Derby vs Port Vale

[Loughborough Ram]

Just seen the goal. Mendez Laings first touch with a spinning ball was brilliant, his second touch with the outside of his boot was superb and the finish was cool and emphasised the ability that John Jules has.

Keep John Jules fit, which seems a nigh on impossible job if recent history is anything to go by, and we could be in for an increasingly entertaining and successful season.

[jimtastic56]

1 hour ago, PistoldPete said:

Interesting that Warne brought JJ on ahead of Waghorn. And of course it paid dividends straightaway. All our ageing strikers have played a part so far but I’ve always thought we needed some fresh legs. Hopefully JJ can stay fit and play a big part and if so maybe extend his loan after Jan. 

I had a close up view of the goal last night and the ball from Mendez was spinning like a top . It could easily have been sliced wide , so well done JJ. The atmosphere wasn’t helped by another half empty ground . I think we can dispel the myth that we are everyone’s “Cup Final” and fans will be clammering to see us .

[Foreveram]

11 hours ago, Andicis said:

I think the 7 shots on target statistic is fairly unimportant and that particular statistic can be pretty misleading. I can only name two chances of note in the game, the goal and the save from Fornah. I don't think we were particularly productive. 

Can you name any other serious chances that we created? 

So why did their keeper get the man of the match award.

[IslandExile]

4 hours ago, Chester40 said:

Oh ..come on. All this pathetic nit-picking when we have won is beyond ridicule. 

[Foreveram]

3 hours ago, IlsonDerby said:

This is my one concern but I’m pinning everything on us getting even more successful when we ‘finally click’ 

I’m a fan of xG but this is b*******. Brighton are in Europe because their owner has an intricate understanding of statistics within football. There’s still plenty of Brighton fans that think the only important stat is goals scored etc. 

Brighton are in Europe cos their owner has put hundreds of millions of pounds in to the club.

[G STAR RAM]

12 minutes ago, Foreveram said:

So why did their keeper get the man of the match award.

Exactly. 

According to the xG stat, none of the saves he made were expected to go in.

[nottingram]

3 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Exactly. 

According to the xG stat, none of the saves he made were expected to go in.

Just wait until you hear about xGOT!

[jimtastic56]

4 minutes ago, Foreveram said:

Brighton are in Europe cos their owner has put hundreds of millions of pounds in to the club.

And a superb worldwide network of scouts , who pick up players for £5 million and sell them for £100 million .

[S8TY]

Nice to see Bradley’s reaction to Wilson defending our box well …run up to him and congratulated him …I like that …

[May Contain Nuts]

I don't go seeking out xG stats myself but can see how they're useful when assessing and predicting long-term performance levels.

However, it amazes me just how proud some are to proffer themselves as a Luddite, revel in this usually unwanted status, glorify it and even use it to mock others. All for using a statistic they don't like.

It's really rather childish.

Edited November 29, 2023 by May Contain Nuts

[DavesaRam]

2 hours ago, Srg said:

God what a tedious last couple of pages. 

xG useless without context, shots on target useless without context. It’s almost like any stat is useless without context. Mad. 

There are even times when a description of madness needs context! 🤪

[Ghost of Clough]

13 minutes ago, RadioactiveWaste said:

I see xG is being debated.

Time to remind people that factual statistics (like Shots on target) are the input for the xG model, the output of the xG model depends on the inputs. Is the xG model any good? With zero knowledge of how that model is working, and I doubt the code would be shared openly by it's creators anyway, the confidance in xG appareas to be based on a consensus of "well everyone else buys into xG" rather than actual knolwedge of the xG model.

That doesn't mean the xG model is bad, or shouldn't be used as a useful indication of how effective a team's attacking has been, but it's a model output, not a factual statistic. On the one hand, it's likely to be consistent as the code is just running over the inputs to generate the xG number, on the other hand anyone watching the game and looking at the factual stats could (and probably does) run their own personal internal model and conclude "we deserved more than we scored" or "we were lucky everything went in and normally it doesn't" <etc>

Is xG a superior metric to shots on target? My take is they're different things and need be used differently. xG is not "the truth" but what factual statistics tell you about a game is very limited without further context.

When averaged out over the whole league this season, only 3 goals more have been scored than predicted by Opta's xG, better than 99% accuracy when comparing against larger data sets.

However, for individual clubs the accuracy is much worse. For example, Wigan have scored 60% more than their xG, and Exeter have scored 35% less. Unsurprisingly, the teams outperforming the xG are those towards thr top of the table and have more clinical forwards than those at the bottom. It's still a useful stat to give a rough indication of whether a club is overperforming or not.

For individual players, the margin of error is much wider. I find xG and xA useful in initial player identification, as they are merely pointing out how many goals/assists the average player would make in that situation - them being clinical or wasteful isn't taken into account. The 'raw stats' are much more important in actual player selection.

[DavesaRam]

2 hours ago, Mucker1884 said:

Was convinced we were offside for our goal!  😲

... 5 re-runs... expand to full screen... before realising TJJ was slightly behind NML when he played it through!  Phew!  I thought I'd lost my marbles for a few minutes, and that the ref/lino had given us a break!  🤣

In the end, it was great play (by both NML & TJJ), and good decisions all round (Including the officials).

👍🐏

 

EDIT:

Was TJJ cupping his ear... or stroking his whiskers?

 

Don’t be silly!

[Ghost of Clough]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

No, going into administration was the choice of MM?

Would he have done that if over £50m wasn't wasted on players we either didn't get any money for or made a big loss on? Without wasting that money, we wouldn't have been under P&S pressure or any embargoes. We would have been a better prospect to buy, even if we didn't achieve promotion.

Johnson, Butterfield, Shackell, Blackman, Camara, Olsson, Anya, Nugent, Lawrence, Wisdom, Huddlestone, Waghorn, Marriott, Jozefzoon, Malone, Bielik, Jozwiak

[Shuff264]

Thought it was a very similar game to Rovers, turgid first half where neither side showed any real quality and then we improved second and deserved it overall.

Still lacking in overall performance, but we can take comfort in 3pts.

I did miss the goal because I was in Port Vales delightful portaloos, but oh well.

NML, Wilson, Fornah were standouts for me, Collins and especially Hourihane had off days (Seriously Conor, can you beat the first man from a set piece?)

[Caerphilly Ram]

1 hour ago, Foreveram said:

It’s what people in armchairs talk about.

Not all people in armchairs!

[Ian Buxton's Bat]

Good win last night from an OK-ish performance in my opinion.

There is an excellent description of xG here

https://www.coachesvoice.com/cv/expected-goals-xg-explained/#:~:text=A shot that measures 0.01,not a very good chance.

My (new) understanding:

Basically each shot/chance is graded on the likelihood of an average player scoring that chance.

Shots on target doesn't = xG for any game but clearly, on average, over a season, the more shots on target you have, the higher your xG is likely to be.

If you look on footy stats website, it appears that on average our for and against xG's are similar (hence lots of tight matches?) but as a team we're outperforming our expected xG .......and conceding fewer than the xG against. Does that mean we've got decent strikers and the opposition haven't? not sure.

Each player has an xG based on the chances created by themselves and by team mates and it makes interesting reading........just look on the footy stats website to see how 'terrible' Collins is. He's out-performing his xG but I guess if he got in more goal scoring positions his xG could be higher.

I'm guessing that a goalie can make worldie saves from low xG shots and be man of the match despite an overall low xG for the other side.

 

[admira]

Lots of positives right now, it's baffling why there is still negativity from some people.

7 goals conceded in last 10 games (best in division)

4 wins on the bounce (best in the division)

16 goals scored away (= best in the division)

6 goals conceded at home (best in the division)

16 goals conceded (best in the division)

+15 goal difference (3rd best in the division)

14 points at home (2nd best in the division)

3.1 Av shots on targets by opposition (lowest in the division)

6.9 Av attempts on goal by opposition (lowest in the division)

etc etc 

Edited November 29, 2023 by admira

[May Contain Nuts]

8 minutes ago, admira said:

Lots of positives right now, it's baffling why there is still negativity from some people.

7 goals conceded in last 10 games (best in division)

4 wins on the bounce (best in the division)

16 goals scored away (= best in the division)

6 goals conceded at home (best in the division)

16 goals conceded (best in the division)

+15 goal difference (3rd best in the division)

14 points at home (2nd best in the division)

3.1 Av shots on targets by opposition (lowest in the division)

6.9 Av attempts on goal by opposition (lowest in the division)

etc etc 

That's nothing more than we should expect with the squad we have.

Is there a directive out there that everyone has to be c***-a-hoop because we're just about hitting par in an abysmal division full of utterly s*** teams?

Getting Derby promoted this season, with the way the league it is, barely even registers as an achievement. The real work starts when we're back in the Championship.

Edited November 29, 2023 by May Contain Nuts

[Wolfie20]

5 minutes ago, admira said:

Lots of positives right now, it's baffling why there is still negativity from some people.

 

Possibly because they’ve taken a dislike to certain players and/or management (even hate with a passion in one case) and no matter what, to perpetuate that level of dislike, they have to go searching for any fact/statistic which might help to validate their point of view?