Joe Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 unknowns injuries, suspensions, sales, take over middle of January will be clearer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoppo Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 50% chance as we are at the moment. Have we got three more wins and a couple of draws in us more than Reading, Peterborough and Barnsley before the end of the season? With the backs to the wall mentality and the fighting spirit that the lads have been showing recently I'm beginning to believe we can do it. If the squad is still together by the end of January with a couple of additions I reckon you'd struggle to get better than 2/1 or evens at any bookies. Squad breaks up in January 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnero Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 13 hours ago, Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster said: A many years viewer, but not a regular poster, for a while, but tonight's heroic efforts got me thinking about starting a thread about our perceived percentage chances of achieving survival in our division. Before tonight I'd have assessed our chances of survival at about 1-2%, despite 2 consecutive wins, although after tonight I'd upgrade that probability to 10%. I love maths, probabilities and percentages - the reality of an event happening, versus a blind-faith hopefulness of it happenning. After tonight, indulge me if you will, where do you put our percentage chances of survival? It would be interesting to update this thread on a match by match basis. Indulge the nerd in me, what do you think our percentage chance of survival is, as of today? As I said, I'll get the ball rolling at 10% - today. What's your assessment - in percentage terms of us pulling it off? No guffawing in the cheap seats. Skybet offering 9/2 so they have it at around an 18% chance. Seems a little high to me, I think your 10% is reasonable. Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldben Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, angieram said: I'd be very happy to finish above Burnley! Sorry I meant barnsley angieram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Tram Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 18 hours ago, Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster said: A many years viewer, but not a regular poster, for a while, but tonight's heroic efforts got me thinking about starting a thread about our perceived percentage chances of achieving survival in our division. Before tonight I'd have assessed our chances of survival at about 1-2%, despite 2 consecutive wins, although after tonight I'd upgrade that probability to 10%. I love maths, probabilities and percentages - the reality of an event happening, versus a blind-faith hopefulness of it happenning. After tonight, indulge me if you will, where do you put our percentage chances of survival? It would be interesting to update this thread on a match by match basis. Indulge the nerd in me, what do you think our percentage chance of survival is, as of today? As I said, I'll get the ball rolling at 10% - today. What's your assessment - in percentage terms of us pulling it off? No guffawing in the cheap seats. We could do it as a poll after each match, if people like that idea. There have been lots of responses! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Tram Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I think that we have a 55% chance of survival. More likely than unlikely! We are maintaining our form, and converting some matches that we'd expect to draw into wins. The other teams at the bottom are not maintaing their form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Maintain our first half of the season form puts us on about 40 points. Those above us maintain theirs well be 6 points shy I reckon. but if we get close then the pressure could effect results I reckon 50-50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phoenix Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Obviously too many imponderables to calculate a rational answer, but I'd say 35-40%. It looks grim just looking at the table as it is now, but our form so far this season is mid-table, as others have pointed out. On this basis we should be garnering about another 30 points. However, we had a rough patch, dropped a lot of silly points, but we do seem to have come together as a team more, the defence is quite tight, and we're blooding some talented youngsters. We could well pick up more points in the 2nd half of the season than the 1st. Also, what's to say other clubs won't be deducted points this season. Survival? Unlikely, but a close call, I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertRam Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Very close i reckon, expect Reading to pick up as they get more players back but not before we beat them Monday. Hull and Cardiff our best bet ( who have both been slowly heading South for the last 2 seasons) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van der MoodHoover Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 31/12/2021 at 05:52, DesertRam said: I would definitely have a gambol on that ? Gambol safely kids. When the fun stops.... angieram, jono, Yani P and 1 other 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mucker1884 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 If we win our live TV game tomorrow, I reckon we will have a 3.14159265359% chance of survival. Although some may see that as pi in the Sky! Patrick Rams, Ramrob, Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster and 5 others 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinhectoring Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 31/12/2021 at 17:15, Ken Tram said: I think that we have a 55% chance of survival. What are they putting in the water in Kent ? Ken Tram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jono Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 As I understand the history of these things, no team has overturned a 12 point deduction. Our deduction is 21 points virtually double any previous un achieved challenge. This should effectively confirm a zero percent chance on the evidence available. Yet, there are other numbers in play. 1) I suspect (correct me if I am wrong) our deduction and the task facing us has come earlier than any other team 2) Our team has an overly large contingent of youthful players. In the right circumstances they will improve their basic abilities way beyond what mature journeymen could hope to achieve. This is evidenced by recent form. Form may be temporary but if this 3 game blip continues then maybe that form becomes “class” They didn’t just play well .. they are good players .. There is a difference. 3) The fans home and away .. I have no doubt that they make a major contribution over and above ordinary fans .. The pictures and noise from Stoke were remarkable 4) other clubs may face deductions or administration that we don’t yet know about. I live in hope, but weighing everything right now, it’s a single figures chance Get a new owner in this month, without the loss of key players ? Then I’d raise it to the OP’s 10% 3 more straight wins ? and it’s Game on ! i-Ram and angieram 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gee SCREAMER !! Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 52 minutes ago, kevinhectoring said: What are they putting in the water in Kent ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinhectoring Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 31/12/2021 at 17:36, Phoenix said: the defence is quite tight, as a duck's ar$e Phoenix 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phoenix Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, kevinhectoring said: as a duck's ar$e On which subject, do you remember the gent's DA hairstyle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinhectoring Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Phoenix said: On which subject, do you remember the gent's DA hairstyle? aka the Pompadour, the elvis cut ? (it's a bit before my time. I was a teenager with a mullet I'm sad to say) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ram59 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Statistically, we are a fraction under 3 points short of Cardiff and Hull ATM which would suggest around a 5 or 6 point shortfall at the end of the season, if things continue as they done so far. A couple of extra wins or holding on to leads compared with the first half of the season, is what we need. When you think of the 17 points we have lost from winning positions, those 3 points shortfall seem to be quite achievable. jono 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo’s left foot Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Here is a coming home showing the points per game needed to get to 48 points at the end of the season, which should be enough to stay up. The recent run of 3 wins puts us bang on the line and we need to maintain 1.71 points per game, which is play off form! Its going to be a ride for sure. Mucker1884 and jono 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Durden Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Simmo’s left foot said: Here is a coming home showing the points per game needed to get to 48 points at the end of the season, which should be enough to stay up. The recent run of 3 wins puts us bang on the line and we need to maintain 1.71 points per game, which is play off form! Its going to be a ride for sure. 1.71 ppg is effectively a 55% win ratio from now until the end of the season which would beat the win record of any Derby manager in recent years, Clough, McClaren, Mackay you name them. jono 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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