Survival - a percentage evaluation thread.

[plymouthram]

25 minutes ago, SouthStandDan said:

Given how poor the relegation rivals are, I think 45 points will be enough for safety this season. 10 wins from 22, a few more draws. 

If we can bring in reinforcements I'd say 50%

Got to agree the Championship is poor, we've got 2 teams currently in a play off place thats lost more games than the Rams. There will not be lots of clubs splashing the cash in this transfer window, so some of them will not improve their current form at this halfway stage of the season. Some of them have been calling games off stating they have'nt enough players to play the game.  EFL have been hoodwinked over that (they stated 14 players fit including youth and one goalie). I remember Rotherham cancelling matches last season when they had just 4 or 5 key players with covid (well it bit them on the bum having to play 2/3 games a week in the last 4 weeks of the season.

Win 3 and draw one of our 5 January fixtures and I think I would move our chances from 10% to about 30%.

[Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster]

Can anyone else hear Steve McQueen's motorbike revving up?  I'd like to think so, but in reality I think he's just looking at that seized-up motorbike, wondering if many hours of oiling, failed attempts to get it going, will even result in it even getting going again, let alone join the race.
I'd  like to think Steve is tinkering with his ancient machinery at our training ground, with a view to riding it into Pride Park Park, with 10 games to go, revving his way around the perimeter of the pitch, every last few games.
Then I woke up - and we survived relegation this year. What a dream that was!

[ramsbottom]

From 15th on the league table down only Reading are showing okay-ish form so if we come away with 3 points on Monday and the form continues for a few more weeks things are going to get REALLY interesting…

Lets also not forget that bar 4-5 teams there’s a lot of bang average sides in this league. Yes it’s improbable, but not yet impossible…

 

[Jram]

I’m loving the excitement of them giving it a go and my heart is getting carried away but my head is saying 0% 

I just think we’ll have a run of 5 or 6 games without a win at some point and it will scupper our chances 

I still think it will be a positive season though considering the players who’ve come through 

[Ramslad1992]

Enjoying the win tonight, after the points deduction the whole footballing world wrote us off.

These last 3 games have made me prouder than any 3 in the last 25 years. We aren’t going to roll over and die, let’s take each game as it goes, hopefully win more than we lose and see where we are at the end of the season. 

duck the EFL, duck the rest of the league, duck that girly haired duck Gibson, we are Derby County and we’ll fight ‘til the end! ?

[Marriot Ram99]

1 hour ago, Andicis said:

You're more optimistic than me! It's a great result tonight, thing is that we have to maintain promotion form for the rest of the season to stand a chance, and overall I think we'll just fall short. I'd give us a 3% chance of survival. 

I'd give us a 25% of survival and I'm good at maths tbh. Not that it  matters when it comes to this though as anything could happen really but 3% is very pessimistic imo. 

10 wins and 5 draws with 7 losses should do it, top 6 form yes, but this league is absolutely poo. Stoke are a playoff contender and they are dross, our spirit and determination +quality in defence makes it a possibility to me. Not a massive chance but much more likely than a very small one I think.

Maybe I've over optimistic after watching the game, but that's 3 wins on the bounce now and I think once Kazim gets fit enough to start that will help us + we potentially have Bielik retuning. Not that we need him really on tonight's showing. 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Marriot Ram99

[AndyB]

Slim I’d say, maybe 5% max. We will need around a point a game average to stay up I think, which is a tall order when you’ve been deducted 21!

[SillyBilly]

The hope will kill us but I am enjoying the ride nonetheless. I still think its effectively impossible, we may get bloody close but the -21 is such an insane handicap that it'll prove too much ultimately. I'll be proud if we can take it as close to the wire as possible just to give those ahead of us a bit of a sweat if nothing else. If we keep them needing points in their last 3 games or so it'll be one hell of an achievement.

[Albert]

Honestly, I think we have a much better chance than most realise. 

I know it's not everyone's favourite, but looking at the deduction as a 'per game' thing, we're more like on 20 points. We're in the drop on that, but far from dead, and I'd argue we've been in worse positions. 

Fiddling about with some old models I used gives us around a 30% chance of surviving, while more sophisticated analyses like FiveThirtyEight's gives it to be more like 24%. 

Relegation remains the most likely outcome, but with a good run at some point, and maintaining our standards otherwise, we could well pull off the miracle. 

[LeedsCityRam]

Not really in the spirit of the thread but % evaluation is so difficult given the number of variables, especially which players we can keep & if any other clubs implode before May.

Said it before but I'm purely looking in terms of milestones instead of the whole picture. First two miestones were to get out of negative points, then to double points & we've done both quicker than I thought. Next milestone is to get past Barnsley, who seem to be struggling badly. Once we're off the bottom, the belief we can reel others in should increase.

My checklist (I accept 3 & 4 and 4 & 5 may swap depending on events elsewhere);

1. Get out of negative points DONE

2. Get into double figures points DONE

3. Get off the bottom/past Barnsley

4. Get within 9 points/3 games off 4th bottom

5. Get to 22nd (looking like Peterborough are the target)

6. Get within one positive result of 4th bottom

7. Get out of bottom 3

Edited December 31, 2021 by LeedsCityRam

[Marriot Ram99]

11 minutes ago, Albert said:

Honestly, I think we have a much better chance than most realise. 

I know it's not everyone's favourite, but looking at the deduction as a 'per game' thing, we're more like on 20 points. We're in the drop on that, but far from dead, and I'd argue we've been in worse positions. 

Fiddling about with some old models I used gives us around a 30% chance of surviving, while more sophisticated analyses like FiveThirtyEight's gives it to be more like 24%. 

Relegation remains the most likely outcome, but with a good run at some point, and maintaining our standards otherwise, we could well pull off the miracle. 

Exactly,its not an easy feat but in the position we are in now it is much more likely than most realise. 

I looked at a projected table earlier on before the game and basically we were 3 wins and a draw off survival extrapolated over the course of the season, we won tonight so that only improves that. We have lost and drawn alot of close games, so if we can improve in attack say Richards starts banging them in and starting games it is not an impossible feat to essentially turn 3 or 4 draws into wins and say 2 or 3 narrow losses into draws. 

Edited December 31, 2021 by Marriot Ram99

[kevinhectoring]

43 minutes ago, richgee1976 said:

Agreed! 3 points against Reading and it'll be 120%!

Easy to get carried away when we are in a purple patch. We’ve had some good fortune lately and we just do better against the top teams !
 

It’s a lot to do with who we beat. That loss against Posh still rankles. Could prove a big 6 pointer. 

I’d say we could with a following wind  achieve 8th - 6 th place form for the rest of the season, assuming we’re not weakened in Jan ( I don’t think that’s a big assumption). I think that would be enough to keep us up IF we win more than our fair share of 6 pointers.
 

12% today.   15% if we beat Reading, that’s a big one.  

[Van der MoodHoover]

1 hour ago, Yani P said:

We were always staying up..it was never in doubt as long as the ownership is sorted..I would say roughly 83.68% certain..

If there's one thing that really grinds my gears it's spurious accuracy. 

 

I've talked to my friends about it and 72.94% of them are in full agreement.... ?

[Carl Sagan]

Before the season started and all this administration stuff, I thought we were relegation candidates. Because the Championship is much of a muchness this season, I reckon it will be 49 or 50 points to survive, so for our remaining 22 games that's about 1.8 points per game. Which is strong playoff form and saw us get autos one season IIRC.

Then, as we've reached year end without the administrators finding a buyer, and now entering the transfer window, I presume most of the squad will be sold or move on. 

Therefore I'd put our chances of surviving at around 1%. Play this season 100 times from this point onwards and we might survive as a Championship club once. Let's hope it's that season.

[Day]

2 hours ago, Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster said:

Can anyone else hear Steve McQueen's motorbike revving up? 

*Stolen from Twitter, I take no credit for this*

[Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster]

Loving the deep-thought out analyses and responses.

My initial 10% assessment might be slightly on the generous side.

Make no mistake, it is truly a Herculean task, but I hadn't in any way envisaged our recent three wins.

It's turned our task from the "You're having a laugh" ridiculously impossible, to the " You know what, we've got a sniff of a chance "

It's the hope that kills you. If you had weighed up Leicester's chances of winning the Premier League a couple of seasons ago, you'd have laughed 

I'd consider our challenge as being 1/3rd of doing a Leicester as the situation stands.

You've got to dream. It's not impossible, but it is ridiculously improbable.

It will be interesting in the coming weeks and months how, if this thread continues, sentiments change.

That's why this ridiculous game affects our lives so much 

[G-Ram]

Be nice to win the next 3 or 4 on the bounce it would put us right in the mix

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DesertRam]

This may be ridiculous, but....

It would be interesting to know what the odds are for 

avoiding relegation

I would definitely have a gambol on that ?

 

[Oldben]

I think our next games a really important game if we can beat Reading who not to distant from us in the table and in the mix of the pack we are chasing.

I'm thinking we can overhaul Burnley and Peterborough. 

The Burnley fans must be unhappy they are finishing bottom, even after Derby got a 21 point deduction.

I'm wondering if we can put enough points together to get 20th place on the table and stay up.

 

[Dimmu]

I'm very much a betting man and into a stats, but I dare not use my skills when it comes to our team. Time to make the exception!

Maybe a month or two ago I said I can see us bypassing Barnsley and Peterborough, and that case remains. Yet, I counted us a probability of 16.67% for staying up which I slightly higher than I expected.

We need to keep this team together over the January and we have a chance. Maybe some point deduction for others as well and we might actually have a good chance. 

Whatever happens, I'm proud of the fight the players are showing!