We can't finish lower than...

[ramsbottom]

On 02/03/2024 at 21:55, plymouthram said:

There's going to be a lot of dropped points by the current top 7 teams in the run in, simply because they all have games against each other. E.G. POMPEY have Peterboro (a), Barnsley (h), Derby (h) and Bolton (a). DERBY; Bolton (h) and Pompey (a). BOLTON; Barnsley (a), Oxford (h), Derby (a), Stevenage (a), Pompey (h) and Peterboro (a). BARNSLEY; Bolton (h), Pompey (a) and Stevenage (a). PETERBORO; Stevenage (h), Pompey (h), Oxford (a) and Bolton (h). STEVENAGE; Peterboro (a), Bolton (h), Barnsley (h) and Oxford (a). OXFORD; Bolton (a), Peterboro (h) and Stevenage (h).

Blackpool and Orient are still within range of getting a play-off place, so they could have a say on some games against the top 7. BLACKPOOL Have Pompey (h), Derby (a) and Barnsley (h). ORIENT; Derby (a), Peterboro (h) and Stevenage (a).

LINCOLN in 10th place are not an easy team to beat or score against (only lost 10 and conceded the 2nd least goals with 32). They have Pompey (h), Barnsley (a) and Oxford (a).

Bolton have a stinker of a run in.  Not a good time for their form to dip.

On paper you have to say ours is looks the easiest on paper.  I reckon if we come out of the next 3 games with 7 points, it's definitely on.

[Tamworthram]

7 minutes ago, ramsbottom said:

Bolton have a stinker of a run in.  Not a good time for their form to dip.

On paper you have to say ours is looks the easiest on paper.  I reckon if we come out of the next 3 games with 7 points, it's definitely on.

I'd say an excellent time for their form to dip (please). 😀

Seriously though, that's why I have them finishing 4th in my predictor. Sadly I have us only 3rd.

Edited March 5 by Tamworthram

[Sweetness34]

18 hours ago, Jimbo Ram said:

Really? Do you honestly think we are playing well enough to lose only 1 of our last 10 games? I would think 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats is much more likely…

We went for 9 wins and a draw over a period of 10 games earlier in the season and I don't think we were playing well at that point if that is possible. No better or worse than now. The whole season has been meh somehow despite being in the mix up top

This team could either repeat that and take 28 from 30 points or at the same time, could easily lose 5 of the remaining 10.

 

[Black ('n' White) Sheep]

1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

I'd say an excellent time for their form to dip (please). 😀

Seriously though, that's why I have them finishing 4th in my predictor. Sadly I have us only 3rd.

Sounds like your predictor is similar to mine! Here's hoping for Barnsley's form to drop through the floor!

[Comrade 86]

23 minutes ago, Black ('n' White) Sheep said:

Sounds like your predictor is similar to mine! Here's hoping for Barnsley's form to drop through the floor!

Barnsley to end up 9 points clear of us?!?! Blimey. Do we not win any more games this season? 

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, Black ('n' White) Sheep said:

Sounds like your predictor is similar to mine! Here's hoping for Barnsley's form to drop through the floor!

I see Barnsley having a strong finish.

 

[Turk Thrust]

6 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

The period we had no striker you mean. Ok.

Oh so that’s the reason we lost our two recent games. No centre forward. Didn’t think of that! Who’d have thought. OK

[Comrade 86]

9 minutes ago, Turk Thrust said:

Oh so that’s the reason we lost our two recent games. No centre forward. Didn’t think of that! Who’d have thought. OK

No you clearly didn't. Glad to be of assistance though. No need to thank me either 😋

[Turk Thrust]

33 minutes ago, Comrade 86 said:

No you clearly didn't. Glad to be of assistance though. No need to thank me either 😋

And here’s me thinking that we lost those two games because we were utter crap. And apparently it was because we didn’t have a centre forward. I stand corrected….

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

I think we need 8 wins.  Maybe 7 and a draw if we kick Bolton in the b*******.  Best get on with it.

[Black ('n' White) Sheep]

6 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

Barnsley to end up 9 points clear of us?!?! Blimey. Do we not win any more games this season? 

More to do with Barnsley having a great last 10 games than anything else (I take an average form between the last 5 overall and last 10 overall)

[Comrade 86]

1 hour ago, Turk Thrust said:

And here’s me thinking that we lost those two games because we were utter crap. And apparently it was because we didn’t have a centre forward. I stand corrected….

Ah, ok, I'll bite then 😂

With Ebou now fully fit and settled in, Gayle getting there and already having found his scoring boots, Sibley finding some really good form, Joe Ward finally showing what a threat he can be, Waggy back as cover so we actually have more than one fit 9 (his form was decent prior to injury too), Fozzy back in training, CBT to throw in the mix and even Collo due back in training in under 3 weeks, I think it's fair to assume that we might show improvement on those two games that you've chosen above all the others to form your assessment. We might even be seeing young Rooney before the end of the season and with a good few of ours having had very little football this season, I reckon they'll be finishing rather more strongly than some opposing teams' players with nigh on 40 games in their legs. 

I'd also argue that the performance against an admittedly poor Vale side also illustrates that whilst they're not quite back to the smoothly oiled machine we saw mid-season, our defence is getting used to changing up between a 3 and a 4 without the catastrophic brainfarts we saw earlier in the season. That in itself bodes well, as given how impregnable our defence has looked at times this season and it's clear already that having a 'fully staffed' midfield instead of just Hourihane and Bird, who were regularly overrun in earlier games, should aid them further. Likewise the arrival of Ebou, who can sit in and screen the back four as well as acting as a midfield enforcer. Defensive benefits aside, Ebou's arrival also allows Bird plus A.N. Other to pursue more glamorous exploits higher up the pitch. Likewise Sibbo, as when he chose to go forward against Vale, Ebou dutifully dropped deeper to cover the space he left behind him. 

In the end and this season especially, I guess we all see what we want to see, but I'd argue that we should expect to finish the season really strongly and that unlike some other sides, we still have scope to improve further. Everyone is raving about Barnsley, but I don't see it. I don't think they have the quality we and Portsmouth do, despite their good recent run of form and I remain confident that we will occupy one of the top 2 slots come the end of the season. I suspect they may beat Bolton (tonight), but they still have Portsmouth, Charlton, Stevenage, Reading and Blackpool to negotiate and Bolton's run-in is even tougher. 

That's my piece said, so I'll refrain from troubling you further! 

[Comrade 86]

6 minutes ago, Black ('n' White) Sheep said:

More to do with Barnsley having a great last 10 games than anything else (I take an average form between the last 5 overall and last 10 overall)

They are the form side currently, but we've seen how quickly that can change. They'll also be the hunted, not the hunters moving forwards and they've a toughish run in. I' wouldn't write them off, but out score us by a full point across all 10 or 11 games seems highly unlikely to me. If we have that sort of a collapse, I think I'll probably cry 😂

[Crewton]

18 minutes ago, Black ('n' White) Sheep said:

More to do with Barnsley having a great last 10 games than anything else (I take an average form between the last 5 overall and last 10 overall)

With no other factors taken into account?

That explains everything.

[TomTom92]

31 minutes ago, Comrade 86 said:

Ah, ok, I'll bite then 😂

With Ebou now fully fit and settled in, Gayle getting there and already having found his scoring boots, Sibley finding some really good form, Joe Ward finally showing what a threat he can be, Waggy back as cover so we actually have more than one fit 9 (his form was decent prior to injury too), Fozzy back in training, CBT to throw in the mix and even Collo due back in training in under 3 weeks, I think it's fair to assume that we might show improvement on those two games that you've chosen above all the others to form your assessment. We might even be seeing young Rooney before the end of the season and with a good few of ours having had very little football this season, I reckon they'll be finishing rather more strongly than some opposing teams' players with nigh on 40 games in their legs. 

I'd also argue that the performance against an admittedly poor Vale side also illustrates that whilst they're not quite back to the smoothly oiled machine we saw mid-season, our defence is getting used to changing up between a 3 and a 4 without the catastrophic brainfarts we saw earlier in the season. That in itself bodes well, as given how impregnable our defence has looked at times this season and it's clear already that having a 'fully staffed' midfield instead of just Hourihane and Bird, who were regularly overrun in earlier games, should aid them further. Likewise the arrival of Ebou, who can sit in and screen the back four as well as acting as a midfield enforcer. Defensive benefits aside, Ebou's arrival also allows Bird plus A.N. Other to pursue more glamorous exploits higher up the pitch. Likewise Sibbo, as when he chose to go forward against Vale, Ebou dutifully dropped deeper to cover the space he left behind him. 

In the end and this season especially, I guess we all see what we want to see, but I'd argue that we should expect to finish the season really strongly and that unlike some other sides, we still have scope to improve further. Everyone is raving about Barnsley, but I don't see it. I don't think they have the quality we and Portsmouth do, despite their good recent run of form and I remain confident that we will occupy one of the top 2 slots come the end of the season. I suspect they may beat Bolton (tonight), but they still have Portsmouth, Charlton, Stevenage, Reading and Blackpool to negotiate and Bolton's run-in is even tougher. 

That's my piece said, so I'll refrain from troubling you further! 

Agree 100%, did a predictor today and have Barnsley to win tonight (looking likely). 
 
But final standings was;

Pompey 95   
Derby     92   
Barnsley 89   
Bolton     89

Think once they have the pressure of being hunted they’ll drop points. 

Ultimately if we have a good 10 matches we’ll go up. 

[Comrade 86]

28 minutes ago, TomTom92 said:

Agree 100%, did a predictor today and have Barnsley to win tonight (looking likely). 
 
But final standings was;

Pompey 95   
Derby     92   
Barnsley 89   
Bolton     89

Think once they have the pressure of being hunted they’ll drop points. 

Ultimately if we have a good 10 matches we’ll go up. 

I'd take that alright!

I'm probably a bit of a dreamer when it comes to Derby, but I'd not be surprised to see sharp improvement from the team. We've rarely put it all together this season and I just feel we might be about to and I think there's a half sensible argument to support that view. I've thought for a long time now that Portsmouth and Derby were the teams to beat. I think both have a class edge, though Portsmouth have showed greater consistency. I also thought they recruited very well and whilst it looked desperate for us for a while, bringing in Ebou and Gayle might yet prove a masterstroke.

As much as anything, I just feel like our luck may have turned and I'm oddly confident we'll close this season out strongly. At times we still don't look like we've really gelled, but I'm still hopeful we can end the season looking the sum of our parts. 

[TomTom92]

Watched the last 20 mins of Barnsley v Bolton, Bolton missed a sitter and a one on one. Deserved point I’d say and the best result for us IMO.

[europia]

23 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

Which games are more likely to lose than to win, in your opinion?

As proven in the Charlton game, we are capable of losing to very average teams. I hope we win enough of our remaining games to achieve promotion, but to do so, our performances will need to go up a level for the run in. 

[Comrade 86]

3 minutes ago, europia said:

As proven in the Charlton game, we are capable of losing to very average teams. I hope we win enough of our remaining games to achieve promotion, but to do so, our performances will need to go up a level for the run in. 

Whilst that doesn't really address my question, that's fair enough. I think in this league though, any team can lose to average teams. Even Ipswich lost the plot at one point (winless in 6 or 7 IIRC). I'd also reiterate what I said after we beat them, that being that they are a much better side than their league position at the time suggested. Their form since then has them sat 5th in the table (games since we beat them), whereas they sat 23rd with only Carlisle below them not so long ago. I'd not be surprised to see them trouble Barnsley, among others, given their performances against Portsmouth and Bolton.

I do agree though that we will need to improve our own last 6 game form. Perhaps we can start by blowing away Bristol this weekend?

[BramcoteRam84]

Well I’ve got it:

Derby 92

Bolton 90

Barnsley 86

However I’ve got Bolton losing to posh on last day, Derby winning their last 3 meaning we’d start final game in 3rd, and Derby beating Bolton. Also have us dropping points at Bristol this Saturday (draw), Pompey (loss) and Wycombe (draw), so 7 wins 2 draws and a loss. 

That Bolton game is massive.