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SillyBilly

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  1. The Budget

    It is criminal, my house is in the Midlands but I live and work elsewhere, currently in the SE (renting). According to the IFS ( https://www.ifs.org.uk/wheredoyoufitin/), I'm supposedly in the top 3% of household incomes nationally and yet I couldn't afford to buy a 3 bed terrace in an average part of the local town to me. I am disgusted by the situation, so many demoralised young people down here and who can blame them? If I can't afford it, who can?
  2. The Budget

    You know who is pulling the strings when the "solutions" are actually the causes...Help to Buy should be named "Help the Banker" or "Help the (house)Builder". Market props to a price level people can't afford to start with does not ever benefit the buyers, only the sellers and builders. In any sensible non-bankster/gov manipulated market prices would naturally correct to find a price level people can transact at. Yet with the current backdrop, you'll see media propaganda of the benefits of credit enslavement....cue a selection of brainwashed "Millenial A's" (and I don't mean it offensively) talking about their foray onto the ladder and saying how wonderful the government, the banks and the national builders have been to award them a lifetime of debt servitude for a shoebox. Blissfully unaware the reality is their home has been made 25% more expensive than it would have been before as the market simply reacts to absorb the credit inflation (new money) and set a new "floor" in the market. Harder for "Millenial B's" to buy now...increase HTB limit to £600,000...and so on. People need to wake up to the fact we're being enslaved by debt creators who create money out of thin air and can enslave people for a lifetime. The reality is housing only really creates productive economic value in the building process. Mortgaging the house creates very little economic value other than the profit on the loan, little "gdp boosting" productive work is done now, a slither at best. And consider even a "middle aged" house or older (most of the housing stock) may have been mortgaged several times over from the build date then you begin to question who the high prices really serve, the productivity gains for the general economy are long gone. Keep prices high and keep plebs preoccupied for a limetime in paying the money back. Again...the money which was created out of thin air.
  3. The Budget

    You are sadly misinformed if you think that would make a difference. Time and time again it has been proven it is the supply of CREDIT which contributes to the bulk of price movement. The lack of comprehension here means we're never going to get a grip on the problem and that is unforgiveable for me. There are many examples (even in the past 10 years) where countries have had exploding prices despite massive supply increases. In Spain they increased their national housing stock by 25%...25% in 9 years and in the SAME time period property prices increased by 150%...yes,150%. It was only when the supply of credit crashed (the aptly named "credit crunch") and banks refused to lend did the prices move down. It was not supply driven in bricks and mortar and unfortunately most don't understand something unless its physical. Why was this the case anyway? Simply speaking, a market that is traded with a significant level of borrowed money will set the price level at whatever the banks are willing to lend at. Greed and loose credit will drive property prices higher regardless of whether the things sit empty or occupied. London real estate is a good example of that, lots of prime London is unoccupied. I really do lament the fact that there is little to no understanding that a supply of 300,000 a year won't even knock 5% off property prices which have doubled and trebled in price in the last 20 years or so. The unpalatable medicine here to solve this crisis is also plunging millions of Brits into negative equity and hence why nothing will happen unless a market event (crash) reverses interest rates almost overnight. The solution to high prices is restoring the base rate to 4-5% (will knock 30-40% of price immediately i.e most of the "froth" of the last 10 years), stopping HTB (credit creation tool) and reigning in the no. of mortgages which can be transacted at 4.5 times income (perhaps lowering to 4) as well as the general tightening of lending. Everything else is playing around the edges and won't make a damned bit of difference in the grand scheme of things. See Ireland too, exact same as Spain.
  4. Brexit or Eurin?

    The Yen has depreciated 30% against USD since 2013 yet I wouldn't describe Japan as Portugal - naturally, in Japan's case, trashing their currency was actually state policy, such are the benefits in export driven economies (and much to the annoyance of America incidentally). I actually think (and invested on the basis of) there was a Sterling overvaluation pre-Brexit (I even went as far as saying parity with USD way before this all kicked off) - I've also long held the view that devaluation is a very useful steer, where poltiicans have failed, for an economy dangerously biased toward services with an ever dwlingling manufacturing contribution. The UK's productivity puzzle (article again on this issue on BBC News today) is at least in part due to the difficulty of getting productive returns out of industries such as leisure/retail etc. So, devaluation brings as much opportunity to the UK as it does challenges for me. I don't disagree that it wouldn't be painful in the short term either as we're clearly so heavily import driven now but I'd strongly argue any short term pain which could drive a larger manufacturing sector here is a critical long term dividend payer for this country. Give the UK a manufacturing sector like Germany and you can see easily where investment could drive genuine productive growth to alleviate the so-called "productivity puzzle". And on the Euro, I'd rather weather the next recession with Sterling in my pocket than Euro personally. Principally because I am not convinced that the Euro's complex construct can survive another downturn without major fiscal reform, unless they consolidate national debts on a supranational level then it is the most vulnerable currency to deconstruction that I know of. I still see no evidence whatsoever of ANY appetite for this medicine in Europe. No such reform is needed with Sterling as we're an evidently sovereign nation with a national central bank with a consolidated UK debt market. That actually counts for a lot in my book as there is absolutely no ambiguity with Sterling, it is one thing worrying about value of currency, it is another not even fully understanding who stands behind the currency. Lets not pretend the next phase of the Euro won't be born from a defining crisis, one way or the other. As always, no-one will act until they are forced to, hence why downturns always, always result in the big, decisive actions that shape the future - lets see what happens.
  5. Brexit or Eurin?

    A good post but I'm a little perplexed about hearing about how rudderless the UK gov is at home compared to Europe. I think we need to be taking advantage as compared to Europe we're actually pretty stable! May won an election with 10% more of the vote than Merkel got in Germany which I think people forget mandate wise, coalition yet to be put together there. Kay's agenda has more support here than the platform Merkel campaigned on in Germany, not something you'd assume with the constant talking down of the UK. Italy is in political and economic chaos. Spain has its worst constitutional crisis in decades. The Netherlands has only JUST got a working government. Belgium is, well Belgium, lucky if they have any government at all. At the EU level I think the split could manifest very easily if Poland and Hungary are short changed running up to 2020 with Germany and France putting the brakes on a deal. Tensions are already there with those two for well known reasons. From what I read from the Netherlands and Sweden (even Belgium of late) the position is a lot softer to the UK than it is in Germany and France too. I would make the commission justify a no deal at this stage and see how the member states react to that potential.
  6. Broadband Compensation

    Indeed. I don't access the internet at all on holiday, ever. Phone is generally switched off altogether and if not off, then wifi/mobile data disabled. I want a break from being "on" all the time and plugged into the world. Having holidayed with friends and seeing how stressed they can become when even running low on battery you see it for the huge addiction problem it is - can't switch off at all. Must admit if it wasn't for work I'd happily give the smart phone up and go back to something which just handles calls.
  7. Sexual Harassment

    Perhaps it doesn't matter if you're gulity or not anyway, the damage is done already, a reputation is something which takes a lifetime to build and yet can be destroyed in a second, seemingly without prima facie evidence now. Whatever the outcome here, I hope we come to appreciate the dangers of the power dynamic we're creating . Namely, accusers with the rights of anonymity being able to remove senior males from top jobs without the accused knowing the accusation, the accuser and with no right to privacy. This should be so obviously wrong to anyone with any sense.
  8. Brexit or Eurin?

    You're obviously fortunate enough not to have to travel much on the roads or trains or, like me, get 2GB of internet at a business address shared between 5 users! Not to mention the state of the energy grid! I think we have more than enough to go at without a war!
  9. Brexit or Eurin?

    They are not the men to lead it, at all but probably will be elected! I actually don't see the departing of austerity as left or right wing now. Rather unavoidable. Where the money is spent will be the indicator. It is a reality that the current growth model tapped out in 08/09 and has been on life support since. You can't make the economy richer by more PCP car finance deals, ever higher national real estate prices and buying more plastic tat from the Far East. We are the most indebted consumer in the world believe it or not so we need to move on and quickly. The public sector doesn't have to run anything, it is required now for its unique ability to raise massive cash on the markets and to put it to work on potentially multi decade return ventures. Something the private sector can't do. Put hands to work in a productive capacity of building and improving, management of the resulting assets is inconsequential for now. Tangible investment in UK PLC is only thing we can do now.
  10. Brexit or Eurin?

    I actually agree. In a disinflation cycle (1980-today) of continually falling interest rates and massively expanding private debt then the consumer drives growth in the economy. A reflation cycle over the next 30 to 40 years has to now follow to correct the excesses and will be driven by massive public investment which will take the baton from tapped out consumers. It will take a significant deflationary event to start this phase transition though in my view, government will only act when forced to do so. Any crunch now and the government will have only one option to reflate the economy. Importing cheap tat from China is a finished economic model now.
  11. Sexual Harassment

    I've no real basis to make this claim apart from a hunch but I'd imagine that cases of abusive wives are under-reported by a significant multiple relative to cases of abusive husbands. I am not disputing a male can do more "damage" by the way, that clearly stands up. I know of someone hospitalised in a domestic and I'm fairly sure that wasn't reported! Men simply don't talk about these things, lesser still get laughed out of the police station!
  12. Sexual Harassment

    We're just infantalising the world around us now. The reality is in these type of interactions, the lines are often very thin between propositioning/flirting and "sexual harassment". You can see why the Red Pill movement is gathering pace when you look at the news these days. If I went back to my clubbing/uni days I could drag up case after case of being "sexually harrassed". (Much to my delight), I had girls putting their hands down my trousers on the dance floor without invitation ! And won't even talk about the behaviour of women on Hen Dos, they morph into something else... Xmas party last year, somebody wore a kilt...no guessing what a lot of women got up to...photos and all. The feminist movement won't be happy until men have to give women as wide a possible berth due to fear of public shaming, prosecution or losing all your assets and kids!
  13. Brexit or Eurin?

    Something to ponder...had Scotland done the same as Catalonia and declared themselves independent by way of an unconstitutional referendum, would the EU have treated the affair differently? Would impartiality have been observed? Evidently, they are clearly backing Spain's position, as you'd expect them to do so. However, I am almost certain in the UK scenario, that the EU would have disregarded whatever principle holds up presently for them and welcomed Sturgeon and Salmond in with open arms. Perhaps, I daresay, encouraging it and stoking division. Afterall, they had no hesistation in talking to a DEVOLVED administration relating to the frankly absurd position of RUK leaving the Single Market/Customs Union and Scotland remaining in. This is evidence enough of EU duplicitousness for me, as well as a derision of British sovereignty. Welcome others' take on it too?
  14. Half term blues.

    Sounds like I used to be. Used to work crazy hours, you're not thanked for it and you don't get them back. As the years pass by, mates are certainly harder to come by when they have kids and their own families, have to learn to make your own entertainment! Lucky if I see mine once a year!
  15. Brexit or Eurin?

    As always, scratching my head to what I can reply to that! Not sure I implied that but whatever.
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