We can't finish lower than...

[Dimmu]

One way to look at this would be the history of this league.

Last season third team got 96 points but before that, the numbers were 89, 80, 60 (in 35 games), 88, and 87. That means the third place has lately been reached 1.66-1.85 points per game.

So, if we leave out the freakish seasons (last and Covid ones), the 2-point-per-game average Warne has been touting all season, seems a valid goal to reach the automatic place. This season is most likely no different.

Can we reach 92? Well, we are averaging exactly 2 points per game at the moment, so we certainly can.

Worth noting that Peterborough has the easiest run-in of the top 5 and Pompey has the hardest in the league. 

I remember posting a similar expectations-based post earlier where I expected Peterboro to do better than they did at the time and Stevenage to drop as their xG was all wrong. I can't be arsed to search what the situation was at the time, but Stevenage certainly has dropped since.

The automatic promotion battle will probably go to the wire, but the second place is ours to lose.

[Ghost of Clough]

5 wins from our final 7 will guarentee top 2 in my opinion. That would put us on 93 points, and means the teams behind us could only get away with drawing 1 game and winning the rest.

4 wins from our final 7 would be 90 points and would be touch and go. With each side only being able to lose 1 and draw 1.

[Mucker1884]

I just hope that whatever the outcome, (Auto preferred, obvs!) we don't need a result on the final day to achieve it.  😲

I want to sit and chill... even if that means the players are pissed up, and we witness a drab 0-0, as tradition dictates when playing at home to Carlisle last match.

 

Let's have none of this looking at other scores elsewhere with 'phone in one hand, whilst chewing off the fingernails of the other hand please... Pretty please!

🙏

  

[ramsbottom]

40 minutes ago, Mucker1884 said:

I just hope that whatever the outcome, (Auto preferred, obvs!) we don't need a result on the final day to achieve it.  😲

I want to sit and chill... even if that means the players are pissed up, and we witness a drab 0-0, as tradition dictates when playing at home to Carlisle last match.

 

Let's have none of this looking at other scores elsewhere with 'phone in one hand, whilst chewing off the fingernails of the other hand please... Pretty please!

🙏

  

Especially as my O2 coverage means that as soon as my gets within a mile of Pride Park, between the hours of 2pm & 6pm on a Saturday it becomes nothing more than a really expensive block of plastic...

With the chasing pack having games against each other I reckon if we win our home games, and grab a draw or two on the road we should about scrape it.  But it's us, it's Derby, so we're bound to do it the hard way...

[Tamworthram]

43 minutes ago, ramsbottom said:

Especially as my O2 coverage means that as soon as my gets within a mile of Pride Park, between the hours of 2pm & 6pm on a Saturday it becomes nothing more than a really expensive block of plastic...

With the chasing pack having games against each other I reckon if we win our home games, and grab a draw or two on the road we should about scrape it.  But it's us, it's Derby, so we're bound to do it the hard way...

Ahh. So you have an IPhone 😀

[ramsbottom]

9 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Ahh. So you have an IPhone 😀

It worked fine on my old Virgin contract no probs at all, but since I've been forced to switch to O2, it's terrible...

[tomsdubs]

Think if we win our next 2 games the gap will be too big, Bolton have Stevenage away then Reading and I think they'll at least draw one of those.

Edited March 18 by tomsdubs

[FKANorwichExile]

2 hours ago, Dimmu said:

 

I remember posting a similar expectations-based post earlier where I expected Peterboro to do better than they did at the time and Stevenage to drop as their xG was all wrong. I can't be arsed to search what the situation was at the time, but Stevenage certainly has dropped since.

The automatic promotion battle will probably go to the wire, but the second place is ours to lose.

I've been saying for a while that if I was a betting man, I'd have good money on us and Posh going up automatically and Lincoln to cause an upset in the playoffs. I wasn't expecting Lincoln to score 16 goals in 3 games, mind. Barnsley aren't clinical enough, Bolton have weaknesses at the back and injuries everywhere else and Portsmouth have an awful run in. It just feels like experience will be the key factor here, and whoever hits the playoffs in form gets the third spot.

[Dimmu]

38 minutes ago, NorwichExile said:

I've been saying for a while that if I was a betting man, I'd have good money on us and Posh going up automatically and Lincoln to cause an upset in the playoffs. I wasn't expecting Lincoln to score 16 goals in 3 games, mind. Barnsley aren't clinical enough, Bolton have weaknesses at the back and injuries everywhere else and Portsmouth have an awful run in. It just feels like experience will be the key factor here, and whoever hits the playoffs in form gets the third spot.

Not a bad call IMO. Yet I wouldn't dare to say Pompey won't get another of the automatic places. If Posh wins their game in hand, it's still 9 points to catch in 7 games.

By the way, unrelated to this answer, I'm a betting man doing just fine.  😄 

[TheRamOfSwad]

My non statistical guesswork on final league positions is...

1. Portsmouth 

2. Derby 

---------------------

3. Peterborough 

4. Bolton

5. Barnsley 

6. Lincoln 

----------------

etc etc etc

[BathRam72]

10 minutes ago, TheRamOfSwad said:

My non statistical guesswork on final league positions is...

1. Portsmouth 

2. Derby 

---------------------

3. Peterborough 

4. Bolton

5. Barnsley 

6. Lincoln 

----------------

etc etc etc

I will take that

[Warren Blufitt]

That sixth spot will certainly be interesting but you just have to wonder if Lincoln’s amazing run can continue? Surely not and whilst there’s been no pressure on them up to now you can imagine that growing in the remaining games so I see them dropping back and just missing out.

[sage]

In an ideal world we'd win at Cambridge to clinch promotion and beat Carlisle for the title.

I think the biggest difference this year to last is we've had our fair dues from the officials over the season. Some bad luck, some good.

The costs of last season's decisions ran into double figures.

 

[Archied]

3 hours ago, sage said:

In an ideal world we'd win at Cambridge to clinch promotion and beat Carlisle for the title.

I think the biggest difference this year to last is we've had our fair dues from the officials over the season. Some bad luck, some good.

The costs of last season's decisions ran into double figures.

 

I like your ideal world ( football wise ) very much😀

[Carl Sagan]

On 16/03/2024 at 17:22, Carl Sagan said:

Guaranteed a top 10 finish! Tenth is our lowest possible position.

Alas it's the same as last week, not having gained any ground. 

[Carl Sagan]

At a first glance, we can't now finish lower than 7th, because Oxford have to play Lincoln. So almost guaranteed that playoff place! 

[Tamworthram]

On 20/03/2024 at 12:56, sage said:

In an ideal world we'd win at Cambridge to clinch promotion and beat Carlisle for the title.

I think the biggest difference this year to last is we've had our fair dues from the officials over the season. Some bad luck, some good.

The costs of last season's decisions ran into double figures.

 

In an ideal world, we'd clinch promotion against Orient in front of 30,000 fans rather than just the lucky ones who manage to get a ticket for Cambridge. We'd then confirm the title at Cambridge so that the trophy can actually be presented at the Carlisle game. Unfortunately, the ideal world rarely appears but , you never know. 

[Kernow]

1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

In an ideal world, we'd clinch promotion against Orient in front of 30,000 fans rather than just the lucky ones who manage to get a ticket for Cambridge. We'd then confirm the title at Cambridge so that the trophy can actually be presented at the Carlisle game. Unfortunately, the ideal world rarely appears but , you never know. 

The title doesn’t really bother me, nobody really remembers who won the league, the key is getting out of the division and whether that’s 1st or 2nd, I’ll be just as happy.

An ideal world for me would be if we went into the final game 3 points clear and something like 10 goals GD better than 3rd.

Basically a situation where unless we lost to Carlisle 6-0, we’re up. A full house at Pride Park, early kick-off in some late April sunshine, then the whole afternoon to celebrate. Perfect.

[Carl Sagan]

3 hours ago, Kernow said:

The title doesn’t really bother me, nobody really remembers who won the league, the key is getting out of the division and whether that’s 1st or 2nd, I’ll be just as happy.

An ideal world for me would be if we went into the final game 3 points clear and something like 10 goals GD better than 3rd.

Basically a situation where unless we lost to Carlisle 6-0, we’re up. A full house at Pride Park, early kick-off in some late April sunshine, then the whole afternoon to celebrate. Perfect.

This is Derby we're talking about - I still wouldn't feel safe. Has to be 4 points clear for that.

[Caerphilly Ram]

13 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

At a first glance, we can't now finish lower than 7th, because Oxford have to play Lincoln. So almost guaranteed that playoff place! 

I know not everyone sees value in it but I’ve enjoyed comparing where we sit in the league this season compared to last, and whilst I know some will be quick to caveat this with how rubbish the league is this season, and how big our budget is, and how it’s all down to luck not judgement, and maybe even that we don’t deserve it due to the lack of blood sacrifice made to the xG gods….BUT, to me it makes for nice reading to see we’ve improved on last year and sit in a strong position going into the last 5 games. Playoffs pretty much guaranteed and every chance of autos still in our control 😊 🐏 

(For reference the pic has the table after we’d played 41 games last season at the top, which was around the 12th of April, and today’s table at the bottom)