in, but their current form is not good only winning 2 games since the end of October.

Barnsley have only won 2 games so far and have shipped in 43 goals but their goals scored is only a meagre 17.

Peterborough have only won 5 matches, scored just 23 and let 55 giving them the worse goal difference in the Championship.

Derby, if they can avoid suspensions and injuries going into April have no games against the other 3 which means no 6 pointer's.           My conclusion is we must pick up more points than the other 3 teams going into April. In our favour is that we have Peterboro and Barnsley to play at home, which are both must win games prior to April.

[TigerTedd]

8 hours ago, Jourdan said:

I am not too despondent about recent losses. Huddersfield and Forest are not particularly good but both are pushing for the play-offs and both are playing with confidence and riding momentum, which can make a world of difference in this division.

Away from home, there is a sense that we will always require someone to step up and seize their moment and win us the game. Unfortunately we didn’t do that in recent games, but having retained the likes of Lawrence and Plange, it could happen in the future.

The margins seem very fine to me: I see no reason to believe we can’t stay up. Of course we can. But the key to it all is making the winnable games count.

Hull, Peterborough, Barnsley, Millwall, Coventry, Cardiff, Preston and Bristol City all have to come to PP. What greater incentive could we have?

We are capable of winning every single one of those games and giving ourselves a genuine shot. The question is whether we can keep our heads and get the results we need.

The Forest and Birmingham games suggest nerves have begun to creep in and expectation is weighing heavily on the players.

Yesterday was actually the only time this season we were beaten by more than the odd goal. And that was playing 90 mins with 10 men. No one has trounced us in this league all season. I think that’s remarkable. 

Without the points deduction, we would be firmly mid table. We’re not world beaters, we’re not promotion or even play off candidates, and nor should we expect to be given all our restrictions. Just look at where we were last season, and we haven’t exactly strengthened since then. So mid table is also remarkable. 

my point is, as you say, we shouldn’t be expecting to beat teams like Huddersfield and Forest. Even without the points deduction they would be a good few points above us in the league, they are better than us this season. We are very much the underdogs when we play them away. 

but there are 8 clubs below us in the league (if you discount the points deductions). 8 clubs that we are better than up to this point in the season, and most of them we’re playing at home. These are games we can go into as favourites. Win most of these games, and we’re flying high. Points against teams above us are a bonus. A win against Bournemouth makes up for a loss against Barnsley. Unfortunately it doesn’t matter the quality of the opponents, 3pts is 3pts either way. The more we can win against teams below us, the more we can afford to lose against teams above us. 

we’ve just got to take care of the business we can, and should, be able to take care of, and not get too disheartened in the games we were never likely to win. Having said that it is heartening to see that we are still going toe to toe with teams that are (based on their points so far) better than us. Teams like forest and Huddersfield in 5th clearly aren’t that much better than us. 

My concern is that we will tire, but bielik is like a new January signing, which actually makes our transfer window pretty successful, all things considered. If he can stay fit, he should be pretty fresh. We just need a bit of luck with not too many crippling injuries between now and the end of the season. 

[Asanovic70]

I think the EFL lack the courage of their convictions - if they wanted to relegate/demote a club for various transgressions, then they ought to have done so at the season's outset. Instead, they keep changing the goal-posts (deliberate pun). They have ensured that we have been doubly disadvantaged by losing players but not being able to replace any with free signings etc in January. Surely, that weakens the integrity of the competition they espouse so much.

They have constantly put barriers which have stalled any bid. What I find truly bizarre is that they are hoarding trouble for themselves, and I take satisfaction in the thought that Rick Parry will soon have his work cut out, spinning plates, when the pandemic's effect on clubs' finances (Bristol City for example) really begins to take effect in the next twelve months. They are deliberately undermining a club at a time when others who abided the rules could enter difficult financial situations. Look at Rochdale, they keep selling their best players every window. Soon, they will run out of promising players  to sell in order to survive? Then what?

As for the OP's question, this was always my fear that injuries etc will take their toll and a thin squad get stretched. We have done so well to even get to this point of having a chance of survival. This is one of the bravest, most honest Derby sides I have ever had the pleasure of supporting, the most fitting tribute I can pay them is that they would beat the 11pt side, by sheer spirit alone (think how Preston brushed us aside in the FAC).

Reading are on the verge of imploding, the manager seems to have lost the dressing-room/or the owners can't afford to sack him. They are heading for serious financial problems themselves, as they are amongst the four teams (ourselves, Birmingham & Sheff W) whose owners sold their stadia to themselves. I can see blinking Ince though scoring the goals that somehow get them results.

My fear is that one of our relegation rivals will string a run of a couple of wins to keep them ahead of us, Cardiff's two wins will act as massive boosts for them, & surprise, surprise, a Boro loanee helped them to achieve one. As others have pointed out, our games against us are vital as 6-pointers.

Barnsley are gone, Peterborough weakened by the loss of Dembele & usually one promoted side returns straight back. I think our recent run heaped pressure on the sides above us, and the key to any survival clearly lies in scoring goals, so CKR's loss is a blow. Having said that, having a good midfield means that we can retain control of games. I don't like to see too much pressure put on Bielik, he has to be treated with some care, but the likes of Bird, Knight, etc mean our midfield is as competitive as any in the division, hence our results against the better sides. I hope Morrison uses the time out to reflect on his silly behaviour against Forest, and that he has something still to offer in terms of creativity in the absence of Jozwiak, and to treat this as an opportunity to redeem himself.

[CBRammette]

Zero chance. See transfer thread

[Rich84]

9 minutes ago, CBRammette said:

Zero chance. See transfer thread

Why, he's available for the rest of the season, if we had sold in Jan for the pittance on offer he wouldn't have been, this is all down to EFL restrictions on contract length and them being in bed with Gibson so we can't get taken over.

Frustrating,  but expected, not sure who else is out of contract that may generate interest, but we may see a couple more like this. 

[Ted McMinn Football Genius]

43 minutes ago, Rich84 said:

Why, he's available for the rest of the season, if we had sold in Jan for the pittance on offer he wouldn't have been, this is all down to EFL restrictions on contract length and them being in bed with Gibson so we can't get taken over.

Frustrating,  but expected, not sure who else is out of contract that may generate interest, but we may see a couple more like this. 

He’s not going to be 100% in it though is he

[Asanovic70]

typo: As others have pointed out, our games against our relegation rivals are vital as 6-pointers.

A bit disappointed that it doesn't look like others will get dragged into the dogfight, there's usually more sides involved & at the moment, we are amongst the four sides battling to avoid the three places available & the cushion between us & Cardiff looks too big a gap now. Sides can afford to have a poor run but eke out a vital win along the way. I can't see any side imploding 2nd half of the season as does occasionally happen. Swansea have been on a poor run but expect them to respond.