EtoileSportiveDeDerby Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Obviously at our humble level…but the mentality for the remaining games has got to be similar to Citeh and Liverpool, home or away, whatever the opposition they go for the 3 points. don’t start thinking a draw away at Portsmouth is a good result we play for a win every game remaining. Shackles off, ducking go for it PW Carl Sagan, Rammy03 and McMuffin 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnyram Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 On 02/03/2024 at 23:07, Jimbo Ram said: 1 win in 4 play off finals at Wembley 🤔 Think I would take a top 2 finish 😊 I’ve been to 3 of them……. plus Cremonese to make it 4 defeats out of 4. All the others Derby have played at Wembley were wins. I’d definitely take top 2 Promise I won’t go if we get there! 🫣 PrideParkhead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Ram Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 59 minutes ago, Donnyram said: I’ve been to 3 of them……. plus Cremonese to make it 4 defeats out of 4. All the others Derby have played at Wembley were wins. I’d definitely take top 2 Promise I won’t go if we get there! 🫣 I have been to all the 🐏 Wembley appearances since the charity shield, apart from Villa, and seen just the one win v WBA, so maybe I should stay away too 😉 Donnyram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kathcairns Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, Donnyram said: I’ve been to 3 of them……. plus Cremonese to make it 4 defeats out of 4. All the others Derby have played at Wembley were wins. I’d definitely take top 2 Promise I won’t go if we get there! 🫣 Same here, been to them all except west brom. My family tell me i cant go if we get play offs😂 Donnyram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BramcoteRam84 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 With a 25% success rate in our last 4 visits there is a fair chance that 90% of the regular fan base could be considered bad luck charms. I didn’t go to the old Wembley in the 90s, I watched (and cried) at home so my record is 1/3. I really hope we won’t be at Wembley this year and we can get up automatically but I’ll be there if we are. angieram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Buxton's Bat Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 3 hours ago, Donnyram said: I’ve been to 3 of them……. plus Cremonese to make it 4 defeats out of 4. All the others Derby have played at Wembley were wins. I’d definitely take top 2 Promise I won’t go if we get there! 🫣 Not quite as much of a bad luck omen as you, as I missed the Cremonese game, but I too have seen 3 play-off losses in the flesh and seen the solitary victory on TV. I also missed just 1 home game game in 1996.......v Palace. I'd rate our chances of winning a 10 game 'mini-league' with the teams in positions 2-5 higher than our chances of a knock-out with the teams in positions 3-6 so top 2 it is......and, for the right price, I'll miss the Carlisle game if it helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van der MoodHoover Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 On the basis of our last 3 games averaging 1 ppg, I've got us fighting relegation..... Come on youuuu rams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 20 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said: On the basis of our last 3 games averaging 1 ppg, I've got us fighting relegation..... Come on youuuu rams You’ll have to do better than that. A point per game would give us 79 points which is already enough to see us safe. 😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnyram Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 3 hours ago, Ian Buxton's Bat said: Not quite as much of a bad luck omen as you, as I missed the Cremonese game, but I too have seen 3 play-off losses in the flesh and seen the solitary victory on TV. I also missed just 1 home game game in 1996.......v Palace. I'd rate our chances of winning a 10 game 'mini-league' with the teams in positions 2-5 higher than our chances of a knock-out with the teams in positions 3-6 so top 2 it is......and, for the right price, I'll miss the Carlisle game if it helps. I’m away for the Carlisle game but back for the play offs 🥴. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyinLiverpool Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 12 minutes ago, Donnyram said: I’m away for the Carlisle game but back for the play offs 🥴. Play offs? What are they?😉 Donnyram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverback Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Soooo many variables ....... Under pressure even the best will falter. Teams fighting relegation could be a big factor Rivalries (local\time honoured etc) The capricious nature of lady luck Injuries Suspensions PLUS and finally since when did Derby county ever do anything the easy way? All that said its far better to have a nail biting finish than mid table apathy COYR 🦍 McMuffin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premier ram Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 32 minutes ago, Donnyram said: I’m away for the Carlisle game but back for the play offs 🥴. Play offs? Who you going to watch Bolton or Barnsley Zag zig, Comrade 86, plymouthram and 1 other 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van der MoodHoover Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 5 hours ago, Tamworthram said: You’ll have to do better than that. A point per game would give us 79 points which is already enough to see us safe. 😀 Au contraire. You're forgetting about the 45 point deduction the EFL are bound to invent by the seasons end..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comrade 86 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 (edited) How are people arriving at their projected numbers. Curious as to the massive gulfs between some estimates and others. Aside from simply extrapolating from past performance and numbers to date, what other further factors are being accounted for? EDIT: Didn't KentRam used to do a similar thing with some intelligent weighting applied? Can't remember his username but it's something like that. Edited March 7 by Comrade 86 Ken Tram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 38 minutes ago, Comrade 86 said: How are people arriving at their projected numbers. Curious as to the massive gulfs between some estimates and others. Aside from simply extrapolating from past performance and numbers to date, what other further factors are being accounted for? EDIT: Didn't KentRam used to do a similar thing with some intelligent weighting applied? Can't remember his username but it's something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 20 minutes ago, Tamworthram said: Edit: Seriously though, there can be no genuinely reliable method (unless we use XG of course 😀) as there are too many variables including, suspensions, injuries, poor referee decisions, individual players form on the day, and players playing with a bit more caution if they pick up an early booking in a game. All I have done, which is no more a reliable method than anyone else’s is to make an educated guess if a team in the top 8 plays one outside the top 8. Then, if another play off contender has to play the same fixture I’m applied the same outcome. For example, I have Derby down for a draw at Bristol (so obviously a GD of 0). If anyone else has to play away at Bristol (e.g. Bolton), I’ve assumed they will also draw. For head to heads amongst the top 8 I have just taken a guess based on who is home and who is away and their respective current forms. I first did it about 4 weeks ago and I update it as actual results occur. The teams 5-8 are exactly the same and in the same positions but my top 2 original forecasts (Bolton and Derby) I am now forecasting 4 and 3 respectively. So, as I say, not remotely reliable and only done to pass the time away. Comrade 86 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comrade 86 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 9 minutes ago, Tamworthram said: Edit: Seriously though, there can be no genuinely reliable method (unless we use XG of course 😀) as there are too many variables including, suspensions, injuries, poor referee decisions, individual players form on the day, and players playing with a bit more caution if they pick up an early booking in a game. All I have done, which is no more a reliable method than anyone else’s is to make an educated guess if a team in the top 8 plays one outside the top 8. Then, if another play off contender has to play the same fixture I’m applied the same outcome. For example, I have Derby down for a draw at Bristol (so obviously a GD of 0). If anyone else has to play away at Bristol (e.g. Bolton), I’ve assumed they will also draw. For head to heads amongst the top 8 I have just taken a guess based on who is home and who is away and their respective current forms. I first did it about 4 weeks ago and I update it as actual results occur. The teams 5-8 are exactly the same and in the same positions but my top 2 original forecasts (Bolton and Derby) I am now forecasting 4 and 3 respectively. So, as I say, not remotely reliable and only done to pass the time away. Seems a sensible approach to me Tamworth. I confess my sense that we'll finish top 2 is as much a hunch as any considered opionion. I backed us for the autos at fancy odds before we went on our run though, so perhaps it's my pocket talking, not my brain! Tamworthram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Tram Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 (edited) 6 hours ago, Comrade 86 said: How are people arriving at their projected numbers. Curious as to the massive gulfs between some estimates and others. Aside from simply extrapolating from past performance and numbers to date, what other further factors are being accounted for? EDIT: Didn't KentRam used to do a similar thing with some intelligent weighting applied? Can't remember his username but it's something like that. Oh no @Comrade 86 ! Do I have to do that again? (Although it was clearly intelligent weighted stuff! You're too generous!) But, you're right, it would be interesting to see how people are making their predictions. Edited March 7 by Ken Tram Comrade 86 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 2 hours ago, Ken Tram said: Oh no @Comrade 86 ! Do I have to do that again? (Although it was clearly intelligent weighted stuff! You're too generous!) But, you're right, it would be interesting to see how people are making their predictions. I normally lick my finger and stick it in the air , multiply by the hope I feel then subtract the this is derby figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted March 9 Author Share Posted March 9 (edited) Some great results today at the top. At the bottom, we can't now finish lower than 14th. I do remember one ignominious point earlier in the season when Burton Albion were above us in the league. Now they can't catch us! Edited March 9 by Carl Sagan Charlton can't catch us either Ken Tram, hydraulic ram and RadioactiveWaste 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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