Poll: what's going to happen?

[IslandExile]

Kirchner's out.

Binnies are out.

We don't know if the Appleby consortium, Ashley or any late entrants are still bidding for the club.

Based on what we do know - next to nothing - what do you think will happen to our great club?

Edited March 10, 2022 by IslandExile

[Ellafella]

My gut feel and not based on any evidence or firm reasoning:

1. Club will be bought eventually but at very low price.

2. Current players will all disappear to balance books.

3. Relegation to L1 & 15 point deduction next year.

4. Bare bones & remnant shell of a Club next season.

5. If the rot stops there, we can effectively begin again.

Sorry to be pessimistic but clearly the protracted nature of it all tells the story.

Lets though stay positive because that’s what ultimately keeps the Club going. A season or 2 of bare survival but we come back stronger in 3 years. Look at Luton. Keep the faith. It’s what makes the City a footballing hotbed.

[IslandExile]

1 minute ago, Ellafella said:

My gut feel and not based on any evidence or firm reasoning:

1. Club will be bought eventually but at very low price.

2. Current players will all disappear to balance books.

3. Relegation to L1 & 15 point deduction next year.

4. Bare bones & remnant shell of a Club next season.

5. If the rot stops there, we can effectively begin again.

Sorry to be pessimistic but clearly the protracted nature of it all tells the story.

Lets though stay positive because that’s what ultimately keeps the Club going. A season or 2 of bare survival but we come back stronger in 3 years. Look at Luton. Keep the faith. It’s what makes the City a footballing hotbed.

I'm afraid I agree with you.

I don't even think you're being pessimistic. Right now, that's just about the best we can hope for - survival.

I'm getting old now though - I don't want too many (more) years in the doldrums. 

[Rammy03]

13 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

My gut feel and not based on any evidence or firm reasoning:

1. Club will be bought eventually but at very low price.

2. Current players will all disappear to balance books.

3. Relegation to L1 & 15 point deduction next year.

4. Bare bones & remnant shell of a Club next season.

5. If the rot stops there, we can effectively begin again.

Sorry to be pessimistic but clearly the protracted nature of it all tells the story.

Lets though stay positive because that’s what ultimately keeps the Club going. A season or 2 of bare survival but we come back stronger in 3 years. Look at Luton. Keep the faith. It’s what makes the City a footballing hotbed.

That is the worst case scenario. I truly hope something better happens. 

[IslandExile]

1 minute ago, Rammy03 said:

That is the worst case scenario. I truly hope something better happens. 

We all hope something better happens.

But that's not the worst case scenario, that would be liquidation.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

4 minutes ago, IslandExile said:

Kirchner's out.

Binnies are out.

We don't know if the Appleby consortium, Ashley or any late entrants are still bidding for the club.

Based on what we do know - next to nothing - what do you think will happen to our great club?

I know as I've suggested since day 1 that a 25 million pound bid outside the stadium inclusion should be easily achievable and would be acceptable to creditors to clear enough off what's owed, with some further payments attached over a 2-3 year cycle- probably a total of 30 million.  Also that any buyer would want the stadium as that's the biggest asset.  That could be achieved on an agreed lease over a number of years, say 5, to clear the loans attached and then handover.   With the income the club brings in I'm non plussed. There is no huge complication to this.  The Middlesbrough case and inaction by our governing body to put them in place immediately was an issue.  There should be none now unless Morris is demanding all that's owed to MSD upfront. No one will give 50 million upfront for the club in it's current state.  If that's what they want, it must include payment for Morris and them and Mel will be growing spuds on Pride Park, it's already looking like an allotment.  If Morris is willing to clear 10 million of the MSD loan himself - or a Bradley Johnson with 2 years wages in old money - there's still a chance. 

I do wonder whether the ' Mel Morris owning the stadium won't be an issue' is now past tense as he may be looking for the money in case his accord with Gibson results in a pay out. 

[uttoxram75]

Whats gonna happen in the short term is that new posters are going to come on here pretending to be Derby Fans and let us know that our downfall is imminent and we have no chance of surviving and HMRC are going to shut us down.

They can all feck off.

My views are not necessarily those of the forum owners.

 

When you walk into Derby

your heart will skip a beat

you'll get your feckin heads kicked in as you walk down Shaftesbury Street

you'll walk into the Popside and hear a mighty roar

feck off you forest bass tards, we are the Derby boys.

 

Welcome to new posters by the way ?

[Day]

Nobody on here would be able to confidently predict what the outcome of private negotiations will be.

What I would say is, I can’t believe that any of the interested bidders would seriously be looking to take over with a -15 point deduction next season.

My own personal situation aside, I just find it bizarre when there is no compulsory purchase of the club why they wouldn’t prefer to satisfy the minimum requirement of the creditors and look to purchase the stadium further down the line if they don’t have the funds to complete both purchases now.

Which would also raise concerns that if they cannot find that money now, what will the future look like in terms of investment to rebuild and move forward.

So with that I’m happy that talks with the Binnies have ended.

My guess and it is a complete guess, Mike Ashley is the front runner however he’s trying to get Quantuma and Mel Morris to take less money, reducing the full purchase price. Ashley would want the stadium to plaster Sport Direct branding all over it, Lee Charnley has probably been round with a tape measure already.

To be honest, at this point I’m just interested in what is happening on the pitch, fears of liquidation have gone now the Steve Gibson shaped obstacle has been removed and having just turned away the Binnies which would have been better than nothing, I will sleep better…..whilst aware that there is still the potential for all this to go pear shaped. 

It’s been a rough few months and just want to enjoy some football now.

[Yani P]

I think takeover will complete early next season, no 15 point penalty.

[PistoldPete]

6 hours ago, David said:

Nobody on here would be able to confidently predict what the outcome of private negotiations will be.

What I would say is, I can’t believe that any of the interested bidders would seriously be looking to take over with a -15 point deduction next season.

My own personal situation aside, I just find it bizarre when there is no compulsory purchase of the club why they wouldn’t prefer to satisfy the minimum requirement of the creditors and look to purchase the stadium further down the line if they don’t have the funds to complete both purchases now.

Which would also raise concerns that if they cannot find that money now, what will the future look like in terms of investment to rebuild and move forward.

So with that I’m happy that talks with the Binnies have ended.

My guess and it is a complete guess, Mike Ashley is the front runner however he’s trying to get Quantuma and Mel Morris to take less money, reducing the full purchase price. Ashley would want the stadium to plaster Sport Direct branding all over it, Lee Charnley has probably been round with a tape measure already.

To be honest, at this point I’m just interested in what is happening on the pitch, fears of liquidation have gone now the Steve Gibson shaped obstacle has been removed and having just turned away the Binnies which would have been better than nothing, I will sleep better…..whilst aware that there is still the potential for all this to go pear shaped. 

It’s been a rough few months and just want to enjoy some football now.

I think Binnie’s last offer was worth less than  nothing at all to the club. £30 million offer includes a stadium we do not own and which is worth a lot more than £30 million. So they value the club at a lot less than zero. 

once Msd were paid off there may not be enough left out of £30 million to pay football creditors and Quantuma fees. If  So we would lose League status as well. 

it is quite possible that liquidation of the club would have been a better option for the creditors, leaving Mel to pick up the tab with Msd. 

it realtors isn’t worth thinking about that we have to assume there are better offers than that hopefully much better offers.
 

 

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

5 hours ago, Yani P said:

I think takeover will complete early next season, no 15 point penalty.

A bit vague, call it 48 hours

[AndyinLiverpool]

7 hours ago, Rammy03 said:

That is the worst case scenario. I truly hope something better happens. 

No. Worse would be that current players disappear at the end of their contracts and the club gets nothing.

[Tamworthram]

7 hours ago, Ellafella said:

My gut feel and not based on any evidence or firm reasoning:

1. Club will be bought eventually but at very low price.

2. Current players will all disappear to balance books.

3. Relegation to L1 & 15 point deduction next year.

4. Bare bones & remnant shell of a Club next season.

5. If the rot stops there, we can effectively begin again.

Sorry to be pessimistic but clearly the protracted nature of it all tells the story.

Lets though stay positive because that’s what ultimately keeps the Club going. A season or 2 of bare survival but we come back stronger in 3 years. Look at Luton. Keep the faith. It’s what makes the City a footballing hotbed.

I agree. Effectively a combination of options 2 and 3 (so I couldn’t real vote for either). A low over, resulting in further points deductions, but not finalised until just before the start of next season (or even into the season).

[Sparkle]

No idea what’s going to happen but if you were buying then why offer a large amount so simply offer the smallest possible and rent the stadium and if were to avoid a -15 point deduction great but if we don’t what difference does it make as the new owners are only going to be getting income from the paying fans who will or will not attend in the future.

[Igorwasking]

If I was bidding I would slow the process down to see what division we would be in next season. It makes a huge difference to year one revenues.

That said - we are preparing for next season. We’ve already put the binnies out (I’ll get my coat)

[Ellafella]

8 hours ago, Rammy03 said:

That is the worst case scenario. I truly hope something better happens. 

So do I …but my gut says we will be virtually toast. 

[I am Ram]

I don't know, I'm starting to believe nobody does, including Q.

[seths-cap]

Elon Musk decides to take us over, inserts chips into every players head, downloads the knowledge of the worlds greatest players into our first team, we p!ss the league for the next 20 years until we realise the Mayan calendar was 30 years out and the world ends.

[Dimmu]

I sometimes do scenarios for my living but this one really is difficult:

Best case scenario:
New, wealthy owner announced this season, we tie up all the contracs we want, we don't get relegated, academy keep its status, stadium belongs to club.

Worst case scenario:
This is a tough one. Phoenix club? (I'm so pissed of with the professional football, that I'm not sure is that really a bad thing...) Dropping to League 1 with -15 points and still in admin when next season starts? With a team full of journeyman? It really is weird situation, when you don't know what's the worst case scenario.

Most realistic scenario: Most likely somewhere between worst and best. It's another tough one as there's not enough data to really know. Relegation, new owner at the end of the transfer window, not too much money for a rebuild, Bird, Bielik and Knight sold, leased stadium and academy status remains intact? I think I'd take it.

One thing always works: Aim for the best, prepare for the worst. 

[Ken Tram]

What is the estimated difference in price between an exit from administration with a 15 point deduction, and with a zero point deduction?

It is not obvious to me that a buyer would obviously avoid the 15 point deduction.

Firstly, they may take a long term view.

Secondly, they would have £x million saved up that they could spend.