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Everything posted by Albert

  1. This point about mutations is just people mixing up ideas. Mutations tend with numbers infected, and vaccinating people reduces the overall number of expected infections, hence reducing the likelihood of further mutations. Some people are confusing this with the idea that using antibiotics leading to antibiotic resistant bacteria, which is true, but the situation is more complicated. The biggest risk with antibiotic resistant bacteria is widespread use of antibiotics, while not using them effectively to drive the number of bacteria overall down. Examples of such issues are people only taking part of their course of antibiotics, or blanket giving antibiotics. The big risk for more variants of concern is if you open up too soon, and allow uncontrolled spread through the community, as having more infected people means that there's greater risk of new variants appearing.
  2. AZ is not recommended for under 60s, as opposed to banned. The current position in Australia is anyone over 18 can have it, but they need to speak with their GP first. Plenty of people under 60 are getting the AZ vaccine at the moment. The interesting one with NSW right now is it's exactly the concerns I raised on here months back. The Federal Government has been appalling pandemic long for Australia, and the vaccine rollout is just par for the course. The states handled things well individually, for the most part, but NSW has been a bit lucky throughout, and usually slow to clear outbreaks. The federal government, if anything, actively opposed much of the good work the states were doing, including actually supporting a legal challenge against WA's systems that were keeping them at zero. The issue for NSW is that they had some super spreader events, and still haven't fully locked down, instead being in a 'lockdown', as politically they turned their voting base against full lockdowns. Elsewhere, things are pretty under control, and honestly, have been close to normal for the last 12 months. The week I've spent in lockdown in the last 12 months has been worth of the other 51 of pretty much normal. Apart from NSW, which are in trouble of their own making, things are pretty stable here overall, though NSW is now seeding new outbreaks, like Victoria's new one, and the scare here in SA.
  3. The issue with the vaccine rollout is that it's been done federally, while the good work controlling the virus was on a state level. Broadly speaking, Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia have done very well for themselves. Victoria, after lockdown hesitancy before their second wave, have done exceptionally despite the federal government's best efforts, while New South Wales have lived dangerously, but before now done okay as they've tended to drop the political theatre and lockdown when things spiral out of control. Funnily enough, the Federal Government was actually against the strategy adopted at state level, and have helped others campaign against it, such as Clive Palmer v WA. The federal approach, sadly, is essentially to claim credit for the States good work, while sitting on their hands otherwise. This has included, in no particular order: - Failing to develop a long term strategy for quarantine, instead relying on 'medihotels', which have been pretty much universally the source of leaks that have lead to more outbreaks. - Failing to secure enough doses of the vaccines. - Turning down a deal with Pfizer which would have secured enough vaccines last year. - Not dealing with the issues around aged care at all, despite all the investigations being pretty clear about what needed to be done. They've tried to palm off a lot of the issues around the vaccine rollout to the states, and with that failing, they've cooked up a 'vaccine hesitancy' story with their Murdoch mates. The reality on the ground though is that there just isn't the supply. Their latest galaxy brain action at the top is to first recommend the AstraZeneca vaccine to only over 60s, then when these outbreaks started suggest that under 60s can take it, but they should talk to their GP first. They pretty much actively pushed for more vaccine hesitancy to distract from their ballsup in not accepting the offer from Pfizer last year, and now, want to palm blame off to the individual instead. It sells well in the Murdoch press though, so I suspect they'll get away with this. Honestly, we'd have been better off with Scomo pulling another Hawaii moment and just leaving the vaccine procurement and rollout to the states. Everything his government has touched in this pandemic has been a disaster unfortunately. That all said, the states have kept things under control, and honestly, where I am, things really aren't that different from 2019 this year.
  4. The worry is that this is exactly the pattern of the last wave. Cases rise first, followed by hospitalisations, then deaths. The cases are rising, and we're seeing the beginning of rising hospitalisations as well. The hope is that enough people are vaccinated to alleviate that, but the delta variant is concerning, and if the vaccines have been effective, then we shouldn't be seeing the rising hospitalisations. A worrying few weeks are ahead.
  5. Why are you using a chart from last August? I'd have thought by now you'd have learnt the basics of this discussion. Lockdowns are a means of control of infection rates, they're not a response to deaths, they're a means of preventing them. Countries that have used them effectively use them in short sharp bursts. For example, the state where I am, we've been in lockdown less than a week in the last year, and have had no Covid deaths in that time at all. The lockdowns come when there is any community transmission as a means of getting on top of the outbreak. The issue the UK has had is that due to political pressure against actually dealing with the situation properly, lockdowns have largely been used as a reactionary measure, not a proactive one, and using them for this purpose leads to long rolling lockdowns, which while effecting, are no where near as effective as the short proactive ones. It's also interesting that this 'flu has claimed x deaths' line has come back from you. For one, the flu and pneumonia combined, which is quite constellation of diseases, has not claimed more than 35k lives in the UK in over 20 years. Covid-19, without making it through the entire population, has claimed over 120k, likely over 150k, in 18 months. That there is the point of controls, boosters, etc. The disease is on another scale to other viruses that cause things like pneumonia. The expectation would be that if a variant of Covid-19 got out of control again, there would be lockdowns. A set of seasonal diseases, running through the whole population killing 25-35k would not lead to lockdowns, because it's doing so in a way that burns itself out, while Covid-19 is not, as well and truly demonstrated by this point.
  6. Albert

    EFL appeal

    For all the many things that Mel's regime have made a mess of, ironically, the one which will have the most direct consequences, actually seems to be the one where their ducks were in order. The truly bizarre part of it all is that the amortisation policy used is itself is a double edged sword. The start and end points are the same, it's just how it gets there that are different. Regardless of final outcome, however, the EFL have better PR overall, and given the bumbling nature of Mel's regime otherwise, Derby will come off looking bad regardless of the outcome.
  7. Albert

    EFL appeal

    There is so much about this that doesn't pass the sniff test, the big ones being Alan Nixon's name being attached, and the notion that a decision could already be made but 'kept secret'. Edit: Also, they were only appealing the lesser charge, which doesn't have precedent for a large points deduction to my understanding.
  8. What a second half. They fought for it, and ultimately, it was enough. A huge offseason ahead though. A lot of work to do for next season not to be a repeat.
  9. Rotherham are down, it's now just us v Wednesday to decide. This is too much.
  10. Goal for Cardiff, there is some hope!
  12. Oh dear, he was offside too. Nothing can be done about it now.
  13. Rotherham lead. We're in the relegation places right now.
  14. It's a tough one with it all, and the real question to be answered this summer is just how much of the outward appearance of the club under Mel has been a thin veneer. If we can survive financially, a hard reset in League 1 might actually be beneficial long term, particularly culturally. What I fear is we get relegated, and nothing is learned from the experience, or it's seen as a chance to give Rooney a go with less pressure.
  15. Good thing we won't be playing at this level much longer then.
  16. Still here, just not a lot to be bothered commenting about; I am by and large a lurker on here. The UK's vaccine rollout has been very competent, and while there's still some nutty stuff being spread about, we've all heard it before. I could go on about the comedy of errors that is Australia's vaccine rollout, emphasising my point that the Australian federal government has handled the crisis here pretty poorly, but lucked out on the states actually doing something, but it's not really relevant for this forum.
  17. As noted, I feel the UK could have done far better out of all this, particularly around supporting those impacted most by the restrictions. That's the biggest tragedy out of all of this. The people who are paying for the errors in not following advice earlier are the very ones the government has refused to support through this.
  18. The point is more about the balance, getting maximum benefit for least harm and all of that. While I don't actually disagree with the sentiment here that the UK's implementation of rules and policies has been an omnishambles, it did successfully slow and turn around infection rates on multiple occasions. I find it fascinating that everyone on here seems to think other groups have found this time easier than themselves. Stocks the spread of the virus from other countries, which helps efforts to contain it in the UK. This is particularly important with the risks posed of the new strains.
  19. While I agree with the central idea here, @Archied does indeed press the idea that there's something more sinister behind the lockdowns. Personally, I wouldn't attribute to malice what is better explained by incompetence. Australia gave up on pretending workplaces, etc were secure a long time ago. Now the aim is to record down who has gone to which public places when, and do contact tracing. This allows outbreaks to be rapidly contained by ringfencing. This has worked remarkably well, despite some breaches of hotel quarantine, usually staff catching the disease and bringing it home. The UK really should be doing a lot more to support those impacted by the lockdown, but I suspect the shear scale of it has left them in a position of feeling that it's just not possible anymore. Another consequence of their failed response.
  20. Growing up, I had a friend who despised hospitals. Their reason? When a relative of theirs went to hospital, they usually didn't come back. Why was this? Well, they had a truly massive extended family, and culturally, they tended not to go to the doctor until they were very seriously ill. Now, a few of their relatives thought this way too, which is why they didn't go and see a doctor until things had gotten very bad for them, usually going to casualty as opposed to their GP. It wasn't until that friend was in their 20s that it really clicked to them that they should probably see a doctor before they get to that state. Interestingly, that's how you seem to picture lockdowns. Lockdowns hurt, but done properly things get better, and at the very worst, they should become somewhat stable. The issue the UK has had is that they kept exiting lockdowns early, with little to no exit strategy, leading long term to this repeating trend of cases ballooning before they bothered to institute lockdowns. Ultimately, yeah, lives and livelihoods have been lost as a result. The reason for that was always the ballooning case numbers and the knock on impacts of that. As was discussed on here prior to the second wave, it's better for the UK to go hard and early, like countries that have been living fairly normally through these times. The UK didn't though, and waited until things had already spiraled out of control. This contributed to the rise of the new variant, which allowed things to spiral further, requiring long term serious restrictions. Ultimately, the UK fearing the lockdown has ended up condemning people to a longer, harsher, one. Sometimes, you've just got to see the doctor before things get out of hand.
  21. If you're sick of people calling you out for laughing at deaths, maybe stop laughing at deaths. Just a thought. I'm not sure where you've gotten this 'understand everything in the universe better than anybody else with ease' line from. It seems you take someone actually doing some research into points before wildly posting random hottakes to mean someone feels they're somehow better. I don't, and personally, I think arguments should stand apart from who has written them. Someone who knows better can make an appallingly weak argument, someone who doesn't, with proper research, can make a good argument. The point is, however, you evaluate an argument based on the evidence presented, and evidence available elsewhere, not based on who you feel is making it.
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