Survival - a percentage evaluation thread.

[Simmo’s left foot]

Yes, certainly a challenge, let’s see how the next 5 games take us, once we drop below that line it will be very difficult to recover.

[Tyler Durden]

4 minutes ago, Simmo’s left foot said:

Yes, certainly a challenge, let’s see how the next 5 games take us, once we drop below that line it will be very difficult to recover.

If we drop below the line it will mean that the win % increases from 55% which is already a higher target then any post war Derby manager has achieved. 

Sir Alex Ferguson had a win % of nearly 60% whilst at Man Utd so that gives you an idea of the form we'd have to replicate. 

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

4 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

If we drop below the line it will mean that the win % increases from 55% which is already a higher target then any post war Derby manager has achieved. 

Sir Alex Ferguson had a win % of nearly 60% whilst at Man Utd so that gives you an idea of the form we'd have to replicate. 

Fortunately, we are playing in without doubt the most dreck season of football I've seen this league produce .  Every team is beatable and is equally poor and decent on a given day, that includes us if there not on it from the get go.  

[Ken Tram]

3 hours ago, Simmo’s left foot said:

Here is a coming home showing the points per game needed to get to 48 points at the end of the season, which should be enough to stay up. The recent run of 3 wins puts us bang on the line and we need to maintain 1.71 points per game, which is play off form! Its going to be a ride for sure.

I think a 44 point target is the most recent reasonable target based on Cardiff's form so far this season - which will reduce your PPG a bit.

But take a look at the "convert 1 in 3 draws thread". Looking it that way, the uplift that we need compared with what we've achieved so far isn't impossible at all.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Ken Tram

[kevinhectoring]

3 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

1.71 ppg is effectively a 55% win ratio from now until the end of the season which would beat the win record of any Derby manager in recent years, Clough, McClaren, Mackay you name them. 

I’m really not good with numbers but is this right? How does it take into account games we draw? ( Sorry if that’s a very stupid question )

[Ken Tram]

3 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

1.71 ppg is effectively a 55% win ratio from now until the end of the season which would beat the win record of any Derby manager in recent years, Clough, McClaren, Mackay you name them. 

It isn't a 55% win ratio!

If we win 15, draw 20, lose 11, we'll have 65 points. Less 21 is 44, which is what Cardiff are on track to finish 21st with, but we'll have a better goal difference.

We are currently on: won 7 drawn 10, lost 7. So, a remaining successful season could be 8 more wins, 10 more draws, and 4 more losses = 8:10:4. (Or 9:7:6, 10:4:8, 11:1:10, 7:13:2)

That is a win rate of 8÷22=36%.

[The range of combination of results puts the win rate needed at between 32% and 50%, but 36% seems to be the most achievable to me.]

So, I think that's a win rate of 36%, and not 55%.

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Ken Tram

[Ken Tram]

I wouldn't mind a win rate of 55%!

It matches my estimate of 55% for the likelihood of Derby surviving.

My % may go up and down, as the season progresses, but I should get a stronger sense of the % likelihood as the season tightens it's grip towards May.

[I'm distracting myself!]

[Tyler Durden]

22 games left have assumed we need 47 points to survive which means we need 37 points from 22 games or 1.7 ppg rounding up.

So if we won 12 of those games and drew one that would give us those 37 points which would be 12 wins out of 22 games = 55%.

Of course there are other permutations to this but this is the most simplistic one, for example if we only won ten games we would then have to draw 7 other games meaning only 5 defeats all season or if we only won 8 games then effectively we could not lose in the remaining ones. 

So 12 wins out of 22 and it doesn't matter what we do in the remaining 9 games as long as we draw one. 

 

[Ghost of Clough]

3 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

for example if we only won ten games we would then have to draw 7 other games meaning only 5 defeats all season

Not far off the first half of the season then.

7W, 10D, 7L over 24 games.

To become 10W, 7D, 5L over 22 games.

[Yani P]

We just need to keep chipping away..in reality the current target is tracking at 46 points...if you spread the deduction out across the season we are at 20 points..so right in the mix..

[Tyler Durden]

42 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Not far off the first half of the season then.

7W, 10D, 7L over 24 games.

To become 10W, 7D, 5L over 22 games.

Upto now we're averaging 1.3 ppg and we would need 1.7 ppg from the remaining 22 matches which would require an improvement of nearly a third (31%). 

[Rich84]

Doesn't matter what the ppg requirement is, we just need to beat the teams around us (at least not lose to them) and continue to better their results in every chunk of 5 or 6 games to keep chipping away.

If the 21 point deduction is spread evenly over the season and both ourselves and those we are chasing match the 1st half of the season we require to convert 2 defeats or draws into wins to be out of the bottom 3, I'm sure we can all look at the results so far and see where that's possible, after all, we have the worst record of losing points from winning/drawing positions (-17), and several of those were very early season, Jagielka not playing/match fit, no Knight, no CKR, restrictions on who we could use etc etc. Bielik to come back.

We are in a much better position on the pitch than we were for the 1st quarter of the season so it is perfectly possible to get the extra points.

[jono]

What I want to see is how quickly (if at all) we can get in to the relegation zone proper - rather than the sin bin we are in now. Once we are within 4-6 points of safety, if we have a handful of games remaining it gets interesting. 
 

We are on a high after 3 wins. It’s so hard to be rational, but If that becomes 6 wins we will be in a “normal” relegation scrap .. buts it’s a big if. Can we do it ? What happens if 2 or 3 key players leave ? Have we got another kick in the guts coming or not ? 

[ram59]

Up to 20.5 points now, based on -.5 for a defeat, +.5 for a draw and +2.5 for a win this season. That's, in effect 2.5 points from safety but having played a game more.

[ck-]

Win 2, draw 1, lose 1 is 50% win ratio and 1.75 points a game. So it absolutely isn’t necessary to have a 55% win ratio to get 1.7 points a game. 
 

looking at our recent form in points per game

Last 10 : 1.5

Last 8 :  1.75

Last 6 : 1.67

Last 4 :  2.5

The trajectory is broadly upward, albeit with no real pressure.

If we go with 1.7points per game, that’s 46 points rounded down from 46.7.

Be interesting to see how it goes for the next 4 games!!!

[Bald Eagle's Barmy Army]

Do I need a science degree to read this topic?? 

[Leicester Ram]

2 minutes ago, Bald Eagle's Barmy Army said:

Do I need a science degree to read this topic?? 

A science degree

[Bob The Badger]

On 30/12/2021 at 22:47, hintonsboots said:

22.23%.
Bristol City getting 9 points deducted would make it interesting, very interesting.

If that happens just look at my face, look at my face.

At the moment < 5% I'd say.

[jimbobram]

On 30/12/2021 at 22:47, hintonsboots said:

22.23%.
Bristol City getting 9 points deducted would make it interesting, very interesting.

arent bristol just within their limit? also by the way the efl go, their points will  be taken off in  5 years time.  

[Yani P]

Yeah saw a programme where they said no chance they will get a deduction this season