Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 (edited) A many years viewer, but not a regular poster, for a while, but tonight's heroic efforts got me thinking about starting a thread about our perceived percentage chances of achieving survival in our division. Before tonight I'd have assessed our chances of survival at about 1-2%, despite 2 consecutive wins, although after tonight I'd upgrade that probability to 10%. I love maths, probabilities and percentages - the reality of an event happening, versus a blind-faith hopefulness of it happenning. After tonight, indulge me if you will, where do you put our percentage chances of survival? It would be interesting to update this thread on a match by match basis. Indulge the nerd in me, what do you think our percentage chance of survival is, as of today? As I said, I'll get the ball rolling at 10% - today. What's your assessment - in percentage terms of us pulling it off? No guffawing in the cheap seats. Edited December 30, 2021 by Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster Andicis and DesertRam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i-Ram Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 We will stay up. 110% hintonsboots, TigerTedd, adzy and 11 others 1 2 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andicis Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 You're more optimistic than me! It's a great result tonight, thing is that we have to maintain promotion form for the rest of the season to stand a chance, and overall I think we'll just fall short. I'd give us a 3% chance of survival. Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strawhillram Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 6.66% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 (edited) Just an afterthought. Of course, so much will depend if we can resolve the ownership issue in January. If we enter into a fire-sale, we've no chance, but if someone resolves it quickly and pumps in say, 5 to 10 million in, what admittedly would be a huge gamble, the chances of us surviving could bump up to 20%-30% +. Edited December 30, 2021 by Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster Kathcairns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSD Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Given how poor the relegation rivals are, I think 45 points will be enough for safety this season. 10 wins from 22, a few more draws. If we can bring in reinforcements I'd say 50% Rammy03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeedsRam1999 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 (edited) 5% chance. To nail survival you need another 40 points from 22 games remaining. We need just under 2 points per game to hit that total (1.81 to be precise). The last 7 games we have over 2 points per game and we have played some of the toughest teams in the league. We have most of the teams around us to play at home and we have made Pride Park a relative fortress this season. In my heart I believe we will do it. COYR Edited December 30, 2021 by LeedsRam1999 Poor grammar Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster and Kathcairns 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Durden Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 The square root of bugger all adzy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hintonsboots Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 22.23%. Bristol City getting 9 points deducted would make it interesting, very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IslandExile Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 If preferred bidder named soon and we hold onto the players Rooney wants to keep: 8% Otherwise: 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 We were always staying up..it was never in doubt as long as the ownership is sorted..I would say roughly 83.68% certain.. kevinhectoring and Patrick Rams 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sage Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 (edited) Today....15% in my heart 5% mathematically Edited December 30, 2021 by sage kevinhectoring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Ram Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I am pushing up towards 7% after tonight. We really need Brizzle to be deducted 6 points, that would help ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 I'm loving the exactitude of certain member's assessments. This is the deep-thought analyses I enjoy. ? Andicis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HonitonRam Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I would say alot of teams around us will be getting concerned 30% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sage Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 The next game is massive. Could be 8 or 14 points away from safety. If we win the EFL are going to panic and think of something else we have done wrong. Patrick Rams, angieram and Andicis 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 22 minutes ago, StrawHillRam said: 6.66% That's very precise. though I couldn't argue with that analysis. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richgee1976 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, i-Ram said: We will stay up. 110% Agreed! 3 points against Reading and it'll be 120%! i-Ram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 (edited) 34 minutes ago, i-Ram said: We will stay up. 110% I don't know what the odds are, but if you're that confident, put the mortgage and the pension fund on it. You'll either end up retiring in the Bahamas next year - or in a bedsit on Hartington St. ? Edited December 30, 2021 by Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster i-Ram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ram1988 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, sage said: The next game is massive. Could be 8 or 14 points away from safety. If we win the EFL are going to panic and think of something else we have done wrong. A win against Reading would be massive. 8 points behind with a better goal difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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