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Only One Auto to play For.....Apparently.

Eatonram

By Eatonram
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Carl Sagan
Carl Sagan

Well their unbeaten and winning runs stretch longer than ours and they already had points in the bag to be well ahead of us. And even their defence is better. So I'm not surprised by their supreme con

MaltRam
MaltRam

No we haven't. It's a funny division with a lot of very limited teams, so a form team can get on a mad run and boy are our sides on a run. I think we've given you too big of a start, but on what I've

plymouthram
plymouthram

Yes I've been looking on Wednesday's forum, there is a few though that are still a little cautious. I do think though, if we were in Wednesday's position and with their form, we would be all giving it

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Carl Sagan

Carl Sagan

Posted
Posted

Well their unbeaten and winning runs stretch longer than ours and they already had points in the bag to be well ahead of us. And even their defence is better. So I'm not surprised by their supreme confidence. Which is backed up to an extent by stats guru Nate Silver who gives them an 61% chance of winning the league: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/

However, in the same analysis, we've now overtaken Ipswich as the third most likely team to be promoted with an 11% of winning the division and a 22% chance of coming second. And only a 6% chance of finishing outside of the playoffs. And the claim is with a 53% chance of promotion, we are now slightly more likely than not to go up. I would be thrilled, beyond measure, to finish second this season I tell ya.

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Tyler Durden

Tyler Durden

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Well their unbeaten and winning runs stretch longer than ours and they already had points in the bag to be well ahead of us. And even their defence is better. So I'm not surprised by their supreme confidence. Which is backed up to an extent by stats guru Nate Silver who gives them an 61% chance of winning the league: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/

However, in the same analysis, we've now overtaken Ipswich as the third most likely team to be promoted with an 11% of winning the division and a 22% chance of coming second. And only a 6% chance of finishing outside of the playoffs. And the claim is with a 53% chance of promotion, we are now slightly more likely than not to go up. I would be thrilled, beyond measure, to finish second this season I tell ya.

I never understood that stat tbf...so if we're the third most likely team to be promoted does that also factor in the results of the playoffs or does it just mean we're most likely to finish third which really is irrelevant to getting promoted as we then could fail in the playoffs...

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Chellaston Ram

Chellaston Ram

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Eatonram said:

Having a curious look on Owlstalk it seems they are home and dry, that 8 point gap with 18 games to play is irrelevent as they are now unbeatable it seems.................they could be right of course, I guess we will have to wait and see. 

It only injures to a few key players and league positions change….Chris Martin springs to mind 

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Carl Sagan

Carl Sagan

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

I never understood that stat tbf...so if we're the third most likely team to be promoted does that also factor in the results of the playoffs or does it just mean we're most likely to finish third which really is irrelevant to getting promoted as we then could fail in the playoffs...

Yes it also factors in the likelihood of us going up in the playoffs from the playoff results. For instance, looking at it I think it's saying:

  • If Wendies make the playoffs, they have a 24% chance of winning them
  • If Plymouth make the playoffs, they have a 16% chance of winning them
  • If we make the playoffs, we have a 33% chance of winning them
  • If Ipswich make the playoffs, they have a 24% chance of winning them
  • If Bolton make the playoffs, they have a 26% chance of winning them
  • If Barnsley make the playoffs, they have a 24% chance of winning them
  • If Wycombe make the playoffs, they have a 31% chance of winning them (but less certain of that number as there are likely rounding errors creeping in at this point).

And so on. So they're mainly saying the playoffs are a lottery except for us and for Plymouth, for different reasons. 

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David

David

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Chellaston Ram said:

It only takes injuries to a few key players and league positions can change 

Exactly.

29 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Yes it also factors in the likelihood of us going up in the playoffs from the playoff results. For instance, looking at it I think it's saying:

  • If Wendies make the playoffs, they have a 24% chance of winning them
  • If Plymouth make the playoffs, they have a 16% chance of winning them
  • If we make the playoffs, we have a 33% chance of winning them
  • If Ipswich make the playoffs, they have a 24% chance of winning them
  • If Bolton make the playoffs, they have a 26% chance of winning them
  • If Barnsley make the playoffs, they have a 24% chance of winning them
  • If Wycombe make the playoffs, they have a 31% chance of winning them (but less certain of that number as there are likely rounding errors creeping in at this point).

And so on. So they're mainly saying the playoffs are a lottery except for us and for Plymouth, for different reasons. 

Which is why this is nonsense, sorry. 

An ACL injury to a key player, lose a couple to suspensions for the play offs, another red card during, football isn’t predictable, if it was it would be super boring. 

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PistoldPete

PistoldPete

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Yes it also factors in the likelihood of us going up in the playoffs from the playoff results. For instance, looking at it I think it's saying:

  • If Wendies make the playoffs, they have a 24% chance of winning them
  • If Plymouth make the playoffs, they have a 16% chance of winning them
  • If we make the playoffs, we have a 33% chance of winning them
  • If Ipswich make the playoffs, they have a 24% chance of winning them
  • If Bolton make the playoffs, they have a 26% chance of winning them
  • If Barnsley make the playoffs, they have a 24% chance of winning them
  • If Wycombe make the playoffs, they have a 31% chance of winning them (but less certain of that number as there are likely rounding errors creeping in at this point).

And so on. So they're mainly saying the playoffs are a lottery except for us and for Plymouth, for different reasons. 

So the logic would be if we (or Wycombe) make the playoffs we are likely to do so in good form, but if Plymouth make the playoffs they are likely to do so in bad form, otherwise they would have got automatic promotion?  

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PistoldPete

PistoldPete

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Carl Sagan said:

Well their unbeaten and winning runs stretch longer than ours and they already had points in the bag to be well ahead of us. And even their defence is better. So I'm not surprised by their supreme confidence. Which is backed up to an extent by stats guru Nate Silver who gives them an 61% chance of winning the league: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/

However, in the same analysis, we've now overtaken Ipswich as the third most likely team to be promoted with an 11% of winning the division and a 22% chance of coming second. And only a 6% chance of finishing outside of the playoffs. And the claim is with a 53% chance of promotion, we are now slightly more likely than not to go up. I would be thrilled, beyond measure, to finish second this season I tell ya.

Yeah you produced this chart a week or so ago and it had us on 84 points.. now 87. Keep it up Rams and you never know , but I do think we will need more than 90 points to go up unless Plymouth really start to implode. 

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Kernow

Kernow

Posted
Posted

We’re close to hitting our first milestone of overtaking Ipswich. We can then set our sights towards second place, but there’s plenty of chances for us and Ipswich to keep swapping places during the chase. I don’t think they’ll drop off so much that we propel out of touch of them.

In the last 5 games we’ve made up 7 points on Plymouth. Two of their key players, Cooper and Scarr went off injured yesterday, I’m not sure how long they’ll be ruled out for but their fans seem to think it’ll ruin their chances if it’s an extended period.

That’s the same for us though. Max Bird is an important player but luckily his injury was during the transfer window so we could get someone else in. Any other  key injuries now and we could find the end of the season a bit of a slog to stay in the top 6.

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Sparkle

Sparkle

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Posted

I would be very happy if Sheffield Wednesday won the league at a canter so long as we were second ! 
we are reaching a point where injuries and suspensions are starting to bite for all teams which can make the poorer teams increasingly weaker 

we have lost our on pitch captain for 6-8 weeks from central midfield in Max Bird 

Plymouth yesterday lost their centre half and time will tell if that affects them but they also lost their goalkeeper who they claim is their best player for possibly a little while - now if your goalkeeper is your best player you have a lot of other weaknesses you should be more worried about. 

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sage

sage

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sparkle said:

I would be very happy if Sheffield Wednesday won the league at a canter so long as we were second ! 
we are reaching a point where injuries and suspensions are starting to bite for all teams which can make the poorer teams increasingly weaker 

we have lost our on pitch captain for 6-8 weeks from central midfield in Max Bird 

Plymouth yesterday lost their centre half and time will tell if that affects them but they also lost their goalkeeper who they claim is their best player for possibly a little while - now if your goalkeeper is your best player you have a lot of other weaknesses you should be more worried about. 

Yep. If their keeper is out for the rest of the season, we have a real chance of catching them 

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Carl Sagan

Carl Sagan

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, David said:

Exactly.

Which is why this is nonsense, sorry. 

An ACL injury to a key player, lose a couple to suspensions for the play offs, another red card during, football isn’t predictable, if it was it would be super boring. 

Don't be such a misery! How can you not love poring over stats? Even though football isn't predictable, I still love it when we're predicted to do well.

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Woodley Ram

Woodley Ram

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Eatonram said:

Having a curious look on Owlstalk it seems they are home and dry, that 8 point gap with 18 games to play is irrelevent as they are now unbeatable it seems.................they could be right of course, I guess we will have to wait and see. 

To be fair I expect them to be promoted and still cannot see anyone other than Plymouth and SWFC being in the top two. However chickens, count not. As people have already said, bad run for 3 or 4 games, injuries, poor ref decision.  We have gone on a good run, so will others. League 1 is too tight to mention.

For us, I think we should be OK for playoffs but still have a chance for automatic promotion, although playoffs more likely. Again form, injuries, refs etc.   

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David

David

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Don't be such a misery! How can you not love poring over stats? Even though football isn't predictable, I still love it when we're predicted to do well.

Means nowt, just like bookie odds.

Prefer to read journalists gushing articles over how we're playing, opposition fans praising our team.

Much better than some nerd with a calculator trying to make football results a scientific formula.

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