Coronavirus

[uttoxram75]

2 hours ago, GboroRam said:

The good news (and I say that firmly tongue in cheek, in case anyone is about to have a go) is that the @uttoxram75's wonderful sofawatch thread may get some good posts in it again.

[ramit]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

It's easy to sit there and abuse people with alternative theories. 

Not saying I agree with what he was saying but are you able to scientifically disprove some of the things he says?

If so, which parts?

Hes correct that the roll out of 5G continues regardless? Are these essential key workers?

i suspect Icke may be what is called controlled opposition.  Perhaps 5G is a major health concern for the public.  What better way to shut up people holding that view than to make outrageous claims about it being the real Corona? 

[Rev]

59 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Hancock saying peak expected in next few weeks.

Am I missing something here?

Been in lockdown for 2 weeks now, incubation period up to 14 days but expected to be about 7 days.

Why would the peak still be a few weeks off?

A doctor (Sarah Jarvis) on the radio said it's dormant for the first 2 weeks, causes mild to moderate symptoms for a week, then those who haven't shaken it off and continue to worsen tend to spend a week in hospital before dying.

As for your earlier question, I'll look at it later when I've had a beer or two!

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

Hancock saying peak expected in next few weeks.

Am I missing something here?

Been in lockdown for 2 weeks now, incubation period up to 14 days but expected to be about 7 days.

Why would the peak still be a few weeks off?

I was wondering the same ( i guess we're all secretly trying to fathom when life might start to move back towards "normal")

My workings-out are that they say (up to) 14 days incubation between infection and symptoms, and infection is only possible when symptoms are on display (ie via coughing)

So people who had already caught it prior to lockdown should now be displaying symptoms  -which means that all those they are locked down with, are also high risk of catching it, but they might not show symptoms for another 14 days

So in theory - 4 weeks of lockdown should be the point at which the virus starts to have markedly fewer onward transmission options?

 

 

[BaaLocks]

53 minutes ago, alexxxxx said:

Confuses me too. Surely infections should be slowing. Deaths probably continue to increase due to a lag but I don't understand why it doesnt slow. I mean the evidence is there that it isn't because Spain and Italy are only just slowing down but I don't understand it. 

Because you don't die on day one and also because even with us all being indoors there will still be infection spread now amongst those that have it (NHS workers) who are highly contagious. Plus, if others follow Matt Hancock's lead and are out and about only seven days after contagion (not 14 as recommended by the WHO) I suspect we will see more and more unnecessary cases in our hospitals. 

[JoetheRam]

16 minutes ago, reverendo de duivel said:

A doctor (Sarah Jarvis) on the radio said it's dormant for the first 2 weeks, causes mild to moderate symptoms for a week, then those who haven't shaken it off and continue to worsen tend to spend a week in hospital before dying.

As for your earlier question, I'll look at it later when I've had a beer or two!

Was just going to say more or less the same.

Takes up to 14 days to show symptoms.

We went into lockdown on 23rd March, so assuming you caught the virus on the last day before lockdown then you may only start showing symptoms this coming Sunday.

You'll then have possibly 7 days of symptoms, which you may shake off (hopefully). Or your condition will worsen over the next 7 days. Assuming you are admitted to hospital on the 7th of those days, you may then have 2, 3, even 4 weeks of fighting the infection off before you either get better or succumb. So... even assuming best case scenario and no one has contracted the virus since 23rd March, we're still looking at the end of April before the last person infected before lockdown potentially dies. Obviously some people will have picked the virus up before lockdown who are still in hospital. Unfortunately some of them will die over the next two weeks or so and that will probably (hopefully) be the "peak".

Then there's the people who've still been out and about, contracting it at the supermarkets etc. to add in on top of those. But if social distancing works 100% the numbers of deaths should start to subside by the end of April, but with the likelihood being it doesn't, the curve probably won't start to drop off until middle/end of May sometime - if lockdown is having an effect.

[King Kevin]

2 hours ago, Van Cone De Head said:

Might have a shandy.

Get pissed mate you deserve it.

[RoyMac5]

2 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

...But if social distancing works 100% the numbers of deaths should start to subside by the end of April, but with the likelihood being it doesn't, the curve probably won't start to drop off until middle/end of May sometime - if lockdown is having an effect.

So why are things quite some distance in the future being cancelled? When do you think we'll get out?

[alexxxxx]

6 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

Because you don't die on day one and also because even with us all being indoors there will still be infection spread now amongst those that have it (NHS workers) who are highly contagious. Plus, if others follow Matt Hancock's lead and are out and about only seven days after contagion (not 14 as recommended by the WHO) I suspect we will see more and more unnecessary cases in our hospitals. 

Well yes I appreciate that, I just didn't realise how long people suffer with the virus. 

[Van der MoodHoover]

2 hours ago, Van Cone De Head said:

Noticeable how much busier it is today at work and on the roads.

I can see an issue developing if we get warm weather.

A few ‘interesting‘arguments amongst customers about what entails essential shopping.

It’s not my place to tell someone what’s essential or not.

Intervened yesterday on someone taking issue with a lady for buying a large gazebo, it was for Barnsley Hospital.

I forgot to mention,first day off tomorrow together for myself and the good lady cone in a month,other than hospital.

Might have a shandy.

No and i fear some are expecting workers to act as some sort of de facto extension of the police which is completely unfair.

Hope you have a well deserved break - forecast 20c down here on Sunday and wall to wall sunshine so i suspect that will challenge social distancing!

[GboroRam]

6 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

So why are things quite some distance in the future being cancelled? When do you think we'll get out?

I guess all that preparation work that goes in months beforehand is being disrupted - and there's the risk of investing time and money into an event that may still be disrupted months later, if the problems continue past the expected date it should hopefully be resolved.

[GboroRam]

2 hours ago, Van Cone De Head said:

Noticeable how much busier it is today at work and on the roads.

I can see an issue developing if we get warm weather.

A few ‘interesting‘arguments amongst customers about what entails essential shopping.

It’s not my place to tell someone what’s essential or not.

Intervened yesterday on someone taking issue with a lady for buying a large gazebo, it was for Barnsley Hospital.

I forgot to mention,first day off tomorrow together for myself and the good lady cone in a month,other than hospital.

Might have a shandy.

It's a tough one. I'm beginning to think I need to buy something to entertain the kids. Being cooped up in the garden for months will affect their mental health. I mean I can understand someone wanting to buy a gazebo if it means you can give the family another few options on stuff to do. We are going to quickly turn on each other through boredom. I'm feeling it now, and it's only been a couple of weeks. If we're supposed to sit this out for 6 months, who can blame anyone wanting to buy a paddling pool or a garden table and chair set?

[maxjam]

21 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

I was wondering the same ( i guess we're all secretly trying to fathom when life might start to move back towards "normal")

My workings-out are that they say (up to) 14 days incubation between infection and symptoms, and infection is only possible when symptoms are on display (ie via coughing)

So people who had already caught it prior to lockdown should now be displaying symptoms  -which means that all those they are locked down with, are also high risk of catching it, but they might not show symptoms for another 14 days

So in theory - 4 weeks of lockdown should be the point at which the virus starts to have markedly fewer onward transmission options?

Yeah good point, I based my assumption on everyone in the house being ill/clean at the beginning of the lockdown.  

Assuming your household is totally clear now and you've been in virtual isolation for a fortnite and avoided as much contact with others as possible, the chances are you've avoided it for the time being.  The extra two weeks will be to catch the majority of those that infected others as the lockdown was being put in place (and then immediately ignored by some!)

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, secretsquirrel said:

'Maybe its just a bit of gentle fear mongering to keep everyone inside over the Easter break?  Keeping the majority of people indoors for an entire month will really help limit the spread I guess.'

 

Think its going to be a bit more than a month-Family in Aus have been told on TV by their PM these measures will be in place till at least october unless a virus is produced

Do you mean vaccine or test rather than "virus" in your final sentence?

I've just been reading his latest press conference and can't see any any mention of "at least October" . I'm sure it will be a lot longer than a month but, the though of current measures (in full) being maintained until October seems incredible and far longer than even at the epicentre. 

[B4ev6is]

I am getting fed up of this now and yet so called goverment doing what ever they like alright for them not follow tge rules borries johnson.

[secretsquirrel]

Sorry did mean vacinne

[RamNut]

35 minutes ago, reverendo de duivel said:

A doctor (Sarah Jarvis) on the radio said it's dormant for the first 2 weeks, causes mild to moderate symptoms for a week, then those who haven't shaken it off and continue to worsen tend to spend a week in hospital before dying.

As for your earlier question, I'll look at it later when I've had a beer or two!

Correct. And whilst infected they are also infecting immediate family etc triggering more cases. 

 

[WhiteHorseRam]

13 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

So why are things quite some distance in the future being cancelled? When do you think we'll get out?

The current measures are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed - which I interpret as there enough medical staff to keep the structure functioning and the seriously ill get a reasonable level of care and therefore a chance of survival.

The lock down is therefore just a holding action. Unless we can use testing/tracking or whatever to coral the virus, some form of lock down will have to stay in place until they crack a vaccine.

I heard on the radio the other day somebody say we are stuck with this until September. I think myself April and May are total write-offs and we shall see some 'un-locking' in June. If we go back to normal too soon, it will break out again, and with an exhausted NHS a second big hit could be worse.

[JoetheRam]

9 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

So why are things quite some distance in the future being cancelled? When do you think we'll get out?

That I guess is to err on the side of caution and take into account that the reduction in cases will potentially be slower than estimated.

My personal guess is Monday June 29th will be when lockdown is eased.  Not sure what shape that will take but rough timeline I think will be:

End of April - Peak Deaths reached

End of May - Death rate will decline, antibody tests will have started.

End of June - Antibody tests will have been widely done, anyone who has had the virus will be able to return to work, those who haven't will be advised to remain in lockdown for a further 2 weeks.

July - peak A&E admissions from alcohol poisoning/fighting.

This is all just my opinion based on 9 years working in the NHS and what the government is doing.

[RoyMac5]

1 minute ago, WhiteHorseRam said:

I heard on the radio the other day somebody say we are stuck with this until September. I think myself April and May are total write-offs and we shall see some 'un-locking' in June. If we go back to normal too soon, it will break out again, and with an exhausted NHS a second big hit could be worse.

I think that seems likely too. It's just the 'not knowing' how long your sentence is that makes things harder.