Yani P Posted November 28, 2021 Author Share Posted November 28, 2021 A few of those are in pretty dire form..im hoping over the next 10 games or so more will get dragged into the fight at the bottom..Hull and Cardiff are in top 10 form right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mucker1884 Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 9 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said: How about 3rd bottom, considering it's that total we'd need to beat, rather than match 4th from bottom I like your thinking. ? Good to see some positivity on here for a change! ? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich84 Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 8 hours ago, Yani P said: A few of those are in pretty dire form..im hoping over the next 10 games or so more will get dragged into the fight at the bottom..Hull and Cardiff are in top 10 form right now. That doesn't make encouraging reading, over the last 5 we have only made ground on 4 teams, but 2 of those, Luton and Blackpool are a long way ahead, we simply have to win on Monday, no questions, but the last 2 results, especially with the opposition surely puts the lads in a confident frame of mind, time to kick on now, I'd rather go on a spell of win lose win lose than anymore draws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comrade 86 Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 On 25/11/2021 at 21:42, Bris Vegas said: Should still go, absolutely, to cheer on the lads. Same as I’m still paying the Rams TV sub. I’m still supporting the team, but we are going down. It’s like being in the Premier League for somebody like Southampton. They know they’re not going to ever win the PL, but fans still go regardless. I’m looking forward to us smashing League One next season. On 25/11/2021 at 15:43, Bris Vegas said: Our 2016/17 side would have gone down with a 21 point deduction. And that team had players like Will Hughes, Tom Ince, Matej Vydra, Craig Bryson, Jonny Russell and David Nugent in it. That side won 18 games that season, won more than they lost and had a positive GD. Our current side has won just four games in 19. Lost more than they’ve won. Has a negative GD and is primarily made up of kids, old players and freebies. We were down with -12 points. Now we’re just fighting to end up with a respectable points tally. Anything over 30 from this point on would be a decent achievement. Are you an only child Bris? Asking for a friend... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 This tracker against last season going into an interesting period - last season we achieved 6 wins from the next 8 games - if we get even close to that we are 100% staying up.. I know nuffin and BucksRam 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 this is our current handicap points position (where the 21 point deduction is spread over all 46 games) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mucker1884 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 (edited) Extrapolating the 10 points now on the board from the minus 21 points we effectively started with, it resembles a big fat F U to The EFL... ... unless my calculations are amiss? ? Edited December 31, 2021 by Mucker1884 Ken Tram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 We're at about the half way point of the season. Looking at the bottom 6 clubs, if each continues with the PPG they've averaged so far over the season, the final table would be: Reading (56.4-6=) 50.4 points Hull 46 Cardiff 44 Derby (59.4-21=) 38.4 Peterborough 38 Barnsley 26.8 However, if we extrapolate the PPG for each team's last 10 matches over the remaining 22-24 games: Hull 55.2 Cardiff 47.3 Derby (61.8-21=) 40.8 Reading (46.2-6=) 40.2 Peterborough 37.4 Barnsley 27.2 Which shows how important Monday's game could be. The great escape is on. COYR Carnero 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I know nuffin Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 28/11/2021 at 03:02, Yani P said: A few of those are in pretty dire form..im hoping over the next 10 games or so more will get dragged into the fight at the bottom..Hull and Cardiff are in top 10 form right now. Thought we had won the last 3 matches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, I know nuffin said: Thought we had won the last 3 matches That post was in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Tram Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 21 hours ago, Yani P said: this is our current handicap points position (where the 21 point deduction is spread over all 46 games) I had missed these posts. Do you mind explaining (again) how to read this handicapped points chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 (edited) It's the points we actually get first..them a deduction per game (21 points divided by 46 games) its rounded up but in the cell it's to many decimal places..then revised points after that GW deduction.will update with last night's result as we are up to 20 points ish.. Edited December 31, 2021 by Yani P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just Over Halfway - Review of where we are... Firstly, how fantastic have the boys been, the fight is there and there is more than just hope - they are playing like they know they could be making a little bit of history this season. Still a big task but i'm still confident we will stay up, never thought otherwise to be honest unless the takeover stalled and we had to fire sale. i will put one chart per post to make it easier to digest. one thing to call out just to highlight the task ahead. We need to get to at least net 46 points looking at the data right now - hopefully it will drop slightly but at this moment my guess is it could even go slightly higher. That means we needed at least 39 points in the 2nd half of the season - a feat we have only managed once since we were relegated from the Premier league (2013-14 with 41 points). We were close in Cocu's season (38) so I firmly believe this is achievable. We usually have a horror run 2nd half of every season - so we avoid that we stay up..simple as that. Chart 1 is the handicap chart where the 21 points deduction is split across all 46 games. based on that, our reality position after 24 matches is just over 20 points - so really right in the mix (obviously every game we lose circa. 0.46 points so its the wins we need). ram59 and LeedsCityRam 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Chart 2 is where I split the season into 4 parts to track against last season - the logic being if we can beat that by at least 23 points we could well be safe. So I was looking for positive trends, hopefully highlighting where we can get those points back. So, in the first 17 game segment we were 15 points back (obviously down to the -21 deduction), in the 6 game segment taking us to halfway we gained another 3 so the gap is now 12 points. The key segment is the one we are in now. last season we won 6 of 8 so 18 points out of 24 available. We could struggle to match or beat that but the closer we get to it the better our chances in the 4th section where we really should see a massive improvement on last season. So far we have matched segment 3 after 1 game 3 points v 3 points. Long may that continue !! Segment 4 was so poor last season its where we should fly - I mean 7 points from 15 games, so it all depends on how well we do in segment 3 really, then we will know exactly what is required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ram59 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 hours ago, Yani P said: Just Over Halfway - Review of where we are... Firstly, how fantastic have the boys been, the fight is there and there is more than just hope - they are playing like they know they could be making a little bit of history this season. Still a big task but i'm still confident we will stay up, never thought otherwise to be honest unless the takeover stalled and we had to fire sale. i will put one chart per post to make it easier to digest. one thing to call out just to highlight the task ahead. We need to get to at least net 46 points looking at the data right now - hopefully it will drop slightly but at this moment my guess is it could even go slightly higher. That means we needed at least 39 points in the 2nd half of the season - a feat we have only managed once since we were relegated from the Premier league (2013-14 with 41 points). We were close in Cocu's season (38) so I firmly believe this is achievable. We usually have a horror run 2nd half of every season - so we avoid that we stay up..simple as that. Chart 1 is the handicap chart where the 21 points deduction is split across all 46 games. based on that, our reality position after 24 matches is just over 20 points - so really right in the mix (obviously every game we lose circa. 0.46 points so its the wins we need). That's an excellent way of viewing the situation Yani. If you were to put us on 20.04 points after 24 games in the current league table, Peterbrough and Barnsley are effectively below us and Hull, Reading and Cardiff are only a couple of extra wins away from us. Looking at the table this way makes the task look a lot more achievable. Yani P 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gee SCREAMER !! Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 We're probably 20.8% of the way to survival. We've hit 18.7 % of that in 3 games. Do that in the next 3 we're pretty much 40% there. With 19 games to go. Draw 3 and its 6.25% Stick that your tactics board Wayne. Just go for the jugular is the one and only hope. TigerTedd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 (edited) chart 3 looks at our progress toward 67 points (net 46) which is the current projected safe zone. we are now only on a -8 deviation against that target, so again just shows how a few wins really do make a massive difference. So we need 36 points from 22 games 1.64 ppg. Not easy by any stretch but with our form I really do believe we will do it. Edited January 1, 2022 by Yani P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 (edited) Chart 4 graphically shows how we fare in games, how often we are ahead then draw or lose etc etc. stoke provided only the 2nd game where we have been pegged back and gone on to win - positive signs as the previous one was Bournemouth where we were pegged back and then went behind before winning - both are in fairly recent times so a good omen for the remainder of the season where we will need to fight back for points. Edited January 1, 2022 by Yani P LeedsRam1999 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ram-Alf Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I'm more confident now than I was at the begining of December, As we all know football is a results business, Hull went on a run and got out of the bottom 3, We've strung 3 wins on the bounce, Not only has it given the supporter hope but I believe the players as well. Confidence is a huge factor, Against Stoke we were confident to be on the front foot from the off, I don't want to over praise Thompson but my has he done well in the middle of the park, Does all the ugly things, Tackle, Foot in, Get the ball and give it, These type of players often go unoticed, Huge respect to a player so young. A win on Monday and...well ? angieram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnero Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 stretches of W5 D3 L3 and we get to 46 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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