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On 05/03/2024 at 20:24, Comrade 86 said:

In the end and this season especially, I guess we all see what we want to see, but I'd argue that we should expect to finish the season really strongly and that unlike some other sides, we still have scope to improve further. Everyone is raving about Barnsley, but I don't see it. I don't think they have the quality we and Portsmouth do, despite their good recent run of form and I remain confident that we will occupy one of the top 2 slots come the end of the season.

How many on here still fancy Barnsley now, I wonder?

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1 minute ago, Comrade 86 said:

How many on here still fancy Barnsley now, I wonder?

It can change so quickly, that's the problem. A great day for us today could be completely reversed in a few days.

Posh didn't win in 4 and were believed to be out of it. Now 4 wins in a row, and they're a point behind us if they win their games in hand. I don't even think Portsmouth can be overly confident that they're safe in the top two right now. They have to play all four directly below them in the league. I highly doubt they'll lose all four of those games, but if they do it's not inconceivable that they don't even get the home advantage in the play-offs, let alone automatic promotion.

If we can hold our nerve in the 'big' games, and get 4 points from Bolton and Pompey, then we'll do it. With the fixtures we do have left, we'll kick ourselves if we miss out from this position.

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1 minute ago, Kernow said:

It can change so quickly, that's the problem. A great day for us today could be completely reversed in a few days.

Posh didn't win in 4 and were believed to be out of it. Now 4 wins in a row, and they're a point behind us if they win their games in hand. I don't even think Portsmouth can be overly confident that they're safe in the top two right now. They have to play all four directly below them in the league. I highly doubt they'll lose all four of those games, but if they do it's not inconceivable that they don't even get the home advantage in the play-offs, let alone automatic promotion.

If we can hold our nerve in the 'big' games, and get 4 points from Bolton and Pompey, then we'll do it. With the fixtures we do have left, we'll kick ourselves if we miss out from this position.

Maybe, but there's no way on earth we're finishing between 6 and 9 points behind Barnsley and I don't think there ever was. Every team that beats us is suddenly deified, so I don't think it's really me that needs to understand the swings inherent a promotion push.

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5 minutes ago, therealhantsram said:

Is the op going to keep this thread up to date. What's the lowest we can finish now?

Charlton in 14th cannot overtake us, so technically 13th. But seeing as the top 13 will obviously play one another before the end of the season, mathematically it'll be higher than this, I just can't be bothered to work out how high!

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1 hour ago, therealhantsram said:

Is the op going to keep this thread up to date. What's the lowest we can finish now?

You could read back one page! Or am I meant to update it every day, even when there are no matches?

On 09/03/2024 at 17:33, Carl Sagan said:

Some great results today at the top. At the bottom, we can't now finish lower than 14th. I do remember one ignominious point earlier in the season when Burton Albion were above us in the league. Now they can't catch us! 

 

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10 hours ago, Kernow said:

Charlton in 14th cannot overtake us, so technically 13th. But seeing as the top 13 will obviously play one another before the end of the season, mathematically it'll be higher than this, I just can't be bothered to work out how high!

Go on @Kernow and @Carl Sagan... it won't take ten minutes to check a few match fixtures.

I know that you want to ...

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10 hours ago, Kernow said:

Charlton in 14th cannot overtake us, so technically 13th. But seeing as the top 13 will obviously play one another before the end of the season, mathematically it'll be higher than this, I just can't be bothered to work out how high!

But Wycombe in 15th can overtake us.🤔

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36 minutes ago, ram59 said:

But Wycombe in 15th can overtake us.🤔

They can but it would mean them winning all of their remaining games including v Wigan. Which would mean Wigan can't overtake us. So, it's as you were. 😀

The reality is that, taking into account the fact that teams have to play each other and therefore you can't just do the maths to see which teams could still catch us in order to work out our lowest possible position, it's far too complicated. I haven't got the time, energy or brain power to work out all of the possible scenarios but I'd guess we can't finish below something like 11th - possibly even higher.

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4 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

They can but it would mean them winning all of their remaining games including v Wigan. Which would mean Wigan can't overtake us. So, it's as you were. 😀

The reality is that, taking into account the fact that teams have to play each other and therefore you can't just do the maths to see which teams could still catch us in order to work out our lowest possible position, it's far too complicated. I haven't got the time, energy or brain power to work out all of the possible scenarios but I'd guess we can't finish below something like 11th - possibly even higher.

Not strictly correct, Wycombe and Wigan can afford to draw against each other and still match our current points, overtaking us on goal difference. The others aren't brought into the equation yet, let's just hope we can tick as many off the list as soon as possible.

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Now, with 8 games to go, we can't finish lower than 11th. So we'll definitely be top half! Only Bristol Rovers and above can overtake us.

Maybe with 4 or 5 games left I'll start looking at the remaining fixtures to see what a difference that makes in terms of people being mathematically able to overhaul us. 

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28 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Now, with 8 games to go, we can't finish lower than 11th. So we'll definitely be top half! Only Bristol Rovers and above can overtake us.

Maybe with 4 or 5 games left I'll start looking at the remaining fixtures to see what a difference that makes in terms of people being mathematically able to overhaul us. 

15 points ahead of 7th 💪

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