Only One Auto to play For.....Apparently.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, PistoldPete said:

Yeah you produced this chart a week or so ago and it had us on 84 points.. now 87. Keep it up Rams and you never know , but I do think we will need more than 90 points to go up unless Plymouth really start to implode. 

We are now averaging 2.1 points per game under Paul Warne. If we sustain that until the end of the season we will finish on 91 points. However, since we went on the current winning run, the points per games ratio marginally increases by the week and I think that the majority of the fanbase believe we are now a better team than we were in November. I'm not sure that any team in this division could have resisted us in the second half yesterday. So it is not beyond hope that we can exceed 91.

In the last six games we have cut Plymouth's lead from a daunting 15 to eight and we now have a game in hand on them. Whatever they might say, Plymouth must be a bit worried that we are catching up fast - a bit like Bournemouth caught us in Mac's second season. On top of that Warne's man management, I think, are having a dramatic effect on individual performances. Last month, Warne spoke about whether Knight could improve his game to Warne's satisfaction because there were some things he needed to do to convince him that he should take out the extra year option on Knight's contract. Since then Knight is arguably playing at a consistent level above and beyond what he has achieved since establishing himself as a first-team player. Hourihane, who has played for several decent managers, is waxing lyrical about how Warne has helped him up his game. Suddenly, the whole team seems to ooze confidence that wasn't there as we allowed Morecambe to take a point in our game up there, Burton to take a point at the Pirelli and Torquay to snatch a cup replay chance. Warne seems to have a positive effect on helping players to maximise their potential, which gives us a big advantage over our competitors at the present time. Shaun Barker told us that when Warne came in and surely a lot who doubted that at the time, must by now have become believers.

Of course there are unknown variables ahead like injuries, suspensions and refereeing decisions that we can't predict but a continuing good February could see us moving like an unstoppable runaway train, just as we head for Home Park on the 7th of March.

But if two teams do finish above us we'll still have a great chance with this set-up in the play-offs.

Edited February 5, 2023 by Brailsford Ram

[norwichram]

Oh my God this is getting exciting …

[FKANorwichExile]

The batterings we've given Bolton and Barnsley make it clear there are only 4 good sides in the league, and we're one of them. I expect Plymouth to start dropping some points, and Ipswich needed a Curtis howler to beat us at their place.

On form, you've got to fancy Wednesday to win the league but I wouldn't bet against us to grab second. If we were in their shoes we'd be planning the bus parade route too.

[plymouthram]

Yes I've been looking on Wednesday's forum, there is a few though that are still a little cautious. I do think though, if we were in Wednesday's position and with their form, we would be all giving it the large one. But with 18 games to go, 17 for Plymouth & Ipswich, its still a lot of points to be won or lost.

On Ipswich forum, they seemed to given up on having a automatic place and just hope to stay in the top 6 for a play-off slot. Plymouth 2 forums are split between staying in the top 2 or finishing 3rd. What ever happens, it's staying in the race as long as possible, keeping Plymouth & Wednesday looking over their shoulders at the team that won't go away.

[Gerry Daly]

Its easier chasing than trying to stay ahead I think. There is less pressure 

[PistoldPete]

5 minutes ago, Gerry Daly said:

Its easier chasing than trying to stay ahead I think. There is less pressure 

Says you building up more pressure on us. 

[ram59]

As much as I'm enjoying the ride atm, we shouldn't get too carried away by a number of great home results against some of the poorer teams. We've also managed to grind out a couple of away victories along with some draws.

We have quite a challenging run in of away matches and the next few games are against clubs in good form also, with 5 of the next 7 games being against teams in the top half on current form. Having said that, both Bolton and Morecambe are also in that top half and we were comfortable in both matches.

[Andicis]

35 minutes ago, ram59 said:

As much as I'm enjoying the ride atm, we shouldn't get too carried away by a number of great home results against some of the poorer teams. We've also managed to grind out a couple of away victories along with some draws.

We have quite a challenging run in of away matches and the next few games are against clubs in good form also, with 5 of the next 7 games being against teams in the top half on current form. Having said that, both Bolton and Morecambe are also in that top half and we were comfortable in both matches.

This is the exact time to get carried away. If we can't get a little bit excited and over the top after 6 league wins and making up ground on the top 2, when can we? 

We have tough games coming up, but if we play at our best level, we can beat anyone in this league. There is every reason to be confident about our chances. 

[Srg]

1 minute ago, Andicis said:

This is the exact time to get carried away. If we can't get a little bit excited and over the top after 6 league wins and making up ground on the top 2, when can we? 

We have tough games coming up, but if we play at our best level, we can beat anyone in this league. There is every reason to be confident about our chances. 

Nothing wrong with excitement, but that should also come without cockiness. 

[Andicis]

2 minutes ago, Srg said:

Nothing wrong with excitement, but that should also come without cockiness. 

Agreed. But we should be confident in our ability to get a result wherever we go. 

[Srg]

Just now, Andicis said:

Agreed. But we should be confident in our ability to get a result wherever we go. 

Absolutely. We’ve proven we can do it. This weekend will be extremely tough, but would be an unbelievable weekend to win on looking at the other fixtures. Would take a draw though right now.

[Albert]

7 hours ago, David said:

Exactly.

Which is why this is nonsense, sorry. 

An ACL injury to a key player, lose a couple to suspensions for the play offs, another red card during, football isn’t predictable, if it was it would be super boring. 

They're not saying 'football is predictable', quite the opposite in fact. The logic here is that if you could take the World as it is now, and replay this 10,000 times, we'd go up in ~5,300 of those times. That says nothing of the how that happens, it just looks at the historical distribution of how things play out, ie it's not 'if everything says as it is, Derby go up 53% of the time', it's more considering all possibilities and quantifying how likely it is for different scenarios to play out. 

To put it another way, in the Worlds where Sheffield Wednesday finish 7th from here, it's very likely that it would be injuries to key players that precipitated that outcome. In the Worlds that Bolton go on to become Champions, it's unlikely the rest of the top 6 stayed injury free. 

[Day]

48 minutes ago, Albert said:

They're not saying 'football is predictable', quite the opposite in fact. The logic here is that if you could take the World as it is now, and replay this 10,000 times, we'd go up in ~5,300 of those times. That says nothing of the how that happens, it just looks at the historical distribution of how things play out, ie it's not 'if everything says as it is, Derby go up 53% of the time', it's more considering all possibilities and quantifying how likely it is for different scenarios to play out. 

To put it another way, in the Worlds where Sheffield Wednesday finish 7th from here, it's very likely that it would be injuries to key players that precipitated that outcome. In the Worlds that Bolton go on to become Champions, it's unlikely the rest of the top 6 stayed injury free. 

If you take the world as it is today, repeat it how many ever times, you are predicting that the same circumstances will occur which simply doesn't happen.

As you say, if Bolton won the league, something would have happened elsewhere, it's that something which is football, it's not a number, a stat, it's the performance levels of athletes with so many variables in their lives that it's literally impossible to stick a percentage chance on that holds any kind of worth.

[Carl Sagan]

1 hour ago, Albert said:

They're not saying 'football is predictable', quite the opposite in fact. The logic here is that if you could take the World as it is now, and replay this 10,000 times, we'd go up in ~5,300 of those times. That says nothing of the how that happens, it just looks at the historical distribution of how things play out, ie it's not 'if everything says as it is, Derby go up 53% of the time', it's more considering all possibilities and quantifying how likely it is for different scenarios to play out. 

To put it another way, in the Worlds where Sheffield Wednesday finish 7th from here, it's very likely that it would be injuries to key players that precipitated that outcome. In the Worlds that Bolton go on to become Champions, it's unlikely the rest of the top 6 stayed injury free. 

 

9 minutes ago, David said:

If you take the world as it is today, repeat it how many ever times, you are predicting that the same circumstances will occur which simply doesn't happen.

As you say, if Bolton won the league, something would have happened elsewhere, it's that something which is football, it's not a number, a stat, it's the performance levels of athletes with so many variables in their lives that it's literally impossible to stick a percentage chance on that holds any kind of worth.

Like doing a weather forecast, @Albertis running a Monte Carlo simulation, with the same initial conditions each time and seeing how things pan out in the remaining games. Run this 10,000 times and you might get the distribution he mentions. There are rare occurrences such as Bolton winning the league or a hurricane on Michael Fish's watch, which look unlikely so are often discounted, but occasionally do happen if a series of unlikely events unfold. It's a different outcome (sometimes by a lot, sometimes a little) in each of the simulations but running so many of them from this point gives you the likelihood of the different end points.

Edited February 5, 2023 by Carl Sagan

[alexxxxx]

I've got a horrible horrible feeling we will have to beat the wendies on the final day to get promoted 

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

44 minutes ago, alexxxxx said:

I've got a horrible horrible feeling we will have to beat the wendies on the final day to get promoted 

Plymouth probably have a horrible feeling that we'll need to win there last game and they've already been out on the lash celebrating the title, only being woken up under a pub table an hour before kick off surrounded by empty shot glasses and packets of crisps.

Talking of which, It appears Keoghs now playing regularly for Ipswich.  Wondered why they'd gone s****. 

[Kinder]

1 hour ago, alexxxxx said:

I've got a horrible horrible feeling we will have to beat the wendies on the final day to get promoted 

I’d take that.

[Foreveram]

1 minute ago, Kinder said:

I’d take that.

I don’t think my heart would.

[Magicman]

1 hour ago, alexxxxx said:

I've got a horrible horrible feeling we will have to beat the wendies on the final day to get promoted 

I think we will need to get a point .......

[walkleyowl]

2 hours ago, Andicis said:

This is the exact time to get carried away. If we can't get a little bit excited and over the top after 6 league wins and making up ground on the top 2, when can we? 

We have tough games coming up, but if we play at our best level, we can beat anyone in this league. There is every reason to be confident about our chances. 

You haven't made any ground up on us.

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by walkleyowl