Jump to content

We can't finish lower than...


Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, therealhantsram said:

True!

Mathematically my well be 10th, but in reality, I can't see anyone outside the top 5 catching us.

Mathematically it will be higher. Oxford play Stevenage and Lincoln, so it’s impossible for them all to reach their maximum. There will be plenty of other fixtures that reduce the maximums, it’ll just take some working out.

Personally, I think today guarantees us to 4 at least. Four points to Bolton, Posh & Barnsley have games in hand but can only be within 4 points if they win. It’ll take at least two games to catch us up, especially with our goal difference. There’s still key games against each other to come, I can’t see all 3 doing enough to catch us at the same time now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 05/03/2024 at 11:46, ramsbottom said:

Bolton have a stinker of a run in.  Not a good time for their form to dip.

On paper you have to say ours is looks the easiest on paper.  I reckon if we come out of the next 3 games with 7 points, it's definitely on.

Oh it’s on.  On like Donkey Kong!!! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, DerbyRevolution said:

How many points do we need to finish the job? 
 

a) mathematically 

b) realistically 

Mathematically, Bolton winning every game would take them to 95 points, so 96 absolutely guarantees it. That's 6 wins. It's possible, but I don't think we'll get that many.

Realistically, even if you round Bolton, Barnsley and Posh's PPG rate up to 1.9, which is close to all their averages over the course of the season, it would be Bolton 87, Barnsley and Posh 85. Since New Year's day, Barnsley have had a PPG of 2.0, Posh 1.7 and Bolton 1.42. At this rate, it would end up with Barnsley on 87, Posh and Bolton on 84. I'd say based on overall form and more recent form, 88 points would be enough. There are still a number of key games which will also eliminate teams for us. Bolton play Pompey, Posh and Stevenage. Peterborough play Oxford and Bolton. Barnsley play Stevenage, Portsmouth and Blackpool.

For us to get 88 points, we'd need 10 points from 7 games, allowing us to lose up to 3 games. I think we will get more than 10 points from the fixtures we have left, and I'm hoping that'll be enough.

Edited by Kernow
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Kernow said:

Mathematically, Bolton winning every game would take them to 95 points, so 96 absolutely guarantees it. That's 6 wins. It's possible, but I don't think we'll get that many.

Realistically, even if you round Bolton, Barnsley and Posh's PPG rate up to 1.9, which is close to all their averages over the course of the season, it would be Bolton 87, Barnsley and Posh 85. Since New Year's day, Barnsley have had a PPG of 2.0, Posh 1.7 and Bolton 1.42. At this rate, it would end up with Barnsley on 87, Posh and Bolton on 84. I'd say based on overall form and more recent form, 88 points would be enough. There are still a number of key games which will also eliminate teams for us. Bolton play Pompey, Posh and Stevenage. Peterborough play Oxford and Bolton. Barnsley play Stevenage, Portsmouth and Blackpool.

For us to get 88 points, we'd need 10 points from 7 games, allowing us to lose up to 3 games. I think we will get more than 10 points from the fixtures we have left, and I'm hoping that'll be enough.

My gut tells me 5 wins needed. Bolton v Peterborough last match could be the swinger if were left with a win needed against Carlisle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I did a few options on The Fishy predictor.

Just plugging in us losing every game still had us finishing in 5th place. This makes sense because even Lincoln the form team would need to win 6 out of 7 games to get to 79 points.

Other more realistic predictions entered for the top 5 teams suggested we still need 92 points to be sure of 2nd, so the team just need to focus on winning every game and watching the target decrease as others slip up. Win our home games, win at Cambridge, draw at Northampton and Wycombe - it doesn't seem impossible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Crewton said:

I did a few options on The Fishy predictor.

Just plugging in us losing every game still had us finishing in 5th place. This makes sense because even Lincoln the form team would need to win 6 out of 7 games to get to 79 points.

Other more realistic predictions entered for the top 5 teams suggested we still need 92 points to be sure of 2nd, so the team just need to focus on winning every game and watching the target decrease as others slip up. Win our home games, win at Cambridge, draw at Northampton and Wycombe - it doesn't seem impossible.

We are so close you can bloody smell it 🫣🫣🫣🫣

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Derby are on 78 Points.

Leyton Orient need to win all their games to catch us - Maximum 79 Points.
Leyton Orient play Lincoln, and in this scenario must beat them.

If Lincoln win all their other games - Maximum 79 Points.
Lincoln play Oxford, and in this scenario must beat them.

If Oxford win all their other games - Maximum 81 Points.
Oxford play Stevenage, and in this scenario we assume they beat them*.

If Stevenage win all their other games - Maximum 82 Points.
*Oxford & Stevenage can afford to draw and still both catch us.

9th is so close I can almost taste it - haha.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account.

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...