Survival - a percentage evaluation thread.

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

20 minutes ago, Oldben said:

I think our next games a really important game if we can beat Reading who not to distant from us in the table and in the mix of the pack we are chasing.

I'm thinking we can overhaul Burnley and Peterborough. 

The Burnley fans must be unhappy they are finishing bottom, even after Derby got a 21 point deduction.

I'm wondering if we can put enough points together to get 20th place on the table and stay up.

 

Peterborough may be, Burnley 100% no.

 

[PistoldPete]

Any chance of points deduction for Brizzle?

[I know nuffin]

Looked out of range with 21 points off. Now we need to beat the teams above us and win 3 more than they do. Does not look so far away now 

[ColonelBlimp]

Very very low I would think, what do the bookies say? Ever met a poor one?

I would say we have an excellent chance of catching Barnsley and Peterborough but the rest? Very low probability, 5-10% max.

I like that Rooney is attempting to rotate players in and out so they don't get tired but I also can't see us keeping the form up through January/February.  Is our February collapse still a thing? 

[Gone]

The bookies have us at 9/2 to stay up. I have us at odds on, we’re staying up ?????

[NottsRammy]

I would say now its at 40% . 

But alot of things can change that quite quickly . 

I dont think a loss to reading is the end of the world as lets not forget they themselves are not where they are . I dont look at reading you have to look above at cardiff etc etc reading will get out of it . 

Alot of things can stop Derby quite quickly such as long term injuries to old players being asked to play alot of games . 

We have a nucleus of players that have now gone into siege mentality and boy are they doing well . But i still cant explain where they were in the first half of barnsley away . 

Most will welcome off the field being solved and it has to be but spare a thought that could actually send us down . Being taken over will make it possible for new deals and new players .These new players will find it hard to slip into the required mind set and pressure that is now on every game we play . To many in football just happy to take a wage the rams have along way to go and for me if they do it .It will be the finest thing i have ever witnessed in football and make no mistake it might even make a hollywood script as you have to admit its all there and its true . 

Come on you rammmmmms !!

[Rambam]

It’s a simple equation. The first 23 games we won 6 and drew 10. 
If in the final 23 games we can win 10 and draw 6, we will end on 43 points, with a much better goal difference than those around us. That requires borderline play off form. 
We got the first of those ten wins last night. 

Edited December 31, 2021 by Rambam

[Ramism]

I believe we will end above Peterborough and Barnsley it’s Hull/Cardiff we need to be looking at.
Trouble is we need to average around 1.6 points per game to end of season and Hull and Cardiff  0.6 to end of season. Recon Reading will be not be catchable realistically. Teams on 27/28 points would need to be even worse.

until it’s not possible I’ll still live in hope though. Shows what a tough task we’ve got

[Marriot Ram99]

7 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Before the season started and all this administration stuff, I thought we were relegation candidates. Because the Championship is much of a muchness this season, I reckon it will be 49 or 50 points to survive, so for our remaining 22 games that's about 1.8 points per game. Which is strong playoff form and saw us get autos one season IIRC.

Then, as we've reached year end without the administrators finding a buyer, and now entering the transfer window, I presume most of the squad will be sold or move on. 

Therefore I'd put our chances of surviving at around 1%. Play this season 100 times from this point onwards and we might survive as a Championship club once. Let's hope it's that season.

It's projected that 45/46 points should be enough, don't forget our Goal difference as well. Can't see us needing around 50 points. 

[Sparkle]

Previous seasons weren’t as skewed as this one us with minus 21 ReadingFC with minus 6 but are there anymore clubs likely to get done at the end of March ? That could have a huge reflection on the season and for me Cardiff seemed to be rather close to that possibility which is being made worse if the welsh government do not allow supporters into their stadium as their finances must be horrible.

[BramcoteRam84]

I think our chances have improved to 20%. Rooney and the lads are doing everything they can and I’m so proud of the way they’re going about it. We’ve given ourselves a chance going into January which is all we could ask. Now, as many predicted what happens off the field will be the major determining factor in whether or not we can pull it off.

My gut feeling is we will just fall short but for the first time in a while I’m starting to think we will take it to the last couple of games which would be truly remarkable. I’ll believe we can do it until it’s no longer possible.

COYR!!!!!???????

[JoetheRam]

If the bookies have us at 9/2 to stay up then that's implied probability of 18.2%.

I'd suggest they're being a bit optimistic to limit any losses/maintain their margins should it come off, so they probably think it's more like about 10% chance.

I think I'd go along with that.

Felt bloody good yesterday though.

[Rambam]

As I said, we 43 points. 
With points deductions it could be less. No need to worry about what other teams are doing individually. 

[Sussex Ram]

This is my kind of thread! To answer the question directly, I’d say a <5% chance now. If you’d have asked me before the Blackpool game, I’d have said <1%. These three wins have been massive for the club.

A lot of what the OP has said is exactly what I have said to myself.

It’s the hope that kills you. That is 100% true.

If we had beat Barnsley and P’Boro rather than lost, we’d now be third bottom and five points off Reading- which would have made Monday’s game even more massive than it is now. And in that hypothetical scenario, I would have our chance of survival at more like 25%- showing just how disappointing those two losses were, in hindsight.

Also, the % chance hangs heavily on the outcome of the administration process. My 5% is based on my opinion that a preferred bidder will be named early in January- generating a £5million non-refundable deposit, which removes the need for a “fire sale” to generate funds to keep us running for the rest of the season.

Also assuming we don’t add any players in January. Whilst reinforcements would be brilliant, my opinion is they would need to have the right attitude to be maximally effective. Knife between the teeth, backs against the wall, run themselves into the ground for the team etc.

Finally, I don’t think we can expect or rely upon any more points deductions for other teams this season. Surely there’s not enough time left for it to go through the EFL’s notoriously slow decision making process?

[RoyMac5]

1 hour ago, Sussex Ram said:

A lot of what the OP has said is exactly what I have said to myself.

It’s the hope that kills you. That is 100% true.

How odd, I always say 'it's the hope that keeps you going'. While there's life there's hope. #COYR

[Jimbo Ram]

It will depend largely on what happens with the takeover and transfer window. If we end up having to sell the likes of Lawrence, Knight, Bird etc it is pretty much game over. If we don’t and can keep the squad together we have a very small chance of pulling off a miracle ??

[angieram]

4 hours ago, Oldben said:

I think our next games a really important game if we can beat Reading who not to distant from us in the table and in the mix of the pack we are chasing.

I'm thinking we can overhaul Burnley and Peterborough. 

The Burnley fans must be unhappy they are finishing bottom, even after Derby got a 21 point deduction.

I'm wondering if we can put enough points together to get 20th place on the table and stay up.

 

I'd be very happy to finish above Burnley!

[Day]

The percentage as of this morning would still be fairly low, we're still yet to name a preferred bidder, Wycombe and Boro have yet to drop their claims.

Despite Rooney saying no player will be sold without his approval, if the above rumbles on towards deadline day, we could easily see players leave with financial decisions made above his head which could cause serious unrest.

I'm an optimistic as they come, but as I say, the percentage has to be fairly low until we see some movement off the field.

By the end of next month, we'll be in a better position to see just how possible the impossible is.

[vonwright]

Probably around 10 per cent for me, but that's incredible given where we were a few weeks ago.

We really need to keep this run going, keep the squad together, and keep this attitude up.

Did a quick projection based on nothing more than current PPG and the end-of-season table looks like this (with points rounded) 

Bristol City 52

Reading 50

Hull 46

Cardiff 44

Derby 38

Peterborough 38

Barnsley 27

We definitely need our second half-season to be significantly better than our first, but so far so good. It's possible, just a shame there aren't more bad teams to aim at this year.

Edited December 31, 2021 by vonwright

[Coneheadjohn]

25% as long as we keep the team together.

If we keep Jags and Curtis fit who knows.

Bristol,Cardiff or Reading to go would be ok but not as good as Boro not getting top 6.