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SillyBilly

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  1. Interest Rates - Mortgages

    Lots of talk of preparing for a "reflation" cycle as we end a period of almost 40 years of consistently falling inflation and interest rates. Ordinarily I'd have put the house on a deflationary bust and then reflation (i.e get a 5 year fix on expectation that rates will rapidly increase) but the rules have changed. I'm personally betting on the Japanese model which I see as the only example to follow (although am in a minority I think), massive and repeated fiscal stimulus to maintain a perpetually stagnant economy with sustained low or zero interest rates. Almost indefinetly providing a downturn is met with more QE. Thus it'd be a 2 year fix at lowest possible rate and remortgage for me. May get a token rise to 0.5% again but I can honestly see the Fed tightening into a recession now and having to reverse when they should have done this in 2012. Be brave for BoE to ignore that. Btw if rates do move they will move quick, not planned step changes. Interest rates don't move up steadily and go down steadily, central banks just react like the rest of the market does. We will be blindsided as always.
  2. Brexit or Eurin?

    Yes, the direction of travel is clearly federalisation by the back door, piece-by-piece. It is a con to suggest anything but in my opinion. The only notable thing these days is the EU bods barely disguise it anymore. Still the likes of Clegg calls out anybody pointing out an EU army is being planned as peddling lies and mistruths...Does Juncker need to write the plans in his own blood?
  3. Anyone ever had hypnotherapy?

    Tried it for insomnia and didn't really do much for me, was very relaxing in itself though so I enjoyed it! Can't see Serotonin helping for heights either, I've had some mild success with it for insomnia with the positive side effect of lifting mood as well (perhaps placebo though if I'm honest). I suffer with terrible vertigo too so you're not alone. I last went to GoApe to try and exercise some "mind over matter", climbed the first tree (perhaps no more than 12ft off ground) and my legs gave way. Straight back down after that. Time before that I tired to conquer it by walking over the Royal Gorge Bridge in Colorado City (google it if you don't know it, a tad ambitious I think!), I honestly nearly passed out. I have never sweated so much in my life, legs like jelly, head facing to the sky to avoid looking down, talking to myself...must've been a right scene for onlookers. I can't go anywhere near the barriers in shopping centres or the likes either. It really can be a nightmare. I am beginning to learn to live with it now though, exposure to the fear doesn't seem to help in my case!
  4. Brexit or Eurin?

    No. Most of this lot didn't give a damn when they signed away our governance to the faceless European Commission in Brussels, and now they're terrified of the acts of a DEMOCRACTICALLY elected minority government...gimme a break for gods sake. Just read: "The European Communities Act 1972 (ECA) allows EU specified instruments to become part of UK law without the need for separate enactment of each and every EU instrument. Section 2(1) of the ECA gives the statutory authority for Treaty provisions and directly applicable secondary legislation (e.g. regulations) automatically to have legal effect in UK domestic law without further enactment: All such rights, powers, liabilities, obligations and restrictions from time to time created or arising by or under the Treaties, and all such remedies and procedures from time to time provided for by or under the Treaties, as in accordance with the Treaties are without further enactment to be given legal effect or used in the United Kingdom shall be recognised and available in law, and be enforced, allowed and followed accordingly; and the expression "enforceable Community right" and similar expressions" The exact mechanisms by which this law will act is by way of the exact same mechanisms by which the European Union has replaced British law. It is called leaving... In 2022 or sooner another UK government can reverse the lot if that is what the British people want. Labour stoking a constitutional crisis in lieu of actually providing opposition is all this is. Sadly, expected nothing less.
  5. London Prices

    Yep tis expensive, I drink in Copenhagen when I work in Malmo, only a short train ride over into Sweden. Can easily be paying £7.50 a pint there. However, Sweden edges it for me, 60SEK-90SEK is about standard which works out at around £6-£8.70 and often at the higher end of the range anywhere decent. £4.50 a pint at my local in hampshire, I take full advantage when I'm up in the Midlands/North.
  6. A lifetime ban is extreme virtue signalling but wouldn't expect much less these days. Its entirely possible that you could be sat next to someone at a game that was involved in a double homicide 30 years ago and breezes straight into PP. Who would you rather sit next to? Or shall we prevent anyone with any caution, conviction, misdemeanour or trolling incident ever stepping foot inside the ground? Jeez, I am glad some of you guys don't sit on juries. The kid has been fronted to the whole country, he will learn a very harsh lesson from that alone.
  7. Mayweather v McGregor

    As the commentator just said on Sky, if you take away the fact Conor came from MMA then the fight wasn't competitive at all and probably disappointing. Floyd allowed Conor to tire himself out rounds 1-2 and then picked him apart bit-by-bit.
  8. Mayweather v McGregor

    I think the ref jumped in a little too early for the TO, gives Conor a little bit of credit which he doesn't deserve. His comments after were a little deluded that he could recover and the legs were tired. Floyd was picking his punches, ref should have let him put Conor on the canvas.
  9. Taxes - is there a happy medium?

    Agreed. I recently recruited someone with a 1st class honours in Chemistry (very bright lady) straight from uni to do quite a basic QC tech role and I was relieved when she handed her notice in at 8 months. She needed a lot of instruction and hand holding. The replacement is a guy 2-3 years older but with over 5 years experience in the role, the difference is night and day. That little bit of worldly experience of knowing what to do and when to do it has been invaluable to me and I have really valued his contribution. He has also brought a lot of ideas over with him from his previous employers. There will always be demand for experience over qualifications.
  10. Taxes - is there a happy medium?

    How many graduate with any skill in technology or science? You're crediting university with upskilling the workforce whereas I really think your post alludes to the more accurate reality of creating needless demand for £50k debts to attain similar jobs as before. And then the "no degree" contingent struggling to compete to serve the cappuccinos. The normal bell curve of intelligence applies regardless of how long you sit someone in a classroom, most people aren't academic, that doesn't change. The new economy shouldn't need a conveyor belt of millions of grads, the technology is supposed to eliminate that need, a few hundred/thousand brainboxes should be enough to revolutionise existing industries.
  11. Taxes - is there a happy medium?

    You really have to look at that objectively. If I graduate tomorrow then the dataset starts tomorrow. I am graduating in a world where approaching 60% of my peers will have a degree, can I realistically expect to earn 85% more than non-graduates over a lifetime? The current facts are that I am more likely to be working a non-graduate job than a graduate job. This is the sort of blatant propaganda that pushes people into ever crazier debt, context is so important when looking at any figures. People in their 60s are included in this sample, when they graduated they were an educated elite taking the best jobs in the land. A lot has changed in a generation. That 85% was a premium awarded to a scarce resource, if the resouce becomes abundant, supply and demand economics tells you the value of it trends to 0.
  12. Taxes - is there a happy medium?

    University is selling debt to naive people for the most part these days. It is an industry in itself. Naive is not meant to be a criticism by the way either; rather an obvious state of affliction for most young people given a lack of experience - I was one once afterall so can speak with some authority. There seems to be a confirmation bias of its consequence as well, largely through the weight of sheer numbers going, peer pressure, pushy parents and politicians (puppeteered by the finance industry no doubt). It is almost blasphemous to question the model works these days so as to be accused of someone who would deprive others of some form of enlightment. The 50%+ target of Tony Blair for people going onto university was as crazy then as it is now. Look at the stats of the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development for proof - over half of all graduates are doing non-graduate jobs. And this discounts the fact that most jobs advertised as "graduate jobs" - including ones I have done in the past - could be done by trained monkeys. They are not graduate jobs by yersteryear standards. We've seen a debasement of education and jobs and not a "highly skilled" economy, nothing much of surprise there. And the elephant in the room is many graduates leave 16-17 years of education behind and remain unable to string a grammatically correct sentence together nor do basic maths. As for accessing education, the internet is a resouce like no other, it has certainly educated me in everything from how to tile a bathroom, change a clutch, refine a foreign language...I could go on. Being spoon fed education isn't a receipt for good minds.
  13. Taxes - is there a happy medium?

    I've just had a "promotion" at work, a fairly hollow acheivement considering I've been doing the job role for 18 months but there we go. The comical thing was a round robin e-mail from the MD went round the office before terms had even been discussed congratulating me on the position - I'd accepted in principle only! I am still, as yet, awaiting to see the package on offer and I suspect they could get a nasty surprise when they hear what I'm asking for. They can retract the offer publically for all I care. Tax affects middle and top middle earners far more than it does the poor and the rich. As soon as I surpassed the 40% tax bracket (particularly when I was paying student loans back), working harder and longer exposed itself to be a mugs game really, it makes increasingly poorer improvements to quality of life at great personal cost in time and mental health. Unless you get to be stupendously rich then as a middle to high earner you'll sacrifice your life at the altar of corporate whoredom for returns no corporation or high net worth individual would ever contemplate. I adopted the mantra of doing as little as possible for as much as possible a while back and its working incredibly well so far.
  14. (Confirmed) terrorist attack in Barcelona

    Isn't the partition of India within living memory for some? I thought civilisation waited at least 3 generations before repeating the same mistakes? Amazingly, many seem to still believe, contrary to all evidence, that Islam is combatible with other cultures/societies. Being tired of "racist" comments (aka criticism of a religion) on a thread like this is one thing, staring at tomorrow's reality while being advised to sing "kumbaya" louder is another.
  15. Confess your unpopular opinions

    Women are generally too bitchy/gossipy to make good managers.
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