Season 21 - 22 survival bid statistics

[Steadybreeze]

13 minutes ago, Ram1988 said:

Fulham certainly did us a favour tonight as Reading certainly got a drumming.

Not sure this is such a great result. They have a talented squad that's in a mess mainly due to the manager. This is the kind of result that will see him sacked, a new manager bounce will probably see them out of reach!

[Ghost of Clough]

I posted this prior to the additional points deduction so figured I'd update it.

On 09/11/2021 at 10:37, Ghost of Clough said:

46 points is the target for the end of the season at this point.

We'll be 25 games into the season by the time we get to Jan, with 21 left to play. My target would be 18, but as long as we have at least 15 points by then we're in with a reasonable chance - leaving us to chase about 30 points for the 2nd half of the season. 

A lot depends on the points deductions. Any more taken away and we'll be facing a very difficult task, but if we do end up with less then I'll be extremely optimistic. 

So far we're averaging about 1 point per game. With a young squad (except just a few) I am also hopefully that we get stronger as the season goes on. This is boosted by influential players returning from injury (Bielik) and others improving their match fitness (Knight, Kazim, Baldock). Who knows, maybe we'll be able to add a couple of players in January if the embargo is lifted. This means a gradual increase from the current 1 ppg, ending the season with a 1.5 ppg rolling average.

As I have no life, I've modelled an example (below). [Red line being the current moment in time, dotted line being the 6 game rolling average)

First half of the season: 4W, 6L
Second half of the season: 7W, 5L

On paper, that doesn't look too unreasonable IMO.

9 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses would take us to 45 points. This is the equivalent to us maintaining our form over the past 9 games (4W, 3D, 2L) for the rest of the season.
During that good run, we've had  to deal with matches being postponed, players missing due to Covid and experienced players being injured. With players still to return to fitness and others from injury, the youngsters continuing to improve and us looking likely to sign players, I see no reason why we cannot do it! ?

[Ken Tram]

21 hours ago, DCFC1388 said:

The current bottom 6 - 

Hull - P24 - 23pts

Cardiff - P24 - 23pts

Reading - P24 - 22pts (28 really)

P'Boro - P23 - 19pts

Barnsley - P24 - 14pts

Derby - P25 - 11pts (32 really)

Now based off that, and their current ppg, if that continues for the remaining games the bottom 6 would be (based off current goal difference) - 

Reading - 48pts (54 really)

Hull - 44pts

Cardiff - 44pts

Derby - 38pts (59 really)

P'Boro - 38pts

Barnsley - 27pts

So we would be 6pts from safety. With the home games we have and hopefully maybe some feel good factor with a new owner & Bielik back we could make up those 6pts.

Also, imo I feel like Hull wont have as good a 2nd half a season as they have the first...at least that is what I am hoping. They lose 1 extra game & we win 1 extra thats the 6pts on them.

Be careful projecting PPG without looking at integer numbers of games won and drawn, because it can under predict target points. This is because we either win, draw or lose; and we do not actually get decimal fractions of points in each game.

For example, take the percentage of games won so far this season for a given club; and then applying that percentage to the remaining games. You are likely to get a decimal fraction number of wins, which you need to round up or down. Likewise with the draws. Rounding up and down can give a different target number of points, compared with just using PPG. 

I do like the use of the season as a whole: as a predictor of final points tallies!

[24Charlie]

We have to play Cardiff twice. Including on the last day. If we can get within 3 points of them by then it could make for one hell of a showdown at Pride Park.

if you look at it that way then we only have 9 points to make up on them.

[Jram]

I know this is horribly pessimistic and I bring no stats to this stats-based thread but I think sometime soon we will lose 4 and draw 2 of six games (or something like that) and all hope will be gone. I sincerely hope im wrong but it almost feels inevitable to my battered mind 

[Ghost of Clough]

40 minutes ago, Jram said:

I know this is horribly pessimistic and I bring no stats to this stats-based thread but I think sometime soon we will lose 4 and draw 2 of six games (or something like that) and all hope will be gone. I sincerely hope im wrong but it almost feels inevitable to my battered mind 

We've only lost 2 in a row twice this season - Blackburn Barnsley, and QPR Bristol.

[Brammie Steve]

As well as losing to non League Kidderminster on Saturday Reading we’re beaten 7-0 by Fulham on Tuesday night at home!

Derby’s recent form is causing several teams to be looking over their shoulder now.

Steve McQueen failed on his motorbike but the Rams are looking pretty good for a team starting on minus 21!

COYR

 

 

[Derbyram1983]

The 6 pointers are massive. Barnsley, Peterborough, Cardiff. Definitely need to be winning these games 

[Amberram]

1 hour ago, Brammie Steve said:

As well as losing to non League Kidderminster on Saturday Reading we’re beaten 7-0 by Fulham on Tuesday night at home!

Derby’s recent form is causing several teams to be looking over their shoulder now.

Steve McQueen failed on his motorbike but the Rams are looking pretty good for a team starting on minus 21!

COYR

 

 

Are Reading the barbed wire fence we have to jump over then

 

 

[I know nuffin]

15 hours ago, Brammie Steve said:

As well as losing to non League Kidderminster on Saturday Reading we’re beaten 7-0 by Fulham on Tuesday night at home!

Derby’s recent form is causing several teams to be looking over their shoulder now.

Steve McQueen failed on his motorbike but the Rams are looking pretty good for a team starting on minus 21!

COYR

 

 

In cricket they call it score board pressure

[Quagga]

2 minutes ago, I know nuffin said:

In cricket they call it score board pressure

It's got to be difficult hasn't it, other than Reading, you know you're down there on merit, and you know that Derby is there for completely different reasons. so whilst we're 10-15 points behind no one cares, as soon as it gets to 5 or so it's squeaky bum time.

It's the complete opposite of the promotion race where you expect everyone else around to win their games, so you have to win to stay still. Down here, on balance teams will regularly lose, so a team coming into form and taking 10 points out of 12 is a really scary prospect.

I suspect their main hope, is we have to sell everyone this month

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

16 hours ago, Derbyram1983 said:

The 6 pointers are massive. Barnsley, Peterborough, Cardiff. Definitely need to be winning these games 

What made the Reading result frustrating when said and done .  Euphoria from the last 5 mins but that gap could be 8 points now,  As for Barnsley and Peterborough away. 

[Jram]

18 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

We've only lost 2 in a row twice this season - Blackburn Barnsley, and QPR Bristol.

I didn’t mean on the bounce necessarily… just one of those gritty months where we pick up 2 points which we can usually swallow in a normal season but will kill us in this one 

Heart says playoffs though 

[I know nuffin]

4 hours ago, Quagga said:

It's got to be difficult hasn't it, other than Reading, you know you're down there on merit, and you know that Derby is there for completely different reasons. so whilst we're 10-15 points behind no one cares, as soon as it gets to 5 or so it's squeaky bum time.

It's the complete opposite of the promotion race where you expect everyone else around to win their games, so you have to win to stay still. Down here, on balance teams will regularly lose, so a team coming into form and taking 10 points out of 12 is a really scary prospect.

I suspect their main hope, is we have to sell everyone this month

Said before beat the teams above us when we play them and win just 3 more than they do, remembering they are teams on a bad run

[Albert]

Our position is actually starting to look reasonable. 

We're off the bottom, and are on 14 points from 26. Spreading the points deduction per game, we're really on ~23 points right now, and each result includes -0.46 points. That would see us out of the drop zone, though other clubs have games in hand. 

The reality is though, if the damage to the squad in the last few days doesn't harm us too much, we're in an unbelievable position given what's happened. FiveThirtyEight now rate us as 37% to stay up. Unbelievable stuff from the side.

No wonder the EFL's campaign against us has stepped up. 

[Bobby]

4 minutes ago, Albert said:

Our position is actually starting to look reasonable. 

We're off the bottom, and are on 14 points from 26. Spreading the points deduction per game, we're really on ~23 points right now, and each result includes -0.46 points. That would see us out of the drop zone, though other clubs have games in hand. 

The reality is though, if the damage to the squad in the last few days doesn't harm us too much, we're in an unbelievable position given what's happened. FiveThirtyEight now rate us as 37% to stay up. Unbelievable stuff from the side.

No wonder the EFL's campaign against us has stepped up. 

I was laughing at this thread a few weeks back, look like I could have egg on my face!

I reckon you could possibly do this. (EFL allowing) 

If you do then no one can have any complaints, you’ve been punished and defied the odds. Well played.

[Yani P]

If we keep the squad together we will stay up I am certain of that..on the handicap chart we are actually out of the relegation places..on the last season tracker we are totally on track..every Stat pointer I run says we are staying up.

[SamUltraRam]

We have 10 home games left, 7 of them are against teams currently in the bottom 10

[Mckram]

I’d be pretty confident if we could keep this team and bring in a few more.

Yes the current team could probably do it, but it only takes a few injuries and we’d be scraping the barrel.

[alexxxxx]

Imagine if it came down to Cardiff at home final day of the season... Like Wednesday last season.